Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/17/20

August 17, 2020

1:58	Ben Clemens: What the heck, let’s get started a little early.

1:58	Ben Clemens: There are some awesome questions in the queue and I’m excited to answer them, so I couldn’t just keep waiting here not saying something.

1:58	Ben Clemens: Before we begin, a quick plug for the Trade Value Series, which is going up on the site this week

1:59	Ben Clemens: Craig spent a ton of time working this up, checking it with industry sources and with us, re-ordering, sending the new list around, etc. etc. It’s a huge project but a really fun one

2:00	Ben Clemens: So take some time to read it, it’s really cool

2:00	Ben Clemens: With that, onto the questions

2:00	RD: Is Wander Franco’s MILB GB% a legitimate concern regarding his prospects for MLB success? We’ve seen how a low launch angle has affected Vlad Jr. so far. Both have similar ground ball rates in the minors but is there any reason to think Wander can avoid a similar struggle?

2:00	Ben Clemens: Groundball rates are a lot easier to take when you run like Wander Franco

2:01	Ben Clemens: Like, one of the biggest problems with Vlad’s grounders is that he doesn’t turn enough of them into hits

2:02	Ben Clemens: Even then, they weren’t the end of the world — he has a career .269 babip on grounders, which is somehow higher htan league average

2:02	Ben Clemens: I would say it’s a concern, but not a huge one.

2:02	Russ: In a dynasty, keep forever league, would you rather have Correa/Bregman or Tatis Jr./Muncy?

2:03	Ben Clemens: This is really close. I think I’d take the Bregman/Correa side but I might just be too low on Tatis

2:03	Ben Clemens: I think I was the low responder to Craig when we were discussing where Tatis should go (which, spoiler, is pretty high)

2:03	Guest: What is your take on the orioles? How much of their improvement (particularly on offense) is real, and how much is fluky? Seems like the statcast numbers have them in a middle-ish range, but they, um, hit a lot of line drives?

2:03	Ben Clemens: I think it’s mostly fluky, sadly

2:04	Ben Clemens: I semi buy Nunez, do buy Alberto, and think Santander is good

2:04	Ben Clemens: Alberto probably will just always be a line drive hitter

2:05	Ben Clemens: But yeah, Niko Goodrum smashed a ton of line drives for a little bit last year too

2:05	Ben Clemens: Line drives are just reallllly unstable

2:05	Andre: Hi Ben…any thoughts on Mize and Skubal? Im seeing lots of things written that the difference between the two might not be as much as originally thought. Is Skubal only a 70 fastball and that’s it?

2:06	Ben Clemens: I’m probably not the right person to ask on this, but I like Mize a good bit more

2:06	Ben Clemens: I’m just skeptical of fastball-only guys. I think Skubal’s fastball could be the rare one that works well enough that it’s fine

2:06	Ben Clemens: But you have to apply some discounting to that

2:07	Ben Clemens: He’s overpowering minor leaguers but it’s really hard to succeed in the majors as a mostly-heater guy

2:07	Ben Clemens: You can, but plenty of people try and fail

2:07	Brad: What is actually happening at those “alternate sites”?

2:07	Ben Clemens: As far as I understand, it’s essentially extended spring training

2:07	Ben Clemens: Live BP, drills of various types, just generally trying to teach things for the prospects and stay in game shape for the veterans

2:07	Appa Yip Yip: Teoscar Hernandez chasing the covered .300 obp .700 slg ratio

2:07	Appa Yip Yip: Corollary to that, is Good Teoscar here to stay?

2:08	Ben Clemens: I mean…. no?

2:08	Ben Clemens: But hes’ the kind of guy who is prone to hot streaks

2:08	Ben Clemens: So much of his value comes from slug that he naturally gets it in big chunks

2:09	Ben Clemens: He’s hitting the ball even harder this year and also swinging really aggressively, kind of leaning into the Teoscar-ness of it all

2:10	Ben Clemens: If you think of him as a nice 4th outfielder who plays up against lefties I don’t think you’ll go wrong

2:10	Ben Clemens: But I don’t think there’s a 150 wRC+ bat hiding in there

2:10	Al Avila: Am I actually trying to make the playoffs or just giving Tigers fans false hope?

2:11	Ben Clemens: Casey Mize & Tarik Skubal. What to expect?

2:11	Ben Clemens: Skubal has a nasty fastball, as profiled above

2:12	Ben Clemens: Mize is polished, throws a four-pitch mix, has an awesome splitter and a great cutter/slider thing

2:12	Ben Clemens: I love that the Tigers are doing this.

2:12	Ben Clemens: It makes a TON of sense

2:13	Ben Clemens: Giving up the back end years on pitchers has rarely come back to haunt teams, and this is a year the Tigers have their best shot at making the playoffs

2:13	Ben Clemens: So go for it!

2:13	YardGoat: How are you doing on this Trade Value Monday Ben? Has your dog’s cardboard cutout made a TV appearance yet?

2:13	Ben Clemens: Not yet! Although I haven’t watched every A’s game of late, I’m on a working vacation which means I’ve been watching less baseball at night after writing all day

2:13	Billy Beane: Hey Ben, you’re in SF, right? Have you had pupusas from Panchita’s #2?

2:14	Ben Clemens: I haven’t but now it’s on the list. I love pupusas

2:14	Rick: So delaying a few games because of COVID is not ideal, but from an on-field perspective, is there any team that benefits more from playing some 7-inning doubleheaders than the Reds (currently 1st in fWAR in team starting pitching, 25th in fWAR in team bullpen pitching)?

