Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/27/21

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, and welcome to the chat. I’m just going to finish making a coffee (had a slow start to the day) and then get started.

Ian: If you had an NL MVP vote, who would you vote for?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d vote for Harper. Soto might end the year with better numbers, but Harper has been basically the same player, has done it consistently all year, and has tried to push the Phillies into the playoffs by doing it

Ben Clemens: He also has done better if you account for the situations he’s in (WPA/LI), and is similar in WPA, and has a .621 slugging percentage which is the best in baseball, so that’s fun

Sharps: Juan Soto deserves to win the MVP so that he can get some Dominican musicians together, do a sweet rap, and release the “Soto Shuffle” for all of our listening pleasure.

Ben Clemens: There will be plenty more years for that

Nate: Hi Ben! I’m a diehard Brewers fan and the Cy Young race the last few weeks have caused me a lot of anxiety. It still feels like most people think Scherzer is a clear leader but any analysis I do seems to think otherwise, any words of wisdom for me? Or a gut punch to my Cy hopes for Burnes?

Ben Clemens: I’d vote for Burnes. I’m going to write about why soon, so I won’t give away too much of the article, but the guy is having a legitimately historic season

Ben Clemens: Dinging him for innings pitched doesn’t make senes to me

RedHotRiplets: so harry bader is the new mike trout, right?

Ben Clemens: If you mean an exciting center fielder who grew up in the NY/NJ area, then absolutely

Ben Clemens: If you mean, like, as a baseball player? No

Sam Ham: What active catchers are HoF locks, likelys, and maybe-if-they-keep-producings?

hamannana: Yaz Grandal got a HoF case?

Ben Clemens: I’d say that Posey and Molina are pretty close to locks.

Ben Clemens: Realmuto and Grandal are in the maybe-if-they-keep-it-up bucket for me, with Realmuto ahead of Grandal

Ben Clemens: I think Grandal’s career is just destined to be under-appreciated

Ben Clemens: Tons of value from framing, and people don’t like the way he gets to his offense… by people I mean the types who vote for HoF

Ben Clemens: I don’t think either of them are THAT likely to make it though

Ben Clemens: After that, I think the next tier is Will Smith, Adley, and presumably some people I’ve forgotten about

Ben Clemens: It’s tough to make the hall as a catcher

Appa Yip Yip: Is Adam Cimber 1) legit good, 2) lucky/nice run but whatever, 3) relievers, man

Ben Clemens: I think Cimber is legit good

Ben Clemens: Not solid anchor for your bullpen good, but dude who gets enough batters out that he has a place in any bullpen good

Josh: Is there a place on the internet that can answer pitch sequencing queries like “when a hitter takes a fastball for a strike on 0-0 count, what % of the 0-1 pitch is a fastball”? I tried Statcast search but couldn’t get anywhere.

Ben Clemens: I don’t believe so. You could download a pitch-by-pitch database and do it yourself, but that’s a real pain

Tony Kemp MVP: Hi Ben, I would just like to put this on record. I have been an A’s fan my whole life (I’m in my 20s). We have endured literally nothing but greedy, disingenuous, disengaged ownership. That said, not shelling out $18m for Semien this year is the most enraging thing the team has ever done, imo. Just a perfect microcosm of everything toxic about this deadened franchise. This is my therapy. Thanks

Ben Clemens: It is definitely a bad look for the A’s

Ben Clemens: It’d be one thing if he’d signed a big deal, or if he’d taken a similar one to what the A’s had offered him

Ben Clemens: But their absurd lowball (I think it was like 10mm for one year, but deferred over 10 years)

Ben Clemens: Just, ew

Oneil Cruz fan: Oneil Cruz is destroying the ball since he got called up to Indy.  I think it’s clear he’s not going to be the opening day SS for the Bucs for reasons *cough* service time *cough* but do you think we see him before June?

