Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 5/5/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I’m fresh off a trip to Milwaukee where I caught a Brewers/Cubs game (sadly it was very normal, not a single Five Things I could find)

Slumps: How much does the decision to let guys play through slumps or sit (or get sent down in the case of Jake Burger) depend on data vs. feel? Is that the type of decision left to managers or does the FO usually make it now?

Ben Clemens: I think it depends on what you mean by ‘data’

Ben Clemens: But it’s definitely a combination of the two

Ben Clemens: data isn’t going to pick up on whether the guy is getting discouraged and needs to clear his mind

Ben Clemens: though it might see some signs that suggest he’s performing worse than he’s capable of

Ben Clemens: I think that FO and managers communicate on this one and that’s smart

Some kinda Mook: If the Sox are dead-set against Devers playing 1B, what’s your preferred alternative? Stick a 1B glove on Anthony and call him up? Shift Campbell to 1B for now and call up Mayer to play 2B? The solution can’t possibly be to just play Romy.

Ben Clemens: I guess I’d just call up Anthony?

Ben Clemens: I don’t quite get the reluctance to put Devers there but hey, I’m not in the know, there might be a reason

Nate: A few weeks ago I asked you if you thought Maikel Garcia had figured something out, and your response was effectively “prove it, Maikel”. Has he?

Ben Clemens: not to my satisfaction

David Stearns: SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Baty is being called up to replace an injured Winker. Is there any reason to think Baty will do better in his 70th chance?

Ben Clemens: I mean, no right?

Oaktown Blues: Fun little streak to follow: Justin Sterner didn’t allow a run during Spring training, and hasn’t allowed a run so far in the regular season. 28.2 scoreless IP (12 spring, 16.2 regular season). Quality waiver wire pickup

Ben Clemens: I love scoreless streaks

Ben Clemens: definitely keeping an eye on every pitcher on a notable one

Ben Clemens: I interviewed alltime scoreless IP record holder JP Feyereisen once, even!

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/j-p-feyereisen-record-setter/

Pythagoras of Cascadia: In re Tatis Jr. stealing home this week: if there are two outs and there’s a single runner on third, shouldn’t the runner attempt to steal home if he believes that he’s got a higher chance of success than the current batter’s xBA?

Like, if you think you could make it home 30% of the time, should you not go for it?

Ben Clemens: not quite right b/c the batter can hit a home run

Ben Clemens: and it’s game situation dependent

Ben Clemens: like…. down 2 in the 8th, you shouldn’t do that

Ben Clemens: but like, in the first inning, if you’re 50% likely, yeah

Greg: There’s been some scuttlebutt on the strike zone having shrunk this year – or at least the shadow zone. Does this appear to be the case or just something to talk about in April/May?

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/strike-zone-update-part-1-has-umpiring-pla…

Ben Clemens: there’s gonna be a part 2, as well

McGreevy: When will Stl actually commit to the rebuild and give me a rotation spot?

Ben Clemens: after yesterday, maybe just now?

ronaldo monday: Devers to 1B right away is the only real option, right?

Ben Clemens: it’s the only one that makes any sense to me

Oddball Herrera: Seems like at the very least Bos should be acting like they are prepping Devers for 1B, just so they don’t seem desperate if they’re pursuing a trade

tree: lets say u tell a pitcher just throw a strike pretend no batter is there and getting the ball in the zone is the only goal , what percentage of the time do they suceed?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t looked at this for a while, but my old proxy was 3-0 counts to pitchers batting

Ben Clemens: and it was like…. 70%

Ben Clemens: it’s probably a bit higher than that, b/c the kinds of pitchers who get behind 3-0 to an opposing pitcher are wild

Mr 41: Broadcasters think almost all CF are above average defensively. Which team’s fans would be surprised to hear that their team does not have a top-15 defensive CF?

Ben Clemens: great question

Ben Clemens: I looked at the last three years of data to get a braoder picture than just what’s going on this year

Ben Clemens: and with that in mind, I think I’ll say: the White Sox

Ben Clemens: Robert hasn’t been that good on defense in a while

Ben Clemens: but I think he’s still considered elite there

Bosoxforlife: Is Casas’s injury, and nobody wants to see a player injured, actually going to help the Red Sox going forward – and how are they going to keep Anthony an, or, Mayer or both down after this happened?

Ben Clemens: Dan’s writing about this

Ben Clemens: at the very least, the Red Sox were well-equipped to handle an unfortunate injury, they hvae more players they want to give PT than spots

Justin: Lets say we give Ben Clemens the Pirates GM job after firing Ben Cherington in a week.  What are some of the first things that Ben Clemens does?  Do we see you try to build for 2028 or do we see you try to eek together something for 2026? Something else?

