Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/21/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: I’m chatting from my vacation home in the woods today, so a slightly lower-tech setup, but certainly a more peaceful one. I’m gonna keep the chat to around an hour, but strive to answer as much as I can for that hour. Let’s get started

Ryan: Tatis is playing out of his mind right now. When he’s right is he the best overall player in baseball outside of Ohtani?

Ben Clemens: Gotta have Judge ahead of him, I think. Not that Tatis isn’t great, I’m a huge fan… but Judge has been the best-performing baseball player for years now. Ohtani might have more raw talent but c’mon, these hitting numbers, absurd

Jordan: Is there any hope for the Pirates? Seems like they’re totally lost and going to clean house by the end of the season.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, it feels very bad

Ben Clemens: We came into the year saying ‘this doesn’t look like a real major league offense’

Ben Clemens: and I mean….

Johnny5Alive: So… the Mets huh? Can you imagine what the team is going to do when the bats other than Alonso actually wake up AND they get healthy? Its still early, but remember, they were picked to finish 3rd in their division and had relatively low pre-season playoff odds especially when considering coming off of last season.

Ben Clemens: ‘they were picked to finish third in their division’ I mean, by some people maybe

Ben Clemens: they were a super trendy world series pick, great preseason odds, they are indeed very good

Ben Clemens: Only three teams in all of baseball had higher preseason win total markets

Ben Clemens: but yeah, they’re good

Phil: Since the start of the season, Meidroth is up and Teel and Montgomery seem not far away, and Crochet is signed for a good while. Has your assessment of the trade changed at all?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I feel better about it for everyone, essentially

Ben Clemens: When I wrote the trade up, I said that it wouldn’t be a win for the Red Sox unless they did the logical thing and extended Crochet

Ben Clemens: that happened, and the White Sox did well on their return, just seems like a win-win to me

J: Moises Ballesteros absolutely raking in AAA at age 21. Good call in your 2024 Less-Heralded Hitting Prospects article.

Ben Clemens: oh man, always love to see his name mentioned

Ben Clemens: what a fun player

Bullock: Do relievers converting into starters just not experience the same innings limitations that prospects or back from injury guys do?

Ben Clemens: I mean, objectively they sure seem to

Ben Clemens: Jordan Hicks ended last season back in the bullpen. Reynaldo Lopez collapsed down the stretch. Crochet didn’t pitch more than 4 innings after the start of July

Ben Clemens: we’ll see what Clay Holmes ends up doing but recent history would suggest that a full year is unrealistic

Kyle: What did you of Acuna calling out Snit for his lack of discipline on Kelenic getting thrown out at second after pimping a single?

Ben Clemens: Felt pretty fair to me!

Ben Clemens: Acuna has gotten a lot of crap about hustle throughout his career. Now another less good player does it and gets a free pass?

Ben Clemens: Feels a lot like favoritism even if it isn’t meant to be

David Wiers: While not the best player, is Elly maybe the most fun to watch on both sides of the ball and base paths?

Ben Clemens: Yes he is

Ben Clemens: If there were a five things all stars, he’d be number one

Bingo was a dog: When do I stash Kurtz ?

Ben Clemens: probably now, tbh. Rooker has played the outfield three times in the last week

Bosoxforlife: What has happened to the bullpens? Clase is 3-0 because he is blowing saves and vulturing wins, Williams was lit up again on Saturday and the Cubs – D’Backs game was a classic. I lose my mind when Williams wasn’t charged with ablown save because he came in leading by 4 and it wasn’t a “save” opportunity. Maybe there should be a new stat called “explosion”.

Ben Clemens: hey, we already have meltdowns

Ben Clemens: (when a reliever’s appearance causes a team’s chances of winning the game by at least 10%)

Ben Clemens: Williams has three meltdowns to one shutdown (+10% WP) this year

Ben Clemens: so I think it’s basically capturing what you’re talking about

Matthew: what would you do if you’re the O’s right now?  Pray Morton becomes serviceable?  Give some run to Brandon Young and (when healthy) McDermott to try to get a shot in the arm until guys get healthy?

