Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/17/23

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. Let’s talk some baseball

Leland: Ian Hamilton seems to consistently pitch every 3rd game, is that something you would try and stream. Has strong K/9

Ben Clemens: Depends a lot on the context of your roster and the way your league does points, but I’m considering it myself

Jack: A rough 2+ innings for Bello this morning, but are you optimistic longer-term?

Ben Clemens: I am, and today I’m just giving everyone a pass. Super early start time, terrible weather, tons of stops and starts, and as a bonus it’s his first start of the season

Ben Clemens: There are just a lot of reasons to think that today will be a little bit weird

Ben Clemens: Ohtani walked Raimel Tapia on four pitches to start the bottom of the first, for example

BookerT: When do you think Mike Soroka will be back in the Braves rotation?

Ben Clemens: Ugh, if I had to set a 50% likelihood number, I think the right answer would be “never”, which sucks

Ben Clemens: at least, in the rotation permanently again

Ben Clemens: I just think there’s too much risk of him not being the same guy after so much time on the shelf

Ben Clemens: That said his rehab starts have been encouraging. I think they will try him out sooner rather than later, say by the end of the month

Ben Clemens: I just don’t know if I believe, basically

YG: are the cubs for real? the pitching looks legit and the offense seems to be just enough. what do you make of it?

Name: Am I insane to think the Cubs could have a top 5 rotation this year?

Ben Clemens: Lots of Cubs questions today. Yeah, top 5 rotation is a big stretch. Top half of rotations in baseball sure

Ko Clem: fWAR bet between Jordan Walker and Miguel Vargas this year, who wins

Ben Clemens: gimme Vargas, and boy does that sound depressing to Cardinals fans, but Walker is young and Vargas is great

Kevin: Should the Sox not have started Bello today given all of the things you just mentioned?

Ben Clemens: I think that anyone starting today was gonna have some difficulties. The Angels started Ohtani, one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he’s had mixed results (though he looked quite good in the second)

Ben Clemens: But yeah, I would not have started him today

Ben Clemens: Give the hardship to someone who has had a bit more time to acclimate

Ben Clemens: I’m a big kid-gloves guy when it comes to pitchers ramping up

YG: are you at all worried about michael harris not living up to his batting numbers from last year?

Ben Clemens: 100%

Ben Clemens: I thought he had like a 90th percentile outcome batting wise

Ben Clemens: That doesn’t have anything to do with his 25 PA’s from this year, just, it’s not all that common for a guy to hit better in the majors than he did in Double-A in the same year

Ben Clemens: And then be even better in the majors the year after that

Ben Clemens: He really needs to do a ton of damage on contact to make his approach work

YG: the projections still seem to be pretty high on harris though. basically enough to repeat last year

Ben Clemens: They project him for a 117 wRC+, which would be 20 points lower than last year. Still good!

Pete: Good afternoon Ben, which starting pitcher is your preference rest of season – Ashcraft, Bradley, DeSclafani, Megill, Kikuchi, Elder or Lugo?

Ben Clemens: Ashcraft for me

Ben Clemens: He looks great

Sirras: I feel bad for Oakland fans. Watching that team for 3 games wasn’t the best and now that the series is done I don’t have to keep watching them walk the world

Ben Clemens: It’s no fun. I liked living in NY because there were two baseball teams worth of fun stories going on, and the bay felt the same in 2020 when the A’s made the playoffs. Now, uh…

Air Yordan: Worry meter 1-10 on mikolas? The luck hasn’t been on his side but it hasn’t been pretty

Ben Clemens: 8

Ben Clemens: unlucky, like you said, but he hasn’t looked sharp at all

Ben Clemens: I’m hoping as a Cards fan that it’s just because he played two offenses that are really poor matchups and then played in Colorado, but yikes

JG6: I was watching Jordan Walker and started wondering what’s the skill that gives the best chance for real MVP upside for a young or developing player?  Stantonesque power especially backed by elite EVs seems like it would be high on the list.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’d pick power first and then hit tool second

Ben Clemens: The thing about having a great, Altuve-esque hit tool is that you don’t need to develop THAT much power to have the power play if you make your best contact frequently

G4: Overlooked preseason Cardinals strategy for winning the NL Central: Do nothing beyond praying to the baseball gods for a major injury to Woodruff (or Burnes). Look children, it’s another St. Louie miracle!

