Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/8/25

Ben Clemens: Let’s start the chat a little early, because I’ve submitted my article for the day and it’s not time for lunch yet so not much is going on here

Guest: yankees or jays for al east

Ben Clemens: Gimme the Jays, largely because they’re two games ahead

Ben Clemens: I don’t think either team is way better than the other, so record is definitely a great tiebreaker

Feeling Blue: Has there ever been a more soul crushing, demoralizing and debilitating regular season loss as Yamamato’s almost no-no the other night?

Ben Clemens: I mean, that has to be number one right?

Ben Clemens: just unreal

Tom: O’Neil Cruz? Still a future stud?

Ben Clemens: I kind of feel like at this point, we know what he is

Ben Clemens: which is a very nice player but probably not a superstar

Ben Clemens: he turns 27 in a month. he debuted in 2021. he has 1500 major league PA

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s reasonable to say ‘well he’s probably headed for a 130 wRC+ in the near future’ anymore

Ben Clemens: there’s just too much evidence that he’s probably not

Bort: What do you make of Michael Harris II? It feels like there’s another level in there he could unlock and won’t until he addresses his absolutely horrendous plate discipline.

Ben Clemens: I wrote about him either late last month or early this month, but either way: I can buy what you’re saying, but like…. he’s not improving the plate disicpilne yet so I’m not expecting it to suddenly change

Ben Clemens: this is one where he’ll have to prove it to me, basically

Ben Clemens: or well, not to me. Michael Harris doesn’t know me

Ben Clemens: but you know what I mean

The Power of the West Compels Us: Prior to tonight, when was the last time that the Angels, Athletics, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, and Padres all had a home game on the same date?

Ben Clemens: Wow, that’s…. wild

Mike Trout Mask Replica: Happy Monday Ben! The Tigers have just been kind of bleh since about the All Star break. Of course, they are still right in the thick of it for best record in the AL, so the sky isn’t exactly falling…but on the other hand, is there anything beyond Skubal going supernova for us Tigers’ fans to really hang our hats on for optimism this might be the year?

Ben Clemens: I think #1 is a real offense

Ben Clemens: like, playoff offenses that have guys I’m comfortable with at most of the spots are not a given

Ben Clemens: the Tigers didn’t have one last year, for example

DC51stState: Hi Ben—I’m curious about your impressions of three highly touted prospects who’ve struggled in their rookie seasons in the majors: the National Dylan Crews, the Royal Jac Caglianone, and the Astro Cam Smith. My take is that Smith showed the most promise, by being an “okay” major leaguer through about 90 games before slamming into the metaphorical rookie wall, and that Crews has hit terribly but at least showed power/speed flashes at times. Caglianone, who resoundingly succeeded the best of this trio in the minors, has been awful. Is there something that can explain whether these issues are either growing pains or indicators of overhype?  Will they be average major leaguers in 2026? And selfishly, how would you rank them as dynasty considerations (priced the same)?

Ben Clemens: Oh this is a fun one

Ben Clemens: I’m actually pretty encouraged by all three, or at least, nto ready to cut bait

Ben Clemens: Smith is my favorite, and in an article I have coming out tomorrow, I forecasted some stolen base upside for him

Ben Clemens: Crews, eh, it’s 250 PA and he was injured a lot. my view of him remains ‘phenomenally talented young player, let’s see him do it in the majors’

Ben Clemens: I know that Cags’s wrC+ has been worse, but I like a lot of the process stats for him, actually. like if you told me he’d only strike out 21% of the time, I’d be super thrilled

Ben Clemens: the hard hit rate stuff is there too. I think he’s just on the extreme short side of variance plus still adapting to the majors

Bosoxforlife: Aroldis Chapman had to strikeout 4 yesterday to continue his amazing streak. A great hockey coach was once asked how important goaltending was and he answered “75% unless you don’t have one then it’s 100%”. Closing looks to be very similar when we are seeing so many games being lost late like the Cubs yesterday and most games Devin Williams tries to close.

Ben Clemens: I think this is why closers command big premiums at the trade deadline

Ben Clemens: teams have had 3 months to see their own bad closers

Pinstriped Power: Trent Grisham! You noted earlier in the summer he was having the breakout we always wanted. The awesomeness has continued! (Not a question, just a shout-out)

Ben Clemens: couldn’t agree more

Ben Clemens: I love so much about Grisham’s game, foremost how it looks like he’s asleep defensively while he continues to play well

Ben Clemens: the lackadaisical body language plus elite defensive instincts is so fun

War2D2: Hey Ben- The world is falling apart. Cruelty and lawlessness is being branded as “constitutional.” The society I’ll be handing off to my children seems irreparably broken. Anyway, who you like for the final AL WC?