2:14	YardGoat: If the Reds have a breakout of positives come back, does that more or less make it impossible to reach 60 games for all the NL Central teams? Seems like a really bad scenario having two teams in the same division with outbreaks

2:14	Ben Clemens: Two questions here, both of which are interesting

2:14	Ben Clemens: I think the Phillies actually benefit more, and they have a boatload of doubleheaders

2:14	Ben Clemens: But don’t forget, a lot of those second games are going to be bullpen games

2:15	Ben Clemens: And, uh

2:15	Ben Clemens: As to YardGoat’s question, yeah it’s really rough.

2:15	Ben Clemens: If they miss 10 games, a lot of the Central will end up short, and there’s no way to avoid it

2:15	Ryan: Kevin Pillar to the Indians: make sense?

2:16	Ben Clemens: I think so? Their outfield is just ughhhhh

2:16	Defenestrater: Article idea: go through the math on whether to save the closer for the 10th in a tie game (since that inning starts off as higher leverage). I assume the answer is no, but it is good to check these things.

2:16	Ben Clemens: I have some stuff in the queue on home field advantage and on pitching to the corners, but after that perhaps

2:16	Ben Clemens: It would be interesting to see the change with the new rules for sure

2:16	Human Rain Delay: Ootp brewers update please?

2:17	Ben Clemens: Bouncing between 1 and 2 games back of the Pirates, in WC2 at the moment

2:17	Ben Clemens: Yelich is back next week

2:17	Ben Clemens: Seems like we handled it okay

2:17

Giodude: If two players with identical bat speed make identical contact with a pitch, but one player is 100 pounds heavier than the other, will the heavier player’s batted ball go significantly further? I am trying to understand if, when announcers say “XYZ player is so strong he can go the opposite way with that pitch”, they really just mean “XYZ player has such good bat speed”.

2:17	Ben Clemens: It’s important to note that I’m not a physicist, so you know, don’t take this as gospel

2:18	Ben Clemens: But from my understanding, it matters in a technical sense, but hte magnitude is so small as to be meaningless

2:18	Ben Clemens: The bat’s weight matters

2:18	Ben Clemens: Because basically you’re transferring the bat’s momentum to the ball

2:19	Ben Clemens: But that’s the key weight, not the player’s

2:19	Ben Clemens: Any actual physicists, please let me know what I’m wrong about

2:20

Mike Troutrzemski: re: the Trade Value series, are there good pieces to read on choosing which interest rate to use for contract NPV calculations? I see numbers ranging from 4% to 8% in past FanGraphs articles, but sadly for most of them the justification for the interest rate is just a dead link to an external site.

2:20	Ben Clemens: Haha there absolutely is not, and it’s something I’ve struggled with quite a bit when I do NPV stuff

2:20	Ben Clemens: I tend to use BBB corporate bond yields as the appropriate team discount rate

2:20	Ben Clemens: Because that seems to most closely approximate their cost of funds

2:21	Ben Clemens: And then when I’m looking at what a player’s cost of deferral is, I kinda freelance. Usually something like t-bills + 100?

2:21	Ben Clemens: Because I assume these guys would be pretty risk-averse with investments when they have life-changing money

2:21	GSon: What’s a “cutter/slider” thing?

2:21	Ben Clemens: I basically disagree with the bright-line classification of breaking balls

2:21	Ben Clemens: Cutters and sliders are really hard to differentiate depending on how hard they’re thrown

2:22	Ben Clemens: Hard pitches that break glove-side and have either a little bit of ride or a little bit of drop can be cutters or sliders depending on what the pitcher calls it

2:22	Ben Clemens: I think of cutter/slider/curveball as basically just a spectrum of glove-breaking pitches at various velocities

2:22	GSon: Coefficient of restitution.. surface area of the contact.. (btw.. I am a physicist)..

2:23	Ben Clemens: Bam, real physicist appears

2:23	Ben Clemens: So yeah, the bat itself is very important

2:23

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Delving into the AL WAR leader Brandon Lowe’s stats this year, I was surprised at how not-outlier-y the usual overperformance metrics like BABIP and HR/FB are, even with some clear overperformance. K%, which stabilizes quickly, is down from 34.6% to 24.7%. Are you a believer? Is this TB’s best position player over Meadows?

2:23	Ben Clemens: I think I’m a believer?

2:24	Ben Clemens: I mean, not that he’s a 200 wRC+ hitter

2:24	Ben Clemens: But like you said, it’s not THAT fluky

2:25	Ben Clemens: I like that he’s just started swinging less, which always looked like a good adjustment for a guy like him with some whiff issues but with good natural power

2:25	Ben Clemens: He’s like a next-level Paul DeJong in that if you can just swing less often

2:25	Ben Clemens: Even at strikes

2:25	Ben Clemens: Good things will happen

2:25	Ben Clemens: I would say he’s Tampa’s best hitter unless you’re really high on Adames

2:26	John S.: What do the marlins do at the deadline? Buy, Sell, Hold?

2:26	Ben Clemens: I think they’re likely to hold

2:26	Ben Clemens: What are they really trading?

2:27	Ben Clemens: There’s not a ton on that team that they want to trade and that other teams want to buy

2:27	Ben Clemens: Ryne Stanek or something?

2:27	Glenn Spankman: Is Robbie Grossman’s newly found pop forreal?

