Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/10/20
by Ben Clemens
August 10, 2020
| 2:00 |
: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.
|
| 2:00 |
: I’m on semi-vacation this week (well, not actually on vacation, still writing a normal amount, just doing so from a cabin in the woods) so if my internet connection is a bit jumpy, sorry in advance.
|
| 2:01 |
: Today, I wrote about the first place Rockies as an excuse to show people that I can do statistics:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rockies-are-hot-is-it-time-to-re-evalu…
|
| 2:01 |
: Let’s talk about some baseball, as well as hopefully some other stuff
|
| 2:01 |
: Hope you are doing well Ben. Will the Cardinals play this week? If they don’t, it seems unlikely they would be able to play a complete 60 game schedule. Could you see their schedule being truncated to 50 or 55 instead?
|
| 2:02 |
: I don’t see them playing before the weekend, at which point I think they’d have to shorten their season.
|
| 2:02 |
: There just aren’t enough days to handle it otherwise
|
| 2:02 |
: It’ll be weird, but eh, this season was already guaranteed to be weird
|
| 2:02 |
: I think we’ll manage
|
| 2:02 |
: Do you have any favorite “fun” or bizarre facts from the short sample so far? I just looked and noticed that Aaron Judge is rocking a 3.1% walk rate and 8 of his 17 hits have gone for homers. This is certainly a sustainable rate and I’m excited to see it.
|
| 2:03 |
: I like Carlos Santana walking 200% of the time, and I like negative FIP’s, of which there are many
|
| 2:03 |
: But I think my favorite line of the season so far is Tatis’s .810 slugging percentage
|
| 2:03 |
: Like, what?
|
| 2:03 |
: Guess that Tatis guy is OK, huh?
|
| 2:04 |
: Yup
|
| 2:04 |
: How many Astros and Athletics should be suspended? When will we find out?
|
| 2:04 |
: Jose Berrios is throwing harder but getting hit harder still! Are there pitchers who shouldn’t throw harder?
|
| 2:04 |
: Whoops,threw the Berrios one in there accidentally, so I will quickly say, throwing harder is generally good and I think it’ll work out
|
| 2:04 |
: Back to A’s/Astros
|
| 2:04 |
: Should Alex Cintron be reprimanded, suspended, or fired for his actions last night? A follow-up: what do you think punishment will actually be?
|
| 2:04 |
: Thoughts on the laureano fight?
|
| 2:05 |
: I just saw a video of it, wasn’t watching live
|
| 2:06 |
: But I think Cintron should absolutely be suspended
|
| 2:06 |
: Laureano is going to have to get something
|
| 2:06 |
: But Cintron was kinda the villain here, no?
|
| 2:06 |
: Understanding small samples. Is the only reason a worse team beats a better team is due to luck?
|
| 2:06 |
: I’d say that luck is a really misunderstood term
|
| 2:06 |
: In some sense, yes, it’s luck
|
| 2:07 |
: But I don’t think that use of luck is the way pepole think of luck
|
| 2:07 |
: If you pick a card out of a deck and it’s the seven of spades, was that luck?
|
| 2:07 |
: In the way I use the word, yes.
|
| 2:07 |
: In most people’s use, probably not?
|
| 2:08 |
: So bad teams beat good teams plenty
|
| 2:08 |
: Not b/c anything fluky happens
|
| 2:08 |
: But b/c that’s how random chance works
|
| 2:09 |
: As a very simplistic and reductive way of thinking about it, no way do hitters know within three feet where they’re hitting a ball
|
| 2:09 |
: But sometimes those three feet matter
|
| 2:09 |
: And if one team is ever so slightly better than another, maybe the sum of the breaks of the game work out in their favor 55% of the time
|
| 2:09 |
: But they also don’t work out in their favor 45% of the time
|
| 2:09 |
: It’s hard to say ‘oh the 55% is fair, and the 45% is unlucky’
|
| 2:09 |
: deGrom is clearly one of the finest to ever do it but is he good enough that you would take him over Seaver in a all-time Mets pitcher discussion? Do we need more longevity for that? Also, fun fact: The Mets had a .438 winning percentage in games deGrom started during his back to back Cy Young years!
