Max Scherzer Addresses His 2008 Baseball America Scouting Report

Max Scherzer has had a Hall of Fame-quality career. Now with the Toronto Blue Jays, the 40-year-old right-hander has accumulated 73.0 WAR to go with 216 wins and a 133 ERA+ across his 18 big league seasons. Moreover, his 3,408 strikeouts rank 11th all time, and his résumé also includes three Cy Young Awards, eight All-Star selections, and a pair of World Series rings. Writing about his Cooperstown chances last summer, my esteemed colleague Jay Jaffe called Scherzer “a lock for election.”
Let’s turn the clock back to 2007, when Scherzer made his professional debut that summer a full year after he was drafted 11th overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks out of the University of Missouri. The following spring, Scherzer was ranked fourth in the D-backs system when Baseball America’s 2008 Prospect Handbook was published. Rankings and in-depth scouting reports weren’t yet a thing here at FanGraphs.
What did Scherzer’s 2008 Baseball America scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what BA’s Will Lingo wrote and asked Scherzer to respond to it.
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“The 11th overall pick in 2006, Scherzer pitched for the independent Fort Worth Cats and held out before he would have reentered the draft pool.”
“That’s right,” replied Scherzer. “Now that you think about it, the rules have changed since then, but when I got drafted by the Diamondbacks… actually, let’s go back to pre-draft. That season, my junior year, I slammed a door on my finger. I tried to pitch through it and developed biceps tendonitis. That scared off a lot of teams.
“I came back at the end of the year and pitched well, so I went into the draft saying that I was still looking for a top-college-pitcher contract. That was when you could still sign major league contracts out of the draft, and it’s what I told teams I was looking for. Arizona drafted me under those pretenses, but then tried to tell me I was hurt. I was like, ‘You guys literally just saw me at the Big 12 tournament. Everything is back. I’m good.’ I let them know that I wasn’t going to take 11th-pick slot; I was looking for a major league contract, which is what the top college pitchers in the past few years had gotten.
“They said no. I had the option go back to school, but when I talked it over with Scott [Boras], he said, ‘Let’s go the independent ball route.’ He’d that done with Luke Hochevar, who’d been the no. 1 pick the previous year, and it had worked out. Dallas was a great location for me, so I took that opportunity. I trained all offseason, simulated on my own, got built up, got there and pitched well as a Fort Worth Cat. Then I ended up signing. It was five minutes before the [May 30, 2007] deadline. Arizona gave me a major league contract.”
“Scherzer’s fastball can overmatch batters, arriving in the mid-90s with sinking action at its best.”
“Yes and no,” Scherzer said of that line’s accuracy. “It was right about the mid-90s, but I’ve never thrown a sinker. I’ve never thrown a two-seamer; I’ve always had a four. They used to say, ‘He has an invisible fastball.’ Now they would say, ‘He has a high-spin fastball.’
“The knock on me was that I had too much effort in my delivery, and that I had this head snap. I remember always saying, ‘No, I snap my head down to make the ball go up.’ Now we’ve kind of put it all together. Yeah, I would snap my head down, but it was getting me to put force down into the ball and create more spin, causing the ball to rise.”
“His slider can also be a plus pitch, though he’s working on its command and plane.”
“Yeah, that’s accurate,” Scherzer said. “I had a very inconsistent slider. Actually, my changeup was probably ahead of my slider when I got to the big leagues. I had more feel for it. There were times where I threw good sliders, but also times where I would get around it, or it was bigger… it was just a very inconsistent pitch. I didn’t solidify my slider until 2012. It was several years of working at that pitch.”
“Some scouts who saw Scherzer as a starter at mid-season wondered what the fuss was about. His fastball sat in the 89-93 range, and his overall stuff, command, feel, and delivery all drew questions.”
“Yep,” the righty replied. “When I got to Double-A with the Diamondbacks, they completely took my lifting away from what I did in college. They didn’t believe in lifting weights. That Double-A summer, instead of it being a mid-90s fastball it fell down to 89-93. I just wasn’t the same guy. So, that September I went back to lifting. I knew that I was going to the Fall League, so I worked hard all September to get ready for that. I pitched really well in the Fall League.”
