Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/15/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna try to do a speed round type deal today because this is a heavy week of work for the trade value series

Ben Clemens: I’m not gonna answer any trade value questions, of course, that’ll be reserved for next Friday’s trade value chat, but there’s a ton of other stuff to talk about and I’m going to try to fly through it

Champdo: So how hard will it be to solve Rainer’s bat speed problem?

Ben Clemens: I think Eric’s various draft profiles do a better chance of answering this than I could hope to, particularly in chat form

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna try to keep my draft questions focused on process stuff and team strategy rather than going into the particular pluses and minuses of an individual player, that’s not really my skillset

Ben Clemens: that said… no clue!

Princess Leia: Help us Obi-Wan Clemonobi you’re our only hope! Still annoyed that I didn’t add Langford over Carroll last week. He’s now on my top competitors team and I’m losing all hope for Carroll..

Ben Clemens: I still feel very good about Carroll going forward, like I said, if he’s your worst player, your team is probably quite good

The person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Ben Clemens: Leftover Thai food today

Dan’l: Do I get to enjoy a Winn/JJ pairing at some point? Maybe even for 3 years??

Ben Clemens: I could see it. I’m pretty hyped about Wetherholt as a fan b/c I kept seeing him in the top 3 available players

Carlos Danger: Juan Soto: .984 ops, 23 homers, hitting .243/.431/.456 over his last 30 games…. Rafael Devers: .977 ops, 23 homers, hitting .310/.382/.664 over his last 30 games. But Soto has a 20-point advantage in WRc+ still. Is this not an example of walks being overrated?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a good reminder that a)Fenway is a great place to hit

Ben Clemens: b)OPS can be confusing when one guy OBP’s a lot higher

Ben Clemens: c)well your past 30 games thing is confusing b/c over that sample, Devers has a higher wRC+ than Soto

Ben Clemens: so like…. what are we doing here?

Marcos: How are you sizing up the Mets/Cards/Giants/Reds/DBacks/Pirates/Cubs scrum? Any chance the Dodgers, Brewers, or Braves fall back into this group?

Ben Clemens: I think the Braves and Brewers are juuuuuuust above the fray, I think that both are going to be more aggressive adding at the deadlin as a result

Ben Clemens: the Dodgers could, I guess, but their underlying numbers are just a lot better than everyone else in that group

Ben Clemens: they have the second-best BaseRuns record in the majors

Ben Clemens: hard for me to believe they’re secretly bad

Sonny: Is it possible to get all statcast pitch info in a given day? Like one large csv export?

Ben Clemens: Sure. Go to the baseball savant statcast search page:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

Ben Clemens: Put in game date >= the day you want and also <= the day you want

Ben Clemens: after you run that report, hit the little spreadsheet with chain export button

Ben Clemens: et voila

Gary: What do you think are the top factors as to why starting pitchers are so inconsistent from start to start

Ben Clemens: I think there are two main factors. One, plenty of pitching results are outside of pitchers’ control

Ben Clemens: hitters sometimes hit very good pitches, they also frequently miss mistakes

Ben Clemens: the other factor is that the start-to-start variability of stuff is real. sometimes you’re just feeling a little worse, sometimes you’re feeling better. Path dependency also means that sometimes you get to throw your best pitches less

Okra: Are teams upset with the league for not controlling the consistency of the MLB ball better?

Ben Clemens: 100%

Ben Clemens: I don’t know which direction they want it to go, but the lack of control a)makes it harder to build teams b)makes everyone look bad

George: Do you think that team Stuff models incorporate body data to include deception? I’m thinking about DJ Herz who’s generating elite in-zone whiff rates on a generally poorly rated fastball because of a funky delivery where he almost wraps the ball behind his back.

Ben Clemens: I think that modeling deception is certainly an AIM of team stuff models

Ben Clemens: I do not know whether they’ve succeeded. It’s a phenomenally tough thing to handle

Ben Clemens: And given that there are so many different kinds of deception, you almost necessarily have to use results-driven data to get an idea

Dj: Prediction on who gets the last two wild card spots in the nl? I go Mets and F’backs. Also would you agree that Lindor is a stealth mvp candidate?