2:27	Ben Clemens: Let’s be cautious and say probably not

2:27	Ben Clemens: But I haven’t looked into it enough

2:27	Joshua: Would Adam Eaton be a decent trade candidate for Cleveland or San Diego, assuming the Nats are not in the playoff hunt by the deadline? And if so, what type of return could he possible garner? Thanks.

2:27	Joshua: As a fun exercise, could you come up with a trade involving the Nats that makes sense for both the Nats and the other team involved? Thanks.

2:27	Ben Clemens: Nats trades are hard! They have 75 second basemen

2:27	Ben Clemens: But they’re playing their prospect second baseman instead

2:28	Ben Clemens: And I’m fairly certain that no one values old second basemen as highly as the Nats, or they wouldn’t have ended up with all of them

2:28	Ben Clemens: So those are the guys they should try to get rid of, it’s where they have surpluse

2:28	Ben Clemens: Surplus*

2:29	GSon: jason kipnis says hello from the northside..

2:29	Ben Clemens: Lol

2:29	Ben Clemens: Okay so, what about Asdrubal Cabrera to a team that needs second base help?

2:30	Ben Clemens: Kendrick probably can’t handle that fulltime and Castro is hurt

2:30	Ben Clemens: I’ll come back to this, thinking about it in the background

2:30	Lorenzo: Too soon to argue that Juan Soto is THE best hitter on the planet? It seems inevitable.

2:30	Ben Clemens: Probably too soon. But it’ll happen at some point. He keeps getting better and Trout will eventually decline

2:30	Guest: Being a Red Sox fan, I’m starting to look forward to next year’s draft. But I’m reading rumors about the draft seeding for next next year not following this year’s win %. What scheme do you think makes sense for draft seeding after 1/3 of a season? Combine 2019 & 2020? Lottery? Other?

2:30	Ben Clemens: I think they should just use 2020

2:30	Ben Clemens: It’s every bit as arbitrary as anything else

2:31	Ben Clemens: I actually think they should redo the whole system but assuming they’re keeping the whole last place gets the first pick plan in general

2:31	Ben Clemens: Why should this year be any different?

2:31	Chris: How do the Padres replace Pham?

2:32	Ben Clemens: Yeah, this one stings

2:32	Ben Clemens: We think they’ll use a lot of Profar in the outfield since Cronenworth has hit so well that he’s locked second base up for the future (it seems)

2:32	Ben Clemens: But like, ew

2:33	Ben Clemens: Trading every single one of their surplus outfielders looked awesome in the offseason but it stung them here

2:33	Ben Clemens: I guess I’d run with Profar for now and see what teams drop out of the race. The Nats might trade Eaton if they go 3-7 or 2-8 in the next 10 games or whatever

2:34	Guest: Any chance we see more of Olivares now that Pham is injured?

2:34	Ben Clemens: Yes, definite higher chance. If Profar keeps scuffling and isn’t a transcendent outfield defender (and I mean, he’s probably not), they have to try something

2:34	Ben Clemens: Pham is basically out the rest of the year. Can’t just be passive

2:34	scuffy mcgee: Kris Bryant looks over matched. How concerned are you about his weak start

2:34	Ben Clemens: I’m not, at least not yet

2:36	Ben Clemens: He’s not hitting enough line drives, and he’s not swinging enough

2:37	Ben Clemens: But it’s a small sample and I want to see more before I really think anything

2:37	Joshua: So, if the Nats do go 3-7 or so during the next 10 games and decide to deal Eaton to the Pham-less Padres, what could that deal potentially look like?

2:37	Ben Clemens: Presumably a 40/45 kind of prospect

2:37	Ben Clemens: I think it’d be funny for them to trade Anderson Espinoza

2:37	Ben Clemens: After he was so hyped and then so injured

2:37	Guest: Would you rather have the older guy with two years of control left (arb) or the younger guy with five years left? Assume similar projected WAR per year.

2:38	Ben Clemens: If it’s similar per year, I’ll take the extra years

2:38	Ben Clemens: If it’s similar total value, I think I’m in the minority among baseball front office views but I’d take the older guy

2:38	Guest: Why are the OOTP pirates so much better than the real life pirates? Ownership?

2:38	Ben Clemens: Every single player had a 95th percentile outcome

2:38	Ben Clemens: And then they made a really good trade for Marcus Semien at the deadline

2:39	Ben Clemens: But if the actual Pirates played like the OOTP Pirates I’d like their odds of a playoff run

2:39	Ben Clemens: I think they have the potential for good pitching (which has happened in OOTP)

2:40	Ben Clemens: But they need all the replacement-ish hitters to hit for the whole package to work, or for Bell and Reynolds and Frazier to take steps forward

2:40	Mike Hawk: Ben, I live on Cole and Parnassus and frequent the Kezar, so you’re obliged to answer my question…Mize and Skubel, Skubel and Mize…the REAL gem here is Paredes getting the call up. The kid can hit for 60 power. What do you make of his chances to find ABs?

