Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/8/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: I didn’t watch much baseball over the weekend because I was at a family wedding, but I spent yesterday force-feeding myself everything I could, so hopefully I’m back to full speed takes

Davy Andrews: Hi Ben!

Ben Clemens: Hey Davy, or Davy imposter

Chip: Was looking at Jacob Wilson’s Savant page, and he looks like fool’s gold. 1% bat speed, 0 BBs in 41 PAs. Moving on, then.

Ben Clemens: This is the Jacob Wilson experience, though

Ben Clemens: His minor league Statcast stuff is basically the same. He doesn’t strike out and doesn’t hit the ball hard, so he gets all his power in doubles. I don’t believe the projection systems here – but they have access to minor league batted ball data, the kind of batted ball data that a 30 game power grade implies, and they still think he’s a good hitter

Ben Clemens: This profile is one that analytical models might slightly overrate in the aggregate — but hitters like this work out in the majors all the time. Not to the tune of a 167 wRC+ but like, we knew that

Chip: Should we be concerned that Willson Contreras is striking out 41% of the time, up from 27% last year?

Ben Clemens: Basically no

Ben Clemens: He had two period of strikeout rate this high in 2024 and two in 2023

Ben Clemens: If there’s something to be worried about, it’s his chase rate, but the truth is, he has a ton of swing and miss in his game. He has a career 14.2% swinging strike rate, higher than that on the Cardinals. He’s only plyaed 44 games this year. If he keeps chasing 40% of pitches outside the strike zone, it’ll be hard for him to produce. So…. don’t swing so much, Willson?

Ben Clemens: But that’s a noisy statistic, and one that he can control more easily than anything atomic about him, like his exit velocity or contact rate, and I expect it to come down

War2d2: After Vlad got $500m (still not certain if that’s USD or CAD), do you think Tucker gets something like 12/$430m? Basically Vlad’s deal with a couple years chopped off to make up for the age difference

Ben Clemens: Vlad’s is in USD, I’m sure. Blue Jays deals get reported in USD

Ben Clemens: And yeah, I think there’s a ton of range in outcomes for Tucker because he hasn’t played this season yet, and last season was a promising level but a worrying injury

Ben Clemens: But median expectations for me are something like that. A deal that keeps him around for a decade or more, and with an AAV in the upper 30’s

seth: would you try to do extensions for any of the young redlegs to form a core next to H Greene? Elly is the obvious one (though he seems unlikely to engage as a Boras client), McLain, CES, Steer, Ty Steve, Friedl, Lodolo, Lowder all have varying yellow/orange/red flags…

Ben Clemens: I mean, yes

Ben Clemens: As a GM, I’d be offering extensions to a ton of players

Ben Clemens: But that’s true for essentially any team I get to GM

Ben Clemens: owners, call me! I’m free

Redbull 44: Will Marcus Semien turn it around? Or is it a situation of  a declining player hitting rock bottom and more to come? Thanks

Ben Clemens: Yeah, it’s April 8, I’m gonna give myself some more time before I get worried. He’s had some uncharacteristic swing and miss in his game and that seems like an unlikely place for a decline. If we’re still looking at this more than 11 games into the season, I’ll keep re-evaluating, but I look at his statistics and don’t see a ton to worry about aside from saying that he’s probably not a 130 wrC+ player anymore. Our projections had him down for around 110 before the season and that feels about right to me

Some kinda Mook: I have ceased worrying too much about Devers. Fair?

Ben Clemens: Haha, yes

Ben Clemens: I heard someone use him as an example of a player who simply could not hit if they didn’t play the field

Ben Clemens: and since his miserable five-game start, he’s hitting .455/.536/.727 with twice as many walks as strikeouts

Ben Clemens: is that good?

Mike Lommler: What’s for lunch, and if you have to make a player comp to your lunch who would it be?