Ben Clemens: I’m trying to aim for 2026

Ben Clemens: I mean, I’d be trying to aim for 2025 except it’s too late

Ben Clemens: if you have Paul Skenes, what are you doing

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying I’d succeed at it

Ben Clemens: but that would be my goal

RAGBRAI: If we can reopen Alcatraz can we reopen the Polo Grounds too?

Ben Clemens: now that’s a political platform I could get behind

Gronch: Not really a gambling question (ick) but I saw some odds that had Logan Webb as the 5th best odds at NL CY. That seems light given his track record and start to the season–who other than Yamamoto and Skenes are you more confident in than Webb?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I’m with you. I think he would have been in my top 5 before the year, and now we’ve learned that he has strikeout stuff against lefties

Ben Clemens: combine that with Wheeler being off to a slow start and no one really exploding to the forefront, and this seems like a weird line to me

tree: is there any reason why u cant have relievers pitch a few innings and then have a starter take over and pitch 5 or 6 innings

Ben Clemens: you’ve just invented the opener!

Ben Clemens: but yeah, it works

Greg: My Question is – if you’re the next GM what do you do with this team? Half your budget is in mediocre extensions of Hayes/Reynolds/Keller, you have possibly the best young starting pitching core in baseball, and there are holes all over the diamond and no hitting prospects to fill them and no budget to address them. It is bleak in Pittsburgh

Ben Clemens: so, I’m definitely trading from my prospect haul. I’m shopping everyone who isn’t currently in my starting nine. I don’t think the Hayes contract is bad, it’s $7 million, that’s below rate even if he didn’t turn into a star, for the record

Ben Clemens: it’s not hard to find competent hitters at non-challenging defensive positions. Mark Canha was available for 0 this year

Ben Clemens: the Tommy Pham deal not working out, so what? that was a smart move, I’d try to make more of those and I’d try to trade with teams for their guys too

Ben Clemens: why isn’t Nathaniel Lowe on the Pirates?

David: Why would anyone give Patrick Corbin a contract?

Ben Clemens: because he can eat innings, and because sometimes pitchers get good again out of nowhere

Ben Clemens: the guy has provided valuable innings to the Rangers this year!

Ben Clemens: he’s been better than Jack Leiter

Ben Clemens: will he keep being? I dunno

Ben Clemens: but it’s not like what he has done so far is worthless

Ben Clemens: if you told me this is how Corbin’s first five starts would go, I think I would have been MORE likely to sign him

Bosoxforlife: What kind of screening do the other owners do before allowing someone to purchase a franchise? It damages the game when people like Manfort and Nutting make no attempt to win.

Ben Clemens: I hate to say it, but this is Dick Monfort slander

Ben Clemens: the Rockies actually do make an attempt to win, which makes this all the crazier

Hello: What should the Giants do about their first base situation?

Ben Clemens: I think they should be looking to the trade market aggressively

Ben Clemens: like, with their current team construction, I like what they’re doing

Ben Clemens: but…. you can’t give LaMonte that much more rope

Ben Clemens: the team’s success is papering over how bad he’s been but you have to be cognizant that sometimes guys decline

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the replacement is in the franchise, unless it’s acquiring a different DH and moving Flores, but even that is kinda unexciting. Again, Nathaniel Lowe?

PokeyReese: 2025 Season Only: Jacob Wilson or Arraez?

Ben Clemens: Jacob Wilson

Ben Clemens: assuming I have a gap in the middle infield

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that he’s going to out-hit Arraez, but I think he’s going to have similarly shaped production and be more valuable on defense

George: Where would you rank Mark Lerner in owners you’d want your favorite team to have? His father spent a bunch but he/the family certainly hasn’t

Ben Clemens: Yeah, low but I’m willing to be convinced that he could move up

Matt: Bryce Eldridge wants a word

Ben Clemens: fine, let me rephrase…. I don’t think the 2025 replacement is in the franchise

Ben Clemens: which is fine, b/c there are plenty of short-term bats

Jed Hoyer: Can you give me a Kyle Tucker market value for an extension?

Ben Clemens: I dunno, 12/550? definitely climbing as he continues to rake

Bill James Handbook: Hey Ben I saw Aaron Judge’s prospect report predicted a grade 70 for both game and raw power. Would you go out on a limb and grade his power as an 80 now?

