Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/29/21

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, let’s chat.

Greg: Who has a better chance of winning a World series in the next decade – Cubs or Pirates?

Ben Clemens: Oh, definitely the Cubs. They spend quite a bit more, and even if we think their fortunes aren’t great today, that just matters a lot in the long run. The Pirates are going to have to prove that they’re willing to supplement a core team with some spending before I start believing.

Greg: Prior to Mitch Keller’s most recent start (and maybe still after) he has been the worst pitcher in MLB in ST. He has failed to take a step forward with his command and seems to be missing some of his bat missing ability that he at least had when he finished last year with 11 no-hit innings. How worried should Pirates fans be?

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t be terribly worried about his ST starts, b/c it’s just not terribly indicative of regular season performance. For what it’s worth, his zone rate in spring training is higher than it was last year, and his velo looks roughly unchnaged

Ben Clemens: I’m as interested in Keller as I was at the end of last season — which is to say I think he’s intriguing but high-risk

BettsBellingerCaruso: Is there a better description of a player’s physique as someone on reddit saying Max Muncy looks like a groomsman at every midwestern wedding?

Ben Clemens: As an attender of many midwestern weddings, that seems perfect

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Ben Clemens: Getting it early this year! I love it

Derek: Are FG positional power rankings assignments given at random? If so, which position were you most hoping to get?

Ben Clemens: They’re assigned — I dunno if it’s random or not, but I was really hoping for shortstop and got it

Ben Clemens: Pitching is a lot of work, just because you need to look through so many names, but it’s kinda fun too

Guest: Is there data to suggest that a prospect struggling in the majors is less likely to succeed long term than having success in the minors and only moving up then? Teams like the Indians sign guys like Cesar Hernandez to play 2B when 4 of their top 10 prospects are middle infielders.. if they know they’re out of the hunt, does it statistically make any sense to promote them early?

Ben Clemens: I have yet to see any such data, but there’s solid data (read: counting) that leaving your prospects down longer makes them cost less in the long run

Ben Clemens: and I think Cleveland is VERY interested in that research

Ben Clemens: I mean, many teams are

Ben Clemens: But they are too

Greg: Word on the street is you are a co-op board game fan. Best 2 player games for people new to the hobby? Looking for low barrier to entry and high replayability as key factors.

Ben Clemens: This is a good game as either 2 or 4, but Forbidden Island. My wife and I also really enjoy Aeon’s End, and the Marvel game (Legendary) is a good one if you’re into marvel comics

Ben Clemens: If you’re more the word game type, Letter Jam is really replayable and quite fun

Jason: The A’s bullpen is projected to pitch the 10th most innings with the 11th best FIP (10th ERA) and yet are 20th in WAR rankings. Why is that? I thought fWAR was FIP based.

Ben Clemens: It’s also park-adjusted, which is my guess for why

Jason: All reports out of spring are that Jed Lowrie is legitimately healthy. But the projection systems don’t know that and just see a 37yo who hasn’t played in two years. Would the 3rd year ZIPS from the end of 2018 be a better forecast of his 2021 ability? Where can I find old 3 year ZIPS projections?

Ben Clemens: Your best bet might be Googling them, but I’m not sure that looking at what he did three years ago works all that well… he’s been existing in the meantime, and not seeing live reps, and so on

Ben Clemens: I do agree that projection systems are going to struggle with him, but it’s just going to be a really hard problem oerall

Ben Clemens: Oh sorry, misread this. I don’t think Dan was releasing 3 year ZiPS in 2018, so I dunno where you’ll be able to find those

Numpty: Hi Ben, what sort of value would there be to a two true outcome hitter who both walks and strikes out at a 50% rate?

Ben Clemens: The lazy way is to look at each one’s linear weights, and they’d be an above average hitter based on that. In practice, a player like that is going to make linear weights weird, but I think they’d still be valuable. Slot them at leadoff, and be willing to pinch hit for them with runners on late

Guest: Top 3 candidates for signing extensions by Opening Day? How many do you think we’ll see overall? Seems like that domain is moving a bit slower than usual this year

Ben Clemens: I think Lindor has to be #1; the leaked report that he and Cohen were having dinner and talking extension feels like a setup

Ben Clemens: After that, I’m not really sure, I’d rather just wait a few days and find out, you know?