|
| 2:10 |
: Are you digging through my pile of article ideas?
|
| 2:10 |
: (I was considering writing about this, probably when we haev more of the season in the bag)
|
| 2:11 |
: I think I’d still take Seaver
|
| 2:11 |
: But it’s close
|
| 2:11 |
: If deGrom shoves this year and next, easy dg
|
| 2:11 |
: If I want to easily find and download PITCH f/x data (or data similar to it) for every single pitch last year, how would I do that?
|
| 2:11 |
: Lot of tricky words in here
|
| 2:11 |
: So, you could just go to baseball savant
|
| 2:11 |
: Here’s their search:
|
| 2:12 |
: It’s got pretty much everything on every pitch
|
| 2:12 |
: BUT
|
| 2:12 |
: it has batch download limits
|
| 2:12 |
: I think you need to cut it up into two-week chunks or something
|
| 2:12 |
: Kyle Lewis still looks good!!
|
| 2:12 |
: Feel good story of the season so far?
|
| 2:12 |
: Kyle Lewis
|
| 2:12 |
: Hey it turns out firing a couple guys doesn’t magically fix an organization’s culture problems which have nothing-nope-absolutely-nothing-at-all to do with the owner of said organization!
|
| 2:12 |
: I mean, I didn’t say it.
|
| 2:12 |
: Derek here did
|
| 2:12 |
: But uh, yeah, shocking
|
| 2:13 |
: How do the Cardinals play 60 games, and if they play 45 does going by percentage to determine the (playoffs?)seem as absurd to you as it does to me?
|
| 2:13 |
: It seems silly to me
|
| 2:13 |
: But so does this whole season
|
| 2:14 |
: And so does a 16-team playoff
|
| 2:14 |
: I think I’ll live with it, because I’d rather them do this than try to jam those games in
|
| 2:14 |
: And they can’t exactly have them just forfeit the season but keep playing
|
| 2:14 |
: If you are in the Tigers FO, do you call up Mize and/or others to go for at least a playoff run or do you stick with the long-term plan?
|
| 2:14 |
: I would 100% call them up
|
| 2:14 |
: That said, I’m probably too present-oriented to work in a front office
|
| 2:15 |
: I want the fun now, and I assume I wouldn’t be employed there in six years anyway
|
| 2:15 |
: I think they will probably not
|
| 2:15 |
: And they had a pretty easy schedule, which might make them a little more skeptical that they’re good
|
| 2:15 |
: But I wish they would
|
| 2:16 |
: Does MLB go straight with the draft order or do something weird next year?
|
| 2:16 |
: I think they’ll go straight draft order, dunno what else they could do?
|
| 2:16 |
: Most projection systems use 60/30/10% percent weights for each of the last 3 seasons. Do you think these weights will change next year with 2020 only being 60 games long?
|
| 2:17 |
: Missed this one earlier, but this is interesting
|
| 2:17 |
: Yes for sure
|
| 2:17 |
: I would assume you’d want to do 60/30/10 assuming equal PA
|
| 2:17 |
: and then de-equalize the pa, if that makes sense
|
| 2:17 |
: When do teams (cough angels cough) start addressing their needs through trades?
|
| 2:17 |
: Didn’t realize anyone was looking for an Arte Moreno in the market this year
|
| 2:18 |
: Wait so a team can’t, just for one day, play better than another team even though overall they are worse, it’s just luck?
