FanGraphs Power Rankings: April 14–20

As we enter the third week of April, we’re getting to the point where the early-season mirages are beginning to fade. Some of the surprising hot starts are sputtering out and reality is setting in. I’m trying out a bit of a different format for power rankings today, with shorter blurbs for every team that are more focused on what happened over the past week.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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The Dodgers had a great week; they swept the Rockies at home and then took two of three from the Rangers on the road. They’re still dealing with a number of issues in their rotation — Tyler Glasnow left his start on Sunday early, though it sounds like he avoided a serious injury — but there’s good news on the horizon, too. Clayton Kershaw started a rehab assignment last week, Tony Gonsolin is nearing the end of his rehab, and Blake Snell threw a pain-free bullpen session over the weekend. And all those injury concerns can be glossed over a bit because Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been absolutely dominant; he’s allowed just four runs total across his first five starts.

The Mets swept the Cardinals in four games over the weekend and now find themselves leading the Phillies by two games in the NL East standings. Francisco Lindor’s dramatics and Pete Alonso’s hot bat have covered for a slowish start from Juan Soto — if you want to call a .359 wOBA “slow.” They have some issues to sort out in center field, but the impending return of Jeff McNeil should help provide some depth and versatility to the lineup.

The Padres managed to eke out a win against the Astros on Sunday night to avoid getting swept in their tightly contested weekend series. They’ll have to figure out how to keep their early-season hot streak going without several key players; Jake Cronenworth and Jackson Merrill have been out for about two weeks, and they were joined on the IL last week by outfielders Brandon Lockridge and Jason Heyward. Fortunately, it seems that Luis Arraez avoided a serious injury on Sunday night, when he had to be taken to the hospital after a scary collision with Mauricio Dubón at first base that initially had left the three-time batting champion motionless. He was released from the hospital after undergoing tests and is expected to rejoin the team on Monday, though it’s unclear how soon he’ll be cleared to play.

The Yankees jumped to the top of the AL East with a 6-1 week after sweeping the Royals and winning a four-game series over the Rays. Max Fried was brilliant in his no-hit bid that wasn’t on Sunday and has really stabilized a rotation that lost both Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil during the spring.

It was a ho-hum 3-3 week for the Cubs, but they received some bad news on the injury front: Justin Steele will miss the rest of the season after undergoing elbow surgery on Friday. They proved their resilience in an absolutely wild Friday night slugfest against the Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field, where 21 runs were scored after the sixth inning in an eventual 13-11 Chicago victory.

The Phillies went 4-3 last week and barely managed to keep pace with the Mets. Bryce Harper caught fire last week, when he posted a .320/.469/.760 slash line with three home runs and a 229 wRC+. Meanwhile, notorious slow starter Kyle Schwarber is slashing .269/.424/.577 with seven homers and a 176 wRC+ so far this season.

That wild 13-11 game in Chicago was a killer for the Diamondbacks, who somehow lost despite scoring 10 runs in the eighth inning to take an 11-7 lead. Arizona also dropped Saturday’s game before narrowly avoiding a sweep with an extra-innings win on Sunday.

The Rangers treated us to an incredibly competitive series against the Dodgers over the weekend, the highlight of which was the pitchers duel between Yamamoto and Jacob deGrom on Friday. Texas was shut out in both of its losses in the series, but the team should be encouraged that its pitching staff limited the potent Dodgers lineup to a total of seven runs across the three games.

The Mariners won their fourth straight series after going 4-2 against the Reds and Blue Jays last week. Two of those victories came in extra innings after some late heroics salvaged some shoddy relief pitching. Cal Raleigh is making a strong case as an early season MVP candidate; he dumped four home runs into the stands last week.

An unfortunate walk-off loss to the Angels on Sunday spoiled the Giants’ week. They’re still in the thick of the crowded NL West, but now a step behind the Dodgers and Padres. If you’re searching for signs that this early success is sustainable, look no further than Jung Hoo Lee; he’s been absolutely phenomenal to start the season, posting a 172 wRC+ so far. On the mound, Logan Webb has been just as good, and San Francisco even enjoyed a vintage start from Justin Verlander on Sunday. He went six innings and allowed one run while striking out six before closer Ryan Walker blew the save with four runs in the ninth inning.

After taking three of four from the Royals over the weekend, the Tigers look like the team to beat in the AL Central. They are the only one in the division with a positive run differential. Most encouraging is that Spencer Torkelson continues to rake, collecting another pair of home runs last week and pushing his wRC+ up to 193.

The Braves started the climb out of their early-season hole with a weekend sweep of the Twins. Alex Verdugo provided a spark at the top of the lineup after being called up on Friday; he went 5-for-14 with two doubles in the three-game series. In other good news, Spencer Strider made his first start of the season earlier in the week. He went five-plus innings with five strikeouts in a 3-1 loss to the Blue Jays, throwing 97 pitches and topping out at 97.9 mph.

The Blue Jays’ hold on the AL East lead was short lived after a 3-3 week, but they can’t feel too bad about their second-place position in the standings. Oh, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally hit his first home run of the season on Wednesday, lifting that one weird weight off his shoulders.

It’s been a slow start to the season for the Astros, but maybe their series win over the Padres is what they needed to turn things around. They probably need to look into whether or not first base is cursed in Houston; Christian Walker has really struggled to start the season, posting a 63 wRC+ so far with just a pair of home runs.