Ben Clemens: I do, and it’s going to be awesome

Ben Clemens: He’ll be the next big thing in Pittsburgh

Ben Clemens: see what I did there? I’ll be here all week

SlightlyOff: The Giants were forecasted to win 70ish games this year and have gone almost wire to wire with the best record in baseball. Where does that rank them in terms of all time “surprise” teams? The entire scenario feels funnily similar to the Moneyball movie, except switch the positions of the baseball nerd and the ex-player lifer, and then make them both huge nerds (said lovingly as a fellow nerd).

Ben Clemens: I listed them as one of my bandwagon teams of choice and totally agree with you

Ben Clemens: I think that you can reasonably ding them some points b/c they’re the Giants

Ben Clemens: We’ve seen this movie a few times

Ben Clemens: but yeah, it’s one of the great underdog stories of the past few decades

Ben Clemens: and the Dodgers being Freddie Kruger seemingly (constantly walking at exactly your pace) really adds to the fun

John Paul: If Seattle signs a big name infielder, do they keep Crawford at shortstop and move the new guy or vice versa?

Ben Clemens: Depends on who. I think it will just come down to what the person they sign is comfortable with, basically. It’s likely that Crawford is a better defender than whoever they would go for but if that guy wants to play short, is it really worth missing out on a target you like over JP Crawford’s glove?

Inaccessible Rail: In the A’s defense, Semien looked bad in 2020, and no one thought he’d have a year like he’s had.

Ben Clemens: Well sure, but he could have been way worse than this year’s line and still merit a much bigger deal

Ben Clemens: The deal they offered him wouldn’t have landed Trevor Rosenthal, who they were willing to pay more to

Ben Clemens: That seems wrong?

Fart Barfunkel: Say i’m a fan of a team in need of a TOTR SP in the off-season but, since they aren’t the Dodgers, the chances they sign Scherzer are slim to none, who should I be rooting for as the best consolation prize on the free agent market?

Ben Clemens: Robbie Ray, maybe? I can definitely convince myself that he’s the real deal

robertobeers: Lorenzo Cain has played for 2 franchises, MIL-KC-MIL (2nd time). He’s for 1.6war in a part-time role. Next year is the final year of his deal, if the defense continues to play does he make it to 10 years service? Does he get a 2023 deal?

Ben Clemens: I think he will make it to ten years for sure, if he’s willing to take a part-time role at least.

Appa Yip Yip: Do you think MLB teams should have clubhouse dogs and cats that hang out in the dugout during games and also provide emotional support after tough losses but mostly hang out in the dugout during games?

Ben Clemens: I’m more of a dog person than cat person

Ben Clemens: That said, yes

QBall: Cubs say they are going to “spend intelligently” this offseason.  What do you think that means given their current position?

Ben Clemens: They’ll plow more money into Wrigleyville and maybe take a few Giants-esque fliers on interesting mid-career journeymen

Ben Clemens: Maybe one interesting player with ties to Chicago to placate the fanbase

joe schlabotnik: Why are so many folks suggesting corey seager will stay in LA? they have a equal or better shortstop already on the books, plus hes got FA with his brother. What are the odds that two great players, brothers, hit FA at the same time. Why wouldn’t they sign together?

Ben Clemens: I also think that the Dodgers will keep Seager

Ben Clemens: He can play 3b eventually, they like the depth, and there’s no guarantee Turner stays

Ben Clemens: Now, if Turner signs an extension first, that changes things a bit

Yankees Injury List: Moreno or Herrera. Which do you think is more likely to be an impact MLB catcher next year?

Ben Clemens: Ivan Herrera? I’d definitely take Moreno b/c Molina already signed an extension

Ben Clemens: And he’s not coming back to be a backup

stever20: Do you think Qualifying Offers will remain a part of the new CBA?

Ben Clemens: I’ll be honest, I don’t have information or a view on this either way

Joshua: Victor Robles would seem to make a lot of sense for a team like Colorado. What would the Rockies have to give up to land him? Thanks.