Ben Clemens: Leftovers from last night, we ordered Chinese b/c no groceries after being gone for the wedding

Ben Clemens: I think my comp would be Mookie Betts. Is the Chinese food full strength? Nope. It’s been in the fridge overnight, which is kind of like playing below full weight

Ben Clemens: but is it still effective? Absolutely

SPArn: Any ~real~ takeaways from Crews and Woods small samples to start the year? Personally encouraged they’re both smoking the ball and Crews defense, worried about the ground ball rates, overly selective natures, and wood continuing to look like a baby deer in left more than any counting stats

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m with you pretty much across the board

Ben Clemens: the main thing that I’m worried about with Crews is that he just doesn’t swing enough

Ben Clemens: use those tools!

Ben Clemens: and yeah, I’m expecting Wood to take a long time to figure it out on defense but he’s really testing my patience at the moment

Redbull 44: It appears Povich will keep his job in the Oriole rotation with a few key injuries. Do you see anything that suggests an improvement is coming, or is this who he is? Thanks

Ben Clemens: I watched one of his starts in full, the other only in part. I don’t buy the strikeout rate even a little. Just got lucky to get Devers when he was a pumpkin for a few days at random, his swinging strike rate is meaningfully down and he’s not getting extra first strikes or anything

Ben Clemens: He’s gonna need plus command to make this work, and I just don’t have enough data on that front

DBC: Thoughts on the Giants hot start? Are they really contenders or too early to tell?

Ben Clemens: I think it kinda depends on what ‘contenders’ means. Are they playoff hopefuls? 100%

Ben Clemens: Are they looking at a 100-win season? I don’t think so

Ben Clemens: Jung Hoo Lee looks like he’s healthy, which is a big deal, and hey would you look at that, Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in baseball, just like he is every year

Ben Clemens: But the offense is just not there for a 100-win team, imo

Ben Clemens: or even a true-talent 95 win team

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Poppy: You guys are messing with my circadian rhythm here.  Justin on Monday, Jay on Tuesday….what’s next?  Dan eating skyline chili?

Ben Clemens: Don’t go making crazy statements like that

Mr. Fister: What is the long-term outlook for Ben Rice?  Stanton under contract for another year.  Wells at catcher.  Does Rice have enough juice to be the full-time 1B after Goldy leaves?

Ben Clemens: I think so. I have been a believer for a while, and I didn’t downgrade my expectations too much after last year’s rough call-up

Ben Clemens: It’s not like he’s guaranteed to hit, but how would you not bet on someone with his minor league stats?

Ben Clemens: It’d be one thing if your alternative were Vlad, and maybe it was for the Yankees before he signed his extension. But I’ll take Rice over the ‘veteran looking for a ring’ class of free agents, and I don’t see an obvious alternative on the NY roster

Mr. Fister: In dynasty, would you trade one of Roupp/Birdsong for Ben Rice?  All salaries are $1.  All are depth.  So really just who would you prefer going forward?

Ben Clemens: I think it’d depend on my roster construction, but certainly in the realm of possibility

BC26: Where do you expect Sandy to be playing this August? Dodgers make most sense to me right now

Ben Clemens: I’d be surprised if he goes to the Dodgers. I think he doesn’t fit the way they like to use their pitching staff all that well

Ben Clemens: That’s not to say they wouldn’t take him, but they’ve expended a lot of resources to make the pitching staff deep rather than have a few innings eating aces

Ben Clemens: it’d be weird to pivot against that and limit starts to, say, May and Ohtani to do so

Ben Clemens: with everyone healthy, they seem like a six-man rotation of Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Sasaki, Ohtani, and May. Using Alcantara in a six-man rotation seems silly. So does axing two of those guys’ starts to trade for him

Ben Clemens: How about San Diego? They trade Cease and then do the classic Padres thing of reloading

Bruce: Know of any comparable for Junior Caminero’s combination of Bat Speed vs Whiff Rate?  Also can you explain to me as if I were a 5 year old why this package isn’t working?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking?vizX=avg_sweet…

Ben Clemens: I’ll start with the second

Ben Clemens: To hit home runs, you have to hit the ball in the air. That’s because there are fences that are too tall for a ground ball to bounce over. Also, ground balls don’t go as far because they hit the ground a bunch.