The Brewers ran out a thread-bare rotation to start the season, but they are suddenly about to be swimming in pitchers. Tobias Myers is scheduled to be activated from the IL this week and Brandon Woodruff shouldn’t be far behind. Milwaukee weathered that early-season storm and managed to keep pace just behind the Cubs in the NL Central.

After a bit of a slip two weeks ago, the Red Sox went 4-2 last week to get back on track. The most encouraging sight has been the early success of Trevor Story. Finally healthy, he’s posted a 146 wRC+ with five home runs and six stolen bases, and along with rookie Kristian Campbell (156 wRC+), he has stabilized Boston’s middle infield and lengthened the lineup.

I will admit to underrating the Guardians this year; they’ve won nine of their last 12 games and are just a half-game behind the Tigers in the AL Central. They swept the Pirates over the weekend to cap off what has been the softest schedule to start the season. Things will get a little harder this week as they start a long homestand against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Twins.

The Reds scored 24 runs in a massive beatdown against the Orioles on Sunday. With the starting pitching earning all of the early-season plaudits, it was nice to see the Cincinnati bats finally wake up.

The Orioles are feeling the ill effects of a neglected starting rotation. Yes, Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez are both on the IL, but it’s not just a lack of depth that’s hurting the O’s. They are also lacking the frontline production that Corbin Burnes provided last season. Baltimore starters allowed 25 runs in six games last week, and it’s become glaringly clear that 41-year-old Charlie Morton isn’t the solution.

The Angels’ dream start to the season took a blow when the Rangers swept them in three games early last week. They rebounded a bit over the weekend to secure a series victory over the Giants in dramatic fashion, scoring four runs in the ninth inning for their first walk-off win of the season. Mike Trout smacked two more home runs over the weekend — both of which naturally came in the one game the Halos lost — and he now has eight on the season, second most in the majors. He’s slashing just .184/.289/.513, though much of that wonky line can be attributed to his ridiculously low .133 BABIP; his .277 xBA and .681 xSLG further suggest that he’s been incredibly unlucky this season. Just as he’s bound to get hot as the season goes on and the small-sample-size noise quiets down, it’s likely only a matter of time before the Angels’ good fortune runs out and the team slides down the standings for good.

The Rays’ temporary move to George M. Steinbrenner Field this season has caused some scheduling quirks. Because they are trying to fit as many home games in as possible while the weather is still pleasant in Florida, they’ve only played three road games thus far. That changes this week as they embark on their first big road trip of the season, which comes after they went 2-5 last week against the Red Sox and Yankees.

The Royals managed just a single win last week, a come-from-behind, extra-innings victory on Sunday to barely avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Tigers. What’s more concerning is that Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia are the only two players on their roster with wOBAs over .300. At 2.91 runs per game, Kansas City has the worst offense in the majors.

One step forward, two steps back for the Cardinals last week; they won a series against the Astros but were then swept by the Mets in four games over the weekend. The resurgence of Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado has offered St. Louis some hope, but the majority of this roster has been pretty lackluster.

I’ll give the Athletics credit, they know how to put some lopsided score lines together. They’ve played nine games decided by five or more runs, and have gone 4-5 in those games. Three of those blowouts came last week — with scores of 12-3, 8-0, and 14-1 — and the A’s won two of them. Tyler Soderstrom hit three more home runs, bringing his league-leading total to nine and his wRC+ to 191.

Since joining the Twins in 2022, Carlos Correa had never batted lower than fourth in the lineup until last week, when he was dropped to fifth during his ongoing slow start. He responded with four hits over the weekend including his first home run of the season. Minnesota lost all three games anyway.

The Marlins had gotten off to a better-than-expected start to the season until they ran into the Diamondbacks and Phillies last week. They emerged from those two series with just a single win, an extra-innings victory on Sunday. They did activate Jesús Sánchez and Connor Norby off the IL last week, so their lineup should be getting a little stronger.

The Pirates managed to win three of four from the Nationals last week, but their success was negated when they were swept by the Guardians over the weekend. Paul Skenes continues to dominate — a potential matchup against Yamamoto and the Dodgers on Friday promises to be must-see TV — and the rest of the pitching staff looks pretty good, though their offense remains a major issue. Only three Pirates are above league average at the plate: Oneil Cruz (125 wRC+), Joey Bart (129), and Enmanuel Valdez (115). Speaking of Cruz, his center field defense is still a work-in-progress.

James Wood has very quickly established himself as a future star with his hot start to the season. He blasted a pair of home runs last week and his wRC+ is now up to 139. The power he’s displaying is reminiscent of a young Juan Soto, and he looks like a strong foundation for the Nationals to build around.

It’s hard to imagine, but the White Sox are playing behind the pace of their historically inept 2024 team. They’ve won just five games so far. At least they’re giving some of their youngsters the opportunity to get experience in the big leagues. Catcher Edgar Quero was their latest call-up last week, and he collected his first hit on Friday.

There’s one team that’s been even worse than the White Sox: the Rockies. It was an eventful week in Colorado, as the Rockies placed Kris Bryant on the IL with a degenerative back injury, and there are real questions about whether or not he’ll ever play regularly again. They also fired their hitting coach and replaced him with Clint Hurdle, the former manager who led the franchise to its lone World Series appearance nearly two decades ago. Mercifully, on Sunday, the Rockies snapped their eight-game losing streak with a 3-1 win over the Nationals. It was Colorado’s fourth win of the season.