Ben Clemens: It’s tricky here because I’m clearly not the O’s. I’ve written a lot of “If I were the O’s I’d be more aggressive about adding pitching” articles in the past three years, clearly I don’t think the same as them

Ben Clemens: but like…. why aren’t they trading for or signing starters?

Ben Clemens: I’m honestly enjoying the Sugano experience, but it’s in a ‘how the hell is he okay instead of awful’ way

Ben Clemens: that man is getting squared up left and right

Buccos: Why don’t they just move Cruz to 3B and Hayes to SS? Like yeah, you’d be moving two players instead of one, but I’m infinitely more confident in Hayes at short than in Cruz in center. And it’d make Hayes’ bat way more palpable too.

Ben Clemens: I have to assume they don’t think this will work, because I’m with you, it felt like the obvious move last year

Ben Clemens: Basically I think there’s some idiosyncratic reason for this, because it makes too much sense for them not to have thought about

Ben Clemens: so they thought about it and didn’t do it

GA Blood: Who had the Reds to score the most runs in a game this season AND do it on the road?

Ben Clemens: haha right? I’m not so surprised that it was the Reds, but I’m very surprised they did it on the road

Mike Lommler: The video of Chandler Simpson beating out the infield hit against Fried looks doctored. Hope he has a good season so he can be the staple of 5 things that he is clearly meant to be.

Ben Clemens: Couldn’t agree more. I’m already working on some Chandler Simpson content, in fact

Okra: Rays are being far too cute benching Aranda and his 20% barrel rate vs lefties.  The guys they are benching him for are crap and at some you have let your promising young players play.

Ben Clemens: you are preaching to the choir

Ben Clemens: hey, another member of the Ben Clemens unheralded hitters crew

Ben Clemens: but like… we have four years of evidence that this guy hits

Ben Clemens: so let him hit

Bullock: All 5 of the O’s SPs have FIP > 5.20!  I love Eflin, but I think this year’s rotation is a lost cause.  Gonna sell off all the loose parts this summer, rebuild the prospect hoard, and “contend” for another 3-5 years

Ben Clemens: If the O’s are sellers this summer, the front office should be fired

Ben Clemens: you cannot get this far into the Adley/Gunnar cheap years and be trading for future considerations

Ben Clemens: I feel very strongly about that

Jim: What should the A’s do about their outfield defense? Bleday is a terrible defensive CFer. Andujar and Brown can’t cover ground in LF. And Butler is not terrible, but not great in RF. Denzel Clarke isn’t ready for the MLB.

Ben Clemens: I’d play Rooker in left because how much worse can he be than Andujar and Brown?

Ben Clemens: they can’t even hit!

Ben Clemens: their combined wRC+ doesn’t add up to 100

Ben Clemens: what are we doing here?

Jewish Pache: Hi Ben! A little later into the season, when I need a 15 second check on how legit a hitter has been, I’ll check wOBA vs xwOBA. Obviously, many shortcomings here, but most notably for pulled fly ball specialists. Do you have any go-to stats to check in on hitters like that where simple contact quality doesn’t tell the story?

Ben Clemens: it’s really hard, and a very good question. I agree that it’s a nice first pass, and also agree that you have to be aware of the shortcomings. I do like checking out the expected homers thing on Statcast, at least in the second half of the year, b/c that does a good job of accounting for the spray angle side of things. Basically I first look at wOBA vs. xwOBA and then if someone is a big outlier, I look for why they might be

Guest: It seemed like the HP ump made a lot of mis-called strikes to Altuve last night.  Or, was I imagineering?

Ben Clemens: I concur. I thought the zone was all over the place in that game, actually

Ben Clemens: also Altuve is one of the hardest zones to call. He’s small, he does the crouch, but then he opens up and swings at high stuff a lot

Bosoxforlife: Are adjustments made to the run differential stat when a team scores a large number of runs off position players tossing up stuff I could still hit at 83?

Ben Clemens: They aren’t but we’ve discussed a few different ways to do it

Ben Clemens: Tom Tango had a thing about re-weighting pythagorean expectation by game, so that a 24-2 game would count as ‘one probabilistic win’ more or less, but so would a 16-2 game

Okra: Why exactly did the Red Sox sign Ceddanne to that big extension?  His plate discipline is so horrible and always has been.  Why commit $50M to hopes and prayers when Myles Straw is free?