2:40	Ben Clemens: Oh yeah he’s a big deal too

2:40	Ben Clemens: I think I favor Mize of the three but yes, he’s great

2:40	Ben Clemens: I think his chances of getting AB’s are really good

2:40	Ben Clemens: You don’t call him up and not give him a bunch of AB’s

2:40	Ben Clemens: If you did that, you’d be starting his service time clock without helping his development

2:40

bighen: What was the hype around Amed Rosario and what has changed? He had horrible plate discipline when he came up, some bad lower body mechanics when he came up etc. and he still has those things. Is it just a matter of not being able to improve or has he picked up some bad habits along the way? I realize he’s played ~15 games this season but he’s borderline unplayable

2:40	Ben Clemens: I’m a long-time Amed hype man

2:41	Ben Clemens: So let’s see if I can distill my thoughts about him into a few sentences

2:41	Ben Clemens: I thought that his frame and his athleticism meant that he’d iron out the kinks on defense

2:42	Ben Clemens: And that he’d be floored at okay, with upside to excellent if he could bulk up and hit for power

2:42	Ben Clemens: He never had a great approach, but he was just athletic enough that you kind of hoped it still worked

2:42	Ben Clemens: It, uh, it hasn’t quite yet

2:43	Ben Clemens: It’s too early to say anything has changed

2:43	Ben Clemens: the second half of 2019 was all pretty good, for example

2:43	Ben Clemens: But it’s very frustrating that the stuff he isn’t improving at is so easy to see

2:43	Verdugo: Bradley is gone, Who knows what happens to Benny, Devers has been awful.. Am I the future of Bean Town?

2:43	Ben Clemens: Haha nah man, it’s Devers

2:43	Ben Clemens: People can be terrible and still have a great outlook

2:44	Ben Clemens: Verdugo is a nice player, but the future is definitely still Devers/Bogaerts there as far as I’m concerned

2:44	Jorge Mateo: You mean I won’t get a real shot with Pham out?

2:45	Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical but hey, he already has 8 PA!

2:45	Ben Clemens: If Almonte is bad and they aren’t ready to call Trammell up, why not?

2:45	2-D: I’m re-evaluating the Rockies. 29th best at striking hitters out, have the second lowest HR/FB%, and Daniel Bard is their best bullpen option. The good times won’t last.

2:45	Ben Clemens: It doesn’t feel great

2:46	Ben Clemens: I think they’re still above 50% to make the playoffs, but the easy schedule at the start and hard schedule thereafter is a recpie for this feeling

2:46	Ben Clemens: They still have a lot of clashes with the Dodgers and yikes

2:46

Factory of Sadness: Home teams are almost exactly .500 so far this season without crowds (not that HFA was huge beforehand), so the playoff round of 16 is going to be a crapshoot. Are you looking forward to the first 27-29 World Series champion, and who has a plausible chance of doing it among the .500-ish logjam?

2:46	Ben Clemens: I was actually doing some digging into HFA right before this chat started

2:47	Ben Clemens: Expect something on it toward the end of the week

2:47	Ben Clemens: Suffice it to say it’s still there this year

2:47	Ben Clemens: But that yeah, it’s not gonna matter much in a three-game series

2:47	Ben Clemens: Not that it ever really has in a series that short

2:48	Jonesy: How for real is Ian Happ’s breakout? Obviously he won’t sustain this, but 120 wRC+ going forward maybe?

2:48	Ben Clemens: I’m very confused about what’s going on with Happ

2:49	Ben Clemens: If he were walking a Happ-y amount of the time, this would just look like a normal hot streak

2:49	Ben Clemens: Instead of ‘hey has he changed something?’

2:49	Ben Clemens: But basically he’s swinging less and pitchers still think he’s crazy free swinging Happ from last year

2:50	Ben Clemens: He has one of the lowest zone rates in baseball according to our stats

2:50	Ben Clemens: And is only swinging 35% of the time

2:50	Ben Clemens: It’s a great combination

2:50	Ben Clemens: I want to see what happens when pitchers start attacking him, but I’m cautiously optimistic

2:50	Joshua: Best batting stance ever is……..?

2:50	Ben Clemens: It’s Gary Sheffield

2:50	Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s particularly close

2:51	Dominic Smith: How long do i have to keep hitting before I’m the starting 1b? Alonso is a perfect DH in a world without Cano

2:51	Ben Clemens: The Mets kind of leaned into it, or at least foreshadowed that they would, for a few games last week

2:51	Ben Clemens: And I was extremely into it

2:51	Ben Clemens: I don’t know why they didn’t follow through. Alonso really IS sketchy on defense

2:51	GSon: A Padre’s deal appear to have two items to consider. 1.) An SP that improves/lenghtens their staff is more critical than any other acquisition and 2.) an OF’er, preferably a LHH. How about a trade of Clevinger & Naquin to the padres for Campusano, Cole Wilcox and Jeisson Rosario?

2:52	Ben Clemens: Aside from having to look up Jeisson Rosario, I was immediately intrigued by this deal

2:52	Ben Clemens: The Indians might be extremely motivated to deal Clevinger

2:54	Ben Clemens: Wilcox as a PTBNL and Campusano are probably enough of a headliner for two years of Clevinger

2:54	Ben Clemens: 2+ rather

2:54	Ben Clemens: So I guess? I don’t think the Indians would be willing to part with Naquin though which makes the whole thing sketchy

2:54	Ben Clemens: They BADLY need outfield depth, particularly lefty outfield depth, too

2:54	Julio Franco: My batting stance would beg to differ

2:55	Ben Clemens: Oh haha disagree. I spent so much of my youth emulating Sheffield’s

2:55	Ben Clemens: As a Cardinals fan living in Tennessee, no less

2:55	Ben Clemens: It was just so cool

2:55	Lorenzo: Best batting stance ever is Rickey Henderson for me because he literally shrunk the strike zone. His OBP paved the way to one of the most unique HOF careers.

