Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/16/25

Ben Clemens: Yeahhhhhhh let’s chat

Ben Clemens: But to be clear…. we’re probably gonna talk a LOT about Devers

Ben Clemens: and probably less about lunch than I’d like to

News of the Day: Today’s top story — “500 Internal FanGraphs Error, 0 is Undefined”. How can Red Sox fans use this as fuel to get John Henry to sell the team?

Ben Clemens: We’re still trying to figure out the outage but I think there’s a reasonable chance that Red Sox fans actually made the site a little unstable by hate-clicking on teh story so much

appa yip yip: “surplus value” escaping front office containment and entering general baseball discourse has made every conversation about trades worse. who cares if Devers’ contract doesn’t have surplus value he’s one of the best hitters on the planet and worth every penny and framing it as “the Red Sox had to get out from under it” just capes for ownership and distracts from this fundamental truth about sports: the entire point is to watch insanely talented people do absurd things that regular people can only marvel at. we are here to have fun watching the game and Devers is fun to watch. the Giants did a good and cool thing and the Red Sox should be embarrassed.

Ben Clemens: I…. I mean, yeah, I feel similarly. I’m pretty freaking excited that I just suddenly get to watch Rafael Devers every time I go to the ballpark. That’s cool

Phil: You would think that after all the money the Dodgers have spent the past 2 offseasons on Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani (not to mention Roki Sasaki), that there is NO WAY they would need a starting pitcher at the deadline… and yet here they are relying on the likes of Knack, Wrobleski, Sheehan, Casparius, Gonsolin and a 1000 year old Kershaw. Do you think they count on the return of Glasnow and Snell to buoy them or are they going out and getting another arm once again?

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll probably go get another arm, they just always seem to

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll do it even if they’re not sure they’ll need an arm. they should. you can’t fix it after the deadline, and well, why would you take the risk given how great the rest of the team is?

Oaktown Blues: Not me pulling the Jotcast link from the page source so I don’t miss the Ben Chat while FG is down lol. Love these chats

Ben Clemens: Haha yeah I did the same to get in

Bosoxforlife: Before we get to the elephant in the room I want to give you a huge shout out for directing me to cross the Roberto Clemente Bridge during my trip to PNC Park. It was great!

Ben Clemens: love it. I’m very glad that was fun, it was seriously one of my favorite parts of the trip

Jim: What is the record for comments on a FG article? Will the Devers trade article break the record?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it will. It might set a past few years record, but we’ve had some bangers over the eyars. trade value posts, big trades, those tend to get swamped

Oaktown Blues: Hi Ben. Last year, you wrote the article “Brent Rooker Is Who We Thought He Was”, about Rooker having success swinging hard in 2 strike counts, strikeouts be damned. At the time you published, he had a 34.6% K rate. He lowered that rate to 28.8% by season’s end. This year, his K rate is all the way down at 20.6%, better than league average. Is Brent Rooker still who we thought he was? Is he better?

Ben Clemens: He might be. I’m with you that there’s been an approach change. I think he’s going to strike out more than he is right now, because it’s hard to have a swinging strike rate this high and not strike out a bit more

Ben Clemens: I haven’t decided if I like Rooker more with fewer strikeouts and a tiny bit less power like this

Ben Clemens: but hey look, he’s still graet

anotherusername: I keep hearing/seeing that the Devers contract is underwater – is there a chance that the contract is not valued correctly as underwater in light of the Soto/Guerrero contracts? Or should those be treated as outliers?

Ben Clemens: Great question. I share your confusion on that point. I assume that the ‘all the models in baseball’ that Jeff Passan referred to also consider those deals underwater

Ben Clemens: The way I put it to Meg last night when I was pitching her on the way I characterized it in the article is this: I built a little modified surplus value calculator and overlaid ZiPS projecdtions and contract details for Devers. It’s not perfect, but if you’re dead set on viewing things in a surplus value framework, as in here’s how much your production would fetch on an open market, I think my assumptions were reasonable

Ben Clemens: first WAR is worth less, bit of an escalating shape of WAR value as you have higher WAR, based on free agent contracts ’21-’24

Ben Clemens: anyway, the first four years of his deal, counting this year, are fairly positive. tens of millions of dollars. the last five years are much more negative, 20s of millions of dollars

Ben Clemens: that’s what people are referring to when they say that, and well, yes, the contract, taken as a whole, will very likely cost more per WAR than the going open market rate? But…. there’s not really a going open market for players who post 4 WAR projected seasons. those guys can’t be easily traded for or signed

Ben Clemens: if baseball awarded the World Series to the team who had the most ‘above water’ contracts, then I am confident that Devers would not be in demand

Ben Clemens: but what? no. that’s not how it works. it’s a bad contract for a good player, but players play baseball, not contracts. That’s an oversimplification but I think it works as a first order pass

Eric: Would the Devers trade get less hate if it was done during the offseason since the ownership could immediately promise to invest the money elsewhere?