Ben Clemens: I can’t imagine the Nats are interested in trading him. It would be an extremely sell-low move, and he’s only hitting Arb 1 next year. I think they’ll give him a bit more time to figure it out, b/c his pedigree is obviously high but he has been wow really bad of late

Inaccessible Rail: Read your article on the decline of the IBB. Isn’t the Zombie Runner rule going to save the IBB?

Ben Clemens: Covered in there, but that rule is likely going away next year

Trent: I would love to see teams adopt bat dogs like some minor league teams have. Think that dream comes to fruition?

Ben Clemens: I don’t. Maybe briefly, but it just feels more like a minor league cute thing than a big league going concern to me

Dr Doolittle: If service time manipulation is no longer a thing, is Julio Rodriguez on the opening day roster in 2022?

Ben Clemens: I think he probably would be, at least to see what they have. That said, uh, it is still a thing, and I can’t imagine much of a chance that the CBA changes THAT much

jimd: hi Ben –  first timer here tho I enjoy your chats. Harrison Bader 1.055 OPS in Sept but is home this week where he has a 561 OPS compared to 984 away OPS. Do you buy into Sept performance or accept that he struggles at home where he will be on this last week of the season?

Ben Clemens: I accept neither! I think that Bader is a pretty good hitter, .800 OPS type, but I don’t buy either the ‘oh he’s hot in September so he’ll keep it going’ or those home/road splits

QBall: If the Nationals are still bad the next couple years, should they entertain trade offers for Juan Soto?

Ben Clemens: No

Ben Clemens: Just, no

Cube Jockey: Waino or bullpen it for the WC game?

Ben Clemens: Waino

Ben Clemens: It might be a marginally worse option from a pure EV standpoint

Ben Clemens: But if they don’t give him a shot at it, fans would and should go crazy

Ben Clemens: And he’s obviously been their best starter this year

Not Dick Monfort: I’ve loved what I’ve seen from Jon Lester in the second half, and think he would make a lot of sense for a team like, oh just picking one randomly, Colorado. What do you think we, er, they, would have to give up to get their hands on him?

Ben Clemens: 1 (one) major league contract

Appa Yip Yip: Is Alejandro Kirk on the Jays to start next year or do you think he’s traded?

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll still be there. As much as I love Moreno, you can’t count on him being an immediate solution and Kirk is a really flexible way to have a backup plan

Yankees Injury List: Do the Yankees make a qualifying offer on Sanchez? Wouldn’t that come out to like $10 Million? And really, would it be that hard to find someone who can actually..you know, play catcher for that?

Ben Clemens: Serious non-tender risk

Ben Clemens: I would probably non-tender him and I like him, though some of that is residual good feelings from how fun New York was his rookie year

QBall: Nicky Lopez is a 4-win player. I’m sure you saw that coming, right?

Ben Clemens: Okay, so hear me out

Ben Clemens: I did see it coming, but a long time ago rather than recently and not in this way

Ben Clemens: I went to the Fall League in 2017 and saw a game where Acuna and Lopez were on the same team

Ben Clemens: They both hit homers, and Acuna’s was a majestic dead center bullet, while Lopez’s was a pulled just-enough right field job

Ben Clemens: But I looked at Lopez’s stats and convinced myself that he was Jose Altuve 2.0

Ben Clemens: So I had TONS of Nicky Lopez stock (hypothetically of course) going into 2018

Ben Clemens: Then I’d totally given up and now he’s good again!

Tony Kemp MVP: This morning’s high octane KC-Cleveland pitching matchup was Jackson Kowar vs Cal Quantrill. Which of them is more likely to be starting MLB games in two years?