Ben Clemens: It’s grim out there, some days you wonder whether the government, AI, or climate change will do the job first. I think that hte Mariners are likely to hold on to the final spot and help Washingtonians (state, certainly not district!) stop thinking about hte crushing inevitability of the end of the world for a few weeks

Mom: Hiking shoes or sneakers for hiking around Arnold?

Ben Clemens: sneakers (to answer a question that no one will understand)

Oaktown Blues: Hopes of Zack Gelof being a productive hitter again are pretty much gone, right? The contact numbers are just abysmal

Ben Clemens: yeah….

Ben Clemens: i wanted to believe that 2023 was a sign of something, but we just have a lot more evidence that it isn’t now

Oaktown Blues: The book is out on Nick Kurtz: The guy just can’t hit velo below 35 MPH

The M’s only win when I’m abroad: Has there been any analysis on the frequency of position players pitching (and the impact on offensive stats). It sure seems more frequent than it used to be. Thinking especially about how we’ve had three 4-homer games this year, but two of them included at bats against a position player.

Ben Clemens: seems like a really good article that someone should write

Ben Clemens: we have any of those people around?

Ben Clemens: oh, me? well, yeah, I’ll look into it

Wild Card Hopefuls: Who of the cards, red, giants, dbacks has best chances of grabbing a playoff spot?

Ben Clemens: I think I’ll give it to the Reds because I think their chances of just capturing a few ridiculous pitching hot streaks in a bottle and riding them are the highest

Ben Clemens: but I don’t feel great about any. The Reds needed to do more against the Mets

Ben Clemens: they went 2-1, which is nice, but the way they came into the series they really needed a sweep

Guest: This may sound silly but why do you think the efficacy of player dev groups (seemingly) varies so wildly?  The monetary investment is pennies compared wto a single good starting pitcher, so money *shouldn’t* be a barrier. Griffen Canning has said that the Angels have all of the same equipment as the Mets. Despite being on complete opposite ends of the spectrum on the pitching dev side. Is good personnel that hard to find?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s the whole ‘how come facebook hires completely new teams every three years but continues to be facebook?’ question, but for society

Ben Clemens: companies and teams are more than just the sum of the equipment they have

Ben Clemens: workplace culture matters a lot. i worked at several highly regarded hedge funds where money for my systems was certainly no object. the one with good workplace culture got stuff done, the one with a dysfunctional workplace dysfucntioned

Angels 2: Am I crazy for thinking that the Dodgers’ future looks kinda bleak? Several veterans having career-worst seasons, rookies look mediocre… they have a sub-.450 record since July 1st.

Ben Clemens: i mean…. probably you are, haha

Ben Clemens: July 1st is not very long ago, the Dodgers have a ton of good players, and they’ll spend money to get more when the current ones are gone

Nate: Without looking at the leaderboard, do you know who the current saves leader is?

Ben Clemens: I absolutely do not, but let’s give it a shot. it needs to be someone on a good team who hasn’t really had an IL stint or job change this year. so in the AL that’s Hoffman and Munoz basically? maybe Chapman but I feel like he was a little banged up at some point

Ben Clemens: in the NL, then, Diaz Duran (we’ll count both leagues) Megill

Ben Clemens: I guess I’ll say Munoz?

Ben Clemens: oh man, my apologies to Carlos Estevez

Ben Clemens: who I have in fantasy!

Ben Clemens: the most forgettable good closer in baseball

Sb4321: How concerned should I be about Seattle’s ability to develop pitching? They used to be able to pick up relievers and fix them quickly, but their recent reliever pickups have been awful. Starting pitching has regressed as well.

Ben Clemens: probably not that concerned yet. I’d still be concerned about their ability to develop hitting though

Nate: How much do you think Framber’s FA market is realistically going to be impacted by last Tuesday’s cross-up incident? My guess is probably not really, teams have shown a willingness to ignore hotheadedness if you produce

Ben Clemens: yeah, agreed

Ben Clemens: it’d be one thing if it were a much longer-lasting incident, resulted in some suspensions, wasn’t handled in house etc

Joey Caltrain: Following up on your mailbag comments about Logan Webb… is Patrick Bailey more valuable to a team like the Giants with a Webb-like ace than he would be for other teams?