Ben Clemens: I tend to agree with you, but it’s tricky for me to opine on this because I’ve had that view from the start

Ben Clemens: Let me put it this way: Bill James thought Rafaela deserved the AL Rookie of the Year last year. Bill James is both the most famous baseball analyst alive and has been a Red Sox consultant in the past. Plenty of people whose baseball opinions are held in high esteem see something in Rafaela that I simply don’t

MilwaukeeBeerJays: That NL WEST is SPICY! Can the Giants keep it up for the long haul? I Think the non-colorado teams have more talent overall than the giants, but some of their FA signings are looking good: Chapman, Verlander, Ray

Josh R: At one point over the weekend the NL West had the 4 best records in the sport. For a good chunk of the season the division has had the 3 best records in the sport. How is this going to play out?

Ben Clemens: The NL West is going to be a great race this year

Ben Clemens: Obviously the Dodgers remain strong favorites to just tromp over everyone for the division title, but a)the wild cards are going to be exciting and b)divisional games are FUN when the teams are all good

Ben Clemens: I’m planning on seeing the Padres, Dodgers, and DBacks in SF this year, and I bet the atmosphere will be great at all of these

Ben Clemens: and re: the Giants in particular, I think they have a good shot of being real contenders this year. It’s not like they were that far off in the first place and they’ve had a few meaningful improvements to the team imo, particularly JHL mashing

Jim: But what about Bleday, who may be the worst defensive CFer in MLB?

Ben Clemens: well… I don’t actually think he’s the worst, just very bad

Ben Clemens: but I don’t see a lot of options here. There are no plausible CF’s on the horizon unless you think Clarke is ready for the bigs, and I don’t really

GA Blood: Whatever happened to the planned revisiting of positional adjustments in the WAR calculation?

Ben Clemens: not canceled, just delayed

Ben Clemens: we still have a working group, just everyone’s get ready for the seasons activities took longer than we all expected

Guest: Do you predict C Walker will get out of his funk and stay at his “average” at some point.  He even screwed up 3 picks last night.

Ben Clemens: I yelped at the first one and my wife was like ‘that looks like a normal play?’

Ben Clemens: but it’s Christian Walker!

Ben Clemens: uh, I’m worried. Very worried. Little bit of a Bayesian kind of deal – I was worried in the preseason b/c I felt Walker’s game had less room to decline than your average 1B free agent signing

Ben Clemens: so this start is confirming my priors, rather than challenging them

MilwaukeeBeerJays: I saw a game in SF last year. 23 bucks for a beer! This timeline are ouch.

Ben Clemens: Wait really? My wife’s from Milwaukee so we go to a ton of Brewers games and we have always marveled at the fact that beers are cheaper in SF than MIL

Ben Clemens: but maybe the Giants have jacked up prices and I missed it?

Ben Clemens: I definitely remember the sticker shock when I got a beer at a local bar before the game in Wauwatosa ($6) and then a local microbrew at the game ($19)

Sad O’s fan: How many times can Elias and co. be humiliated by their pitching and general roster building decisions before they decide to try something, anything differently. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are signing young stars to extensions, trading and or signing high impact talent, and meanwhile Elias is saying they “didnt plan for” Grayson and Eflin to be hurt?

Ben Clemens: Look, someone needs to hold them accountable or it seems clear that they won’t change

Ben Clemens: I truly do not understand why they persist in their ways, but they do

Bosoxforlife: It is becoming more and more apparent that Casas isn’t going to get the job done. There are still plenty of OF options so is it time to put a 1st baseman’s glove on Anthony’s hand even though that would make him a dreaded right-right 1st baseman like Paul Goldschmidt or Pete Alonso.

Ben Clemens: Honestly, I think I’d be more interested in DH’ing him with Devers at first if they want to phase Casas out

Ben Clemens: because long term, I don’t want Roman Anthony’s athleticism at first base. And long-term, I do want Devers there if Casas isn’t in the picture

AthleticsFan2195: Andujar’s wRC+ is at 115 and Brown is at 90, unless I am missing something which I usually am. Just flagging because while Andujar is a bad defender he is kinda hitting. Not enough to outweigh the glove though.