Ben Clemens: I think Lindor is not gonna win MVP, b/c too much of his value is tied up in defense

Ben Clemens: and defense is hard to measure, so MVP voters consistently favor offense over defense

Ben Clemens: I think that he’s one of the most underrated players in baseball, though, and think that he’ll certainly get MVP votes. A hot second half that puts the Mets into the playoffs would probably get him into the top 3. The whole “but look at his WAR” argument might not work when Bryce Harper is hitting .301/.403/.579, but I bet you people will use it to figure out their down ballot votges

Insert Witty Name Here: Thoughts on Wimbledon? Ladies match was compelling but the gentleman’s seemed like it was over after the first point. Also, I just read Andre Aggasi’s autobiography, highly recommend!

Ben Clemens: What a bummer of a finals. I woke up at 7:30, 1h30 into the match, thinking I’d catch the juicy part

Ben Clemens: whoops!

Ben Clemens: I wish that someone with a bit more star power were in the women’s finals, even if it was just Sabalenka or Swiatek, who I feel like are better than they are popular

Ben Clemens: women’s tennis has been incredibly compelling for the past decade, tons of great matches and wild intra-match swings, but I feel like the constant churn of who’s in the finals makes people overlook it

Mike Imanaga II: What would you do if you ran the Cubs this deadline?  Alot of their roster is kind of fixed, but the sum of the parts isn’t exactly working….

Ben Clemens: I hate to say it but I’d stand pat

Ben Clemens: I just feel like they need to take more time figuring out what they have. If they are on a winning streak and closer to the playoffs at the deadline they should add some relievers

Ben Clemens: and if they’ve fallen out hard, they can trade some rentals

Ben Clemens: But they just need this team to be better, for the most part

Okra: I get that Cleveland has a great bullpen and good offense, but I can’t wrap my head around a team being this good with a rotation that’s this bad (25th in ERA, 28th in WAR).

Ben Clemens: the Brewers, too!

Ben Clemens: I think that something is going to give, but probably in both directions; the Guardians offense will cool while the starters do a bit better

Ben Clemens: I’m less sure in Milwaukee, I realllllly don’t believe in their rotation

Ben Clemens: maybe they’ll make some trades to shore things up, though

romorr: Any sense on what Erick Fedde is going to cost as far as prospects? Feels like 1 top 100 guy, in that 50-100 range, and another interesting piece. But with a lack of options, I don’t feel good about that being the case anymore.

Ben Clemens: I think that’s about right. The Jordan Montgomery trade last year is maybe a good marker

Ben Clemens: extra year of control but less exciting underlying stats

Ben Clemens: but on the right side of the ‘can this guy start in the playoffs’ divide for me, which is a big deal

Okra: Who do you believe in more ROS?  Spencer Schwellenbach or Gavin Stone?

Ben Clemens: I think this is a minority opinion but Schwelly

Eminor3rd: My gut reaction to Hagen Smith to White Sox was that it was a strategically poor fit, given that the combination of how close Smith likely is to the Majors plus the fact that he’s had TJ already make him maybe the “shortest term” value guy in that general range. On the other hand, BPA is BPA, right? I just can’t shake the feeling that the Sox just essentially got an exciting guy that we’re very likely to watch them trade in a few years.

Ben Clemens: That was also my first reaction. I don’t pretend to be a Smith expert but archetypically it feels weird

DC: How concerning is it that Pittsburgh went prep on all three Day 1 picks?

Ben Clemens: It’s not, to me at least

Zack: How do we justify the Mariners hard hit % and barrel rates being top 5 or so in baseball yet their avg and other metrics so poor… bad luck or something greater? K% awful as well obviously

Ben Clemens: swing hard, in case you hit the ball

Ben Clemens: they just seem to largely not hit the ball

deBride: With tiebreakers the Brewers are 5.5 games up on STL for the Central lead, but only 2.0 games behind LAD for the #2 seed. Does it kind of feel to you too like they are way closer to losing the division lead than being the #2 seed?