Ben Clemens: That was always the big reason to be skeptical of the Brewres

Ben Clemens: they built a team that had no depth at all but that looked equal to the Cardinals on paper, meanwhile the Cardinals have 37 starting outfielders who are all the same

Ben Clemens: If they stay healthy, that seems great, what an efficient use of resources to not have a top prospect like Dylan Carlson on the bench. If someone gets hurt, well, gg

Oaktown Blues: So far Esteury Ruiz looks like a hit, right? The EVs are still not great, but they’re better than last year’s cup of coffee, and the plate discipline is legit

Ben Clemens: Yeah! Feeling good

Ben Clemens: the power might not be real but the strikeout avoidance is and he’s as fast as advertised

J: I mean, the Cardinals have 0 depth in the rotation. Just opposite problems.

Ben Clemens: I’d argue that the Cardinals have no top end of the rotation

Ben Clemens: they have a ton of blah number 5 starters

Ben Clemens: like, what happens if a cards pitcher gets injured? presumably the team looks exactly the same

Chip: Gerritt Cole has to be the most valuable pitcher in the game, right? Between his stuff, control, and taking the mound every 5th day the guy is just consistently way above average. I mean, DeGrom is good, but there’s always the worry he’s going to be on the shelf.

Ben Clemens: It’s him or Corbin Burnes for me

Ben Clemens: And yeah, most valuable, not best, agreed

Ben Clemens: Durability matters

Ben Clemens: Obviously you could mention Sandy in this discussion too, but let’s give him a year to repeat himself before we decide he’s Cole-esque

Gila Monster: I was listening to your predictions draft on EW the other day and I have my BOLD prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. returns and wins the NL MVP.

Ben Clemens: Now that is bold

Chip: Giancarlo Stanton has been injured 40% of the time since 2019. That’s it. That’s the comment.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, it’s not great

YG: dylan cease has looked really messy with his command so far, but his numbers are pretty much okay. are you worried about him?

Ben Clemens: I’m not

DJ: DJ LeMahieu has always looked ungainly and awkward (he is so much taller than it seems) but he somehow makes it work when he’s not hurt. He’s like Reggie Miller, I’d never teach someone to do it that way but it works.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, he’s not Hunter Pence, but I feel similarly about him

Ben Clemens: This is not how you’d teach it, and also it works

Mike Truk: With starter pitch counts being so heavily managed, much value is there in taking long ABs compared to short ones, after controlling for actual outcomes like BB%, K%, etc? The way I think about it, every extra pitch a starter has to make increases the likelihood that you get to see that third- or fourth-best bullpen option that the opposing manager was hoping they wouldn’t have to use that day. Has this ever been studied systematically?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t seen it studied systematically, but I could see it against good starters. Against the back half of the rotation, the relievers are probably better anyway

limron: Are we getting too excited about Taj Bradley and his initial Stuff+ numbers? Or is top 20 pitcher a >40% outcome?

Ben Clemens: Definitely getting too excited

Ben Clemens: Volume matters a lot to be a top 20 pitcher in fantasy (which is what I’m assuming is the question here)

Ben Clemens: He looked awesome, don’t get me wrong

Crosby: How long can the Cubs justify keeping Mervis down? He’s hitting AAA better than last year, walking more, and striking out less. Meanwhile Hosmer is hitting the ball straight downwards and he has been better than Mancini.

Ben Clemens: I don’t get it

Chip: I know you’re specialty isn’t necessarily fantasy but I got a decision to make today – keeper league with no bench. Suzuki is back so I need to drop one of: De La Cruz (1.50), Cooper (1.00), Blackmon (4.50), Outman (10.00), Vargas (4.50)

Ben Clemens: Oof I think I’d drop Cooper, Blackmon is just gonna keep getting PT in Coors

Pedro: Ben, more confidence in Brad Keller against TX or Tyler Anderson against KC this week?  Thanks in advance

Ben Clemens: Tyler Anderson by a mile

Chip: Is it time to worry about Manoah. He’s been, bad. If not, when do you worry?