Ben Clemens: I’ll say Kowar because I just REALLY don’t believe in Quantrill

B: I’ve never understood why MVP candidates get extra credit for being on good teams. Shouldn’t the guys who have less around them get more credit for producing at such a high level despite having less talent around them?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a fine tiebreaker, but I don’t think it should matter very much either way

Ben Clemens: The argument against a player on a bad team winning it is that they weren’t actually valuable to the team because the team didn’t accrue any value from moving between say, 68 and 74 wins

Ben Clemens: but honestly, I mostly just want to vote for the best player

Treat Urner: Is there a positional adjustment for the baserunning metric on FanGraphs? (Put another way, is J.T. Realmuto rated as the 11th best baserunner because he’s great *for a catcher* and gets a bump relative to a replacement catcher, or because he’s great, period?)

Ben Clemens: There is not

Ben Clemens: The only positional adjustment is applied under ‘def’

Ben Clemens: Realmuto is just a good baserunner. And he is 8th in UBR, which is our pure baserunning stat

Ben Clemens: So it doesn’t take into account steals or double plays with the player batting

Ben Clemens: It’s only advancements on balls in play when you’re already on base

Ben Clemens: (and wild pitches and passed balls)

Ben Clemens: He’s just a great baserunner

Dan: Hi Ben, what are your thoughts about Kirilloff’s offensive upside? It felt like a strange start for him – good/great exit velocities, meh results, not enough walks. Is he a 30+ HR guy?

Ben Clemens: I think his upside is a 35-HR power hitting type. I’m pretty out on him ever hitting for average, the BABIP has just been so bad for so long that I now think he’s actually doing something wrong that I just can’t figure out

JohnThacker: Will the Cardinals finally rest Gallegos and the rest of their top relievers this week, and how much will the extra rest help them in the WC game versus the NL West runner-up?

Ben Clemens: They better. I’m still a Cards fan (though I do think I do a good job being objective when I cover them) and their bullpen management this year just grinds my gears

Mrs. Phanatic: Read the transcript last week, curious to know how exactly one trades interest rates? Did you have any problems with groupies?

Ben Clemens: Haha, there are definitely not groupies. It’s a very obscure finance job, a lot of it comes down to the fact that there are many different interest rates (different times, different bond maturities, etc.) but they’re all quite correlated

Ben Clemens: So it’s a math puzzle

Inaccessible Rail: Sadly, I don’t think the Zombie Runner rule is going away. Both management and players hate extra-inning games. It’s one of the only things they can easily agree on.

Ben Clemens: I would normally agree with you but Manfred specifically mentioned it as something he wanted to get rid of

Ben Clemens: https://sports.yahoo.com/rob-manfred-says-seven-inning-doubleheaders-a…

stever20: Will we ever see starting pitching return to where a 5 inning pitcher isn’t considered normal again?

Ben Clemens: Sadly I don’t think so

Ben Clemens: Rob Mains did a really good deep dive into the continuing evolution of the starting pitcher over at BP this month if you hvae the time to read it

Appa Yip Yip: What kind of a contract is Steven Matz looking at? 2/24? 3/30?

Ben Clemens: I must confess that Matz has mostly been off my radar this year

Ben Clemens: He’s been great in the second half!

Ben Clemens: I think it’s more likely he gets something like 1/12 or 1/15 as a prove-it deal

Ben Clemens: He’s only 30, so I think it’s in his best interests to bet on himself a little

Appa Yip Yip: Zombie runner starting in the 12th inning should be a thing though. So few games get that deep spice it up.

Inaccessible Rail: Didn’t Manfred recant like the next day?

Ben Clemens: He did, but it was still a telling statement

Ben Clemens: I really like the zombie runner rule!

Ben Clemens: But I know that most people do not

5 Run Homer: C is such a variable position that it feels like keeping Jansen and Kirk around is the best idea; if Moreno pops then you deal with it then, instead of banking on it

Ben Clemens: This is exactly where I land

Ben Clemens: Catching prospects are really tough to get a handle on too

Ben Clemens: It’s just a position where development is far from linear in many instances

stever20: Do you think the shift is gone after this year?