|
| 2:18 |
: Oh no, I think it’s that too for sure
|
| 2:18 |
: I just think that “luck” is an overused term
|
| 2:18 |
: Whereas like
|
| 2:18 |
: random variance
|
| 2:18 |
: is probably a better way of saying it
|
| 2:18 |
: I guess I under-covered that in my explanation as well
|
| 2:19 |
: Anyone can have a day where they feel at their 25th percentile or at their 75th
|
| 2:19 |
: Is it luck which of the two you’re at?
|
| 2:19 |
: Or just variance?
|
| 2:19 |
: I’m not sure I’m explaining this well
|
| 2:19 |
: But I guess my point is, saying a team is ‘better’ just means ‘in more than half the possible worlds, they’re better’
|
| 2:19 |
: I think that lately I feel 25th percentile on my 75th percentile days. Should I get that checked out?
|
| 2:20 |
: Buddy I feel 10th percentile on my 90ths
|
| 2:20 |
: It’s been a hell of a year
|
| 2:20 |
: As a Rays fan, I really just want to see Nate Lowe and Randy Arozarena. Plus with Chirinos and Morton injured, throw McKay/McClan/Ryan in there.
|
| 2:20 |
: Good god I want to see Randy so much
|
| 2:20 |
: Just do it
|
| 2:20 |
: He might be so good!
|
| 2:20 |
: No no that last part I understood, good explanation thank you!
|
| 2:20 |
: Yeah I think I forgot the ‘people have good and bad days’
|
| 2:20 |
: But thanks
|
| 2:21 |
: A draft lottery would be one idea or a combination of 2019/2020 records. The lottery would be bonkers and the most randomized fun which is why I shouldn’t be in a FO either.
|
| 2:21 |
: I’d love a lottery
|
| 2:21 |
: Don’t think they are doing it but heck yeah
|
| 2:21 |
: I also love the ‘games after elimination’ model
|
| 2:21 |
: That the NBA batted around for a while
|
| 2:21 |
: as soon as you’re eliminated from the playoffs, you’re eligible to receive a ‘draft order win’ for every win
|
| 2:21 |
: And whoever has the most draft order wins drafts first
|
| 2:21 |
: Rays clearly have some holes. The offseason pickups/extensions of Margot, Renfroe, Zunino, and Tsutsugo. Who do you believe figures it out and who do you believe gets replaced (and by who)?
|
| 2:22 |
: I would like to see more Randy, as I said. Also I like Zunino and Tsutsugo
|
| 2:22 |
: I’m not quite in on Renfroe
|
| 2:22 |
: So maybe he’s the first to go?
|
| 2:23 |
: It’s really hard to parse at this point in the season because they haven’t given people enough PT to know yet
|
| 2:23 |
: But uh, they have 23094820394823 rotation players and 9 spots, so that was always a risk
|
| 2:24 |
: What sort of market, if any, do you see for Brandon Belt and should the Giants try to get something for him this year?
|
| 2:24 |
: In our OOTP league he got moved for a 45 FV guy after the Giants ate basically all of his salary
|
| 2:24 |
: Not that this is representative of reality, but something like that DOES make sense to me
|
| 2:25 |
: He can hit, and the Giants are gonna be paying him anyway
|
| 2:25 |
: Why not pay him to play somewhere he can make the playoffs and get an interesting name out of the deal?
|
| 2:25 |
: Say the Reds finish 33-27 (.550) and the Cardinals finish 25-20 (.556) in the fight for 2nd place in the NL Central. By winning percentage the Cardinals would have the claim on the playoff spot, but by the traditional “games back” metric, the Reds would be in front by half a game. I assume that winning percentage would carry the day, but should it?
|
| 2:25 |
: I feel like I should know the answer to this, but I don’t.
|
| 2:26 |
: Which *should* win? I’d side with winning percentage but I’m not confident in that at all
|
| 2:26 |
: Just off the top of my head
|
| 2:26 |
: Thoughts on Andres Gimenez so far? He doesn’t look overmatched at the plate to me, which is a bit of a surprise
|
| 2:26 |
: absurdly SSS but Gimenez looks so much better than Rosario – whose ABs look terrible and never seems to improve. Not sure my question other than what is scouting community seeing with these two and how much longer until they switch?