Ben Clemens: it really does

Ben Clemens: I think that’s because of the state of their starting pitching

Ben Clemens: and the fact that even though they haven’t really filled this role in recent years, the Cardinals still FEEL like the NLC boogeyman

Ben Clemens: also like, it’s the Dodgers. They have Shohei and Mookie and Freddie and soon Clayton

Ben Clemens: even when they’re catchable, they don’t FEEL particularly catchable

Asking for a Friend: Is it allowed under the MLB rules to pitch with different hands (arms?) within the same plate appearance?

Ben Clemens: yes if the batter gets replaced

Ben Clemens: no otherwise

Ben Clemens: this came up when Pat Venditte was around

Ben Clemens: the pitcher declares which side he’s going to throw from for the entirety of the plate appearance, and then the batter also picks

Okra: Will the positional adjustment for DH be adjusted soon?  It seems too harshly negative

Ben Clemens: We’re planning on looking into positional factors this offseason

Ben Clemens: Can’t tell you what the results will be b/c we haven’t done the work

Theo be Praised: When do you predict we’ll have some sort of automated ball/strike system in MLB?

Ben Clemens: 2026

Jason: I don’t see that you’ve answered the question about who you think will get the last two NL Wild Card spots…

Ben Clemens: I’m sure I answered the other part of the question instead

Ben Clemens: I say Braves and Mets, b/c that’d be funny to me, but with very low confidence

Tim: Is there any research out there on what types of lineups tend to do best in the postseason? Ie. the Yankees having two stellar hitters surrounded by a bunch of guys who can’t reliably get on base has created a ton of runs but doesn’t feel like a great strategy for the playoffs. No clue if that’s backed up by the numbers/history, though

Ben Clemens: Love this article from Ben Lindbergh

Ben Clemens: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-playoff-myths-to-ignore/

Natitude Adjuster: I was a little surprised the Nats got an actual prospect and the 39th pick for Harvey.  Did that seem like a good return for the Nats to you too?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, good job by the Nats there

Ben Clemens: in my opinion at least

Ben Clemens: It’s a great case of reading the room, too. the Royals bullpen is bad both in results and projections, so they probably need to make a bunch of trades

Dan: If a pitcher was truly incapable of holding a runner, everyone steals second and third whenever the base is open, fast runners steal home how good would they have to be to be worth rostering? Could the be an opener and just pulled after their first hit?

Ben Clemens: What if one of the first two batters gets on?

Ben Clemens: I actually think that this player would be unrosterable

Ben Clemens: if it’s a true 100% steal chance

Okra: Assuming it’s roughly ‘market rate’ expected cost for each; what do you do if you are Baltimore front office?
a) elite rental – Flaherty
b) high risk/reward – Crochet
c) screw it get the best guy – Skubal
d) boring SP depth – Z. Littell

Ben Clemens: Depends on what they think their extension roadmap looks like

Ben Clemens: I’d get Skubal if I thought re-signing him was part of my optimal strategy

Ben Clemens: I’m not a GM obviously, and I think that some team will trade for Crochet, but I would not

Ben Clemens: I just don’t like the risk/reward distribution here

graphsman: Who’s the best prospect you’d consider including as part of Crochet package (assuming it doesn’t involve someone else like Fedde)? I feel like it starts a bit after the 60 fv tier, maybe around Coby Mayo ish, but I’m not sure how good I’d feel about that given the durability concerns. He’s so good right now though

Ben Clemens: Like, I would not trade Mayo for him

Ben Clemens: but I bet you some teams would do the equivalent

The Oriole Bird: Speaking of the Orioles and “extension roadmaps,” WTH are they going to do with all their young guys?  I would’ve hoped the first couple up (Rutschman/Henderson) would get extensions.  But yikes, now they have a ton of good young guys–which is great–but no clear path to signing some to long-term deals.  Thoughts on their strategic options?

Ben Clemens: I would find a big suitcase full of money and show it to Gunnar

Ben Clemens: tell him he can buy all the sweet cowboy outfits he wants with it

Ben Clemens: Figuring out what contract to offer Rutschman is kinda confusing

Ben Clemens: Catchers have been signing very team-friendly deals recently

Ben Clemens: Look at Will Smith

Ben Clemens: but why would Adley do that?