Ben Clemens: It’s hard to be a great hitter in baseball if you don’t hit home runs. That’s because the other team is full of very good players trying to get you out, and the easiest way to stop them from doing that is by hitting it to a place where they aren’t allowed to go get it

Ben Clemens: as to whether this can continue; I mean, probably not. I do think that getting the ball in the air is going to be a long-term struggle for Caminero, and that pitchers are going to attack him low in the zone until he adapts. But his ability to hit for meaningful power even with a bunch of grounders in the minors speaks to that bat speed, and the Rays have generally done a good job with players like that

Mom: What do you think about the Nats this year?

Ben Clemens: I think that the biggest question for them is how Dylan Crews and James Wood fare. Realistically, most of the starters on offense aren’t going to be starters on the next Nats playoff team; how the ones who we expect to stick around do is way more important than whether Paul DeJong has a throwback season

Ben Clemens: I’m also holding out hope that Mitchell Parker is real-ish

Ben Clemens: but basically, if the young players are good this year, it’s been a successful year. And if they win 70+ games with the young players playing well, you have to start thinking about them as a playoff hopeful for ’26. That’s certainly possible

RH: Do you have any new season resolutions? Mine is to not look at the MLB standings until the College World Series is over. It’s not going to help me to think about it before then so I am trying it out.

Ben Clemens: This time I’m not going to overreact to single games

Ben Clemens: ha!

Ben Clemens: I’ve already failed that one, of course

Ben Clemens: But I like reading Dan’s chats early in the season to remind myself not to overreact

Oaktown Blues: It really feels like Soderstrom heard Kurtz’s footsteps and decided “I better break out now”

Ben Clemens: right?

Ben Clemens: I was pretty high on Soderstrom coming into the year

Ben Clemens: I hope that came through in my first base writeup of the A’s

Ben Clemens: but like…. not this high?

Ben Clemens: He has plus plus power and looked good in 2024. Sure, not a great spring training, but also, spring training

Ben Clemens: He’s probably not gonna keep absolutely nuking the ball like he is right now but aside from the fact that he’s turning half his fly balls into homers and that won’t continue, the Statcast numbers look impressive and also similar to last year, when he was a good hitter who maybe got a little unlucky

Calvin: Re: Kurtz/Soderstrom….por que no los dos?

Ben Clemens: I thikn that they have a high bar to do that because they want Rooker to play DH as much as possible

Ben Clemens: If Kurtz forces their hand, I think they’ll use all three, but at this point, he’s played 13 games above A ball in his career

Ben Clemens: so I doubt there’s a rush to force him to the majors nowrightnow. But yeah, Miguel Andujar is a much easier person to bench than Tyler Soderstrom. That’s Kurtz’s new competition for big league playing time

Calvin: Also, most of Soderstrom’s homers have been wallscrapers in a minor league ballpark.

Ben Clemens: Well sure, but not a stadium with minor league dimensions

Ben Clemens: And also, not a stadium that I expect to play small until it gets hot

Ben Clemens: the high in Sacramento over the last few weeks is 75

Ben Clemens: In July, the average high is in the mid 90s. There’s probably going to be some Wrigley to the park

Larry: With Vladdy getting the bag, how much do you think this improves Pete Alonso’s next contract if he does decide to opt out?

Ben Clemens: Not a ton, really

Ben Clemens: That’s about what I had Vlad down for

Kyle: Do we see Roman Anthony in Boston anytime soon?

Ben Clemens: To answer this question, ask yourself where the playing time would come from

Ben Clemens: Rafaela? Seems at least believable. He’s hitting quite poorly and Duran can play center

Ben Clemens: But that’s basically it, so if the Sox like Rafaela’s defense too much to bench him, Anthony is down until there’s an injury-related opening

Ben Clemens: I really don’t want to see him get called up and then not play

Nate: Maikel Garcia breaking out?