Ben Clemens: I briefly wrote about him last Friday, I’m not worried yet but if he cannot regain his slider command in, let’s say, 3 starts, I’m gonna get worried fast

Guest: Do you think the Cardinals bungled their outfield situation? Nootbaar and Burleson both have made strong claims to the starting spots in LF and CF. Jordan Walker sort of HAS to start in RF now, leaving Carlson and TON with pretty similar roles and poor 2023 stats. I don’t think that the team had any intention of playing Carlson vs RHPs consistently this year, but now they are in a spot where their two most logical trade pieces aren’t playing. I don’t think its a hot take to say that Carlson and TON would likely out-perform Walker value-wise over the next few months, but that option isn’t really on the table (barring an option)
Now, there are worse things than having Jordan Walker as the hitter in the lineup who is struggling the most, and maybe he can turn it around after a rough week, but now the team seems stuck with RF who doesn’t totally appear ready and 2 solid OFs on the bench

Ben Clemens: Coming back to this one as I saw it earlier and wanted to hink about it a lot

Ben Clemens: I’m not exactly sure what the Cardinals should have done, but I think that bringing Walker up does necessitate letting him play until he shows he’s not ready yet

Ben Clemens: Burleson working out so well early is an unexpected benefit that makes for tougher decisions

Ben Clemens: I said throughout the spring that I would have started Walker in Triple-A, but it’s not like the problem would be any easier then

Doug Drebek – Underrated: Could the Pirates get back to .500 this year, even with Cruz on the shelf until late summer? They have looked decidedly competent so far but Reynolds and McCutchen might turn back into pumpkins.

Ben Clemens: I’m not ready to believe yet

O’s ‘n Bohs: Grayson Rodriguez ERA: 6.91. Grayson Rodriguez ERA w/o 1st innings: 3.18. What gives?

Ben Clemens: April gives. Three innings worth of first innings is just not nearly enough to say anything

Oaktown Blues: Have you heard about the “reverse boycott” planned by A’s fans? Will you attend?

Ben Clemens: I won’t, but only because I am pretty sure I’m gonna be working remotely that week to get a trip in

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a cool idea and generally dislike all the crap Fisher has been talking about Oakland fans, who are great

noise?: The guardians have looked shaky defensively this year with even gimenez and straw scoring negative ratings. should we be worried or

Ben Clemens: Nah, April

JG6: Do you think a good player profile comp for Volpe would be Marcus Semien?  Obviously Semien is more established and better at present but I could see Volpe developing into a similar type.

Ben Clemens: I could see it

Ben Clemens: A speedier version, but yeah, not excessive power but gets to all of it thanks to approach

Nestor Cortes: …is basically an established top line pitcher now?

Ben Clemens: Depending on the exact definition of those words, yes

Ben Clemens: He has looked very good, aprticularly from a command perspective, to start the year

Ben Clemens: The Yankees rotation is far from full strength and it’s also one of the best in the majors already

lars nootbaar: Should I be leading off?

Ben Clemens: I think you’re a really good #2 hitter if the Cards are gonna keep going Goldy/Arenado 3/4

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Guest: Taylor Rogers: Hurt? Bad luck? Yips?

Ben Clemens: I have not watched much of him but I watched an appearance where it looked like the yips to me

J: While the jury’s still out, seems everyone was way too quick to call the Bellinger signing a bust after a week, no? Plate discipline metrics are substantially better thus far.

Ben Clemens: Yeah uh, if someone is calling a signing a bust after a week, it’s definitely too quick

Ben Clemens: have they not followed how baseball works? the season is so long

bruins: Any reason to think that Bellinger’s 15% K percentage this season represents any meaningful change?