Ben Clemens: Oof yeah! I added up PA’s on roster resource instead of wRC+

Ben Clemens: doesn’t change my opinion of why they are playing them but, whoops

Oaktown Blues: How worried should I be that Jacob Wilson has yet to take a walk?

Ben Clemens: I mean, I’m worried

Ben Clemens: Wilson would be a “less-heralded hitter I like” if he weren’t heralded

Ben Clemens: my minor league hitting models absolutely drool about him

Ben Clemens: but yeah, you have to take some walks if you don’t hit for ANY power

Ben Clemens: I’d be very worried. I am very worried

GA Blood: Two things I liked from over the weekend: 1) Watching my first Angels game of the year to see some Mike Trout and having him reward me by hitting two absolute missiles into the seats. 2) Javier Sanoja hitting his first career homer on a letter-high fastball from Kerkering, because if you took away the result the swing looked like he was hitting an oppo ground ball. Baseball is beautiful.

MR: So, Mike Trout hits bombs and whiffs and almost nothing else, now.  Is this just, pardon the pun, getting back in the swing of things?

Ben Clemens: I keep a notes doc with ideas for Five Things and the Trout two homer game is on there

Ben Clemens: he’s fun to watch, and yeah, I also love that that game was 3-2 and he almost hit another solo homer to tie it

MagicOriole: What pitchers are the Orioles supposed to be singing and trading for? Garrett Crochet is fair, but who else is really out there availible and good?

Ben Clemens: Crochet, Dylan Cease, Sandy Alcantara, retain Burnes, sign Fried, Sonny Gray, hell, trade for Erick Fedde at the deadline last year or trade for him now

Ben Clemens: call the Twins and make them an offer they can’t refuse

Ben Clemens: other teams in baseball manage to add pitching every year

Jim: Just about everything game I see on TV has a bunch of empty seats behind home plate. I know a lot of those are likely corporate season ticket holders or belong to the owner. But shouldn’t MLB do something so it doesn’t look like nobody wants to go to games?

Ben Clemens: I totally agree

Ben Clemens: I remark on it quite a lot

Red: What is Trent Grisham doing differently? Do we think hes different or just hot?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a bit of both

Ben Clemens: or like… I think that Grisham is a lot better than he showed last year

Ben Clemens: and I also concur with the Yankees broadcast that some of that is probably because he’s used to playing every day

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s as good as he’s been in 2025, but I do think he’s more a 100-110 wRC+ guy than a below average hitter

Ben Clemens: I love that he’s tapping into his pull side power and he’s always had a good eye

Guy who has only seen the 2024 Blue Jays: Getting a lot of 2024 Blue Jays vibes from the 2025 Orioles

Ben Clemens: amazing username

Greg: Team more likely to make the playoffs in the next 5 years: White Sox or Pirates?

Ben Clemens: Oh wow. I think I’ll say Pirates but with very little confidence

Andrew: Long term outlook for Ben Rice?

Ben Clemens: first division first baseman, not an MVP candidate but occasional all star games

Robbie Boyfred: Nolan Arenado and Lara Nootbar for a package built around Bobby Miller and Andy Pages. Who says no?

Ben Clemens: oh man, getting the SoCal kids back to SoCal

Ben Clemens: I think the Dodgers would probably say no, depending on how Arenado’s contract gets handled, but I could see the Cardinals being unwilling to move Nootbaar given that he’s one of their best few players and they want to compete again soon

Ben Clemens: I think the value is at least in the ballpark of right, and probably I’d prefer the Miller/Pages side in a vacuum, so it’d just be about the contract and whether St. Louis is okay trading away more outfielders with huge potential. Their previous outfielder trades have gone mostly badly

Bullock: Worry level on Tanner Bibee?  4.6 K-BB% seems worrisome

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m up to an 8/10 on the worry scale

Ben Clemens: He is just not fooling anyone right now

Ben Clemens: incredibly low chase rates, not missing bats, it’s ugly

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s a coincidence that every pitching model says his fastball has no juice this year

Bosoxforlife: I misspoke about Anthony earlier. He throws right but hits left. Does the 1st base penalty only apply to right-right which seems foolish because what difference does it make which side of the plate a player hits from?