BettsBellingerCaruso: Which team’s rotation do you think will perform over the FG projections?

or alternatively, which teams do you think have the highest gap between the 25th & 75th percentile projections?

Has to be the Yankees or the Braves right?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think that the Yankees have to be number 1 for the second question

Ben Clemens: Along with the Red Sox, who are also very injury-risky

Ben Clemens: The Braves are interesting as a choice, but I’m pretty down on Bryse Wilson so I don’t actually think their upside is as high as you might first think upon looking

Ben Clemens: Another choice would be the Mets, b/c Carrasco and Syndergaard are very volatile

Alejandro The Great: Captain Kirk doesn’t fit his style, this is the consensus choice in many circles I’ve interacted with at this point.

Ben Clemens: Ooh, I like that. I agree that Captain Kirk isn’t all that good; what’s captain-ish about him?

Ben Clemens: He’s named Kirk, we get it

Ben Clemens: But surely the nickname industrial complex can do better

Hingle McCringleberry: If you were the Pirates’ GM, and the draft were tomorrow, who are you taking at 1.1?

Ben Clemens: I’m not a draft watching type, but I think I’d go with Kumar Rocker

Megaladong: Could you give me your thoughts on a couple young pitchers putting together awesome springs, and their outlooks for the season?  I took a chance at the end of my dynasty bench draft on Logan Allen and Daulton Jefferies.  Thanks!

Ben Clemens: I’m much higher on Jefferies, because he’s been such a solid control guy and Oakland’s park rewards that

Ben Clemens: It also feels like it’s easier to break into their rotation, there are just a lot of innings to eat and not a lot of locks to take them

Ben Clemens: Cleveland has that too to some extent, but I worry about Allen’s command, and I think he’ll have to miss more bats to make it work

Ben Clemens: Basically I think Jefferies is closer to a finished product and also has the better opportunity

Re: Kirk Nicknames: I vote for AK 3 Hundy

Ben Clemens: AK 47 homers, etc etc

Re: Kirk Nicknames: Jigglypuff?

Ben Clemens: Too harsh I think

DJ: It appears your “Free Freddy!” (Peralta) plea in the starting rotation positional power rankings worked because he’s now slated to be the Brewers 5th starter to begin the year!

Ben Clemens: I almost rewrote that section when they announced that

Ben Clemens: I was a little grumpy that they did it over the weekend instead of today!

Ben Clemens: But after looking at our projections, which still have him under 100 IP, I decided it was worth keeping

Ben Clemens: I’m reallllly hyped for the Brewers’ rotation this year

Moonlight Graham: I think Kirk should get a nickname that’s yin to La Tortuga’s yang or vice versa

Cambodian Creamsicle: The reports are that over 200 players showed up to camp in the best shape of their life this year.  All 200 will have career years.  Am I wrong?

Ben Clemens: Hard to argue with logic like that

Joe: Can we expect the same production from Cronenworth we saw last season?

Ben Clemens: Basically, no

Ben Clemens: Can you hope for it? sure

Ben Clemens: But I don’t think that it’s a reasonable median expectation — he was awesome in 2020 in a way that his previous numbers didn’t quite show

Ben Clemens: I like him quite a bit as a prospect, and I’d take the over on his Depth Chart projection (96 wRC+), but expecting him to keep posting the highest ISO of his career, plus a walk rate that didn’t even jump from the minors to the bigs, seems excessive

Bucos: What would the ideal system be to replace service time? 6 (really 7) years is way too long for these guys to get a bite at the FA apple. Chances real change makes it into the next CBA?

Ben Clemens: I like some of the ideas around age-based limits that have been floated around

Ben Clemens: Keep the current system, but everyone becomes a free agent at 28

Off the Rails: Did you read Szymborski’s last chat?  It was about chili and cats.

Ben Clemens: I’m not even sure you need the word ‘last’ in there

CBA Idea: The first year that a player plays in the majors should count as a full year of service time, no matter when they get called up.  No more service time manipulation.