|
| 2:27 |
: I’m a long-term believer in Rosario but he has looked *lost* at the plate this year
|
| 2:27 |
: Like, total disaster lost
|
| 2:28 |
: Too early to say much on Gimenez, I think, he’s just BABIP’ing a ton
|
| 2:28 |
: The Mets don’t have to make any decisions just yet given their injury issues, but I think they’d have to consider at least making them co-starters when everyone’s back and healthy
|
| 2:28 |
: Rosario has bad stats but he also just looks so bad at the plate
|
| 2:28 |
: Give him a reset or something
|
| 2:28 |
: He’s just swinging with no clue what’s coming
|
| 2:29 |
: why aren’t the giants bringing up Bart, haven’t we crossed the threshold where he would accrue a full year of service so the money can’t be the reason
|
| 2:29 |
: Yeah but if they hold him down all of this year and then for the first 14 days NEXT year
|
| 2:29 |
: that’s even an extra year of service time
|
| 2:29 |
: And if one free year of service time is good, two is better
|
| 2:29 |
: So the visitor training facilities at Sahlen Field are apparently outside, meaning no/poor AC, I think? Is it so wrong of me to hope for a *minor* heat wave?
|
| 2:29 |
: So long as you really mean minor, I don’t think so
|
| 2:30 |
: But boy that doesn’t sound like a great situation
|
| 2:30 |
: What happens if it rains?
|
| 2:30 |
: The 1981 season had teams play unequal numbers of games due to the strike. I think deciding the standings based on winning percentage is inevitable. It’s not just that Miami and St. Louis have lost a bunch of games, the clubs they were supposed to play have had their schedules affected too.
|
| 2:31 |
: Yeah that makes sense to me. I think the Cardinals broke the camel’s back, not everyone is playing 60
|
| 2:31 |
: gregory soto .. favorite reliever of 2020 so far
|
| 2:31 |
: I’m partial to Jonathan Hernandez b/c I wrote about him on basically a hunch
|
| 2:31 |
: And then he’s good
|
| 2:31 |
: Why do the Rays insist on platooning Brandon Lowe? I think his bat is for real, 30% k rate aside
|
| 2:32 |
: Because they can, basically. If they weren’t so stacked I think they’d be happy to run him out there every day
|
| 2:32 |
: But the temptation to upgrade is strong
|
| 2:32 |
: Hi! I recently became a member and started learning more and about analytics. Are there certain blogs or other things you suggest i check out? thanks!
|
| 2:32 |
: So, I wrote a few refreshers on sabermetric concepts earlier this year
|
| 2:32 |
: Which I will dig up:
|
| 2:34 |
: Those cover some key points about what is interesting, what isn’t, and so on
|
| 2:34 |
: I think that Ben Lindbergh’s old article on WAR is still great:
|
| 2:35 |
: And of course, our glossary is excellent, though forever in need of updates
|
| 2:35 |
: We are working on it! I was starting on that project! And then the world fell apart
|
| 2:35 |
: But it’s still tremendously useful, if a few years out of date
|
| 2:35 |
: Eddy Alvarez is such a fun story. Thus far, considering he’s an olympic speed skater, I half expected him to be much quicker per statcast sprint speed. I’m watching him anxiously and excitedly.
|
| 2:36 |
: I’m not sure how speed skating would carry over into sprinting
|
| 2:36 |
: But yeah, presumably it wouldn’t make you slower
|
| 2:36 |
: As for platooning BLowe, he’s actually had 36 PAs vs. RHP and 21 vs LHP. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s approaching the spread of handedness throughout the league.
|
| 2:36 |
: Oof, felled by the actual facts of the matter
|
| 2:37 |
: Okay, maybe they platoon him the right amount then 🙁
|
| 2:37 |
: Cronenworth!