Ben Clemens: haha yes

Ben Clemens: looking back, we’re going to say that Judge changed the way we evaluate big hitters

LB: Are you more (a) concerned about Elly’s decline in power thus far or (b) encouraged by his incremental plate discipline gains?

Ben Clemens: b) because I don’t really by a decrease in power

Ben Clemens: buy*

Ben Clemens: it’s more that he’s hitting too much on the ground than that he doesn’t still have the power

Ben Clemens: his barrel rate and HR/FB aren’t moving

Ben Clemens: he’s still swinging hard

Ben Clemens: I feel like the stable stuff he improved is so important that it overwhelms what to me looks like mostly bad luck

Matt: Athletics are in a great spot, what do you think is the next defining move of this group? Backend of the bullpen is nasty, middle of the pen concerns me; Bleday seems to be the odd man out, and personally, I think this team is too good to have a low-tier defensive CF

Ben Clemens: we’ve talked at various poitns in this chat about a Jacob Young/JJ Bleday swap

Ben Clemens: I honestly think it’d make sense, with whatever value tacked on to make it line up

Ben Clemens: they specifically need a glove first CF imo

George: Given the risk of young pitching, would you give James Wood or Paul Skenes a larger extension? As a follow on to that, who’s the worst (relatively speaking) position player you’d extend for more than Skenes?

Ben Clemens: Skenes, because he’s better

Ben Clemens: if you could find two equivalent players I’d probably give the hitter more? but like, Skenes is so good

Max: Bregman is on pace for 7+ fWAR, almost certainly levels off at some point, but if he ends up north of 5.5, do you think he opts out?

Ben Clemens: man, probably

Ben Clemens: I think that the most likely outcome here would be that he re-ups for more with Boston

Ben Clemens: feels like a really good fit in a lot of ways

Steve O: Do you think the Yankees would let a Cody Bellinger opt in preclude them from pursuing Kyle Tucker?

Ben Clemens: no

Ben Clemens: $20 million extra is not going to be the difference in whether or not they offer someone half a billion dollars

J: How good do we expect Carson Kelly to be at the plate going forward? Obviously he won’t continue to be Barry Bonds, but the improvements in swings decisions and contact are so staggering that this clearly isn’t just a random hot streak.

Ben Clemens: I kinda like what ZiPS and Steamer have done with him

Ben Clemens: which is basically shade his career plate discipline up a little (makes sense to me)

Ben Clemens: and power (ditto)

Ben Clemens: without going completely crazy

Ben Clemens: that would make him an All Star catcher, basiaclly

Brad: Can Judge’s peak be in the conversation with Bonds peak?

GA Blood: Is Judge’s contract going to go down as the best FA deal ever?

Ben Clemens: I mean, isn’t it already in the conversation?

Ben Clemens: as for the deal, yeah, right now I have to say it’s the best deal ever

Peak: So, barring another Dodger wall (and he will play there this year), Judge is basically going to have secured a HOF career (broadly 60ish war to have a good case) within his best 7 years. Are people going to draft trying to find him or realize he’s just 1 of 1?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’re going to try to draft the next Aaron Judge b/c that’s just not possible

Ben Clemens: but I do think that teams are more interested in Judge-frame prospects now because he’s shown that there are very high end outcomes that are’nt just all power

Lord Thunder: LAD’s Muncy has had bad starts before, but usually heats up by now. How much of leash does he have to stay in the lineup?

Steve O: T/F the mets will be disappointed if Juan Soto is a 5ish WAR 150ish wRC+ player moving forward and not the 8 WAR monster he was last year.

Ben Clemens: I’m going to answer these separately but I put them both up at once because I think they’re different situations that look kind of similar on the surface

Ben Clemens: Muncy, I’m pretty worried here

Ben Clemens: He’s 34, and the way he’s failing is the way you’d expect Max Muncy to fail

Ben Clemens: I’m sure teh Dodgers have more visibility into this than me but this looks bad! the skills that don’t seem likely to age, his plate discipline, are’nt aging

Ben Clemens: it’s his ability to hit the ball hard that is

Ben Clemens: and he’s such an extreme fly ball pull hitter that if his quality ticks below ‘lift a bunch of these homers out’ then the plate discipline isn’t going to keep him afloat

Ben Clemens: I think that ti’s reasonable to give him more time b/c the Dodgers are playing so well that they can afford to, and we know he’s capable of being good

Ben Clemens: but…. I’d be willing to cut bait if it looks like this in a month

Ben Clemens: or at least, turn him into a backup

Ben Clemens: as for Soto, I think that the Mets would be a bit disappointed if he ended up as a career 150 wRC+ guy but not gutted

Ben Clemens: that’s a really good hitter! That’d be like, top 5 in baseball over the last 5 years, give or take

Ben Clemens: behind Judge, Soto, Alvarez, Ohtani, and Trout/Freeman depending on exacxtly what number you’re looking for

Ben Clemens: they’re at 155 and 153

Jeff: Any concern with McLain in cincy? Is he in danger of losing his job?