Ben Clemens: I think so

Ben Clemens: This felt weird, right?

Ben Clemens: honestly the winter felt like they didn’t REALLY want to spend even

Ben Clemens: aside from Crochet, of course, loved that, and loved the extension

Ben Clemens: but like, a deal with an opt out after a year for Bregman? a rehabbing walker buehler?

Ben Clemens: so I am very skeptical that they’re actually interested in re-deploying Devers’s money. And I’m gonna be skeptical all year. At least if they’d done it in December, yeah, they could have shown that they’ll use some of it

Key Flaw: You mentioned in the Devers article that you are a visual learner. You do know that learning styles like that was debunked generations ago, and the data shows that they cause harm in learning? Not to be a “well actually”, but learning styles is one of the more persistent toxic ideas in education.

Ben Clemens: I had absolutely no idea. That’s interesting. I love diagrams of things, they just click better for me.

John B: The Red Sox taking a lot of heat for dumping Betts, Bogarts and Devers for a bag of baseballs.  But that group produced and insane amount of WAR for controlled prices (80 + WAR).  Isn’t this what you are supposed to do from a value:price standpoint?

Ben Clemens: Right, like I said, value:price is one axis that is important to pay attention to. You’re not gonna get very far if you don’t know how it works. But if that was the entirety of the correct way to build a team, wouldn’t team building be far easier?

John B: Isn’t Mark Prior as your pitching coach simply a bad omen?  Why can’t they see this ?

Ben Clemens: lol

Ben Clemens: love it

Bosoxforlife: It was pretty clear that the Red sox were going to have to move someone after Anthony and Mayer were called up. It was assumed it would be Rafaela or Abreu but this move helps alleviate the logjam. I would be a fool to say that it doesn’t weaken the team as it stands now but Anthony will get ample opportunity on a regular basis instead of the in and out of the lineup stuff which hinders anyone’s play.

Ben Clemens: I mean…. yeah, fine

Ben Clemens: watch this, we took Shohei off the Dodgers, now it’s easier to find PT for Max Muncy

Ben Clemens: it’s not the same thing, but like, we’re worried that Devers is blocking Roman Anthony? No, that’s not how it works. Your bad starters are blocking him

Ben Clemens: if Jarren Duran is actually a plus centerfielder, what the hell is he doing in left?

Ben Clemens: Abreu is a platoon guy and he’s on the IL

Ben Clemens: Anthony is probably just as likely as Devers to be able to pick up first base, where freaking Abraham Toro is playing

Ben Clemens: Trevor Story is a shell of his former self

Ben Clemens: ah ha, we’ll just subtract Rafael Devers, our best hitter, from this mix, THAT’S why we were blocked

Opifijikl: Is the site running into more 502 errors this week?

Ben Clemens: an absolute ton, unfortunately

Ben Clemens: we’re doing our best on the back end to fix it

Ben Clemens: cloudflare has been a freaking nightmare of late, writing 5 things last Thursday in the midst of the outage was awful

Oaktown Blues: Jacob Wilson is the clear frontrunner for AL ROY. I read a comment somewhere that, even though he was rookie eligible, on multiple prospects lists, and on the roster on opening day, he’s not eligible for a PPI pick. What gives?

Ben Clemens: I randomly know the answer to this one because I did some research for an article. It’s b/c PPI defines eligibility by days on a major league roster

Ben Clemens: and RoY eligibility stems from days on an ACTIVE roster

Ben Clemens: Wilson came into the year with 73 days of service time but more than a month of that was on the IL

Schmegs: How is a guy like Harrison, who’s best pitch is supposed to be his fastball, mesh with and org like Boston that doesn’t throw many fastballs?