|
| 2:37 |
: Also love him
|
| 2:37 |
: More in a ‘this guy is underrated’ way
|
| 2:37 |
: I didn’t expect him to be contributing this much this year though
|
| 2:37 |
: The Padres really did this offseason well
|
| 2:38 |
: Even with Pham not hitting yet, Cronenworth and Grisham have looked excellent
|
| 2:38 |
: What would happen to scoring if there was just one huge inning… the visiting team batted through all 27 of their outs first, then the home team batted through all of theirs (or as many as needed until they outscored the visitors)?
|
| 2:38 |
: It would go wayyyyy up. How much up? I’m trying to decide if this is something I could write an article about
|
| 2:38 |
: It might be short
|
| 2:38 |
: But it would definitely be goofy
|
| 2:39 |
: And I already have a script for scoring in a regular game
|
| 2:39 |
: So I could probably scrape something together
|
| 2:39 |
: Is Yaz a big part of the future for the Giants? I know his BABIP is high this year but he seems to be more disciplined at the plate. Seen some people say he’s gonna be a good starter for the giants and some saying he’s a utility guy at best
|
| 2:39 |
: Oh I’m in
|
| 2:39 |
: He already looked good and then he developed a perfect batting eye
|
| 2:39 |
: Into it
|
| 2:39 |
: Dylan Moore is drawing a little hype for his exit velocity following some adjustments made recently. He has yet to draw a walk, though. Small sample size aside, should he be given a shot at 2B; Shed Long sent back to the pool. I’ll leave White alone for now.
|
| 2:41 |
: I think it’s just far too early to say much of anything about batted ball skills on various guys
|
| 2:41 |
: Moore has struck out a third of the time, so it’s like, what, 30 batted balls?
|
| 2:41 |
: I suppose I’m intrigued, but I still like Long more
|
| 2:41 |
: Did Hosmer just take 2018 off and now he’s back to his old “I’m only good in even years” self?
|
| 2:41 |
: Apparently!
|
| 2:42 |
: Although wasn’t he good in odd years?
|
| 2:42 |
: Hm yeah
|
| 2:42 |
: He’s odd years
|
| 2:42 |
: So, we’ve got nothing
|
| 2:42 |
: Also, his 0.3 WAR in 16 PA this year has actually decreased the absolute value of his WAR on the Padres
|
| 2:42 |
: So, the past two years haven’t been great, is what I’m saying
|
| 2:43 |
: Where does the hate for Austin Allen’s defense come from? He’s made some very athletic plays and seems like a decent framer.
|
| 2:43 |
: I hadn’t heard of this hate, so I’m gonna have to pass
|
| 2:44 |
: Gonna quickly read our prospect evaluation on there
|
| 2:44 |
: on him*
|
| 2:44 |
: Yeah I dunno
|
| 2:44 |
: Are you familiar with Ticket to Ride Europe? Just got it, and hate the impact of the blue destination cards and the cost to pass through tunnels, but it’s not bad. Better than the original?
|
| 2:45 |
: Yes, I have actually only played Europe though, not regular
|
| 2:45 |
: So I’m not sure if I’m a good judge
|
| 2:45 |
: Haven’t played it recently, but I always love the feeling of completing a long route
|
| 2:45 |
: Which keeps me coming back for more
|
| 2:45 |
: Cricket has everybody bat in one big “inning,” but cricket doesn’t have base-out states. The big problem for the pitching side in a 27-out inning would be pitch counts.
|
| 2:45 |
: Yeah the lack of stranded runners would just be really crazy for scoring
|
| 2:46 |
: If you have a game with 4 hits and 3 walks, and no reset of base/out state, it’s kind of hard not to score at least 4 runs
|
| 2:46 |
: Given the unknown long term complications of COVID, would it make sense to just park your top prospects on the taxi squad and not risk having them travel with the major league team this year?