Ben Clemens: That would be fine, might result in teams not calling up players for an extra year but it’s better than the current system

Age-based system: But then the Nats get Soto for 9 years

Ben Clemens: Well no, the current system still works too

Ben Clemens: It’s a first-of

Ben Clemens: So 6 years of time or 28

Ben Cherington: People seem broadly supportive of what I’ve done thus far in trades, but can you comment on what I’ve done on the drafting and development side in terms of hires and such? I keep hearing my predecessor wasted some of his best prospects and I don’t want to make the same mistakes.

Ben Clemens: I can tell you t hat to be honest, I’m not really sure.

Ben Clemens: That’s the kind of thing that is hard to view from the outside, particularly if you don’t have connections with the team

JV: Do you see Pete Fairbanks getting the bulk of the save chances in TB?

Ben Clemens: Depending on what bulk means, yes

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll get more than anyone else. I think they’ll be extremely mix-match-y though

Bucos: If service time weren’t a consideration, would teams end up playing their pitching prospects in the majors more often? Limited # of pitches in a guy’s arm, prospect have better stuff than ever, etc. Let’s call it the Chris Sale development path.

Ben Clemens: Yes, for sure

Ben Clemens: I think that even given service time considerations more teams should be doing that with all but hte most elite arms

Derek: REGULAR SEASON MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL IS BACK THIS WEEK

Ben Clemens: Big if true

Ben Clemens: I’m so happy that baseball is back

Ben Clemens: The background sound of the NCAA tournament has been therapeutic to me of late, and the background sound of baseball will be SO much better

Whisper Song Inspiration: Having left a wake of ruined arms behind him (Wood, Prior, Zito, Hudson, etc….), has Dusty Baker finally met his match in Zack Greinke, the arm he can’t destroy?  Maybe he could have him throw 300 innings this year?

Ben Clemens: I think that the Dusty destroys pitchers narrative has outlived the reality on the ground

Ben Clemens: That was the case when he was in Chicago, but not so much in DC or Houston

Ben Clemens: That said, yes Greinke is comically durable

Re: Dusty Baker: Add Verlander to that list….

Ben Clemens: I don’t think anyone would say that Dusty destroyed Verlander? Verlander hasn’t even thrown a pitch with Dusty as manager

Game 2: If you had to guess based on your expectations of health and performance (and ignoring the possibility Cole is needed in game 162), who would end up starting game 2 for NYY in October?

Ben Clemens: Kluber

Ben Clemens: But realllly close to saying Jordan Montgomery

Re: Dusty Baker: He almost destroyed Strasburg too!

Ben Clemens: I don’t think this is true. If you m ean the 2014 season when Stras threw 215 innings (I don’t know what else you could mean, given how kid-gloves-y they were with him), then eh. He threw 114 pitches in a game exactly once that year, his highest total

Ben Clemens: Went 100 in less than half of his starts

Ben Clemens: And I’m an idiot, Dusty wasn’t managing him then

Ben Clemens: SO that leaves 2016 and 2017, and if you’re telling me that 147 and 175 innings almost destroyed Strasburg, I’m gonna have to disagree

Dan Smith BYU: Over/Under on how many times Trevor Bauer does the Conor McGregor noodle arm waggle on his way back to the dugout this season….set at 26.  What you got?

Ben Clemens: Easy over

I love Yu: Still a chance for the DH this season?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so

Ben Clemens: It would have happened by now

Re: Verlander: He made one start in 2020 with Dusty as his manager, and that’s all it took.  Baker just has to look at arms the wrong way, and they implode.

Ben Clemens: Honestly, I totally blanked on the fact that Verlander pitched a game in 2020

Ben Clemens: I’m surprised that he did, but I guess not that surprised. He seems like the kind of guy who would try to play through injury

Derek: I think pitching is just inherently an unhealthy (for the arm) activity and trying to attribute any specific ability to cause or prevent/avoid pitcher injuries is generally foolish! Excepting particularly egregious cases, of course…

Ben Clemens: Right, and to the previous question’s credit, I do think that Dusty’s usage patterns with Wood and Pryor weren’t great

Ben Clemens: Just seems like he isn’t doing that anymre, which is great!