Ben Clemens: Ah, an annual rite of spring

Ben Clemens: by which I mean, prove it Maikel

Ben Clemens: I don’t buy it

Pitch Please: Are we looking at breakouts for Tylor Megill and Kris Bubic or is it just a case of a good two-start sample size?

Ben Clemens: I’m more constructive on Bubic after he looked excellent last year

Ben Clemens: With Megill, we’ve seen this basic act before

Ben Clemens: I think he’s a nice swingman but probably not much more

Bullock: Glad to see Toronto pay up to keep their young star, I always like that.  But how are the Jays going to win with him?  They’re old, very expensive, not good enough right now, without obvious impact talent ready on the farm, and in a division full of ascendant teams.  If not for Vlad Jr, this would be an obvious time for a rebuild cycle.

Ben Clemens: I think you might have said that about the Royals, the Tigers, the Guardians with Ramirez, a few other teams. The idea is that it’s hard to find great players, but teams develop impact talent all the time. Maybe Alek Manoah comes back and looks good. Maybe Alejandro Kirk is good on defense and offense at the same time. Are we so sure Will Wagner isn’t the next Brandon Lowe? superstars are the hardest thing in baseball to acquire. Teams wiht money and time can get most of the other things

ButHe’s23: Tovar is just going to hit .270 w/.295 obp and some accumulating stats his whole career… isn’t he?

Ben Clemens: oh yeah

Ben Clemens: and as long as he plays a gold glove shortstop, it’s gonna be perfectly fine

Ben Clemens: people want Omar Vizquel and his career 83 wRC+ in the hall of fame

Ben Clemens: the swing at everything no power approach limits Tovar’s upside but I think it also kind of gives him a floor, which is okay as long as the majority of his contributions come with a glove on

Edf that: Bombs baby!  Put Rooker in CF for all I care.

Ben Clemens: To come back to an earlier topic…. lol

Mr. Fister: Why do the Rockies?

Ben Clemens: Sorry, I don’t have the time to answer this one

Bullock: Colt Keith has dropped his swing% by 16 points and is running a BB% of 30%.  How much can he keep that up?  Could lots of players just decide to stop swinging and run a .400 OBP for a couple weeks?

Ben Clemens: not even the funniest version of this — that’d be marcell ozuna

Ben Clemens: he’s swinging at pitches IN THE ZONE less frequently than his swing rate on all pitches in any previous season

Ben Clemens: but basically, yes. I think that a lot of powerful and swing-happy hitters could run a huge OBP for a few weeks just by not swinging

Ben Clemens: but it wouldn’t be sustainable. Pitchers don’t exist in a vacuum

Ben Clemens: How could they breathe?!?

millville meltdown: how noodly does a bat need to be to take a gold glove out of the lineup

millville meltdown: (lookin at you, hedges, and bo naylor, soon to be hedges 2.0

Ben Clemens: Bo Naylor should be miffed by that comment, haha

Ben Clemens: although to be fair, Hedges did pinch hit for him in last year’s playoffs

Ben Clemens: as for the asnwer to this question, I think it’s clear. When Hedges was hitting for around a 70 wRC+ with elite defense, he was a full-time rotational catcher and a valuable, tradeable guy

Ben Clemens: then he started hitting for a 40 wRC+ and became a backup

Ben Clemens: then he started hitting for a 20 wRC+ and his playing time went down even more

Eff that: A pitcher could survive in a vacuum if they wore a pressurized suit.  The more you know

Ben Clemens: that’s true, but also if the pitcher were in a vacuum, their pitches would all fly straight because there’d be no air resistance

Ben Clemens: it would be a weird experiment. And I mean, if some team wants to try, I’m all ears, but I’m guessing their R&D priorities run in other directions

War2d2: I punted on 2b in my draft and wound up panic-drafting Luis Garcia jr. He’s rewarded me by hitting .206 and being benched against every lefty. Any suggestions for possible waiver guys or call-up candidates? Cronenworth, IKF, and Kyren Paris are all available and hitting more than Garcia (for now), but track-record-wise I’d expect a lot of regression.