Ben Clemens: speaking of

Ben Clemens: I’m not exactly sure what to make of it. Bellinger is making contact on 83% of his swings OUTSIDE the zone

Ben Clemens: that’s super super weird

Ben Clemens: I’m definitely not discouraged by his start, but it feels like a lot of noise so far to me

Jay: I was interested / borderline excited about Clarke Schmidt coming into the season w/ the opportunity and the pitches he was throwing.  But here we are and he’s very hitable.  Optimism?  Cut bait?

Ben Clemens: I’d hold, but I’m generally too slow to cut bait, so take that witih a grain of salt

Hosmer: But my signing was a bust though.

Ben Clemens: How can a minor league minimum signing be a bust?

Ben Clemens: major league minimum, sorry

Ben Clemens: The reason I don’t like the Hosmer signing is because he’s blocking a really good palyer from playing and we have a lot of data on what Hosmer is, not b/c he’s batting .250/.318/.300 to start the year

Ben Clemens: he was what we thought he was, is my best guess

Jax: White Sox bullpen worst in the league by a wide margin, reason to panic or SSS?

Ben Clemens: SSS I think

Ben Clemens: lot of good arms in there still

Finnegan’s SSW: Justin Steele: Good!

Ben Clemens: Seems that way

Juan Soto: Please try and explain the struggles that go back to last year with the Padres.

Doug: Why am I perpetually waiting for Tatis to come back and save the Padres offense? How is adding Bogaerts and Soto still not enough?

Ben Clemens: Soto has been maddening in San Diego. This year he’s hitting the snot out of the ball there and getting nothing for it

Ben Clemens: last year he seemed like he was in a funk

Ben Clemens: I’m still bought in but man how can you have a 17% barrel rate and also a .179 babip? it’s mind-boggling

Ben Clemens: he’s walking 22% of the time! He’s hitting the crap out of the ball and not even at a bad launch angle

Ben Clemens: and yeah, it’s just not working

Warren: How much should we buy Bryce Elder’s early emergence?

Ben Clemens: I’ve been looking into him for a prospective article

Ben Clemens: I’m kinda in

Ben Clemens: but I want to do more research

Guest: Let’s say there’s a player who is a perfectly average corner outfielder (50’s across the board), but whose skills are guaranteed to never decline — he’s stuck as a 27-year-old forever, with perfect health. He’s also signed to a lifetime (ie, forever) contract at the league minimum salary. How would teams value such a player? Do you think he’d make the top 50 trade value piece?

Guest: (he also won’t get any better, he’ll always be average)

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he would make the list. If he was 10% above average across the board I think he would, but dead average is just not doing it

Ben Clemens: that player isn’t so dissimilar from Randy Arozarena, but clearly worse, and to me he’s a mainstay in the back half of the top 50

Guest: What happens to Jordan Hicks? I know he throws ball very hard but it seems like his best case scenario (on the Cardinals, at least) is like a 4 FIP reliever, but at worst he throws a lot more balls than strikes

Ben Clemens: He needs a change of scenery I think

Ben Clemens: not that it’ll definitely work out, but it just seems like it’s not gonna work in St. Louis

Chip: Speaking of Nasty Nestor, he’s a top ___ SP? I’m struggling to think of more than 10: Ohtani, DeGrom, Cole, Burnes, Max, Sandy, Castillo, McClanahan, Bieber?

Ben Clemens: I’d take Nola and Wheeler over him, Gausman and Strider too

Ben Clemens: Framber, Logan Webb

Ben Clemens: top 30? top 20?

Ben Clemens: I dunno, there are a lot of good pitchers!

Jacks: Luis Garcia has been rotten, it’s as simple as the new windup – right? Anything else under the hood here? Are we panicking at this point?

Ben Clemens: I’m with you!

Ben Clemens: let’s not overthink it, he used to have a unique windup that helped him out, now he’s not using it and he looks off

bosoxforlife: I think you are grossly underrating Randy Arozarena . He is just the type of winning player who is far more valuable than mere numbers.

Ben Clemens: That may be the case. I will tell you this…. everyone else is underrating him more, then. I have consistently been the highest on him of any talent evaluators I’ve talked to

Ben Clemens: Both of the past two years, he’s been in the top 50 trade value list and everyone I show it to is like ‘wait arozarena doesn’t belong’

Ben Clemens: and I just leave him there because I think they’re wrong

trent grisham believer: How much noise is there early in the “Spd” stat? Grisham is down quite a bit this season and hasn’t stolen a base yet, but the bat looks like a breakout season

Ben Clemens: I don’t really know how Spd works, but his top end sprint speed is down 1.5 ft/sec from last year

Ben Clemens: there’s tons of noise in running stats in general, because you can hit well if your pinkie toe hurts but you might not run well

Ben Clemens: I’d give that a bit more time to stabilize, and honestly his speed is mostly valuable as it translates to outfield defense anyway, so for me it comes down to whether he continues to play a good center field

Ben Clemens: early results are mixed

bosoxforlife: It must be safe to bring up prospects now and gain a year of service time, The Mets don’t have to put Escobar in the lineup any more.

Ben Clemens: I happen to think Escobar is a useful player, or well, I did before this year

Ben Clemens: he’s a dead average veteran, and I think most teams would be happy to have him as a utility guy

Ben Clemens: but clearly Baty should be up, I’m glad he is

Leland: I’m going to ask about the most talked about Seattle Mariner….Kolten Wong! Is this another one of his slow starts, or is there something to worry about?

Ben Clemens: Honestly I’m worried

Ben Clemens: His power is just gone gone gone

Ben Clemens: Not that he ever had a lot but he had SOME

Ben Clemens: now he has essentially zero, and that just will not play. His game works really well but the margins are thin, and if pitchers can just throw everything down main street and not even worry about a double, I don’t see it continuing to hold up

Leland: What do you think of Brent Honeywell looks really good so far and earning holds

Ben Clemens: Love him

Ben Clemens: Would be interested in him in a holds league

Mitchell: Why in the name of Abner Doubleday does Willie Calhoun – he of 82wRC+ & -2.7 fWAR over 950-some PAs at age 28 – continue to get opportunities to prove he’s not a Major League baseball player?

Ben Clemens: He has an enticing skillset, and teams really think they can turn him into a great hitter because it just feels so close

Ben Clemens: but if I were a team that was even sniffing contending, I’d pass

jj: E Ruiz has 5 HBP and just 3 BB, doesn’t seem like his .400 OBP is sustainable right?

Ben Clemens: Haha yeah, probably not gonna sustain a .400 OBP with so few walks

Guest: How does Lars Nootbaar have a positive UZR in CF when he’s had no plays there?

Ben Clemens: Wonderful question, and I have absolutely no idea what the answer is

Ben Clemens: We don’t use UZR for anything anymore, though

Ben Clemens: It’s just there as another defensive statistic you can look at if you want to

Pablo Lopez: Thoughts on his 4 year, $73.5M extension with the Twins?

Ben Clemens: We should write an article about that

Ben Clemens: I’ll get Dan Szymborski right on it, and it’ll come out tomorrow morning

Ben Clemens: (he already claimed it hours ago)

Reliever Watch: would love to see kolten wang get it together. not sure who the M’s run out at 2B if he doesn’t work out. Dylan Moore?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, Wong is gonna have a long leash

Ben Clemens: the team works a lot better if he works out

Fan: Does pitching finish consistency ,matter? I’ve noticed some guys sometimes have a huge leg kick after throwing a pitch and sometimes they don’t; or they finish in a different spot

Ben Clemens: This is definitely not my area of expertise. My guess is that some specific mechanical repetitions matter, something with your arm path and so on

Ben Clemens: in the same way that a follow through matters most for how it makes you release the ball

bosoxforlife: Pablo Lopez looks like he might have opened a new chapter in his career. He has looked very, very good.

Ben Clemens: Heck yeah

Ben Clemens: He looks awesome

Ben Clemens: So does Arraez

Ben Clemens: Someone should write about him too, I nominate Michael Baumann

Danny: Your thought on Bellinger getting a clock violation during a standing ovation? Can something like that be fixed mid-season?