Ben Clemens: In my opinion, it’s because lefties have more paths to usefulness as platoon bats even if they only play first

Ben Clemens: a lefty-hitting first baseman who can’t hit lefties? You can work with that

Ben Clemens: A righty-hitting first baseman who can’t hit righties? Hard to keep on your roster for that role only, he better be able to help out elsewhere too

Judge: So like he’s just gonna Be This Hitter now?

Ben Clemens: I mean…. yes?

Ben Clemens: Seems like this is just who he is

Mr red legs: Last year you analyzed April stolen base rates vs 2023. Have you looked at 2025?

Ben Clemens: no, but that sounds like a fun article

Rick Danger: Who is most responsible for the Mets pitching success? Stearns for finding the guys, Hefner for coaching them up, or Uncle Stevie for upgrading the whole player development/coaching apparatus? And is it sustainable?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d go Hefner first, then Stearns, then Cohen, but with good credit to all

Ben Clemens: upgrading the whole apparatus was necessary

Ben Clemens: and what the Mets have done with it has looked good so far

Ghost of Wade Boggs: What are your thoughts on Jacob Young – is he part of the Nat’s long term plans or is he most likely trade piece for them?

Ben Clemens: I think the most likely outcome is a trade piece because the optimal version of this nats team has Crews in center

Ben Clemens: that said, he’s a really good trade piece in my opinion. He’s a truly elite CF defender

Cal Raleigh HR hitter: Am I an MVP canidate?

Ben Clemens: Probably not, because it’s just hard to win MVP as a catcher. But I’ll point out that Eric Longenhagen (I think?) had his bold prediction as a catcher winning MVP this year

Fredbird: When Masyn Winn comes off the IL tomorrow(?) who are you sending down?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d send down Gorman, quite frankly

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll probably send down Saggese

Ben Clemens: but that feels wrong to me

Ben Clemens: I think it needs to be an infielder, though. And I doubt they’ll send down Luken Baker, another option I’d be fine with

Ben Clemens: given that they seem to like the team having extra 1b-ish options

Dirk: Am I correct in assuming there isn’t a database that links games with the jerseys worn by the teams playing in them? I’d love to know how many games in MLB history had both teams wearing vest-style jerseys but from some digging it doesn’t seem like there is one.

Ben Clemens: Haha, sadly I don’t know of one

Rosen: In the Soto article, Rosen casually said Judge was the best hitter since integration (which is not IRRELEVANT for, you know, him). You can quibble with “is Williams before or after since he’s both” and of course The Bonds Thing, but at his very best offensively, is it crazy for that to be possibly true?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think it’s Bonds

Ben Clemens: I do not think it’s possibly true because of Bonds. But I think he’s one of the top 3 post-integration hitters for sure

Okra: what do the A’s need to give the Nats for Jacob Young?

Ben Clemens: This trade has come up in this chat before (perhaps even by you?). I love it. Trade them Bleday! I’m sure the Nats would love a tooled up former top prospect, it’s their whole vibe

Mickey Mantle BUNTED: Thoughts on Emmanuel Clase?

Ben Clemens: Still good imo

Bosoxforlife: Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella, each with 3 MVP’s, would like to have a word with you.

Ben Clemens: Sure, but you know, that was a long time ago

Ben Clemens: modern catching workloads are not the same

Pasquatch: My EV, max EV, and hard hit % are all down, LA way up, whiffing a lot more, making way less contact, and when I do make contact it’s much weaker. Am I hurt or just bad now?

Ben Clemens: I’m leaning hurt

Ben Clemens: but like…. just leaning

Matt Holliday: Do you believe in Jackson any more today than at this point last year? I’d love to see the kid inch up towards .275 BA.

Ben Clemens: I have to ask, where is the hellacious bat speed we were all promised from Holliday?

Ben Clemens: like we had 60 raw 60 game power on this guy, and I think we might have been the low outlet on his power potential

Ben Clemens: and he’s just like…. cruising along below league average swing speed, not much thunder

Ben Clemens: very strange

Ben Clemens: I think I am higher on his odds of being at least a capable major leaguer but lower on his odds of being a star

Frankie: Which NY team are you buying more to keep the early season success pace?