Ben Clemens: no huge concern from me. probably not gonna keep up his .207 BABIP. I’m encouraged that he’s walking more, though obviously the strikeouts are bad

Ben Clemens: he’s hitting the ball hard though! better batted ball data than his excellent debut year

Ben Clemens: also he’s probably going to strike out less gonig forward. He has a lower chase rate and lower first strike rate than he did in 2023

Bullock: All five pitches Jack Leiter throws have above average Stuff+, but he struggles to strike guys out.  Am I crazy to think that if he can develop even a little more command he would quickly get really good?  Or I’m just wishcasting…

Ben Clemens: well, if you’re wrong you’re in good company, I’m perpetually in on Leiter

Ben Clemens: I feel like stuff models have overrated him for a while, and I can’t quite figure out why

Ben Clemens: like, same deal in college, I was in love with his fastball, and it just hasn’t played as well as I thought it would

Ben Clemens: there’s some Jackson Jobe to him, too

Ben Clemens: great pitcher on paper but hitters have little trouble timing him

Bullock: Is “that guy’s just a slow starter” a real thing?  It’s said a lot about Santander, but I’m worried

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a real thing but I don’t have a study I can point to to prove it

Gil: Your Aaron Judge response on his contract has me thinking: Was A-Rod’s first deal akin to Soto’s? In other words, A-Rod had to perform to the level he did because his deal set the market in a way that no other player had to that point. Therefore, even though he was basically MVP level throughout, A-Rod’s couldn’t be the best deal, right?

Ben Clemens: yeah, that’s how I think of A Rod’s deal exactly

CM: Does anyone know if there’s a way to find team defensive metrics with a certain pitcher on the mound?

Ben Clemens: there sure is!

Ben Clemens: Statcast’s OAA leaderboard lets you do it by team, player, hitter, or pitcher

Ben Clemens: so here it is for 2025:

Ben Clemens: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Pit…

Ben Clemens: Andre Pallante has a +6 defense behind him so far. Max Fried has a -7 defense behind him

Broken Bat: Is Matt Brash a tradeable chip, or too soon to injury?

Ben Clemens: too soon due to injury but I think that his time will come

A-aron: Every article should basically be about Aaron Judge at this point, right? This is Ruth and Bonds back on the diamond.

Ben Clemens: basically

Ben Clemens: imo

Ben Clemens: not every article because there are so many great things about baseball to appreciate

Ben Clemens: but this is the story of the year

HappyFunBall: How much longer do the Nats need to play decently to be considered “frisky”? It’s kind of weird that a surprisingly bad bullpen is what seems to be holding them back. Not that I expected a good BP, just better than it’s been…

Ben Clemens: I think they already seem frisky

Tacoby Bellsbury: I’m loving the back-and-forth years of Judge and Ohtani. What’s Shohei going to do to one-up this in 2027?

Ben Clemens: what about a 50-homer, 150 IP season

Weird1@Portland: Is it wise to roster multiple multi positional players? I’ve got Arias, Romy G., Ibanez for example.

Ben Clemens: I like doing it

Ben Clemens: but! I’m not amazing at fantasy baseball

Ben Clemens: so take that with a grain of salt

KC Pain: How much is Elias job in danger? Drafting prospects is one thing. Only having a AAA championship to show for it is another. Stowers and Norby making him look pretty bad at the moment. Ownership said publicly hed spend, whether that is same behind closed doors who knows, but if he cant spend he has the prospect chips for reinforcements. The current team structure makes no sense, and why is Holliday still splitting time too often with Mateo?

Ben Clemens: I think that this is a question I can’t answer from the outside

Ben Clemens: I don’t know how the conversations between ownership and front office have gone, whether ownership thinks the current plan is what they should be doing, etc

Ben Clemens: okay, sorry for the abbreviated chat today but I’ve got some work to get to

Ben Clemens: Next week, I promise longer discussions of board games, food, non-baseball stuff that I’ve been skipping talking about b/c I’ve been trying to make these concentrated baseball since I’ve been in a hurry

Ben Clemens: have a wonderful week everyone