Ben Clemens: And after you stop doin the egregious stuff, it just comes down to the fact that like you said, pitching is bad for your arm

Game 2: My own opinion re: NYY playoffs is I think Montgomery will end up second most valuable (in terms of WAR/innings) but that one of the injury risk flyers will be strong in September and take that slot.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, that’s why I picked Kluber in the end. I think that the odds of Montgomery just being the best starter, full stop, are higher than he’s getting credit for though

Ben: Who are you most surprised is starting in the minors this year? Hoerner? Kingery? Kieboom? Camargo? Kirilloff? Someone else?

Ben Clemens: Kieboom

Ben Clemens: The Nats want him to take that job so badly

Ben Clemens: They keep trying to give it to him

Ben Clemens: And it just keeps not working

Ben Clemens: Hoerner, well, you can argue service time manipulation, but I think that even without that it’d be a close call

Ben Clemens: I keep being excited about Kieboom, and he keeps not doing enough to win the Nats’ trust

Chip: Need to pick up a bat in 12-team H2H to replace Trent Grisham. Options:
Chris Taylor, Haniger, Brian Anderson, Tapia, Nimmo
(6×6 categories +OBP, +SLG, -AVG).

Ben Clemens: I’m very into Tapia as a fantasy option, I think that his profile just works really well in Coors and that the crush of random infield prospects jammed to the outfield due to lack of space might finally be abating

Manfred’s Burner: Who will end their career with more WAR – Soto, Acuna, or Tatis?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go with Soto, b/c this is a complete coinflip, so I’m just picking my favorite of the group

Ben Clemens: I like watching Soto hit, he makes taking a pitch exciting

Ben Clemens: Who else can you say that about?

Guest: Would it be useful to make a War like stat but R calculated on based on the players who are on winning teams so it’s more like wins above contending caliber floor level player?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think so. I don’t know how much it would really add, because the injury replacements on contending teams are usually somewhat bad

Ben Clemens: But using that slightly better baseline would be interesting

Ben Clemens: There are winning teams that look like the Rays, and there are winning teams that look like the Nats

Ben Clemens: It’s not as though every single team that wins has 85 roster options, though it can sometimes feel that way

Kosch: $20 bet to the charity of the winners choice…Myles Straw has more fWAR than JBJ straight up (no mention of the salary / value of WAR convo).

Ben Clemens: I like the Straw side of this, largely for PT reasons

Ben Clemens: The Brewers’ outfield could get crowded if a few people get off to a hot start

Ben Clemens: And I always approve of bets where no matter who wins, someone donates to charity

Jon Daniels: How much longer is Odor on my roster?

Ben Clemens: Active roster? Maybe 1 month’s worth this year

Ben Clemens: If he bats more than 100 times, I don’t know what to say

Ben Clemens: This isn’t a case where you can look at the stats and see some case for a huge rebound

Ben Clemens: This is a case where you look at the stats, and then watch him swing in games, and say “remember how fun he used to be?”

Guest: When he hits a home run, the announcer can just say “Kirk out!”

Ben Clemens: Ooh, I like this one

Prosperity: How long does EV for pitchers take to stabilize? Is it indicative of talent if a pitcher has low mph allowed EV?

Ben Clemens: It’s basically not, and Alex Chamberlain wrote a good piece on it here:

Ben Clemens: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/launch-angle-pitch-location-and-what-pit…

Ben Clemens: With some cool assists from Tom Tango on the graphing front

Derek: or look at the stats, and remember that time he punched Joey Bats’ lights out

MurphyDale: You’re building a dynasty team and can start with either Wander Franco or Bobby Witt. Who do you choose?

Ben Clemens: I’d start with Franco. Not that Witt shouldn’t be high up the list, but Franco’s body of work, age, and the fact that his minor league numbers look like they would translate well to fantasy still win me over

Steveo: Best second C in two catcher leagues:  Varsho, Collins, or Astudillo?

Ben Clemens: I’ll go with Collins due to Eloy’s injury

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll get a lot of chances, I’m still unsure what’s going on with Varsho’s PT

SteveO: You think he gets full-time DH role?

Ben Clemens: I don’t, I think he’ll be a soft platoon with Leury Garcia (who will play left with Vaughn DH’ing vL)

Ben Clemens: But I think he’ll be a big side of a platoon, plus get some days when Grandal needs a day off

Ben Clemens: And that’s enough, second catchers are just so bleh

Moonlight Graham: Do you think there’s a chance MLB adds the universal DH halfway through the season if there are unfortunately lots of pitcher injuries?