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah that was awful and dumb, I’m thinking about throwing it in my 5 things article this week

Ben Clemens: like, c’mon ump, use some discretion

Chris: Nolan Gorman will finish the year with higher WAR than any other Cardinal

Ben Clemens: I’m not a believer to that extent

Ben Clemens: but my fantasy team would definitely be happy

Oaktown Blues: 3 of those Ruiz HBP came with 3 balls already, they were effectively walks

O’s ‘n Bohs: Is Felix Bautista’s splitter the best pitch in baseball? 92% whiff rate, just 2/46 put in play, 15 Ks, and impeccable location. Combined with 100+ heat at the top of the zone.

Ben Clemens: I don’t quite understand where the whiff rate is coming from, looks like pitch info has it at 80%, but yes, it’s one of the best pitches in baseball

Ben Clemens: 43.5% swinging strike rate, is that good?

jj: Wait just saw that E Ruiz got hit 27 times last year in the minors. That’s impressive

Ben Clemens: He’s going to get hit a lot. He’s not Locastro or anything but it’s definitely a part of his skillset, just like Kolten Wong, to bring up AL West guys who need to get some OBP to make their games work

ENVB: I know that elbows and shoulders aren’t exactly brains, but is there any reckoning for what being an MLB pitcher does to a guy’s arm for the rest of their life, in the way that at least some people are finding fault with the NFL for damaging their players’ health?

Ben Clemens: I dunno, I hestiate to say ‘no we won’t care about the damage we do to people’ because that’s a pretty dumb default stance to have, but these injuries feel categorically different to em

Ben Clemens: me*

JaysFanInLondon: Is Yusei Kikuchi a breakout or about to turn back into a pumpkin?

Ben Clemens: I’m sorry to say it, Jays fans, but I’m on ‘turn back into a pumpkin’

Ben Clemens: nice fifth starter, probably not a ton more than that

J: What team has your opinion changed most on this year vs. preseason?

Ben Clemens: It’s a cop out but the Rays

Ben Clemens: they’re 14-2, it’d be silly for me not to have changed my opinion

Ben Clemens: They have looked really good, in both small sample and quick-stabilizing ways

Ben Clemens: and if Franco is breaking out this year, wow

Ben Clemens: that’d be fun

Ben Clemens: Runner up: the Pirates

Ben Clemens: loving the Cutch resurgence, I don’t think they’re a playoff team but they’re a lot more fun than I expected

Andrew Vaughn: Vaughn’s launch angle keeps going down despite his alleged efforts to raise it. Do you think it’s a matter of velocity and just getting bat to ball? Why explanations exist for his angle going in the wrong direction?

Ben Clemens: I truly do not know

Ben Clemens: I do think that it’s early to reach any sweeping conclusions, but obviously you don’t come to a baseball chat at an analytical website to get ‘ignore the data’ as an answer

bosoxforlife: Ben, you need to look up Ron Hunt. He dove in front of Drysdale fastballs to get hit. 7 straight seasons leading the league including 50 one year.

Ben Clemens: wow that 50 hbp year is really something

Ben Clemens: nice .279/.402/.358 line with a 9% walk rate

Ben Clemens: that said, Drysdale is not famous for NOT hitting batters

Ben Clemens: so I would imagine that some of those fastballs Hunt wore would have hit anyone

Ben Clemens: I have a complicated relationship with high-HBP guys. There’s a fine line between neat and unheralded skill and exploit

Jake S: Is there any science behind what part of the ball is best to hit? Assuming all things are equal (EV, LA, etc.), does it matter if you hit a seam, the horseshoe leather, some other part? There’s no way you could actually impact that, of course, but still would be interesting (maybe just to me alone).

Ben Clemens: I’ve never seen any, but if I do I’ll try to mention it in the chat, because I also find that very interesting

Ben Clemens: Alright, gotta go get some lunch going, and hopefully finish watching this darn red sox angels game

Ben Clemens: have a great week, everyone