2:55	Ben Clemens: That’s another really cool one, though Rickey’s prime didn’t overlap with my youth which disqualifies him for me

2:55	Ben Clemens: It has to be one that I imitated

2:55	Ben Clemens: But yeah, his is cool for sure

2:55	Matt: Can you recall a team (players, not execs) being so outwardly mad at a fellow player as the Cleveland Baseball Team are at the pitchers?

2:55	Siri: When do we see plesac and clevinger pitch again?

2:56	Ben Clemens: I really cannot

2:56	Ben Clemens: That Passan article was eye-opening

2:57	Ben Clemens: It wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t pitch before September

2:57	Ben Clemens: And it wouldn’t completely floor me if they didn’t pitch again this year

2:57	Nick: Sonny Gray: odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young this year?

2:59	Ben Clemens: I think that it’s still deGrom unless he misses his next turn

2:59	Ben Clemens: And then after that I have Darvish a bit ahead of Gray

2:59	Ben Clemens: But quite close btw. Darvish and Gray

2:59	Ben Clemens: deGrom is just a cut above if he’s healthy

2:59	Ben Clemens: And it’s not like he’s started slowly or anything

2:59	Greg: If Clevinger and Plesac lose a year of service time, are we going to see a grievance filed?

2:59	Ben Clemens: This is quite interesting actually

3:00	Ben Clemens: I think they’d probably try to file a grievance

3:00	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure the PA would be interested in it

3:01	Ben Clemens: I mean, half the team was saying they wouldn’t play if these guys did

3:01	Ben Clemens: (probably a slight exaggeration on my part, to be clear)

3:01	Ben Clemens: Kris Bryant’s grievance was a cause celebre with the MLBPA because everyone on the player side hates that teams manipulate playing time to cost players money

3:02	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure they’d be so in for getting players who willfully lied to and endangered their teammates a little extra dough

3:02	Greg: If the PA fails to file a grievance, will we see an unfair labor charge filed by Clevinger and Plesac with the NLRB against the PA for breaching its duty of fair representation?

3:02	Ben Clemens: So, definitely not a lawyer

3:02	Ben Clemens: Maybe? BUt I’m not sure, it’s not really clear to me that this is being done for service time manipulation

3:03	Ben Clemens: I think the front office would prefer, all things being equal, having those guys in the rotation

3:03	viceroy: Expected playing time for the tigers prospects called up? Will they slot in the rotation or bullpen

3:03	Ben Clemens: They’re slated to start tomorrow and Wednesday

3:03	Ben Clemens: So just regular rotation pieces it looks like

3:03	sam: If the Marlins or Cardinals manage to only play about 45-50 games are they still qualified to make the playoffs, winning % notwithstanding? What’s the cutoff there?

3:03	Ben Clemens: I think the cutoff is probably around 50 games for me

3:03	Ben Clemens: But I think winning percentage is a fine way to determine it

3:04	Ben Clemens: Just, below 50 games it’s going to feel reallllly weird

3:04	Ben Clemens: It looks incredibly unlikely that anyone will finish that low, so I don’t see it being an issue

3:04	Kretin: Do the Angels need a change in the Front Office?

3:04	Ben Clemens: Maybe. They seem to need an ownership change, but taht’s obviously tough

3:05	Ben Clemens: But when Arte Moreno is firing scouts left and right to save money and reportedly on the front lines of every single time where owners try to cut costs in any way possible

3:05	Ben Clemens: It’s pretty easy to believe that their front office is under-staffed and under-funded

3:05	Ben Clemens: Soooooo

3:05	nick: If you are the Indians you have to be concerned that the moment you promote them they would just opt out which would allow them to get their service time.

3:05	Ben Clemens: I don’t think that’s how it works, right?

3:05	Ben Clemens: If you’re not a high-risk individual you can’t get service time if you opt out

3:05	Ben Clemens: Unless I misunderstood how that works

3:05	Clark: Pick one as more likely to make the playoffs: Tigers or Red Sox?

3:05	Ben Clemens: Tigers

3:05	Ben Clemens: THey’re adding talent and the Red Sox will likely look to dela

3:05	Ben Clemens: That rotation, woof

3:06	Ben Clemens: And I’m the idiot who picked the Sox to make the playoffs

3:06	nick: Why is MLB not scheduling double headers now so that each team has a few games in hand in the event of later being shut down.

3:06	Ben Clemens: I don’t hate this idea — backload days off into September. Teams would probably be into it too because they get rest days if not

3:06	Ben Clemens: The Cardinals asked for more DH’s and more rest days, for example

3:06	Appa Yip Yip: As a baseball fan who dives deep into numbers and is constantly looking stuff up during games I’m very excited to watch the basketball playoffs where I understand nothing (wat is pick am roll? Don’t care!) And just watch tall men do absurd things.

3:06	Ben Clemens: Oh I’m 100% the same way

3:06	Ben Clemens: I have very strong and irrational opinions about basketball

3:07	Ben Clemens: I hate the Rockets, I love the Nuggets

3:07	Ben Clemens: Just from watching a few of their games

3:07	Ben Clemens: It’s so fun to watch something and not have to analyze

3:07	Logan: I made a bet with a friend that the Red Sox would make the playoffs at least once in the next three years. This year is looking bad for me. Should I be worried about the next two as well?

3:07	Ben Clemens: I continue to believe they’ll make the playoffs whenever they decide they’re going to field a full rotation

3:07	Ben Clemens: They clearly weren’t trying this year

3:08	Ben Clemens: I think I like your side but losing 1/3 of your outs is obviously not ideal

3:08	Clark: Re: Tigers vs. Red Sox: Are Mize and Skubal better rotation options than anyone in the Red Sox rotation right?