Ben Clemens: I do not

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure if I’d want them to — I generally dislike hwen they change rules that affect competitive balance on the fly

Ben Clemens: And this one would, b/c teams prepared for the season with no DH

Ben Clemens: I just don’t think they will, though

Ben Clemens: It will just get folded into the CBA negotiatoin

Kosch: So is that a yes?  No big deal if you’re not a better, I just don’t understand the Stros “should” have signed JBJ for $12M argument when his hitting is wildly inconsistent and his D is on the (age) decline.  Straw will be at worst 80% of the production for 5% of the cost

Ben Clemens: Oh I’ll tell you what. I’ll donate $20 to a charity regardless, and we can take a look at this at the end of the season for fun. Didn’t realize you were asking me specifically, and while I like your side of it and don’t really want to make an online bet, but I like where your head’s at

We’ve got Jokes: The funniest thing to come out of this chat is people thinking that Corey Kluber will pitch in the playoffs.  Let’s see the guy make it through ONE start before we start throwing around fantastical assumptions.  He literally has pitched like two-thirds of an inning in the last two years.

Ben Clemens: Wait, Corey Kluber is injury prone?

Ben Clemens: I’m going to have to re-write my Yankees blurb, I said that he was a rock-solid rotation presence who hadn’t missed a game since 1973

Ben Clemens: (of course he’s injury prone. he’s high upside and low downside. That’s kinda the joke)

Jay: What do you think about the Nolan Gorman to 2B experiment?

Ben Clemens: Might as well try

Ben Clemens: I’ll be shocked if it works, but stranger things have happened, and it doesn’t really hurt that much to try

Ben Clemens: He’s not really an outfielder I don’t think, and if he needs to learn first, so be it

Ben Clemens: Gonna be really hard to dislodge Arenado, so they need to find him a new home, and trying second on the way to first is a smart idea

Kosch: I will also donate $20; nice doing business with you!!!

Ben Clemens: Winner: charities

Ben Clemens: Nice doing business with you as well

Dan: Is that chance of two teammates failing to hit their projections correlated? You’d think so since they have to play through the same environment (clubhouse, coaches, weather etc) but it also seems like I’m listing a lot of things that are already baked into the percentiles.

Ben Clemens: This is a really interesting question that I haven’t seen any research into

Ben Clemens: My guess is that bigger things like injuries would swamp any correlation you’d find here

Ben Clemens: Also, different managers reach different players

Guest: Waiver wire SP options in an AL only league…choose three.  Ray, Richards, Jefferies, Allen, Rodon and Dobnak.

Ben Clemens: Solid league! I’ll go with your first three

Ben Clemens: I’ve already laid out the Jefferies case, but I think Ray has at least a chance at bein great too

Ben Clemens: As for Richards, eh, it depends on if you  need bulk innings or not, but we know he’s good if he’s healthy

Re: Kirk Nicknames: The Big cAKe

Re: Kirk Nicknames: Swamp Thing

Recent Sammy Sosa Picture: How does the Dodgers back end of the rotation shake out?  With Price having already given the “I’m okay with whatever role” blessing, they HAVE to jump at the opportunity to put Gonsolin or May in the 5 spot, right?

Ben Clemens: I think that they’ll use all three as the fifth starter from time to time

Ben Clemens: My best guess is that Gonsolin will end up pitching best and seizing the spot, but that’s heavy on guesswork

Ben Clemens: And light on ‘oh I figured it out’

Ben Clemens: It’s an enviable position to be in

Guest: Alejandro “The Great” Kirk

Ben Clemens: And we’ve come full circle to the first suggestion. I like it. Has a nice ring to it, and emphasizes that he’s great

Dee Arby: How many QS’s does the league leader have at the end of the year?

Ben Clemens: I’ll be honest with you, I haven’t really followed quality starts in a while

Ben Clemens: Let’s see if I can look up old leaderboards

Ben Clemens: I failed to, I’m gonna say 13 with no idea if it’s right or not in the interest of moving on

Ben Clemens: Hilariously low, just found it

Ben Clemens: Cole had 30!