Ben Clemens: I’m most into Paris out of that group. Not because he’s the best projection (Croney), but b/c he’s 23 and on an awful team, so if he hits, he’ll play

Stephen: Given it’s extremely early and team records don’t mean much and lots of stats are too small sample to take away much, but are there any teams that are beating your expectations (positive or negative) that you think will keep it up based

Ben Clemens: hmmmmm

Ben Clemens: the Red Sox look good to me. i’m not sure I’d say beating expectations but I think they’re WS contenders for sure and seeing htem early in the season has cemented my view. Also I think the Dodgers might be good

Guest: There’s no real reason to feel sorry for ATL or their fans if the season continues to go badly, right? For one, they’ve had plenty of success. And, B, they totally cheaped out during the offseason. Plus, the Chop.

Ben Clemens: Speaking of! I’m a tiny bit worried about MHII, that chase rate, yikes. He looks completely lost

Ben Clemens: Yeah, no one feels sorry for Braves fans, it’s been a very good century

Matt: Jays starting staff is comprised of veteran pitchers who aren’t missing many bats, how much longer can they survive with this profile? Hoffman looks great in the pen, but any chance they try using him as a starter? I was a little surprised that wasn’t their plan when signing him.

Ben Clemens: I think that Hoffman probably didn’t want to start

Ben Clemens: if he did, he would have found a way to, given how hot relief conversions are right now

Ben Clemens: I think if he wants to, they should try it

Barves: Honestly, are the Braves really that good? I feel like a lot of people are going, “Well, it’s the Braves” and ignoring all their flaws. Like they’re batting Bryan De La Cruz 6th. That’s literally a Pirates move. I know they have a couple of key pieces coming back from injuries but I’m really not sure about this one

Ben Clemens: Well, I’m actually writing up the depth chart method we use to approximate team strength after injuries, should go up tomorrow

Ben Clemens: and, yeah, the Braves are good. They’re batting Bryan De La Cruz 6th. The best offense in baseball last year played Kevin Newman at first base for a significant portion of the year and gave Geraldo Perdomo about 100 PA in the first or second spot in the lineup

Ben Clemens: Part of the reason the Braves are good is because they have a bunch of good hitters. But another reason is that they have a bunch of good pitchers, and a good defense

Bob: Brett Baty seems like a AAAA player. How many more ABs does he get with the Mets and is he a guy who needs a change of scenery?

Ben Clemens: Yeah that’s my read at this point too

Ben Clemens: I think they should give him a change of scenery trade, honestly. He does not have a spot on the team with Alonso back and Vientos capable of handling third

George: Am I wrong to be worried about Crews? He hasn’t been as electric, even in the minors, as he was at LSU.

Ben Clemens: I’m not worried about the tools yet but like I said, I want him to change the approach

Ben Clemens: I don’t care that he’s striking out a lot, he was in college not long ago

Ben Clemens: but I do care that he’s not trying to maximize his tools by swinging at strikes

dads: Seems like Canha with his strong performance is fighting his way into regular at-bats at the expense of Melendez & Renfroe, ya?

Ben Clemens: yes, and good riddance

Ben Clemens: we went through the Royals 2024 lineups last week in the chat and it was GRIM

Ben Clemens: Melendez batted 4th or 5th for 54 games!

Oaktown Blues: I will always root for Mark Canha. Standup guy

Ben Clemens: Oh man, couldn’t agree more

Ben Clemens: one of the true good guys in baseball, I’ve never heard anything but great things about him and he does an amazing job of fitting in with the community everywhere he plays

Dan’l: How much regret (1-10) will the Cards have for not selling every veteran or short-contract player w/o trade clauses?

Ben Clemens: Like 4? For the most part, they weren’t going to get a ton back for them anyway

Ben Clemens: and it seems pretty clear to me that being at least acceptable matters in St. Louis

Ben Clemens: you can’t just blow it all up for funsies with no consequences in a market htat is so used to winning

Kyle: Are we worried about Clase?

Ben Clemens: wait are we supposed to be?