3:08	Benny: More impactful – Mize or Skubal?

3:08	Ben Clemens: I think so?

3:08	Ben Clemens: I favor Mize over Skubal but it’s close

3:08	Prof: What did you study in college, and was it helpful given what ended up being your career path? Was there anything in particular you wish you had spent more / less time on?

3:08	Ben Clemens: Oh this is a fun question

3:08	Ben Clemens: So I was initially an Econ/Religion double major

3:08	Ben Clemens: Then I dropped religion and picked up at various times math and psychology

3:08	Ben Clemens: Both of which I ended up not adding

3:09	Ben Clemens: Ended up Econ, with enough credits to minor in psych or math

3:09	Ben Clemens: But minoring was a pain so I didn’t

3:09	Ben Clemens: I think the most useful stuff I learned in college was a few math classes that did a good job making me think more logically and then game and auction theory classes in econ

3:09	Ben Clemens: I learned almost none of the actual skills I use on the job from college but I leanred a ton about how to think

3:09	No name: It’s not irrational to hate the Rockets. It’s just difficult to explain and articulate to people who don’t understand.

3:09	Ben Clemens: Yeah I cannot articulate it very well at all

3:10	Ben Clemens: Harden is incredible

3:10	Ben Clemens: And I just

3:10	Ben Clemens: bah

3:10	Ben Clemens: I guess it’s easy to articulate why I don’t like Westbrook

3:10	Ben Clemens: but yeah

3:10	Nolan: How many years back into history do you have to go to find a starting rotation worse than the Red Sox?

3:10	Ben Clemens: Weirdly this year’s Giants might be worse

3:11	Ben Clemens: Particularly after they inevitably trade Gausman

3:12	Ben Clemens: But if you won’t give me that, I still think last year’s Orioles were worse

3:12	Guest: Ohtani or Bohm ROS?

3:12	Ben Clemens: Ohtani but I’m not all that sure. I wonder if they shut him down if they fall out of the race

3:12	Ben Clemens: WHich is a huge risk

3:12	Ben Clemens: WIthout that it’d be easy Ohtani for me though

3:12	Prof: Religion?? Never would’ve guessed! Would be fascinating to talk to our 18-year-old selves

3:12	Ben Clemens: Yeah I was just curious (I grew up unitarian universalist which does a good job making you curious about other religions) but the major was just a real pain

3:13	Chris: Do you see the Phillies making a move for a CF now with Haseley and Quinn out

3:13	Ben Clemens: I think they kind of have to

3:13	Ben Clemens: I haven’t really figured out who that would be

3:13	Ben Clemens: But PIllar maybe?

3:13	Guest: What is an optimal trade deadline strategy for teams not the playoffs this season but prob not in 21 or even 22 ?

3:13	Ben Clemens: I’m guessing this means teams with a shot htis year but no shot next year

3:14	Ben Clemens: Because that’s a really interesting question

3:14	Ben Clemens: I think you stand pat, as lame as that sounds

3:14	Ben Clemens: The deadline is going to be a seller’s market this year I think

3:14	Ben Clemens: Or potentially just a completely nonexistent market if buyers aren’t willing to pay up

3:14	Trent: On a scale of Donovan Solano to Dylan Bundy, how real is Gausman’s improvement this year?

3:14	Ben Clemens: It’s in the middle, but here’s the thing

3:15	Ben Clemens: I think Gausman was already better than either of those guys

3:15	Ben Clemens: So he needs less of the improvement to be real

3:15	Ben Clemens: I think he’s a legit 2/3 kind of pitcher at this point

3:15	Chris: Follow up to that what do you figure the price for Yaz would be

3:15	Ben Clemens: I think it would be quite high, and I doubt anyone is paying it

3:16	Ben Clemens: If I’m the Giants, I’d be asking for someone who would hurt

3:16	Ben Clemens: Spencer Howard, maybe, or Bohm, though I think BOhm might be light?

3:16	Ben Clemens: I’ve bought in on Yaz

3:16	Ben Clemens: Not that he’s Mike Trout, but that he’s a plus-bat guy who can handle center who is basically free

3:16	Ben Clemens: He’ll never hit free agency

3:16	Ben Clemens: I think that’s actually true, I doubt he still is active when he reaches free agency

3:17	Greene: Better odds that Blackmon hits over .400 or someone (who qualifies for the batting title) hits under .140?

3:18	Ben Clemens: I think it’s hits under .140

3:18	Ben Clemens: Particularly because the guys doing it right now will keep getting playing time

3:18	Ben Clemens: (Evan White, Eugenio Suarez, Gary Sanchez)

3:18	brad: Random thought sort of related to Charlie Blackmon, what’s the longest stretch of PAs a player has maintained a .500 average over? Any idea?

3:18	Ben Clemens: Jay looked into various forms of this last week, I believe:

3:19	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/charlie-blackmon-is-chasing-500-for-now/

3:19	Roger: What is more likely: one of Betts or Tatis wins the NL MVP? Anyone else in the NL wins the NL MVP?