“Then they saw him relieving in the Arizona Fall League and he was a different pitcher, touching 98 mph. Arizona’s official opinion is that Scherzer is a starter.”
“So, Arizona starts coming at me like, ‘No, you’re a reliever,’” Scherzer recalled. “And I was like, ‘No, I just need to lift.’ I could throw 98-99 on the 100th pitch. My hardest fastball could be at the 100th pitch. I remember having that heated debate with them, saying, ‘No. If you just let me lift, let me do my program, I’m a starter. I can pitch deep into a game. I can carry my velo deep into a game. I’m not a reliever. You don’t need to look at me like that.’”
“If he moves to the bullpen, he could provide immediate help in the big leagues, and has the pure stuff to eventually close games.”
“That’s always been kind of fascinating, envisioning me as a closer,” Scherzer said. “To some degree, that was true. The only reason I never fully entertained that was because I knew I could carry velocity deep into games. Again, I just needed my lifting program so that I was strong enough to do that. When I got traded to Detroit [in December 2009], they basically said, ‘Yeah, go do your program.’ From there, I was able to continue to develop. To this day, lifting is a part of my routine. I don’t want to be in a training room, I want to be in the weight room.”
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Previous “Old Scouting Reports Revisited” interviews can be found through these links: Cody Bellinger, Matthew Boyd, Dylan Cease, Matt Chapman, Erick Fedde, Randal Grichuk, Ian Happ, Jeff Hoffman, Matthew Liberatore.
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
This is awesome. Feel like Scherzer would happily go for 30 mins on this. Also interesting he had the same injury issue 2 decades ago that he has right now (pitching through an injured digit leading to something separate and larger)
I wish this story was longer!
“My place is a sty!”, said the pig at the complaint window
This is the best of these yet. It’s a nice antidote too to the occasional take you’ll hear that pitchers these days get too focused on the weight room (which, while idiotic, I recall hearing quite a bit back when Syndergaard put on a bunch of muscle one off season). Imagine being one of the guys telling Max Scherzer not to lift.
This is a great example of how seemingly minor changes can have a massive effect on a player’s career. If Scherzer hadn’t been allowed to resume weight training, things wouldn’t have played out as they did.
That revelation feeds into my obsession over “what ifs” for all those prospects who I liked but never quite made it.
As someone who couldn’t quit Nick Johnson and Greg Bird, I feel you.
Nick the Stick had a great career!
Truly. In the back of my mind I always wonder how many guys could have been perennial starters (or better!) in the majors but simply got drafted to the wrong org that minimized their talents and they flamed out in AA.
This series is the Aaron Judge of FanGraphs series. Another dinger.
bravo. very wonderful to hear an open and honest and detailed take from the future hall of famer. one of the true greats of my lifetime.
Want to second everybody above, both in loving the series and wishing we got 10x more out of Max.
I will never forget the day he signed with the Nats and my brother confidently said “9 figures to a pitcher never works out”
I love that Scherzer is still mad at the Diamondbacks and it leaks through. As others have pointed out, he was right. While I don’t think most were Scherzers, I wonder how many prospects have lost their careers by listening to their teams. Scherzer is unique but the Diamondbacks’ track record over the next ten years or so was not great. Things look up now in Arizona though!
They did the same thing with Bauer a few years later
What a difference the leadership makes.
In 2006 they also drafted Brett Anderson, who got flipped with a bunch of meh for Dan Haren, who proceeded to have the best 2 years of his career before being flipped to the Angels for Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, and Tyler Skaggs (who was later sent back to LAA and had his young promising career cut short). This series of moves worked out very well for the team and probably provided a lot of cover for their weaknesses that are so easy to see at the time. Corbin especially, he may ha e developed with the Angels or the teams development had improved greatly by 2010, but since they traded for Cahill who came to AZ to die in 2012, and Corbin never advanced past A ball with the Halos, I’d guess Corbin was an outlier.