Ben Clemens: I must have missed this story

Ben Clemens: Yeah, no. He’s thrown 4 innings. He’s missing more bats, hasn’t issued a walk, barely allowing any hard-hit balls just like normal

Ben Clemens: just getting victimized by a 20% HR/FB and a wild 25% infield hit rate

Paulie_Eff: Head-to-head league, daily lineups, 7 Off cats, AVG/HR/R/RBI/SB/OPS + Batter K’s (neg catagory)  Need to drop either Stott or Tovar, as J Jung is off the IL.  Having a hard time deciding who to drop…

Ben Clemens: ooh, this is a tough one because I like both of these guys more in daily formats

Ben Clemens: for the Coors platoon (home/away) and the handedness platoon factors

Ben Clemens: I think I’d keep Stott if you’re treating this spot as more than a platoon, b/c Tovar on the road is not really fun

Ben Clemens: and if it’s more of a pure platoon type spot, or where you don’t need a full complement, I’d take Tovar and the park

Larry: What are your thoughts on Roki Sasaki after seeing him for a couple of starts? I read a scouting report saying that he was considered a better prospect than Paul Skenes but so far he hasn’t even come close to that.

Ben Clemens: Well I think that Skenes has hit the 99th percentile or so for outcomes of a pitching prospect

Ben Clemens: so comparing him to Skenes in the majors, sure, not matching up

Ben Clemens: I think that it’s clear he has the stuff to succeed, but his command with the MLB ball has been atrocious

Ben Clemens: not everyone adjusts to the majors as seamlessly as perhaps one of the top draft picks of the century

Lord Thunder: Who ends up with the most career WAR, Ezekiel Tovar or Masyn Winn?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, good one. But I have Winn in this one by a bit

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s as good as Tovar defensively, and I think the odds are against him ever getting that good. But I like his offensive potential much more

Ben Clemens: and also, that feels safer to me. Tovar but a little worse on defense might just notn work

Kyle: Outlook for the Orioles?

Ben Clemens: Good! Love to see Westburg picking up where he left off, and Adley looking like he has recovered from an injury that he claims never impacted him

Ben Clemens: the pitching is not great, but we knew that was going to be the case

Ben Clemens: I’m not worried that Morton is cooked, though I think he’s more okay than plus at this point in his career. Sugano’s lack of bat missing stuff is worrisome but also like…. I expected it to be worrisome

Ben Clemens: I think that they’re going to need to win slugfests all year and hope that Grayson Rodriguez turns into an ace

Ben Clemens: but well… I thought that before the season and also worried about Adley and Westburg, so we’re moving in the right direction

Mr. Redlegs: How many Reds hitters play for a legitimately good team? Elly, Mclain and maybe Stephenson? Just a disappointingly put together line up to pair with such great pitching.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, De La Cruz and McLain are both amazing, of course

Ben Clemens: they’d play for absolutely everybody

Ben Clemens: I think Spencer Steer would easily have an everyday role even on good teams. He’s defensively versatile and the Dodgers have Andy Pages in their lineup every day and hvae already given Enrique Hernandez and Miguel Rojas about 60 PA

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he’s a star, but guys like that who can almost certainly hit and who can stand many places always find a way to fit in

Ben Clemens: but yes, it’s very shallow

Ben Clemens: Friedl depends on his defense, I think, but you could make an argument for him too maybe

Davy Andrews: (It’s the real Davy. Just being friendly.)

Ben Clemens: hello!

Matt: Can Alek Thomas please just play everyday in CF? I get he swings and bad pitches and pulls at a high rate but is McCarthy’s profile really that much better? (obviously he won’t go hitless forever but the pop doesn’t seem to be there)

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m with you

Ben Clemens: I like Thomas’s defense a ton, enough to play him even if he can’t hit much. This team isn’t exactly short on offense, and having a defender like that really matters

Ohtani: Is my deal looking better with every $500 million+ LF/DH/1B signing?

Ben Clemens: Yeah

Ben Clemens: It felt like an underpay even at the time

Ben Clemens: but now it feels even more s

Ben Clemens: so*

Kyle: Logan Gilbert CY Young?

Ben Clemens: It woudl be very funny if after years of Kirby as the hipster candidate, Gilbert won instead

Mike Lommler: Can you think of a baseball comp to the Denver Nuggets firing their coach and GM this close to the playoffs?

Ben Clemens: Not really

Ben Clemens: That was shocking

millville meltdown: who’s going to rack up the most negative war this year

Ben Clemens: this is actually kinda fun

Ben Clemens: last year’s winners were Brandon Drury and Eddie Rosario, which should give you an idea of the kind of player who can do this

Ben Clemens: proven veterans who are now bad but who play on teams that are thin at their position

Ben Clemens: Okya, Hunter Renfroe is a name that kind of fits that vibe this year

Ben Clemens: Jake Fraley? Like we mentioned, the Reds seem to be in some trouble when it comes to finding enough hitters

Ben Clemens: how about Gio Urshela

Mr. Fister: I was about to say …negative war leader has to be on a team that won’t sit/send down said player.  It’s got to be a Royal or a Rockie

Ben Clemens: It could be a Brave though

Ben Clemens: Bryan De La Cruz was third-worst last year, so I think that actually makes it less likely that he does it b/c if he’s awful again he will just vanish

Ben Clemens: but the Braves don’t mind running out an awful option for a long time if the rest of the team plays well

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON

Rob S: Logan didn’t even get a QS last night

Ben Clemens: True! Irrelevant!

J: What in the world is going on with William Contreras?

Ben Clemens: a worm offended him deeply, and he’s declared war on all worms as a result

Ben Clemens: his timing just looks awful, tbh

Ben Clemens: seems like a thing you just have to work through

Ben Clemens: but a 73% groundball rate and 9% line drive rate is just not going to get it done

Dave: Most consequential injury since the season started?

Ben Clemens: Probably Reynaldo Lopez, but I’m looking through everything to make sure I didn’t forget someone

Mr. Fister: Ketel….re: injury

Ben Clemens: I’ll update if he’s hurt worse than expecdted

Ben Clemens: but I’m expecting a minimum stay for him

Mr. Fister: Snell

Ben Clemens: yeah same deal

Ben Clemens: or well… it’s a bit different in that for Snell, the reason it’s less impactful is b/c he’s on the Dodgers

Ben: Brewers fired Ned Yost at the end of the season they made the playoffs.

Ben: I think there was 10 games left

Ben Clemens: ah, the Ben Cinematic Universe delivers again

Tyle Kucker: Do you think superstar players should sign extensions this year, with the economy looking really bad? Like Mookie during Covid

Ben Clemens: eh, I think it’s probably not meaningful unless we actually have a bib recession

Ben Clemens: big*

Ben Clemens: a bib recession would be rough for baby clothing manufacturers but I think MLB would survive

Ben Clemens: Like, the stock market is down 4% from last year’s levels

Ben Clemens: GDP is gross this year so far, but eh, ask me again in six months

Ben Clemens: I don’t see this affecting baseball contracts unless things go really sideways

Dave: Higher inflation and interest rates certainly make the longer term deals more attractive to ownership

Ben Clemens: what higher interest rates, though? 10y yield is around 4, around 4.25 lats year

Ben Clemens: again, like, things could change meaningfully from here

Ben Clemens: but the real economic impacts so far would not merit ‘no one can sign a long-term deal in baseball’

Ben Clemens: you can be upset about what’s going on in the economy without thinking that everything has already crashed beyond fixing, you know?

J: What are the Rangers doing trotting out Patrick Corbin tonight? (And similarly, why is Carlos Carrasco making regular starts for the Yankees?) I know good pitching is hard to come by, but are these really reasonable options for a contender?

Ben Clemens: well….. if they pitch, say, 100 innings

Ben Clemens: then no

Ben Clemens: but if it’s putting in these guys for spot starts, and hoping it’s at least acceptable? I think it’s fine

Ben Clemens: if Corbin is cooked, he won’t last long

Dwight Howard’s Boyfriend: Will Trout still make the HOF?  Please say he will

Ben Clemens: oh yeah, I don’t even think it’s close

Ben Clemens: he’s been worth 86 WAR!