|
| 2:46 |
: Grim, but entirely reasonable
|
| 2:47 |
: Joey Votto’s contact rate is absurd but he’s not impacting the ball with any power whatsoever. Is this small sample size or the new normal for Votto?
|
| 2:47 |
: I think it’s probably a bit of both
|
| 2:48 |
: He’s had a power outage the past two years already
|
| 2:48 |
: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez have all looked pretty below average to varying degrees. Do you think this is a sample size issue and nothing more, or are there some genuine underlying concerns for any of these guys.
|
| 2:51 |
: Devers has looked too swing-happy at the plate when I’ve watched him this year. I haven’t really seen many JD at-bats, but it seems… more concerning than Devers, at least. And Benintendi looks like pure sample size theater to me
|
| 2:51 |
: Re: Sahlen Field they have like, a big tent set up on the concourse so rain will stay off and presumably AC pumping into the tent but uhhhhh don’t think it’ll keep the cool air in very well
|
| 2:51 |
: I just want dudes sweaty and cranky before the game even starts
|
| 2:51 |
: Okay, well, that sounds like a mess
|
| 2:51 |
: But yes, given that you can definitely root for it to be a little hot
|
| 2:51 |
: Not in the upper 90s or anything, that’s dangerous!
|
| 2:51 |
: But 85 and muggy? Sure
|
| 2:51 |
: When are you guys going to start posting community articles again?
|
| 2:52 |
: I don’t know the answer to this, but I’ll endeavor to have it for you by next week’s chat.
|
| 2:52 |
: The other day Santana was 0-0 with four walks but had to ruin it in his fifth AB by hitting the ball.
|
| 2:52 |
: Jerk
|
| 2:52 |
: More Mets. Alonso also doesn’t look too good and he’s never been good in the field, improvement notwithstanding. I think Dom Smith should get a longer look there rather than being completely put of place in LF
|
| 2:52 |
: I do like the Alonso DH thing they’ve been doing more of late
|
| 2:52 |
: Dom is clearly a better fielder at first
|
| 2:53 |
: Looks like it’s only happened twice this year and I happened to catch one of those games
|
| 2:53 |
: But that makes tons of sense
|
| 2:53 |
: It seems Chris Stratton might be a good reliever. He’s getting strikeouts and has an extreme spin rate on his curve it seems. Could he be a target for a contending team to add depth to a bullpen?
|
| 2:53 |
: Ye
|
| 2:53 |
: Yes*
|
| 2:53 |
: Definitely yes
|
| 2:53 |
: do you bring up Dylan Carlson for a quick trial because the season is broke for the Cardinals? No way they can play at peak levels with double headers constantly. Do you have data for how well teams perform the day after double headers/long streaks with no off days?
|
| 2:54 |
: I haven’t seen any that I feel good enough about to recommend to you
|
| 2:55 |
: But yes, it’s a serious impact.
|
| 2:55 |
: I think they absolutely should bring him up
|
| 2:55 |
: I think they will, at some point
|
| 2:55 |
: THey’ve already gotten their year
|
| 2:56 |
: Breaking COVID protocol is obviously *not good*, but Zach Plesac was having a sneaky good start to the season before that. Is the improvement real or just a flash in the pan?
|
| 2:56 |
: I lean flash in the pan but Jake Mailhot disagrees with me:
|
| 2:57 |
: Wander Wander Wander, everyone wants to see Wander. When do we and what can we expect? A Soto-like immediate impact of a Vladdy Jr. “he’ll get better, have patience” droll?
|
| 2:57 |
: Pretty sure we won’t be seeing Wander until next year
|
| 2:57 |
: And honestly, I have no idea which, but I hope it’s Soto-esque
|
| 2:57 |
: More Soto’s, please
|
| 2:58 |
: With Kyle Lewis looking like a legitimate center fielder and Kelenic likely debuting early next season, could you see Seattle investing in a corner outfielder to serve as their fourth outfielder/DH rather than leaning on guys like Fraley or Bishop? They have a serious lack of veterans on board moving forward, so there’s that.