Ben Clemens: I do no

Ben Clemens: not*

Ben Clemens: It’s too far down the list of things that this CBA needs to solve, in my opinion

Smiling Politely: People down here are drunk with tabloids and sports, but let’s humor them — what would a theoretical swap of Ohtani for Bellinger + $/others look like, and is there a meaningful, nonzero chance of it happening?

Ben Clemens: Um…. what?

Ben Clemens: Bellinger is sub-replacement level this year and he’ll probably make 17-20 million next year, more the year after that, then hit free agency

Ben Clemens: He’s been bad for two straight years, and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to just say he’s an average player going forward

Ben Clemens: But one with huge salaries due to arb

Ben Clemens: Ohtani’s arb case next year will be interesting, and he’s a free agent the same year, but you’re looking at trading the likely AL MVP for a guy who is more expensive but also likely to be meaningfully worse

Ben Clemens: So like…. Ohtani for Bellinger (but first the Dodgers sign him to a two-year extension and cover 100% of the salary, say 40 million dollars) plus also Gavin Lux and Julio Urias? That sounds like an overpay but I think that’s probably the right range

Ben Clemens: The Dodgers have NO prospects to trade

Not Dick Monfort: If I (random person who doesn’t own the Rockies) can get my hands on V. Robles, how much $ will I have to throw in to flip him for Ohtani?

Ben Clemens: Now I like where THIS one is going

Ben Clemens: I think you should probably get Bellinger first, it sounds like the Angels are interested in him

Mike: Do you ever get sick of all the “they’re playing a game why are they being paid so much” talk? I heard someone say teachers, firefighters etc. should (perhaps they ‘should’) make more than athletes and other entertainers while also claiming to be a staunch capitalist and supporter of lower taxes.

Ben Clemens: With the caveat that I am not gonna get political on here

Ben Clemens: People’s ability to hold two disparate ideas in their head is always amusing to see in action

Ben Clemens: I also think that teachers and firefighters should make much more and generally disagree with the way that society compensates various jobs

Ben Clemens: But I think that makes it hard to be a ‘staunch capitalist’

Sandy Alcantara: Hello Ben, which of my rotation mates do you have pegged for a big season in 2022?

Ben Clemens: Pablo Lopez

Ben Clemens: I’m a HUGE believer

Ben Clemens: I guess we can throw Rogers in there too, but I’m really high on Lopez

stever20: Will DH be universal next year with new CBA?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say yes

Ben Clemens: This seems like one that the players’ union will end up supporting and the owners will use to avoid some harder concessions

Mrs. Phanatic: If Fangraphs as a whole were named POBO of the lolMets, how do you think they’d fair after a five year cycle?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think we’d do all that well

Ben Clemens: Having KG would be a HUGE help, of course

Ben Clemens: because he knows the mechanics of things

Ben Clemens: But I think we’d universally be bad at the little things that you have to do well. And none of us have experience running a huge team like that

Ben Clemens: I think if you could somehow make some deal where we contributed analysis and had daily sitdowns with an experienced front office person who actually tried to implement our ideas, that’d be one thing

Ben Clemens: But just us? Nah we’d be bad

Guest: Can you build a reasonable xERA based on barrels and hard hit %? Plus maybe k% – bb%?

Ben Clemens: I think you could, though hard hit rate is less interesting to me than barrels and GB%

Ben Clemens: I’ve experimented with it from time to time but I just never got all that comfortable with it and projection systems are good enough that I always give up

>this guy<: If Fangraphs were running the Mets it would be fun to see the twitter flame war between Dan and the Reds Twitter over chili

Ben Clemens: Dan and I disagree on chili

Ben Clemens: I also disagree with Cincinnati on chili

Appa Yip Yip: Dan would rage quit within the first month as soon as he was forced to do something that bored him.