Ben Clemens: his career batting line is .298/.410/.580 and he’s played plus centerfield for most of that time

Kyle: Worried about Corbin Burnes?

Ben Clemens: as much as I was before the season, basically

Ben Clemens: he was one of my ‘big questions for the year’

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-big-questions-about-the-2025-season/

Ben Clemens: not taking much out of his first two starts, though

Nats fan: Dejong looked like a real good Ss yesterday.  Will CJ be moved to 3rd in the near future?

Ben Clemens: Oh, I forgot to answer an Abrams question earlier about whether he could be part of hte next core. I’d love to see this change, or to try him in center, or SOMETHING

Ben Clemens: like, this man cannot play shortstop. That’s okay. There are plenty of good major league players who do not play shortstop

Ben Clemens: what you really want him for is the bat, anyway. Try him out somewhere else

Jesse: Is Walker Buehler cooked?

Ben Clemens: magic 8 ball says ask again when he’s not giving up homers on 30% of his fly balls

Bencle Mens: With the caveat that I have not look into this at all, but reading that Clase has a high infield hit rate, would pitchers of his ilk be more susceptible than others? Defense reads a big swing but it generates softer contact than expected so they aren’t prepared to charge, etc

Ben Clemens: I mean, that sounds believable? But over his career he has a 7.8% infield hit rate

Ben Clemens: which is unremarkable

Prong: Speaking of people who can’t play defense, I predict that this is finally the year that people realize Luis Arraez is nothing but an empty batting average.  He’s toast

Ben Clemens: maybe this’ll be the year where he swings around from overrated to undrrated

Ben Clemens: he’s not a bad player. He just happens to be a solid player in a way that makes people think he’s a great player

Ben Clemens: if people switch around to thinking he’s toast, that would be a funny reversal to me

Dave: Will the Marlins be willing to trade Sandy to the Mets?

Ben Clemens: I think so

Ben Clemens: Alright, two minute lightning round and then it’s lunchtime

Dickneck: What’s was for lunch?

Ben Clemens: Chinese leftovers

dads: Mlodzinki, Harrington, Dobbins ROS?

Ben Clemens: Carmen

Mr. Fister: Is one White Sox player called a White Sox or a White Sock

Ben Clemens: I try to avoid using it just to be safe

Profargate: After Profar, do you think mediocre players that randomly break out when they’re old will find an even harder time getting big contracts?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Brendan Donovan: How much of a trade haul will I bring back at the deadline?

Ben Clemens: I think you’re unlikely to be dealt b/c your presence makes team-building much easier in the future

Ben Clemens: but if dealt, plenty!

Ben Clemens: I think Fedde and Gray are far more likely trade candidates

Bubbles: Thoughts on Liberatore? Results aren’t good ER wise, but approach looks much better and command seems improved.

Ben Clemens: Too soon to say

Kasbo: Who do like best from an upside standpoint ….Bido, Roupp, Birdsong, or D. Festa?

Ben Clemens: Birdsong for me. I’m not sure whether this is logical or whether i give him a slight edge b/c of the name but… here we are

Creepy Kid: I like turtles!

Ben Clemens: I would absolutely love to know what this was in reference to

Nate: Is Hunter Goodman…good? Or think he’ll just be a flash in the pan that can’t hit his weight?

Ben Clemens: Leaning the second but without a ton of confidence

Dave: Mets game time was moved up due to the cold.  That’s a first for me

Ben Clemens: snow baseball in DET, what a time to be alive

Kyle: Do you see the Orioles bringing in any notables at pitching at the deadline

Ben Clemens: yes, too soon to guess who though

Ben Clemens: Alright, t hanks again for chatting with me today, everyone

Ben Clemens: May your enemies negotiate favorable trade deals with you and your injuries be minor and nagging rather than catastrophic, until next Monday at least