|
| 2:58 |
: Yeah, that would make some sense
|
| 2:59 |
: An okay performer seems like something they could add without feeling like they’re goofing up the future
|
| 2:59 |
: And their outfield should be very fun next year regardless of what they do
|
| 2:59 |
: O’s fan here: Kevin Gausman’s success in SF is as real as Dylan Bundy’s in LA, no?
|
| 2:59 |
: I think so
|
| 3:00 |
: Which is to say, neither are quite as good as they’ve shown this year, but both are excellent nonetheless
|
| 3:01 |
: Looks like the projections sold Tatis a little short! What do you expect a contract extension to look like?
|
| 3:01 |
: I think it’s early to think about that, but I hope he goes the Lindor/Mookie route and waits a bit
|
| 3:01 |
: There’s more money that way and I don’t think a down year materially impacts his trajectory so why not get a little patient?
|
| 3:02 |
: What do you think of Statcast’s xwOBA? Seems to suggest that KC and BAL are top 10 teams so far this year. (Yes, I know the season is young)
|
| 3:02 |
: That’s probably not the right way to use it, b/c of stacking concerns and so on, but uh, they’re both hitting really well
|
| 3:02 |
: I think that xwOBA will be interesting this year
|
| 3:02 |
: B/c of the massive BABIP drop
|
| 3:02 |
: As I understand it, xwOBA gets back-fit to actually match the results on the field at year’s end
|
| 3:03 |
: But for example, pitchers have allowed a .303 wOBA this year
|
| 3:03 |
: Using Statcast’s definition of wOBA, which is fixed weight instead of floating to match OBP
|
| 3:03 |
: But xwOBA is .320
|
| 3:03 |
: So, the mismatch will need to be corrected out at some point
|
| 3:04 |
: I owned Fernando Tatis in a keep forever dynasty league. But I dropped him for some shiny new thing when he was striking out half the time in Single A. It didn’t take long for me to regret it, but now I can’t get away from him. Thanks for letting me get that off my chest.
|
| 3:04 |
: We’re all friends here, you can say what you need to
|
| 3:04 |
: And oooooowwwwwwww
|
| 3:04 |
: Kim moving back to the rotation. In other chats, people have said he has #2 upside. What do you see?
|
| 3:04 |
: I’m into it. I have not drafted any fantasy teams for the half-season, because I thought writing would be hectic enough
|
| 3:05 |
: But in my pre-season drafts (2) I was really high on Kim
|
| 3:05 |
: Ended up with him and C Mart in both
|
| 3:05 |
: This week only, pick one to sit: Voit, Dominic Smith, Pollock or Jesus Aguilar.
|
| 3:05 |
: Jesus, I think
|
| 3:06 |
: Charlie Blackmon is hitting .458
|
| 3:06 |
: And it’s somehow still not interesting!
|
| 3:06 |
: Coors plus BABIP is such a weird cocktail
|
| 3:06 |
: Which bat can I trade for
|
| 3:06 |
: I’m honestly kind of at a loss for an answer here
|
| 3:06 |
: I don’t think there are going to be all that many bats moving
|
| 3:08 |
: The A’s are killing it. How ironic would it be if Billy Beane finally wins that world series this year?
|
| 3:08 |
: My dog is a newly minted A’s fan ever since they allowed animal cutouts in the stands
|
| 3:08 |
: So I am also an A’s fan now, at least a bandwagon-y one
|
| 3:08 |
: and let me tell you, it’s a blast
|
| 3:09 |
: It would be peak ‘my stuff doesn’t work in the playoffs’ for it to work this year
|
| 3:09 |
: Coincidence that Stroman announces his opt out shortly after he accrues enough service time to reach FA or is it just peak Mets?
|
| 3:09 |
: Stroman is reportedly opting out, any idea if he will be still be a free agent after this season if that’s true?