3:19	Ben Clemens: THe first by far

3:19	Ben Clemens: SO much of the season has already happened

3:19	Ben Clemens: And Betts was probably already a front-runner before the season

3:19

GSon: If social distancing and mask wearing (PPE) protocols were followed (and the so claimed by Plesac and Clevinger), then there was no endangerment. The demotion to Lake Country (The Alternate Training site for the Indians) would be only punishment with the collateral loss of service time and it’s fiscal punishment.. The MLBPA would clearly want that to NOT happen…

3:19	Ben Clemens: I’m not party to all the exact details

3:19	Ben Clemens: But the Indians have said, per Passan, that both Clevinger and Plesac were caught in various lies

3:20	Ben Clemens: Which lowers my ability to believe the rest of what they said significantly

3:20	Ben Clemens: And I mean, ‘no endangerment’ is clearly not right

3:20	Ben Clemens: I’m going to be socially isolating when I get back to SF (I’m in southern California right now)

3:20	Ben Clemens: Because people out and about here wear masks a lot less frequently than they do in the city

3:20	Ben Clemens: I’m doing my part, but that’s not zero risk, you know?

3:20	Hector: Does David Fletcher have a few 4.5+ WAR seasons in his career?

3:20	Ben Clemens: Gosh I hope so

3:20	Ben Clemens: David Fletcher is so fun

3:20	Ben Clemens: It’s just great for baseball that he exists

3:21	AFan: One would think that that the Indians might be forced to trade one or both of Clevinger/Plesac, which might bring them decent pieces, in the OF, for example, but it would surely decimate their starting pitching edge for years. Thoughts ?

3:21	Ben Clemens: I think that they will end up trading Clevinger, to be honest

3:21	Ben Clemens: He’s closer to free agency so more expensive

3:22	Ben Clemens: And yeah, it’s going to push back their competitive window

3:22	Ben Clemens: But they seem like a team who loves pushing back their competitive window

3:22	Ben Clemens: So it’s hardly a stretch

3:22	Bambino: What does it say about a team who trades for either of the indian pitchers who broke protocol?

3:22	Ben Clemens: You can take the optimistic side and say it shows they think their locker room has the right leaders to control them

3:22	Ben Clemens: Challenge trades like that happen from time to time

3:23	Ben Clemens: I think that’s absolutely what hte team will say

3:23	Ben Clemens: But if they don’t clear it with the veterans in the locker room first, uh, it might be messy

3:23	brad: That piece looks at most hits to start the season, I’m more curious about how long over any stretch .500 has happened, but not sure how to tease the info out of leaderboards.

3:23	Ben Clemens: Oh I see

3:23	Ben Clemens: Huh

3:23	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure of a way to do that either, unfortunately, without doing a TON of manual work

3:23	Ben Clemens: Like, downloading every line ever a ton of work

3:23	Hector: Where would you set the over/under on career innings pitched in Shohei Ohtani’s future?

3:23	Ben Clemens: Ugh

3:23	Ben Clemens: Boooooo

3:23	Ben Clemens: But this is a good question, to be clear

3:23	Ben Clemens: Just a sad one

3:23	Ben Clemens: I think it’s honestly like 200

3:24	Ben Clemens: Because I thinkt here’s a real chance that it’s 0

3:24	Ben Clemens: And so you have to get very few other scenarios to find a breakeven line

3:24	Ben Clemens: Hope I’m wrong

3:24	Justin: Do you think the Red Sox will look to sell Brandon Workman and/or JD Martinez at the deadline?

3:24	Ben Clemens: Yes, and I think they find a taker for Workman but not JD

3:24	Joe: Jeff Passan wrote today that the time between balls in play has gone up by nearly 40 real time seconds since 2011. That legitimately does seem like a problem. How can baseball fix this? Is it even possible?

3:25	Ben Clemens: It’s a really hard thing to fix, and I wouldn’t ocnsider myself the best qualified person to ask about it

3:25	Ben Clemens: But I’ve always liked the idea of a deader ball but a further back mound

3:25	Ben Clemens: NO idea if that would work

3:25	Ben Clemens: But I’d like to see a lot more thought given to deadening the ball at the same time you take something major away from pitchers

3:25	Gunther Centralperk: Pull out your crystal ball: what does Kershaw re-sign for in winter 2021?

3:25	Ben Clemens: 3/52 with incentives

3:26	Ben Clemens: (that was actually out of my arbitrary guess bag, but that’s close, right?)

3:26	Chris: When will Cleveland trade for a major league outfielder?

3:26	Ben Clemens: Hey they traded for Oscar Mercado, Puig, and Delino DeShields in the past three years

3:26	Ben Clemens: Oh, only Puig counts?

3:26	Ben Clemens: Then I’ll say 2021

3:26	Hector: Does Kershaw actually sign anywhere after his current deal? I could see him retiring instead.

3:27	Ben Clemens: I think he stays in LA

3:27	Ben Clemens: For a few more years at least

3:27	Ben Clemens: He’s younger than you think, and he’s still great

3:27	Ben Clemens: He does seem like the type who might walk away still on top

3:27	Ben Clemens: But I think he also really badly wants to win more stuff

3:27	Justin: Who says no to this trade: Tigers receive: Franklin Barreto A’s receive: Jonathan Schoop and INTL signing money

3:28	Ben Clemens: I think the Tigers would say no

3:28	Ben Clemens: But I do think it’s not super far off

3:28	Ben Clemens: If the Tigers were out of the hunt and not bringing up their prospects they might snap it off and just see what htey have in Barreto

3:28	Ben Clemens: But replacement level is realllllly low at second base for them right now

3:29	Ben Clemens: It’s Harold Castro if it’s not Schoop

3:29	Ben Clemens: And they’re clearly trying to make the playoffs this year

3:29	Ben Clemens: So I dunno if they can do that and then also just plug Barreto into their starting lineup

3:30	Ben Clemens: You’re not wrong on the valuation, though, just the TIgers’ mindset, in my eyes

3:30	Chris: Start mize on Wednesday?