Ben Clemens: Honestly, I could see it working

Ben Clemens: first, get him back together with Andrew Bailey, don’t hate that. Second, Harrison’s fastball is his best pitch, but his ability to throw it that well suggests to me that he has the ability to manipulate a baseball better than he is now. and the threat of that scary fastball means that even if he uses it less, people will fear it. so he probably has the talent, raw physical talent, to develop secondaries. and they’ll play up if he manages it

Bosoxforlife: The Red Sox were 110% correct in passing on Bogaerts who is already barely above replacement level. You can pencil me in to say that this move is also going to turn out to be a good one for the Red Sox. It isn’t hard to see Devers washing up in a short time.

Ben Clemens: I agree on Bogaerts. That deal was a real eye opener. I am trying to look back at what I wrote about him heading into that winter but, 502 errors, lol

Ben Clemens: also did you know that he was FOUR years older than Devers when he signed that deal? Kinda wild, Devers is just younger than I think

Harrison <–> Bailey: Do you think the same benefits Harrison will get out of Andrew Bailey’s pitching dev/philosophy will also get more out of Jordan Hicks?

Ben Clemens: mmmmm… as one of the world’s most pre-eminent Jordan Hicks opinion havers, you’re going to get more than you bargained for here

Ben Clemens: Is Bailey going to say “Hey Jordan, you’re a reliever?”

Ben Clemens: because if so, oh yeah, magic wand waved

Ben Clemens: I really wanted to believe in Hicks as a starter, and mayyyyyybe the Red Sox can make it work. But his issues weren’t like, oh, suboptimal pitch mix, oh, I need to learn a new breaking ball

Ben Clemens: they were like oh, sometimes I’m sitting 91-92 in the third inning, sometimes my fastball command jsut isn’t there, I absolutely crumble facing batters a second time

Ben Clemens: Is this a fixable thing over time? Perhaps. But the big holdup with him becoming a starter didn’t seem, to me, to be that he didn’t get enough opportunities or didn’t have three viable pitches (the changeup is eh, but…. it’s at least eh). It’s just that he isn’t a starter; he seems to work a lot better in high effort short stints

G: 500 errors stopped me from getting here before the flood of Devers questions (and presumably the “Aaron Judge is really good, will he be bad” questions that flooded last week) but Ketel Marte is walking 15%!! More than he’s striking out!! I just feel like it needs to be talked about somewhere

Ben Clemens: Yeah

Ben Clemens: here’s one for you

Ben Clemens: I’m doing a ton of backchecking and re-grading of my past trade value series, same thing I do every year when I’m setting up for this year’s edition

Ben Clemens: and Ketel has been too low

Ben Clemens: I re-ranked 2022 by a blend of accrued WAR + projected WAR, modified surplus value off of that, peak WAR — I think it does a good job of roughly mimicking how I think about value in a formulaic way

Ben Clemens: by that metric, the top 5 from the 2022 list, in terms of retrospecdtive trade value if I knew how the world would play out for the next three years:

1. Bobby WItt
2. Jose Ramirez
3. Ketel Marte
4. Julio Rodriguez
5. Mookie Betts

HappyFunBall: For years we’ve wondered what it would be like if a team with resources ran themselves like Tampa. Now we know…it is underwhelming

Ben Clemens: haha right?

Ben Clemens: although, to be fair, the DOdgers also do that

Ben Clemens: just, better

Bosoxforlife: It wasn’t that long ago that Jose Ramirez was not recognized for the truly great superstar that he is.

Ben Clemens: he and Marte are actually really similar in that the way they get to their production just feels weird and so I think people overlook them

Ben Clemens: I write every Ketel Marte extension article here, it’s a FanGraphs tradition, and I’m always like ‘hey this deal seems great! why isn’t he getting more??’

Phil: Having just watched Greg Weissert baaaarely make it through an inning against the Yankees with a two-run lead (the real problem there being the injury to Slaten and the insane overreliance on Chapman, who continues to be old), I have no problem with Hicks being a reliever, particularly if that means a good reliever. Yes, he’s overpaid for that function, but it’s the reverse of your point about Devers–the goal isn’t to maximize value, it’s to win baseball games.

Ben Clemens: totally. Hicks should be a reliever. He was already a reliever with the Giants, the starting just wasn’t working. I assume that’s what they’ll do as soon as he’s off the IL. I wrote in my recap that he’s their best piece for 2025 out of this deal and I stick to that feeling

Tuntz: Found it surprising in the Devers trade article that you mentioned that Tibbs for your money could be the best player the Sox got. Is that more of a vote of confidence in Tibbs or a lack of belief in Harrison to live up to his potential?

Ben Clemens: I’d say more of the second. I am willing to be proven wrong (one of my good qualities, I’d not so humbly say) but I have a tough time buying it. The other Giants kids were just consistently lapping this guy. Like, is it really the pitching dev if Hayden Birdsong and Landon Roupp are developing well enough over the same time? A change of scenery is nice but I’m getting bust vibes from Harrison

Some kinda Mook: I am a Red Sox fan that’s not as down on this deal in raw terms as most people. But I will say that it is kinda a huge bummer, either way.

Ben Clemens: I think that a lot of the reason for the visceral responses is the pattern

Ben Clemens: like, I shouldn’t be able to say “as so often happens, the Red Sox decided to trade their best player for money reasons”

Ken: Short term and long term, where does Devers play in San Francisco? 3B, 1B, or just DH?

Ben Clemens: so short term, I think DH. I would not move him to 3rd with Chapman likely back soon. Long-term, he should play first base, and I bet that with an offseason to work on it and better messaging, that’s how it’ll end up

Ben Clemens: if he really wants to just DH, though, if I’m the Giants, sure, taht’s fine, go right ahead, just keep depositing balls in the cove please

Ben Clemens: it doesn’t add THAT much roster flexibility to be a 1b/DH instead of a DH

John B: Is it more or less likely that the Red Sox move Story now?  More or less likely they re-sign Bregman after opt out (assuming he opts out)?

Ben Clemens: I mean, much more likely that they try to resign Bregman if he opts out

Ben Clemens: god, could you imagine if he opts out and the Red Sox end up having a hole at third base?

Ben Clemens: as for Story, well, I don’t think not moving story is for lack of trying

Guest: How do you think this trade affects Buster Posey’s standing as a GM?

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll get more credit than he deserves, but I think it was good business

Ben Clemens: like, hey someone calls you up and says “you know how your team consistently whiffs on signing stars to huge dollar deals where, at the time of signing, it’s unclear whether they’re good deals? would you be interested in getting one of those players?”

Ben Clemens: i mean…. what, was he gonna say no?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know, this doesn’t feel like 4d chess to me. You’re saying that if you were the Giants GM, you wouldn’t have the wherewithal to realize that it’s good to have Rafael Devers?

Appa yip yip: If you’re bregman do you even want to sign with Boston long term? Presumably he will have a more robust market this offseason

Ben Clemens: I mean, I won’t put myself in his head

Ben Clemens: I don’t think this deal necessarily should make him a ton less likely to re-sign

Ben Clemens: he’s seen the business of baseball, he saw the Stros not retain him

Ben Clemens: I agree that his market will be robust. If he actually wanted to play somewehre else and just signed this as a stopgap, sure, he might go hit a bid away. But I think he’s a good fit for Fenway and I think that there would be protests on Yawkey Way if he signed away. The Sox will probalby just back up the truck to avoid the bad PR

Oaktown Blues: Wouldn’t Posey deserve credit if he was the one to broach the idea to BOS? I think I read a report that they didn’t shop Devers to other teams, which would square with the notion that it was the Giants who pushed for this

Ben Clemens: If that comes out, then yeah I guess? But also, I would assume GM’s are always doing this

Ben Clemens: that part I’m not sure about

Guest: Can you talk about Devers’ contract details? There’s $75 million in deferrals,  which seems pretty big, and a $20 million signing bonus paid over his first four years. Who pays the bonus?

Ben Clemens: so the deferrals are in the math, basically 7.5 million of every year’s salary gets paid 10 years later

Ben Clemens: I just NPV’ed that

Ben Clemens: the signing bonus, I haven’t seen it covered directly but generally the way that works is that the original signing team has already agreed to pay it so they just pay it. Same way that the Sox owe Devers 7.5 million in 2034, even though obviously he’s not a Red Sox anymore

Didace: “The Sox will probalby just back up the truck to avoid the bad PR”. And then trade him in two years?

Ben Clemens: too soon

Junior Caminero Jr.: Why do you think writers and talking heads tend to generalize Tampa as a great pitching, light hitting team year in and year out as if it’s still 2010 or so?  Is it laziness about not wanting to research a small market team’s ebbs and flows in strategy, or do you think it’s a more valid critique than I would like to think?

Ben Clemens: partially, haha

Ben Clemens: I’m one of those writers, writing is easier if you have a few narratives to follow

Ben Clemens: but yeah, I think it’s also that the Rays continue to TRY to do their pitching thing all the time

Cardinals Enjoyer: As a Cardinals fan who just watched an amazing April/May, ignoring troubling underlying statistics, and seeing this early snapback to reality for the team, what do you think their aims should be in the deadline? Personally I think they should set of Chaim Bloom with a top-10 farm system at all costs, do you see the Cardinals being able to be sellers to any impactful extent?

Ben Clemens: I have been kinda pessimistic on the 2025 team but the reasons I was pessimistic haven’t tracked with what’s gone down

Ben Clemens: basically the pitching has been meaningfully better than I expected, Libby in particular

Ben Clemens: but this rotation is not really tehre yet, imo. and MAN, Jordan Walker not hitting is a bummer

Ben Clemens: I think they should be trying to get younger particularly in pitching. and truthfully, I think that’s gonna happen, but I doubt they’ll go full accelerationist and trade Helsley and Gray, even though I’d probably bite the bullet and do it

Justin: Ben, loved your write-up on devers. In your article you said that a team 26 two win players wouldn’t make the playoffs. I understand the point you were trying to make, but wouldn’t that roster actually make the playoffs? 52 wins above replacement on one team seems pretty good. Thanks!

Ben Clemens: I probably should have said ’26 true-talent 2 WAR players’

Ben Clemens: like yes, your 8 2 WAR reliever bullpen would be ludicrous

Ben Clemens: what about your bench being basically four hall of famers, to be able to put up 2 WAR apiece in so few PA’s

Phil: By the way, there is no Yawkey Way anymore, on account of Tom Yawkey being a racist: it reverted to Jersey Street (and the extension of it on the other side of Brookline Ave is now David Ortiz Way).

Ben Clemens: oh my goodness

Ben Clemens: well that’s good

Ben Clemens: protests on David Ortiz Way

Ben Clemens: hey, it’s even a DH street

G: Also on Devers, ultimately this is where Boston could get the most cents for their dollars, right? Yoshida-Anthony-Abreu-Duran-Rafaela, there was so much smoke about how the stumbling block with Duran was that they just were not going to get enough value back. And SF basically said, we’ll pay you to jump on your grenade because we need it so bad. From a value retention standpoint, this was probably the most efficient maneuver. I think what people aren’t really coming to grips with is the fact that the Red Sox feel that they have to win AND be value/cash efficient to some degree. And the last five years are a departure from the last twenty in that respect.

Ben Clemens: ah yes

Ben Clemens: like I said

Ben Clemens: hoist the value retention banner

Ben Clemens: value is an axis of trades

Ben Clemens: I write a crap ton about value

Ben Clemens: who writes about value more tha nme?

Ben Clemens: if you think that’s the only axis by which to evaluate baseball, you do not understand baseball, in my opinion

HappyFunBall: We realize, of course, that Tibbs could end up being Alex Verdugo v2 yes?

Ben Clemens: yes, he’s very much of that archetype

Sir Nerdlington: Are we at the point where the baseball’s drag coefficient needs to be collectively bargained?

Ben Clemens: lol

Ben Clemens: every time I read one of Eno’s articles on this I’m like ‘wow how is this possible?’

Ben Clemens: it really is crazy

Ben Clemens: I don’t even think MLB is doing this on prupose, like WHY

Bencle Mens: The Devers news is outshining the fact that Ohtani is pitching today. That’s a good indicator that it wasn’t an ideal trade

Ben Clemens: lol, now that is true

Ben Clemens: I’m really excited for the Ohtani start

G: Boston 3B hole would be filled by Mayer, right? Just means you keep the Story albatross

Ben Clemens: I mean, that’s maybe worse?

Ben Clemens: jerk around your prospects to accomodate a 4 WAR stud, fine

Ben Clemens: jerk around your prospects b/c this guy you signed four years ago who had some surgeries and never was the same is still drawing salary? that’s bad

Ben Clemens: iamgine looking at a lineup with Devers and Story and going ‘yeah, we need to get Devers out of here so that things flow more smoothly’

Ben Clemens: I’m being harsh, I know, I know

Ben Clemens: but like…. look at all these problems and complications they’ve created for themselves

George: Do you have any opinion on the Davey Martinez saga in DC? I don’t really think there is ever a downside to moving on from any non-elite manager for a non-playoff team?

Ben Clemens: I’m reading about it now and…. yeah haha, they need a change of scenery

Ben Clemens: I’m a big davey fan overall, tbh

Ben Clemens: my Nats fan friends have convinced me that he’s a good clubhouse guy

Ben Clemens: but like, let’s just fix this

Ben Clemens: there’s no real downside in moving on, your players might want to hear some new voices

Cardinals Enjoyer: Do you see a way home for Jordan Walker, and if so how long do the Cardinals keep him as an every day guy to try an harness his powers. I think him not hitting may be the most upsetting thing that has happened to this team in recent years as an avid supporter of the franchise.

Ben Clemens: It’s definitely one of the most surprising things to me

Ben Clemens: I was ready for Walker to be BRUTAL in the outfield

Ben Clemens: or to struggle with strikeouts

Ben Clemens: but I’m sorry, THIS guy can’t hit for power?

Ben Clemens: THIS guy has 8 bombs over 358 PA in the last two years?

Ben Clemens: he’s built like Aaron Judge

Bosoxforlife: How much do you fear that Ohtani’s incredible offense may be negatively affected when he returns to pitching?

Ben Clemens: I’m not NOT worried, is how I’ll put it

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a good idea of how to handicap it because I just have no priors to map it to

Ben Clemens: but how can you not worry about it?

Ben Clemens: he got a lot better at hitting when he focused on it full time

Hunter: Does Riley Greene get enough credit for the Tigers being good? I’ve seen/read a bunch of stuff from national writers/podcaster trying to figure out if/why the Tigers are good and it seems like Riley is always just sort of briefly acknowledged if he’s mentioned at all.

Ben Clemens: I don’t really know how to grade the views of national sportswriters, but if that’s the case, that’s weird to me? Comfortably the best hitter on the team, and a really good hitter, and the Tigers are 6th in the majors in runs scored even in Comerica

DeeBo: “Breslow graduated in 2002 from Yale University with a degree in molecular biophysics and biochemistry. He was named the “Smartest Man in Baseball” by The Wall Street Journal in 2009, and in 2010 he ranked No. 1 on The Sporting News list of Top 20 Smartest Athletes.” I’d like to think that if WSJ named me the smartest man in baseball in 2009, I’d have the self assuredness to omit that on my official bio on the Sox website

Ben Clemens: lol oh man this one made me chuckle

Ben Clemens: I don’t know, if I got ranked the smartest man in baseball, I might put that somewhere, haha

Ben Clemens: I guess I just looked at my bio and it’s very simple, so maybe not?

Ben Clemens: but…. eh, I don’t hold this against him. also he may not have written it. he almost certainly didn’t come up with all the accomplishments to include

appa yip yip: what do you think ohtani would slash if he got 100 plate appearances against himself?

Ben Clemens: lol

Ben Clemens: I’d say…. his regular line

Ben Clemens: b/c he’d have the platoon advantage

Ichiro: Would you take the over or under on the Mariners’ 56.2% FG Playoff odds?

Ben Clemens: over

Michael: How legitimate is Jeremy Pena’s breakout? Pulling the ball at a career high level and has cut his chase rate and K rate.

Ben Clemens: ask me again in a month. I’m thinking a lot about this specific question right now. I will say: I buy his xwOBA over his wOBA, dude’s not gonna keep babip’ing .364 with this contact mix

Ben Clemens: but even if he’s a 120 wRC+ shortstop with his glvoe ,that’s a breakout

Eric: Ohtani had a 179 wRC+ hitting when he last pitched in 2023, basically the same as the 181 he’s put up in 2024 and 2025. He had developed into this level as a hitter before his pitcher injury.

Ben Clemens: yeah…. look, I’m not saying this is completely unassailable fact

Ben Clemens: I’m speculating

Ben Clemens: I said it’s all a guess

Ben Clemens: it’s possible that yeah he’s just figured it all out

Ben Clemens: I think it’s reasonable to worry that maybe he hasn’t

Just Fowl: Do the Red Sox need to find a new position for Kristian Campbell? Currently tied for last place in OAA for second basemen @-7. Once Bregman is back, Story and Mayer make up the best MI defense for the team. They already pulled the plug on trying him at 1B, and there are two, maybe three better CFers on the team.

Ben Clemens: I honestly don’t get why Campbell isn’t learning first

Ben Clemens: yeah he is NOT good at second

Ben Clemens: and that really matches with the scouting report, too

Ben Clemens: to add to the Ohtani thing, b/c I realize I came off kinda dismissive:

Ben Clemens: yeah like…. he has, before, hit and pitched very well at the same time

Ben Clemens: he has not, generally speaking, done it consistently for long periods of time. I never want to bet against Ohtani but I also think that unease is warranted. Like, maybe he’s a 160 wRC+ hitter instead of 180?

Tony Mansolino: Should we trade O’Hearn even if we’re ~5GB at the deadline? At least to re-stock prospects, and maybe flip them in the offseason for pitching?

Ben Clemens: The flip here should be to Boston, right?

Ben Clemens: Only, lol, good luck!

Ben Clemens: um, I think that trading O’Hearn is reasonable, but I think that the recent deadlines have shown that hte market for 1b/DH bats, particularly platoon bats, is not robust

Ben Clemens: I am guessing the O’s will do it b/c the Elias/Mejdal braintrust isn’t one to pass up getting some future value

Ben Clemens: but I think it’s gonna be for less than you hope

Bosoxforlife: I watch every game and Campbell, at this time, does not look like a major league player on either side of the ball, but it is the defense, or total lack of it, that stands out.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, haha, well said

Ben Clemens: Honestly I can see it at the plate even though he’s not producing

Ben Clemens: but I cannot see it in the field. He looks bad out there. lost

Wirefan: Is part of the reason the RedSox are playing Campbell and Rafaela full time while playing Mayer and Anthony part time is the former 2 have signed ectensions?

Ben Clemens: I dunno, that feels maybe a little leading, but I do think it’s a key reason they both started the year in the majors

Ben Clemens: and maybe that leads into the latter

Mike Elias: What should I learn from this Devers saga? Be nice to players? Don’t value my roster 4 years from now over today? Maybe buy Gunnar Henderson a plane and a house??

Ben Clemens: I mean, honestly I don’t think Elias would do this

Ben Clemens: his errors, in my opinion (debatable, I mean, he’s a much better baseball executive than I am, but my job is to opine), are that he’s very focused on winning every trade

Ben Clemens: not that he’s trying to get rid of his best players ever

Ben Clemens: he’s actually too attached, it seems to me, if anything

Okra: T or F : the Devers trade crashed Fangaphs?

Ben Clemens: it kind of feels that way to me, lol

Ben Clemens: I don’t know, Cloudflare itself doesn’t seem overrun

Ben Clemens: unlike last week

MyBloodyBallantine: At least Rafaela has 1 elite tool (his defense). Right now, Campbell has nothing and honestly looks like he needs more time in AAA.

Ben Clemens: I agree with this. Rafaela’s fit with the team is awkward because they have a ton of outfielders, but there’s no doubting his center field bona fides

Ben Clemens: I would very happily play him in center every day if I weren’t trying to fit Duran, Anthony, Yoshida, Campbell, and Abreu in the outfield too

Ben Clemens: and yeah, at this point, it’s not like Campbell’s bat is undeniable. I still think it will be. But he’s not looking like a 2025 breakout

Okra: Can we talk about Denzel Clarke having 8 (EIGHT!) OAA in CF in only 21 games?

Ben Clemens: we sure can

Ben Clemens: ah, dang, I tried to link to 5 things from last Friday (he led the column) but the site is back down

Ben Clemens: here

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-things-i-liked-or-didnt-like-this-wee…

Insert Witty Name Here: Missed the chat last week, wanted to ask if you watched all of that Roland Garros final? That was almost BoSox down 3-0 and coming back to win the World Series type comeback!

Ben Clemens: oh my goodness what a match

Ben Clemens: I will say, I felt like somehow the balance shifted way to Alcaraz as it went on, but not b/c Sinner faltered or anything

Ben Clemens: if anything he got better?

Ben Clemens: Alcaraz’s level just kept rising and rising

Okra: If pitchers have consistently great numbers but the pitch models don’t like them, what are the model most likely missing?  Deception in delivery?  Tunneling / how the pitches play off each other?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, all of these, “funk”, sequencing, ability to adjust what you throw based on the hitter

Ben Clemens: “pitchability” essentially

Ben Clemens: I don’t think this is fixable. like, models can’t pick up on those things, that’s why they’re just models

Ben Clemens: maybe new models could do better. but some amount of fuzziness is unavoidable

Ben Clemens: you gotta see what actually happens in real life at some point

Guest: Sorry to interrupt but I am in need of some help with splits leaderboard. I am trying to narrow down Teams vs LHP over the past 30 days for AVG, K5, HR, and ISO. I cant figure it out on my own. Is there anyone that can assist?

Ben Clemens: apologies in advance for the big long list

Ben Clemens: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=1&split…

Ben Clemens: link*

Ben Clemens: but basically, I think this should do it? Phillies have 12 HR vL in the past 30 days, 1 ahead of the Dodgers

Bosoxforlife: Clarke’s Spiderman catch is in the Top 10 I have ever seen. Now if only Rafaela and Clarke could hit we might see the return of the great all-around centerfielders that I grew up with, Willie, Mickey and The Duke.

Ben Clemens: that catch was SO crazy

Ben Clemens: I don’t think words do it justice

Mark: Ben, I’m glad you enjoyed Wrigley Field, and I agree that the in-park amenities are inferior. My only comparison is with American Family Field in Milwaukee (I still call it Miller Park!), and AFF has much more to offer. The only thing good at Wrigley is the hot dog from Grill locations, cooked on a grill, avalable with grilled onions, and with a dedicated condiment stand with the accoutrements of a proper Chicago dog: celery salt, neon-green relish, yellow mustard, sport peppers, and a pickle. And I quit buying beer at the ballpark several years ago; I just can’t pay $14 for any beer, let alone a mediocre one. But here’s the thing: I go to see a baseball game, and in my opinion there’s no better place than my seats, second row of the upper deck, looking down on short left field. I’m an old fart and a baseball purist, and I admit I don’t interface with the new paradigm. But remember, there are dozens of restaurants and bars within a few blocks!

Ben Clemens: I sit in the upper deck at Oracle a lot, for sure

Ben Clemens: and yeah, the experience at Wrigley is great. I won’t knock anyone for liking it. doesn’t line up with the stuff I like most but you can’t argue iwth the history and the ivy

Guest: it’s funny to me that in the final form of hitting, it appears zone contact doesn’t actually matter – Judge and Ohtani have sub 80 zcons this year. get good enough at crushing your pitch and watch it fly

Ben Clemens: you might like this story

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-tale-of-two-fastballs/

Steve: Do the Braves extend Acuña in the next couple of years? If so, what does that deal look like?

Ben Clemens: hmmmmm…. great question

Ben Clemens: I’m really unsure!

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll try to. But he might want to hit the open market given that he’s already set for life and already signed a big extension rather than test the market

Where were you: Where were you when you found out when Devers was traded? I was playing pickleball

Where were you: It’s a segment of where were you! 😂

Ben Clemens: ooh, nice. I was at home getting ready for sunday night baseball watching

Ben Clemens: which was convenient!

Ben Clemens: Meg pinged me like ‘you around?’ and luckily I was

Sean: Dipoto is getting a lot of grief for not making the playoffs consistently, but if you look at the good he’s done, like extending Julio and Cal, the Kelenic & Castillo & Arozarena trades, farm system rebuild, it would suggest he has done a pretty good job.  Is it ownership mainly holding this team back?  Is Dipoto one of the best?

Ben Clemens: the ownership is definitely a big headwind here. And I do think that overall Dipoto has done a good job

Ben Clemens: one of the best? I dunno, it’s so hard to grade

Judgement Day: The Red Sox broke Aaron Judge this weekend: True or False?

Ben Clemens: You know what? I’m gonna go out on a limb and say false

Ben Clemens: alright, I’ve gotta head out and eat some lunch (leftover numbing red cabbage and peanut noodles with turkey meatballs from last night, A+ meal)

Ben Clemens: thanks a ton for sitting here and letting me pontificate even more on Rafael Devers today, and I appreciate all of your contributions and opinions as well

Ben Clemens: Have a wonderful week, everyone, and let’s do it again in seven days

Ben Clemens: maybe not the blockbuster trade on Sunday night part, I wanna get some rest