And the year before they drafted Justin Upton who they amazingly managed to extract only 2 above average seasons from, so it may not be limited to pitchers. The year before was Micah Owings too, who I think the whole world wondered why they didn’t get in the lineup, and finished his career with just 2.1 WAR in his 68 games started and 70 games as a reliever, but 3.1 WAR in his 219 PA from his .283/.310/.502 line. And just visually, the dude could mash, quite a few of his HR were the no doubt variety. Owings will always be a major what-if, it was criminal not to get him more ABs.
In 2008 they took Wade Miley 47th overall and I guess he filled the back-end of their staff adequately.
In 2009 they basically drafted no pitchers, and it worked out great. AJ Pollock, Chris Owings, Matt Davidson, and Paul Goldschmidt all the way down with their 8th pick. So in 2010, they did the only logical thing and drafted pretty much nothing but pitchers. Barret Loux at 6 overall, JR Bradley, Robby Rowland, Kevin Munson, Cody Wheeler, Blake Perry, Jeff Shields, and Tyler Green made up their next 7 picks. Not a single one of these arms ever even made an MLB appearance. Perhaps not coincidentally, Josh Byrnes was fired as GM about a month after this draft. But then we had the Kevin Towers era followed by the weird and regrettable Dave Stewart era. Bauer was year 1 of Kevin Towers, who wasn’t good, but sure was missed once Stewart took over.
Mike Hazen took over as GM in 2017, and the powerhouse – and I mean that, AZ is great, just overshadowed in the NL west – that we have today should be credited to Hazen. The difference between him and his predecessors from the decade prior couldn’t be more stark, as every year he’s been able to draft people that actually aid the MLB roster, like Varsho, Pavin Smith, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pffadt, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Drey Jameson, Tim Tawa, signed Perdomo as an IFA, and ofc Corbin Carroll and Jordan Lawlar.
Baseball history is littered with talented players ruined by scouts evals and/or by coaching interference. The list is extremely long. Let the players play!
It’s really impressive to see Scherzer’s emotional maturity here to look back on past events, recognize his own gaps, highlight where he was wrong, and still convey his reactions to them without it taking away from his argument.
I would love to read more of these but I’m not sure how insightful all of them would be. That said… please keep them coming!
Hearing how dogmatic AZ was about their pitching plan makes 2008 feel like 100 years ago. Baseball is better for Max trusting himself.
A different tone on this one, and I love it. A couple of the other ones was just people agreeing, whereas Mad Max lives up to his nickname.
Obviously there aren’t many Max Scherzers. But at the same time it’s always makes you wonder how many guys would have been allstar caliber in other organizations etc
I always felt this was extremely true of the NFL. But MLB development occurs mostly in the minors. In NFL college does it.
A ton of what iffs
This is great insight.
As soon as I saw the headline I knew we’d finally found someone willing to disagree with his writeup! But it’s interesting to see that it’s really not the scouts he’s disagreeing with as much as the organization, and that he was willing to stick to his guns about his training and usage and role. Good stuff.
Great article. Always loved Max, one of the smartest guys in baseball, but, he always sounded like a guy that didn’t suffer fools. Loved how he bet on himself before free agency & got himself much more than Detroit’s offer.
Clearly, there were issues with him & AZ’s staff, but, even when he got to Detroit, he struggled some & got sent down to Toledo in 2010 due to it. When he came back from that, though, he was a new guy & became the dominant pitcher we all know. It was like a line of demarcation- ERA was over 7 through 7-8 starts..sent to Toledo for 2-3 starts..came back & by the end of the year it was 3.50. & he never looked back.
Would love to hear what caused light switch on for him.
The 2007-09 Diamondbacks also had a young Yusmeiro Petit and in echoes of what would happen to him over and over later in his career, refused to commit to him despite his success. Just as they gave up on Scherzer in 2008 after 3 starts. These decisions cost the Dbacks one last playoff run with Randy Johnson.
Great concept. Impressed with Max. How can you not allow a pro athlete benefit of doubt on what works best for him?
Well, it’s not just a pro athlete, it’s a very young pro athlete. I’m sure that plenty of young guys coming up have potentially damaging elements to their routines. Scherzer was probably more astute than most however. It seems like the kind of thing an org should handle on a case-by-case basis. If something seems to be working for a guy, you probably want to wait and see.
Echoing the comments….this series is awesome, but this is the best one to date. Nice work! And thanks!