|
| 3:09 |
: He will be a free agent after this year, according to several sources
|
| 3:09 |
: I kinda get it, he was barely going to get to pitch
|
| 3:10 |
: He might not have gotten to, period, even if he rehabbed the whole time
|
| 3:11 |
: Seems like a spot where you’re saying I can get money for rehabbing on one hand, but on the other hand give up that money to rehab on your own and away from a potential COVID hotbed
|
| 3:11 |
: I think it’s an entirely defensible position
|
| 3:11 |
: Seems like a bit of a loophole, but is there any reason Stroman wouldn’t have chosen to wait for enough service time for FA to opt out?
|
| 3:11 |
: Nah, he should be an FA, and I think that’s why he waited until now
|
| 3:11 |
: Which makes sense to me
|
| 3:11 |
: I generally agree that it serves the best players to wait on extensions, but San Diego has a long history (albeit different ownerships) of letting their best players get away. Let’s assume the current ownership group wants to lock Tatis in now and he is aggreable, what would you expect the terms to look like?
|
| 3:12 |
: Okay if they need to make him say yes, then you’re starting with the Acuna offer and tacking on money
|
| 3:12 |
: So that was 8/100 with two options I believe
|
| 3:13 |
: With the options being 17 million
|
| 3:13 |
: Uh, so maybe 8/130 with 25 million options?
|
| 3:14 |
: 8/150?
|
| 3:14 |
: It sounds high but Tatis has more service time
|
| 3:14 |
: I’m just spitballing though
|
| 3:14 |
: Btw to clarify, totally get it for Stroman and support him, but Jesus the Mets are just snake bitten. This type of stuff just doesn’t happen to anybody else.
|
| 3:14 |
: Yeah I mean the Mets-y part of it was the calf tear I think
|
| 3:14 |
: Because they’ve been really snakebitten by injuries
|
| 3:15 |
: But yeah, rough. Also rough for me, b/c I love to see him pitch
|
| 3:15 |
: But mostly for the Mets!
|
| 3:15 |
: should I trade jorge soler and plan for the future or try to make the playoffs this year?
|
| 3:16 |
: Go for it, I think, b/c you can trade him this offseason
|
| 3:16 |
: WIthout losing all that much value
|
| 3:16 |
: What on earth are the Diamondbacks doing with Varsho? Call him up, make a huge deal of it and then give him a grand total of… 10 PAs in his first week and a half?
|
| 3:16 |
: What are they doing overall? I don’t have the answers for you
|
| 3:17 |
: I truly don’t get it, though
|
| 3:17 |
: I like Carson Kelly but if that’s your stance, does Varsho even need to be up?
|
| 3:17 |
: Is James Karinchak a real deal top-5 RP in the Majors?
|
| 3:17 |
: Nah, but top 25, sure
|
| 3:18 |
: Okay everyone, I’m going to cut this chat a little short, because spotty wifi and my laptop are making this a little more of a chore to give you answers as in-depth as I aim for. Tune in next week, when we can answer questions like “Are the Rockies for real?” (maybe) and “Should deGrom go back to his old hair?” (I’m a contrarian yes vote)
|
| 3:19 |
: Have a great day, and enjoy baseball while we’ve got it
|
| 3:19 |
: Played any new games (board, video, or other) lately that you’d recommend?
|
| 3:19 |
: Wait!
|
| 3:19 |
: One last answer because I didn’t get nearly enough chance to talk about board games today
|
| 3:19 |
: Yes, I played Tesla vs. Edison Duel which I like as an easy two-player game, and I just got a playgroup together for Clank Legacy that I’m sooooo excited for
|
| 3:20 |
: Also finally got a chance to play Wingspan, it’s as good as advertised.
|
| 3:20 |
: And with that
|
| 3:20 |
: I’m out
|
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
Are there any baseball facilities better then Driveline?