Ben Clemens: I’d be interested in signing Corbin Burnes, too, if I were them

Ben Clemens: the idea being that the position player spigot is running full force right now but they don’t have enough pitching, so pay up to get an elite pitcher and plan on being very talented and efficient in other areas

Phil: Wasn’t the “incapable holding a runner” guy just Jon Lester? In which case the answer is there is no such thing as a 100% steal guy, because players are too afraid of either getting hurt or some other weird thing happening (catcher makes a miraculous throw or whatever).

Ben Clemens: I mean, sure, but this is more of a hypothetical

The Oriole Bird: Gunnar Henderson sure profiles a lot like Cal Ripken at this point.  (Not saying he’ll end the same.  And big point of deviation is Henderson’s speed.)  But that’s cool from a history-repeating-itself lens, right?

Ben Clemens: It really is cool

Alern: Why do your projected standings consistently total 2429 total wins and losses (one short of 30×81)? Was there a rainout that you don’t expect to be made up? Thanks!

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s the suspended game

Ben Clemens: there’s a suspended game, I forget which one, that needs to be resumed later

Ben Clemens: so we don’t project it as a new game, but the stats aren’t final yet

Ben from DC: Any takeaways from 2 weeks of James Wood in the bigs?

Ben Clemens: The guy is as talented as the reports

Ben Clemens: far too soon to tell what will happen with him but the hype was not fakew

Ken: I’m a huge Excel hound but looking to level up a bit – for the sort of work you do, what’s the most valuable tech-side skillset? ie. SQL, Python, etc

Ben Clemens: probably sql? I do a lot of querying and knowing how to download the right dataset is very helpful

scuffy McGee: What do you make of Spencer Torkelson’s demise?

Ben Clemens: It’s hard to predict baseball (Suzyn)

Ben Clemens: more broadly, amateur bats just don’t develop in linear ways

Rickety Cricket: A lot of ink has been spilled over the Phillies potentially trading for one of Rooker, Robert or Chisholm, however I haven’t seen too much on them with regards to Randy Arozarena. While all four of them would benefit from not having to be “that guy” on their respective teams and instead joining one of the deadlier lineups in baseball, I think Randy would be a better fit due to his defense and playoff pedigree. Would the Rays be willing to sell low on him and could the Phillies put together a prospect package that doesn’t include Painter, Miller or Crawford?

Ben Clemens: I don’t see it, to be honest. It’s a shallow system and while before the year I would have said Mick Abel, I think the Phillies probably aren’t interested in selling low on him

Ben Clemens: maybe the Rays are willing to take like three guys they’re very interested in, but trying to protect the top names in a thin system makes for an unattractive offer

Generic Name: Thanks for the chat. If you were given the opportunity to run the Rockies what would be your approach? I was thinking about this and I would want to build a roster with defense and pitching at the core.

Ben Clemens: I think I’d want to opt for power

Ben Clemens: I like the idea of Brenton Doyle types for sure

Ben Clemens: I think that outfield defense, specifically, plays up in Coors b/c there’s just so much space to cover

Ben Clemens: but I’m also interested in trying to score a ton of runs, b/c let’s be real, buliding the rockies around pitching just sounds like a recipe for failure

M. Elias: Is there a hotline for people who are addicted to toolsy college outfielders?

Ben Clemens: i mean, so far so good!

scuffy McGee: what are the current rockies built around? Sadness

Ben Clemens: the concept of dramatic irony

Ben Clemens: the Rockies act as though they don’t know things that the rest of us do

Ace: It’s funny what you said about women’s tennis. I’m a dude, who grew up watching more women’s / Steffi Graf and Monica Seles and Jana Novotna (her crying at Wimbledon was heartbreaking, so glad she won it) … and yet I can name far more of the men nowbecause it seems more obviously differentiated peaks and stars (the Alcaraz / Sinner’s)

Ben Clemens: yeah, having the stars in the finals really matters

George: Would you move Abrams off SS? The Nats are in the position to just give him reps there in my opinion, but at some point if you’re going to contend you need a better defender there. Feels complicated by their OF prospect depth.

Ben Clemens: I would stick it out, I just don’t believe he’s QUITE as bad as the statcast numbers suggest

Ben Clemens: I see a lot to like there, too. His errors are trending the right way, and making errors on plays he gets to is definitely his biggest weakness

Ben Clemens: it’s my opinion that he has the tools to succeed and just needs mroe reps, and I don’t think it’s an arm issue where he just can’t get enough accuracy or power and so they’ll always be there

Johnny5Alive: I hate to say it but Stearns job would have been easier if the mets didnt get hot again recently.  I am all for (hopefully) making the playoffs, but there will likely now be pressure to add and im not sure this is the group I want to be trading prospects to upgrade.  At least if they were still playing poorly, you got alonso, severino, manaea, bader, etc. to deal.  Thoughts?

Ben Clemens: Eh…. gimme the playoff chase, it’s fun

Ben Clemens: I trust Stearns to keep the ship going in the right direction long-term

Ben Clemens: and the point of the game is to make the playoffs and win trophies, so like, more bites at the apple seems good

Josh: Is it cool for you to know that, like, Josh Rojas read your article about him? Or is it scary to think that the subject of any piece you write will be reading and reacting to your thoughts?

Ben Clemens: Much more cool than scary

Ben Clemens: It’s definitely weird, don’t get me wrong

Ben Clemens: but I’m not really throwing hot takes out there

Ben Clemens: I think that if you forced me to recite my articles to the plyaers they were about, I’d be able to do it without fear of angering them, because I’m trying to come from an objective perspective and I think I’m pretty positive overall

Idiotic Failson: The Yankees feel way worse than their record. If you’re Brian Cashman, what do you do to make this team a legit WS contender?

Ben Clemens: I mean, what do the Yankees need to do to make Yankees fans happy? Last week there was a crisis and they were gonna win 30% of their games the rest of the year

Ben Clemens: then they win a series against the O’s, nearly sweep them, and if anything it seems the mood is worse

Ben Clemens: I think that the Yankees need another infielder, hopefully some relievers too, but i don’t look at this team and go ‘oh no it sucks’

Gator: Have you finally given up on Ke’Bryan Hayes?

Ben Clemens: 🙁

Ben Clemens: Yeah

Ben Clemens: classic situation where I still like my process and I expect to like players like Hayes in the future

Ben Clemens: good contract, tons of good statistical markers, you have the CHANCE to really hit a home run

Ben Clemens: but the problem is, he couldn’t hit home runs

Ben Clemens: I’ll bet on guys like that again, b/c you don’t need to be right all that often

Ben Clemens: the floor is extremely high, he might STILL be an average player this year

Ben Clemens: but when they don’t pan out, they don’t pan out. gotta stop living in the past and accept the present

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Dan: Can Ben Rice be used to let the Yankees aggressively pinch hit for their catchers since he’s always their if your second catcher gets hurt? Is he not ready for MLB defense at catcher? If there a cost of switching catchers mid game beyond using up your bench?

Ben Clemens: yes

Refugee: Re: Yankees vibes, that’s strictly the gap between how bad a 1-run walkoff loss feels versus how bad it actually is, no? I feel like it’s the least harmful type of loss (much worse than your starter getting blown out or your offense failing to fire for nine innings).

Refugee: sorry much *better

Ben Clemens: I think losing on an error is just the WORST

Ben Clemens: it’s that, but also, Yankees fans have consistently considered their team worse than our models have

Ben Clemens: since I’ve been writing here

Ben Clemens: 5 years now

Farhandrew Zaidman: Were the scouts/projections wrong on Gavin Lux, was the injury and lost time that big a deal, or has there been a true talent change here?

Ben Clemens: surely there’s been a talent level change there. your guess is as good as mine whether the PT/injury have caused that or been results

Ben Clemens: i mean, clearly the projections were wrong in this specific case, in a very literal sense; they didn’t project him correctly

Ben Clemens: but there’s a lot of error baked in

Ben Clemens: I think that the markers that led both scouts and models to like him are generally good markers, but that they’re hardly foolproof

Dan: Are you worried about Ragans’ 3-start velo dip? He’s so good and has so many pitches, but his velo has been down across the board.

Ben Clemens: i’m not worried yet

Ben Clemens: I’ve done some thinking on this one b/c spoiler, he’s on the trade value list, and not low on it

Ben Clemens: if he comes out of the ASB throwing even softer, I’ll re-assess, but generally speaking I am always a little worried about velo drops, but a little less worried when you still strike out 21 in 18.2 innings

Manfred blues: Was baseball better when MLB juiced the balls for the 16-19 era?

Ben Clemens: I thought so, tbh

Ben Clemens: offense is fun

Ben Clemens: i’d prefer it to happen on balls in play but i hate when a two-run lead feels insurmountable

Kate: How worrisome is Altuve’s elevated o-swing this year?  Is this the type of thing that starts to creep up as guys age and fall off?

Ben Clemens: it is definitely ONE of the ways that age shows up

Ben Clemens: age doesn’t show up in a single consistent way

Ben Clemens: I think that, all things considered, it’s a sign of aging that I’d prefer elevated chase for Altuve

Ben Clemens: b/c he’s so good at hitting things

Ben Clemens: even when he chases

Ben Clemens: I’d prefer more chases to worse quality of contact

Dan: I know throwing behind/around a batter makes it much harder, but do you think we could ever see a left-handed catcher (prob a backup) who can really hit and fill in occasionally at the position? If they’re an excellent framer who adds offense but just can’t throw, you have Jose Trevino with a better bat.

Ben Clemens: I do, I think the issue is just that not as many of them develop

Ben Clemens: or sorry, there are fewer to start

Ben Clemens: I’d totally be in favor of a lefty catcher, as a lefty myself

Malloy: (via Art But Make It Sports)

Kate: How much of Michael Toglia’s awful BABIP is bad luck and how much is deserved?  Hard to see a guy running a BABIP THIS low (.180) playing half his games in Coors.

Ben Clemens: yeah it’s wild

Ben Clemens: Statcast has his xBABIP at .327

Ben Clemens: I would cuff it slighlty lower b/c of pull tendencies, but not by a ton

Ben Clemens: just like, yeesh

Ben Clemens: this kind of stuff evens out but it’s pretty wild

Kate: What do you make of Tyler O’Neill’s 2024 season?  His hot start, while obviously unsustainable, didn’t look like it was luck driven and a lot of the struggles seem to have started immediately after the injuries started to pile up.  Is this something where he’s probably going to be playing compromised the rest of this year and will need an offseason to get fully healthy?

Ben Clemens: This is Tyler O’Neill

Ben Clemens: the struggles pile up when he gets hurt

Ben Clemens: he’s been very good when healthy historically but his build just seems to make him injury prone

Eddie: Purely as a fan, who you rooting for tonight? Fun as it would be for one of the young guys break out in a big way, I’m dying to see JoRam’s swagger after a win

Ben Clemens: Gunnar

Ben Clemens: I just find him so fun

Ben Clemens: JoRam is probably number two on my list though

All great yes but: Please rank these 3 as to which is a bigger upcoming boost for the game of baseball, the return of Mike Trout to the plate, the return of Jacob deGrom to the mound, or the return of Clayton Kershaw to the mound?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s Kershaw b/c he’s on a likely plyaoff team

Ben Clemens: alright, i gotta get back to the grindstone. Thank you for all your questions today, and I’m sorry I couldn’t get to eveyrone’s, there were a huge pile of great ones today. My regular chat is canceled next week, because I’ll be doing a chat about the trade value series on Friday, so have a great two weeks and I’ll talk to you then.

Guest: I feel like the years go by faster as I get older. How is it, then, that Kris Bryant is still only 32?

Ben Clemens: okay also had to add this question in at the end

Ben Clemens: that’s what I like about Kris Bryant. I keep getting older, and he stays the same age