Ben Clemens: We might do better by putting ZiPS in charge. I thikn Dan is just a guy who asks a robot what to do

Mitch: With so many teams seeking upgrades at SS for 2022 (NYY, MIN, OAK, LAA, DET, PHI, etc.) What do you think about Adalberto Mondesi as a sneaky trade candidate? He seems to be blocked in KC as Lopez, Merrifield, and soon Witt Jr. figure to lock down the MIF

Ben Clemens: I think the Royals would be looking to move him, but I’m skeptical that he’s all that good

Ben Clemens: What I mean by that is that I’d be fine trading for him as a reclamation project if I weren’t trying to make the playoffs next year

Ben Clemens: Or if I thought I was a few years away

Ben Clemens: But counting on him for 650 PA in a playoff race is I think foolhardy given his recent trend

5 Run Homer: Is Merrifield just a Royal for life? It feels like he’s been prospectively on the trade block for four years now

Ben Clemens: You have to think yes at this poit

Ben Clemens: point*

Ben Clemens: The internet rumor community has tried to put Merrifield on the block over and over again

Ben Clemens: And he just…. never is

Your Name: Who wants to deal with the big NY market? FG should take over the Rockies

Ben Clemens: I rated the Rockies GM job a 10 out of 10!

Ben Clemens: https://www.denverpost.com/2021/07/15/mlb-experts-state-of-rockies-tre…

Ben Clemens: that’s b/c being any GM is a 10, though

Ben Clemens: I think it would be a fun and challenging job, but it might just be challenging

Mick: How do the Giants keep the good times rolling into next year? Hard to count on continued excellence from the older veterans but you also can’t discount the team that has, to this point, been the best team in baseball

Ben Clemens: I think retooling the pitching staff is going to be necessary

Ben Clemens: The way they built it this year was so heavy on short-term contracts that sometihng needs to be done

Ben Clemens: I think I’d also try to bring back Bryant, who fits really well with the way they want to construct lineups

Mick: What if you guys could take back August, Jeff, Dave, and Carson? Then could you run a front office yourselves?

Ben Clemens: That would make it more interesting for sure

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure what lessons they’ve learned from their time on the team side, and I’ve met them in person a combined 1 times between the four of them, but yes, adding team-side experience like that (and throw in Corinne Landrey too) would be really helpful

5 Run Homer: Does Bellinger still have a good player somewhere in him? He was so, so good in his MVP season, I can’t quite reckon with the idea that he’s just broken now

Ben Clemens: He must!

Ben Clemens: I totally agree with you

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure where it is, and wow he’s looked bad recently

Ben Clemens: But it’s there somewhere

Ben: What would your reaction before the season have been, if I told you that Cody Bellinger and Brandon Crawford would each have over 300 PAs and that Crawford would be worth more than 6 WAR more than Bellinger?

Ben Clemens: Let’s be honest, I just wouldn’t have believed you

Ben Clemens: I wanted to say something more clever than that but no, I wouldn’t have believed you

Naftali: Where would you rank Salvy Perez among catchers this year? His defense puts him lower down on my rankings.

Ben Clemens: Top 2 or 3 for me, 46 dingers is so many!

RAGBRAI: The Phillies seemed to have under performed expectations despite still in the race for a title. What off-season moves do they need to make or is it just better luck and a little fine tuning they need?

Ben Clemens: I thinkt hey need another piece, because they’ve been a little unlucky but so has the entire NLE

Ben Clemens: On that note, I have to get my dog to a quick vet appointment, so I’m going to take off. Thanks so much for everyone’s time and questions today, and I can’t wait to do it again next week.

Ben Clemens: Have a great day

Ben Clemens: WAIT!

Ben Clemens: Must answer this one last important question

Morbo: Ben, my favorite hitter is Juan Soto. Does that mean Juan Soto is his own favorite hitter

Ben Clemens: Yes.

Ben Clemens: Aaaand we’re done