Ben Clemens: I think the Yankees. I’m skeptical of the Mets’ ability to keep ahead of the pitching injury eight ball

Ben Clemens: but…. they might hit enough that it doesn’t matter

DeeBo: Matt Chapman HoF odds? 38 WAR thru age 32 season and if the defensive ability holds up, he could have a few big WAR years left in him. Either way, odds certainly look at least as high as someone like Marcus Semien right now

DeeBo: Re: Chapman, I meant thru age 31* season

Ben Clemens: yeah if he is close to his 2024 form in the next two years, then his peak is starting to look both lengthy and good

Ben Clemens: It’s a bit awkward b/c his down phase was right in the middle of two peaks, which means that the seven-year standard doesn’t really pop for him

Ben Clemens: but if he ends up in the 55-60 WAR area, which is unlikely but certainly possible given his age and recent pedigree, I think you’d have to put him in for the generational defense

Ben Clemens: to be clear, to get to 55-60 WAR he’ll have to rack up more defensive accolades

Ham Fighter: Thanks for writing that article about the Brewers ugly start, got them right back on track.

Ben Clemens: any time

Ben Clemens: that was one of the worst four-game stretches you can imagine

Ben Clemens: luckily it was four games

Bob: Mets Acuna seems like he’s a major league hitter recently. With the injury to Siri, will Acuna get a chance to show what he can do at this level in CF. His speed on the bases is a welcome addition to the Mets offense. Baty has also looked a little better as a hitter recently. The offense might finally be heating up.

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think that the path of least resistance is McNeil 2B Acuna CF

Ben Clemens: I don’t know if I buy Acuna as an impact bat, but hoenstly I don’t really care? I definitely think he’s a skilled defender and gifted baserunner

Bosoxforlife: Is the failure of Julio Rodriquez to find his footing beginning to concern you?

Ben Clemens: I’m willing to give him longer given that his contact quality is still excellent, and it feels like he’s mainly just suffering from a BABIP hole. Like, I don’t think he’ll always babip .330 like his career average but he’s a naturally high-babip hitter imo

Ben Clemens: but like, this year is a put up or shut up one, for sure

johnnyheller: thoughts on A Verdugo in Atlanta? He might be a season long staple in their OF…

Ben Clemens: yeah a staple of the Braves in recent years has been some random veteran turning into their best option in an outfield corner

Ben Clemens: and then getting a crazy amount of PT

Ben Clemens: so I am in on him being that guy

Toronto: I’d love to see us trade Bo and Bassitt to retool but it’s looking like we’ll be buyers at the deadline. Do you see the jays going after Alcantara? Seems like we always miss out so we’ll probably end up with a Tony Gonsolin type.

Ben Clemens: Yeah i think buying at the deadline is most likely unless they’re way out of it

Ben Clemens: but honestly, I’d be interested in Gonsolin!

Ben Clemens: he’s this generation’s Ross Stripling (complimentary)

Matt: Andrew Abbott has missed a lot more bats in his two starts so far than he has in his past. Change-up usage is up but fastball velo is down. As someone who has never been too high on Abbott, should I put more stock into him learning how to pitch?

Ben Clemens: probably but I’d also give him, say, two more starts

Ben Clemens: because everyone can walk into their changeup missing extra bats for a start or two

Sven Clemens: are you out on taj Bradley? the stuff is not as advertised and the command grades poorly by models despite the walk rates

Ben Clemens: I’m leaning out

Ben Clemens: remember, a key part of being an analyst is being wishy-washy in your conclusions because baseball is fundamentally variable and unknowable

Ben Clemens: and on that lovely note, it’s time for me to go pick up some pinecones in the yard

Ben Clemens: wait, one last answer first!

Phil: How come different people win the running marathon every year but the wheelchair race has alternated between two guys for like 15 years? Is it just that the talent pool is smaller?

Ben Clemens: yeah that’d be my guess

Ben Clemens: it’s like the race for the ERA title vs. the race for the ERA title among knuckleballers, or something. one group has a much more constrained population so a standout athlete stands out more

Ben Clemens: alright, have a great day everyone