Ben Clemens: I’ll say 28

Bond’s Medicine Cabinet: Should I bail on Kyle Lewis for Senz[IL], Cron, or Austin Riley? I didn’t want to draft him but he fell to me after pick 150

Ben Clemens: I’d be tempted to for Cron, I’ll say it depends on your first base situation

Ben Clemens: I’m into Cron in thin air, but I don’t think Lewis is the worst bet in the world

Marshall: I know the general consensus is that spring training stats don’t matter, but are there any performances you’ve seen that have changed your expectations about a player this season?

Ben Clemens: I’m very interested in Alex Reyes

Ben Clemens: He changed his throwing motion to more of the Giolito/Driveline model

Ben Clemens: Direct and short

Ben Clemens: The early results look good, and he’s just SO talented

Ben Clemens: Are his stats good? I mean, maybe

Ben Clemens: Let’s check!

Ben Clemens: hm, 10 k’s in 7.2, 2.35 ERA

Ben Clemens: Good enough

Trey: Would you put yourself in the top three of most well known Clemens if a poll was taken of random fans attending a baseball game in 2021? Obviously, Roger and Samuel would take the top two spots.

Ben Clemens: I think I’ll give Kellen Clemens the #3 spot

Ben Clemens: Sports fans know football players sometimes

Cards: If Gorman eventually works out at 2nd, the Cardinals would have an infield of Paul, Nolan, Paul, and Nolan.

Ben Clemens: Important note

linh: What are some big playing time stories out of spring training?

Ben Clemens: It’s injury-related, but Vaughn is a big one

Ben Clemens: Daulton Jefferies looking good and getting some shine as a year-long starter is one

Ben Clemens: Suarez to short, which frees up India

Ben Clemens: That’s probably the biggest

Ben Clemens: If you projected Jonathan India for 500 PA in January, you’re a seer

Re: Kirk Nicknames: How about a symbol, like >  meaning greater than.  Kind of a Prince theme.

Ben Clemens: I would be into that as well

Phil: Further to Numpty’s question, if you had a team full of two true outcome hitters with 50% BB and 50% K (and obviously they are just sitting on each base, no one is trying to steal), they would average 8.44 runs per game (assuming each hitter walked or struck out completely at random).

Ben Clemens: Yeah — OBP stacks really well

Gabe: Stephen Matz top 50 pitcher this year.  Thoughts?

Ben Clemens: I admire your optimism. I am less convinced that he’ll be a top 4 starter for the Jays

Ben Clemens: I hope I’m wrong, I’ve always liked watching Matz pitch and he seems like a really good guy

Guest: The Masters is running their own fantasy league with actual prizes like a signed flag by the champion. Can MLB run something similar?

Ben Clemens: They should, and I’m surprised they haven’t

Jay: Regarding Gorman, the Cards may have backed themselves into a corner if he can’t stick at 2B or OF. No openings on the CIF until 2025 (pending Arenado opt out clauses). Even if universal DH is adopted it would be a shame to use him there.

Ben Clemens: I mean, you can’t count on your A ball prospect to make it in the majors to the extent that you pass on getting literally Nolan Arenado

Ben Clemens: It’s an open question whether Gorman sticks in the big leagues, and would it be that much of a shame to use him at DH? He wasn’t an impact defender as a draft pick and I haven’t heard reports of him getting better

Ben Clemens: I’m also down on him as a hitting prospect relative to industry consensus, though I’m not claiming to be an expert at this

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a problem that you solve when you get to it

John b: Thoughts on how many pitchers to carry in NL with 26 man roster.  12,13,14?  Isn’t this a chance to start putting base running specialists and the like on the roster ?

Ben Clemens: 13, imo

Ben Clemens: I don’t think any team is willing to carry 12 given that no one really did pre-2020

Ben Clemens: 13 seems like a balanced amount, I bet a lot of teams will carry 14

C Bass: How long before David Price takes over as the Dodgers closer?

Ben Clemens: If they decide to move him out of the rotation, I think this would make a ton of sense

Ben Clemens: On that note, I’m going to call it a day for this chat. Thanks for hanging out with me, everyone, and I’m looking forward to talking next week with actual games to obsess over

Ben Clemens: Have a great day!