3:30	Ben Clemens: For sure

3:30	Appa Yip Yip: It’s so weird how many fiddly fixes people try to come up with to get more balls in play when all you need to do is raise the bottom of the strike zone to the top of the knees. It got lowered in the 90s to the bottom of the knees so just bring it back up.

3:30	Ben Clemens: That could be the pitcher fix too

3:30	Ben Clemens: I just don’t think you want to do something that only helps hitters right now

3:30	Ben Clemens: Overall offense isn’t low

3:30	Ben Clemens: It’s jsut homer-based

3:30	Austin: Who is JaCoby Jones? Great defensive OF one year, terrible the next; consistently mediocre hitter before this season but off to a hot start. Not sure what to think

3:31	Ben Clemens: xwOBA is an overrated stat, of course

3:31	Ben Clemens: Or, well, I dunno if that’s true

3:31	Ben Clemens: I think it’s overused analytically

3:32	Ben Clemens: But actually properly rated

3:32	Ben Clemens: No one would tell you it’s the end-all be-all but it’s useful

3:32	Ben Clemens: It thinks Jones is better this year, and he’s hitting the ball harder

3:32	Ben Clemens: But he’s also getting wildly lucky

3:33	Ben Clemens: I think he settles down into an average-ish hitter

3:33	Ben Clemens: As for the defense, he looks the part to me, and Statcast likes him well enough

3:33	Ben Clemens: I guess a nice little piece?

3:33	Justin: What are your thoughts on xFIP?

3:34	Ben Clemens: If I only got one run estimator for pitchers

3:34	Ben Clemens: I think I’d pick xFIP

3:34	Ben Clemens: It has issues, it really does fail to capture some pitchers with HR skill

3:34	Ben Clemens: But it gets a lot right very simply

3:34	Ben Clemens: It’s something I always look at

3:35	Ben Clemens: NOt the last thing I look at, but somewhere in the stack every time

3:35	Chris: Ben why are the Mariners and dodgers playing 2 games in LA starting today then travelling to Seattle to play 2 more games. Why not just play all 4 in one place because of you know covid…

3:35	Glenn Spankman: Asking as a noob, why all the hype around Mize? He didn’t even break 9 K/9 in AA last year and projections have him at a 5.26 ERA.

3:36	Ben Clemens: Because his stuff looks good and he didn’t pitch at AA long enough for that to be hugely predictive, but still had good run prevention numbers in that sample (also not hugely predictive)

3:36	Ben Clemens: Mostly because he’s a top overall pick who has done well at every level in the minors, though

3:36	Justin: Do you value xFIP over SIERA?

3:37	Ben Clemens: Yes, but not by much. I don’t like the opacity of SIERA, the fact that it rates different batted ball outcomes differently but not in an intuitive way.

3:38	Ben Clemens: It has a lot of non-linearities in it, which means that if those are modeled a little wrong you might get some very weird results

3:38	Ben Clemens: Whereas xFIP is less precise but its misses are linear

3:38	Austin: Move the fences back? Maybe not practical, but creates more balls in play and doesn’t mess with the mound distance which could be problematic

3:38	Ben Clemens: Then you need to do something to harm pitchers more

3:39	Ben Clemens: If you just move the fences back right now, you’re turning HR into doubles and outs

3:39	Ben Clemens: So it’s more balls in play but it doesn’t do anything about strikeouts and walks, which I think are the real thing people dislike

3:39	2-D: Do you think Santana can make it to the end of the season with a walk rate at or above 20%?

3:40	Ben Clemens: We project that he will!

3:40	Ben Clemens: By the skinniest of margins

3:41	Ben Clemens: But he already has 40% of his projected PA’s in the bank at like 28%

3:41	Ben Clemens: So, I’ll say yes

3:41	Ben Clemens: That’s fun

3:41	Guest: Believer in Dom Smith? What do the Mets do after 2020?

3:41	Ben Clemens: Yes I am. I think they pray for a universal DH, then end up doing this weird LF thing with him if they can’t get one

3:41	Appa Yip Yip: Robo umps would also help because the strike zone would always be the same none of this borderline called a strike one inning but a ball the next stuff.

3:41	Ben Clemens: Players will give you different answers on that

3:42	Ben Clemens: Lots of players think that an automated strike zone would be hugely pitching friendly because it would make it far easier to get strikes on breaking balls that clip only a corner of the three-dimensional zone

3:42	Ben Clemens: I don’t think a strike zone robot is clearly one way or another

3:42	Joey Bart: The consistent reason given for why he’s not up is that the really good big league players all had 400 – 600 upper minors PAs. Is that basically true?

3:42	Ben Clemens: So no, but it’s kind of true of catchers?

3:42	Ben Clemens: Catching prospects tend to take longer

3:43	Ben Clemens: I think he’s not up b/c they know they aren’t winning this year and don’t want to lose a year of Bart, though

3:43	Ben Clemens: Like, you can bandy around whatever reasons you like, but at the end of the day, money talks

3:43	J: Move the fences back, deaden the ball. Lower the mound and shrink the strike zone.

3:43	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure if I’d like this type of baseball long-term but I’d love it short-term

3:44	Ben Clemens: On this note, I’m going to call it a chat. Thanks for talking today everyone, there were so many excellent questions that I couldn’t remotely get to them all.

3:44	Ben Clemens: Have a great day, and be safe!

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG