Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/5/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: As is normal when I shift into this Tuesday spot, I’m going to go fast and furious today so that I can walk my dog at 10 PT, so let’s get right to it.

ZEEBLE: So much of the Cubs rebuild has been focused on run prevention through defense. They seem committed to give Chris Morel a shot at 3B this year, despite his poor showing there in the past. Do they just trust Morel’s bat + Dansby’s defense enough to make that work? Morel’s arm is live but sometimes you just don’t know where the ball is going.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a good bet to make. The Cubs should find somewhere to play Morel, and he has a live arm, give him some reps at third

Ben Clemens: I get that he hasn’t done great defensively in the past, but particularly for a guy like him where the physical talent is there and it seems like it’s about experience and repetition, he’s not going to get better by NOT playing third

Ben Clemens: I do think that he’s on a bit of a short leash. If he’s not hitting, and if he doesn’t look good defensively, they have enough infield options that I doubt he’ll last there

Ben Clemens: The Cubs have a TON of depth, which means that if anyone starts off really poorly, they’re likely to lose playing time rapidly

Red Sox Fans: We’re moving on to 2025.

Ben Clemens: I’m writing about this, probably for tomorrow

Ben Clemens: It’s not looking great!

Ben Clemens: I thought Giolito made sense as an addition because he’s very durable and because that was their rotation’s seeming biggest weakness

Ben Clemens: uh, whoops

Steve: Hey Ben, what are your takes on the playoff format? What changes would you make that are realistic (i.e. not having less teams qualify, we know that won’t happen).

Ben Clemens: I liked the year where there were fewer off days

Ben Clemens: I understand that it’s tough from a TV perspective, but I think syncing up the playoffs just slightly more to regular season baseball in requiring five starters and not letting teams just run wild with the bullpen was a welcome change

Ben Clemens: the current DS setups just give SO many days to rest starters and rejuice bullpens

birds birds birds: In his prospects chat, Eric referred to Szymborski as “Danny”.  Do you all call him that??  Is that what he goes by???

Ben Clemens: I call him Dan. But I’m pretty sure he’d respond to Danny Zips, DZ, Mr. Projections Man, or most any name you can think of from a 1980’s movie

Dan Sanchez: The Cubs 2024 3B situation is murky. The Orioles have a logjam and could use some optionable pitching.

Would something like Ramon Urias for Luke Little work?

Ben Clemens: This makes very little sense for the Cubs, in my opinion

Ben Clemens: They’re drowning in guys like Urias

Ben Clemens: O dpm

Ben Clemens: I don’t look at the Cubs’s roster and think oh yeah, they need more 3b/2b’s

Ben Clemens: They need one really good one!

Idiotic Failson: When is too early to sell? Asking as a guy who has Gray, Verlander, and Giolito rostered.

Ben Clemens: I mean, ouch

Ben Clemens: That’s a rough group, I think depending on what kind of league this is and how keeping/dynasty style stuff works, you might want to start pivoting

Baltimoron: Do any of the FG writers live in the same city and hang out regularly?

Ben Clemens: No, but we do try to meet up a few times a year to make up for it

KC Pain: Is there anything in ST you look for that makes you move a guy up or down? To use a cross sport reference I ignore the combine numbers unless some guy is way out of variance, fast guy runs super slow for example.

Ben Clemens: I look a little bit at velo, pitch mix, and very occasionally batted ball data

Ben Clemens: Mostly, though, I’m looking at health and playing time

Guest: Thanks Ben for your time. Rank the injured arms over the next three years…deGrom, Scherzer, Springs, Rasmussen, and McClanahan. I have 5 il spots and can keep keepers for 3 years.

Ben Clemens: I have McClanahan first, then dG< then Springs/Rasmussen/Scherzer in a tight tier in that order

Ben Clemens: that carrot should have been a comma, to clarify

birds birds birds: Do you think Jorge Mateo can play CF?  If not, who’s the O’s backup CF?  Cowser kind of has to make the team, no?

Ben Clemens: I think he probably can. I’m not sure if he should

Ben Clemens: If they start with Mateo as the CF backup, I think they’ll end up witih a new plan in fairly short order

Ben Clemens: It’s just not a responsible way to run a team with their expectations, in my opinion

Jed: Your thoughts on 2nd year Seattle starters Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo.  Do you see other taking a step forward in 2024 … maybe not to the degree George Kirby did in 2023?

Ben Clemens: I like Woo more, and I would bet on him taking a step forward over Miller for sure

Ben Clemens: Miller has higher upside, I think. He just has a tremendous ability to manipulate the baseball

Ben Clemens: But I am a sucker for control

wondering about the past: The Blue Jays have got to be kicking themselves for bringing in Mark Shapiro (over Alex A) above few years ago. Are there any organizational #2s that you think would make a great general manager next year.

Ben Clemens: I just don’t have enough information to answer this intelligently

Ben Clemens: We don’t see enough of what goes on

Matt: What’s your opinion on the Wheeler extension?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s very wise for both sides

Ben Clemens: There’s no reason Wheeler needs to change teams if the Phillies are gonna pay him a market rate to be a top starter

Ben Clemens: and there’s no reason for the Phillies to monkey around with trying to change team composition when they know they’re gonna want a Nola/Wheeler top end for years to come

Okra: Mariners and Tigers should try to take JD Davis off the Giant’s  hands, right?

Ben Clemens: 100%

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll end up moving him

Ben Clemens: One of Farhan’s cryptic communications post-Chapman signing made me think Davis is on the move

Ben Clemens: I think he said he didn’t rule out any moves, or something

Mike Elias: Does Dan Sanchez work for the Cubs, if so, can you have him call me asap?

Jeff: Do you think Alvarado will be Phillies primary closer or will it be a committee?

Ben Clemens: I think it’ll be by committee

birds birds birds: At this point, the remaining free agent SP won’t be ready for opening day, yeah?  That’s fine if you’re getting a 3-5 year deal, but that’s gotta really hurt guys like Lorenzen or Clevinger, no?  They should be motivated to get their deal whether or not Snell/Montgomery have finally settled.

Ben Clemens: Yeah…. I think they’re right on the cusp depending on how much side work they’re doing, but rapidly running out of time

Colton: Where do you see the likely landing spot for Monty and Snell now that there are so many injuries popping up?

Ben Clemens: I can’t quite believe I’m saying this, but Snell Giants Montgomery Red Sox seems… likely?

Ben Clemens: The Sox need someone I think

Pat: Mea Culpa- I mentioned a couple of weeks ago in a chat that Detroit didn’t need to go after Chapman due to Jung/Keith & possibly blocking them. For 3 years, $54M with they definitely should have been in on that. Just very little downside with what he got. As usual, you were right!

Ben Clemens: eh, no one thought Chapman was getting THIS deal

Ben Clemens: Hard to predict this kind of future imo

TNST3B: Who has a higher OPS this year, Story or Lux?

Ben Clemens: Lux for me by a fair margin

romorr: If you were working for the Orioles, outside of your mom being happy, what kind of moves / signings would you be pushing. Monty is obvious, but Santander trade, Hays trade, a prospect or 2 for more pitching?

Ben Clemens: I think that the main move I would be banging the table over has happened (trading for Burnes)

Ben Clemens: I think that signing Montgomery is not anywhere near necessary, and I’d be into it but only if it wasn’t going to constrain me making other moves in the future

Ben Clemens: I think the key thing for the O’s now is to be opportunistic and look to consolidate where they can

Ben Clemens: That said, the O’s wouldn’t be hiring me in a decision making capacity I don’t think. And if they do want to — you guys know where to reach me!

Justin: Opinions on the Chapman signing? Surprising since Kyle already wrote about an infield playing time crunch prior to the signing

Ben Clemens: It’s too cheap to be a bad move

Ben Clemens: I think the right thing to do when you can get Chapman on that deal is do it, then figure out how to trade away the surplus

Nate: Odds that Singer recaptures the form he showed in 22? Outside of that year he’s been very meh. There’s been some standard ST noise about him adding another pitch or two but I’ll believe it when I see it

Ben Clemens: Yeah, he’s squarely in prove it to me before I believe it mode

birds birds birds: With Martinez and Belt still unemployed, there’s nobody that’s gonna sign Joey Votto is there?  Sad to see him get forcibly retired

Ben Clemens: I think he might get a very small deal as a part time player, but I’m not sure he wants that

Ben Clemens: and agreed, it’s truly sad

Princess Leia: Help us Obi-Wan Clemenobi! You’re our only hope!

P.s. will the Yankees sign Snellzilla?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so

E: How do you think Jackson Chourio will fare in his first major league season?

Ben Clemens: I hate to say that the median expectation is for a below average season with huge flashes of power and inconsistent results, but I mean…. it is

Bob Loblaw, Esq.: Will there ever be any gambling advice added to FanGraphs?

Ben Clemens: I doubt it

Ben Clemens: I don’t have anything in particular against gambling, I’ve been known to place the occasional wager

Ben Clemens: and this is me, not FanGraphs, to be clear

Ben Clemens: but I find most gambling writing to be a little gross

Ben Clemens: it’s just hard to avoid it feeling grim and transactional

biggie: Over/Under $200 million guaranteed when Snell and Montgomery eventually sign?

Ben Clemens: Under at this point, which I truly did not expect going into the year

Ross: Do you think the Mariners have a real chance of winning the division this year?

Ben Clemens: oh yeah, absolutely

David: Why don’t teams at or near the luxury tax have front loaded deals with lots of subsequent $1 million player options to lower the AV? Is there anything that prevents them from doing this?

Ben Clemens: You can do this a little, I think. The Padres deals with Wacha and so on are like that

Ben Clemens: Last year’s deals

Ben Clemens: but I think the league office would disallow the contracts if they were obviously designed to circumvent the CBT with unrealistic provisions

David: If the Cubs wanted to free $ for Montgomery, is Drew Smyly at 9.5M AAV for 1 year moveable? Any net value one way or the other?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s slightly underwater

Ben Clemens: but could be moved for sure

Ben Clemens: people who can pitch every fifth day is valuable

Jerry D: How would you grade the front office offseason for the M’s considering the last second about face by ownership to slash payroll during a prime contention window?

Ben Clemens: A for the front office

Ben Clemens: D for ownership

Ben Clemens: I’m truly quite impressed by their ability to build a reasonable roster in the face of this nonsense

buffy the umpire slayer: Not your issue but how can you find out if projections have been updated? Kevin Pillar is a CHW but DC, ATC & BATX do not show him as such. Adding to his team will impact his and other players projections due to playing time changes.

Ben Clemens: They get updated fairly frequently, I bet we’re talking sooner rather than later

Princess Leia: Elly De La Cruz goes peak Tatis Jr. this year. You heard it here first!

Ben Clemens: As someone who ranked Elly in my top 10 trade value last year…. I hope you’re right haha

Ben Clemens: Bail me out

Big 3: True or False: Top to bottom, the Mariners have the best starting rotation in baseball?

Ben Clemens: I think it just depends on what top to bottom means

Ben Clemens: I would take the Dodgers by a hair b/c I think their top end is so good

Ben Clemens: but if you’re saying who has the best #5 starter, I would give the edge to the M’s

Okra: Am I wrong to think a huge inefficiency in prospect valuation is the penalty for moving down the defensive spectrum?  Over the last 3 years, here are the MLB league avg wRC+ for 3B/LF/RF – 97/100/104.  Why do we keep pretending it’s such a high offensive bar to clear if you don’t play up the middle?

Ben Clemens: It’s about the defensive bar, not the offensive bar

Ben Clemens: it’s about who can replace you

Ben Clemens: many more people can stand in left than at third

KC Pain: I know many are expecting vladdy bounceback….where is his ceiling/peak?  I know expectations+ scouting reports were absurd.  I ask because trying to snag in league, and the price was basically 3 top players (D. Williams, Steele, and Machado) and 3 prospects (Mayo, Skenes, Dominguez).  Of that bunch what do you think is “reasonable” *ps i will of course show this to league mate and say seeeeee what the experts said!*

Ben Clemens: I mean, his peak is outrageous for sure

Ben Clemens: But I am just not a buyer at this point

Ben Clemens: He needs to slug a TON to get to his peak

Ben Clemens: like 2021, sure, he slugged a ton

Ben Clemens: but I think that’s just really tough to reach consistently

Ben Clemens: I would sell him averaging better than a 135 or so wRC+ going forward and that’s just not enough at first base

Jed: I keep reading Hunter Brown is poised to take a step forward this season. His 2nd half of 2023 gives me pause. Where do you stand on Hunter Brown for 2024?

Ben Clemens: buyer

Idiotic Failson: You taking the Yankees or the field when it comes to signing Soto next year?

Ben Clemens: Sigh, Yankees

Ben Clemens: I want Soto to be a Cardinal or Giant

Ben Clemens: because those are the teams I watch the most

KC Pain: Is there a reason everyone is down on Soderstrom?  Guy progressed through all those levels and made it to the bigs at 20 (21?).  I cant find him on anyones list anymore and im curious if there is data/concern on his hitting or is it just “he didnt do well”?

Ben Clemens: Eric likes him

Ben Clemens: here’s his graduation report:

Ben Clemens: Graduation TLDR: Soderstrom projects as a middle-of-the-order force despite his rough rookie season.

Ben Clemens: Graduation TLDR: Soderstrom projects as a middle-of-the-order force despite his rough rookie season.

Ben Clemens: sounds good to me!

Ben Clemens: that said, models hate him

Ben Clemens: b/c he hit sooooo badly

Tacoby Bellsbury: Post-pandemic, my life has gotten way busier and board games are falling out of my rotation of recreational activities. How are you making time for them?

Ben Clemens: Honestly, I’m not as much as I used to

Ben Clemens: the thing that has gotten me back into them more so is that my friend is designing a baseball game that looks awesome to me

Ben Clemens: but I’m definitely playing less than in 2021

Zombie One-Legged Bill Veeck: Are the O’s going to regret prioritizing giving Ryan O’Hearn at bats over Cowser or Kjerstad (or Mayo, or Norby, or…)

Ben Clemens: Yeah……

Ben Clemens: I think so

Ben Clemens: Very impressive group of prospects, and I love what the O’s are doing in terms of finding good major leaguers who other teams doubt, but….

Ben Clemens: don’t let that get in the way of trying to win now

Captain ACAB: Why are the Yankees able to add velo to their minor league arms? Do they just have a higher risk tolerance for injuries and tell their young guys to throw harder or do they do something else to add mph?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know the entirety of it but tolerance is a LOT

Ben Clemens: they’re just willing to let those guys go more, and I think that players are pretty clearly on board

CMA: Misiorowski crystal ball:  starter or closer?

Ben Clemens: Starter

Reputation: You heard it here first – Will Benson produced more WAR than Elly over the next three years – and I don’t even like Will Benson that much

Ben Clemens: I extremely doubt this one

Jr: Of the three breakouts last year, who do you like to see really take off this year: Bobby Miller, Grayson Rodriguez, or Cole Ragans? All of them?

Ben Clemens: Ragans for me

Insert Witty Name Here: Do you think Snell’s market sucks just because teams know his performance last year was an outlier?

Ben Clemens: No, I think that it’s because people just don’t buy in in general, I don’t think it’s unique to last year

Wonder Kids: Which one of the rookie SS do you think shows up better: Holliday, Lawler, or Merrill?

Ben Clemens: Holliday because I think it’s easier for him to get the playing time

Guest: Can you direct me to a site that explains the CBT?  I read  if the Yankees signed Snell to a 30mm per year contract it wouuld actually cost them a 110 % penalty or 63mm per year because they are so far over the CBT.. Does this sound right?

Ben Clemens: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

Ben Clemens: Seems around right

Princess Leia: Soto as a giant would give some Bonds flashbacks…

Ben Clemens: Oh yes

Wait a sec: Obi-Wans pseudonym was literally Ben.  Why didn’t the previous poster use your first name instead of your last???

Ben Clemens: I can’t tell you how much I loved a random character being named Ben, against all logic, when I was a kid

Nicholas: Is victor scott going to be any more than Esteury Ruiz?

Ben Clemens: I am a skeptic as well

Ben Clemens: but hey, better CF defense than Ruiz would go a long way

Megan: Do we expect a step forward for M Yoshida in his second year?

Ben Clemens: I hate to say this but no

Ben Clemens: I just don’t see it anymore

Ben Clemens: not that I was ever super in

Timmy: Does Caballero have 15/45 upside with an everyday job?

Ben Clemens: I think so

Nicholas: Can we access past years Stuff+ on the site?

Ben Clemens: You can

Ben Clemens: just go to leaderboards for previous years

DF: Is Joey Votto finished? Say it ain’t so! I was surpised the Jays signed Vogelbach with Votto still out there. You?

Ben Clemens: Totally

Idiotic Failson: What do you think about Alek Thomas this year? Does he cut down his k rate to be an above average regular?

Ben Clemens: I’m a buyer

Ben Clemens: I just really like his skillset

Ben Clemens: that kind of defense and speed plays, and gives him a long time to improve on the rest

Colton A: I have begun to take a hard stance that people should stop switch hitting overall, pitchers are outpacing hitters by so much at this point that I think it should almost be discouraged to try and manage both swings. Ever thought about an article on something like this? I think I remember an article on the site last year talking about Edman going R on R against late game relievers but I can’t seem to find it right now. Thanks!

Ben Clemens: I think it was in one of my five things

Ben Clemens: Let me see if I can dig it up

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-things-i-liked-or-didnt-like-this-wee…

Ben Clemens: Ooh this was a good one

Phil: Re: Yoshida, doesn’t it depend on what “a step forward” constitutes? Something more like his first half for most of the year, plus removing his negative defensive value, would help, yes? I will grant that, even as a Red Sox fan, I’m not confident about his reproducing his NPB results in MLB, if that’s what the questioner meant by “step forward.”

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I guess that’s fair

Ben Clemens: Basically I’d say that I’m really worried that his walks were a mirage

Will work for food: Does MLB set up a spring training facility for unsigned players to use in both AZ and FL?  Or are the players completely on their own preparing for the season until they sign?

Ben Clemens: MLB does not. In the past years, agents or the MLBPA have, though

Nate: Hoping for a Vinnie P breakout this year. He was OPSing around .900 with great contact quality before his shoulder got hurt last year

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, I think this is entirely reasonable

Ben Clemens: Big Vinnie P fan

Yankees injury list: Am I right that the money collected for luxury tax gets shared out to small market teams? How much does this amount to?

Ben Clemens: Less than you’d think. So the first 13 million in tax goes to funding some obligations to the MLBPA. Then of all the remaining money, half helps fund the MLBPA retirement fund and the rest gets distributed to the small market teams

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: I don’t understand why you would include framing data in WAR for catchers, a metric used to compare players across eras, when the framing data only goes back less than two decades, and you use WAR for players going back 150 years.

Ben Clemens: It’s a tough questoin

Ben Clemens: It’s part of their value

Ben Clemens: and we strive to capture player value

Ben Clemens: It definitely makes historical comparisons tougher, though

Ben Clemens: shoudl we not include baserunning because we don’t have great records of it going back through time?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a hard question to answer. I think that the right thing to do is include it but keep it in mind when doing historical comparisons

Wrigley: Shota Imanaga had 2x the HR rate (NPB) of any recent Japanese import.  Is he getting shelled this year?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s gonna have a huge homer problem and that everything else is gonna look sharp

Princess Leia: Mr. Wait A Sec, art is art. Don’t mess with the Obi-Wan Clemenobi!

Yankees injury list: Sorry. But more on the lux tax: is there someplace I can see which teams get payouts and what those amounts are?

Ben Clemens: I have never seen that, no

bringbackpologrounds: How valuable is a 2B/3B/SS who can bat left-handed?

Ben Clemens: Depends on how well they can hit. Like, if they’re a great hitter, Seager-tier, eh, how good you are matters way more than handedness

Ben Clemens: if you can’t hit, who cares

Ben Clemens: but in that sweet spot where you’re a nice platoon bat but not a slam dunk everyday starter, it’s tremendously valuable

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Why does Fangraphs have KBO stats but not NPB stats?

Ben Clemens: Licensing

JT: Will 2024 Andres Gimenez be closer to 2022 Andres (great) or 2023 Andres (meh)

Ben Clemens: 2022

Sodo Mojo: Can you remind me its spring and I shouldn’t worry about the Mariners bullpen getting rocked

Ben Clemens: It’s spring training and you shouldn’t worry about the Mariners bullpen getting rocked

Guest: Do you think Heston Kjerstad still has a high career ceiling?

Ben Clemens: Sure!

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical of the idea of ceilings, but sure

Nate: Appreciate the Nelson Velazquez shoutout in your Whomps per Whiff post, he’s a sleeper pick of mine to have a sneaky good season

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m in

Ben Clemens: he’s sneaky good

Phil: Do you have an opinion about C. J. Cron? I didn’t see a writeup on FG, not sure if I missed it in some roundup. I mean, I’m not implying it’s some kind of major signing, I just thought it was interesting regarding a guy who was a solid 1-2 win player just 18 months ago.

Ben Clemens: I think it comes down to someone not desperately needing a topic when he signed

Ben Clemens: He signed a minor league deal

Ben Clemens: If he makes the squad and ends up as part of their plans in an obvious way, I’m sure someone will write about it

Sad Angels Fan: Ohtani gone. Trout in decline. Looking for bright spots, can Detmers be something? He has flashes of absolute brilliance and spells of…not brilliance

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think Detmers could pop

Space Cowboy: How do you think Yainer Diaz does this year with the majority of at bats? Sneaky 30 home run guy?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Princess Leia: Oh snap, it’s Spencer Strider day! Hell yeah!

NL Central: You can make a case for any team here to win the division.  Who do you see battling for the division title when the smoke clears?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a Cards/Brewers race right down to the wire with the Cubs falling just short

Ben Clemens: I think the Brewers are meaningfully underrated

Red Sox fan: Red Sox Montgomery???

Ben Clemens: Feels likely

Alex: Do you have a Mariners breakout candidate this year that you like?

Ben Clemens: Luis Urias for life

Ben Clemens: though I see he’s already hurt, wonderful

Okra: Teams seem to be using bulk relievers more regularly and only 23 guys threw over 180 innings last year.  Since innings are being spread to more guys wouldn’t it be better to experiment more with 6 man rotations to give guys more rest and see if you get higher quality innings out of them?

Ben Clemens: for teams who have six viable starters, sure

Ben Clemens: but uh

Guest: For long term, would you rather have Brendan Donovan on your team, or one of: Luis Campusano, or Logan O’Hoppe?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d take O’Hoppe by a hair over Donovan, but it’s extremely dependent on team construction

Ben Clemens: I don’t have Campusano in the same tier

Zombie One-Legged Bill Veeck: Do you think having the old park dimensions would have made any meaningful difference to last year’s O’s team?

Ben Clemens: My guess is no but I haven’t done a deep dive

Ben Clemens: Okay everyone, thank you for participating in this high-speed chat. I’m now going to get out of pajamas and go on a long dog walk, my normal 10 a.m. activity, but I’m going to do so after a ton of baseball brain exercise, so thank you very much for making this a fun and snappy chat

Ben Clemens: I cut out pretty much all the nonsense (cooking, board games, etc) so we’ll have to do more of that next Monday

Phil: I wasn’t criticizing you for not writing up C. J. Cron! I just wasn’t sure if I missed it.

Ben Clemens: I’ll be honest with you, I missed it

Ben Clemens: the signing

Tacoby Bellsbury: say hi to the dog for us

Ben Clemens: deal

Justin: Where do the fangraphs videos that play after ads come from

Ben Clemens: Eric shoots them

Ben Clemens: okay, on those notes, have a good one everyone