Ben Clemens: i think so for sure

Ben Clemens: I haven’t found a math way to say this

Ben Clemens: but c’mon

Ben Clemens: clearly Webb throws so many stirkes around the edge of the zone that a good framer would help

Ben Clemens: and I think that teams that rely a lot on command and called strikes in general are who you want

Soto fan: Soto recently had a streak of over 120 bats without a double which seemed cool. Then I realized that Trent Grisham hasn’t hit a double since July 21. Soto has a profile that leads to no doubles but Grisham not as much. He has a 20% line drive rate over that stretch. Other Yankees lefties have had no trouble hitting doubles over the same period.

Ben Clemens: when it happens to a guy like Grisham, it’s often because the balls that ‘should’ be doubles are going over the fence

Ben Clemens: like, it’s no coincidence that he has a career high HR/FB and also a big imbalance in 2b/HR

Bosoxforlife: I found it interesting that when comparing the fWAR and bWAR of the top 12 Red Sox players in eleven of those comparisons the bWAR was higher and, in many cases, by significant amounts. The combined number was over 4 WAR. What could be the reason for this?

Ben Clemens: hmmmmmm

Ben Clemens: so some of it is defense, where it looks like you could maybe squeeze a win and a half out?

Ben Clemens: but a really big portion of it is that the Sox have a 3.78 ERA and 4.06 FIP, a third of a run gap

Ben Clemens: one of the higher marks in baseball, and I’d bet that the teams ahead of them (Texas, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Milwaukee, CHC) have the same thing in general

Guest: Has the Clay Holmes starter experiment been a success, a failure, or a push?

Ben Clemens: push i think. at the price, you had to rate it as fairly unlikely to succeed. if it were more likely to succeed, he would have gotten more

RookTaker55: Is it reasonable to think 2 things are true: 1) the Cubs would have been better off keeping Bellinger and the prospects they used to make the Tucker trade 2) the Cubs are still happy they made the trade because they’re going to make the playoffs and Hoyer got himself an extension

RookTaker55: Is there going to be an article soon about the Yankees brazen sign stealing? Obviously it’s all above the table and legal, but the hand flapping stuff is borderline hilarious and deserves to be written about

Ben Clemens: Two things b/c I accidentally clicked on a few

Ben Clemens: eh I still would make the Tucker trade again. but yeah, I think that the Cubs are happier about it b/c they’re gonna make teh playoffs

Ben Clemens: second, I’m not planning one, but I definitely find it hilarious

Ben Clemens: they’re so un-subtle that I think the smart money is on them just goofing with the pitcher

Ben Clemens: aaron judge doing the giant wings flapping thing was just AMAZING

Soto fan: How many years do you see Edwin Diaz getting this off-season if he opts out? The velo has been all over the place (even more than usual) and he’ll be 32. But the performance is still elite and he’s durable enough to go more than one inning.

Ben Clemens: Dan wrote about this today, so I’d recommend his article, but yeah, I’d wave a lot of money at him and I expect him to stay on the Mets

Joey Caltrain: more Webb thoughts: I’ve always heard Framber Valdez mentioned as a similar player to Webb and it feels like it would be really fun to see the Giants double down on sinker/changeup heavy groundballing innings eaters. Any thoughts on Valdez coming to the Giants? (BTW, I could see Posey, as a bit of a traditionalist and a former catcher, being particularly sensitive about the recent incident. See for example his comments about Snell.)

Ben Clemens: I’ve been a Valdez-head for a while, but I actually think their similarities are overstated. Framber’s real standout pitch might be his sinker, but it might also be his curveball, which I think is the best in baseball

Ben Clemens: and he leans on a it a lot hunting for strikeouts. I think he used to pitch more like Webb earlier in his career but he gets more swinging strikes and fewer called strikes pretty consistently

Ben Clemens: i don’t hate the idea of doubling up on grounders, though. that does seem smart, to get multiple pitchers who your defense flatters

Ranger in HOU: If the Rangers lose the next series and are essentially eliminated, should they call up Walcott, or would that be detrimental to his development

Ben Clemens: Oh man, I don’t feel qualified to answer this without a lot more inside knowledge of the situation. i’m generally a big fan of giving people call ups if the team thinks they are even close to ready, though

Okra: Trent Grisham has 131 wRC+ and has been a little unlucky to boot.  only 28 years old.  not many good free agent hitters this year.  i think he gets easily breaks $100M this offseason.  could see 5/110.  thoughts?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so

Ben Clemens: I think that the fact that he struggled to get PT in 2024 is gonna weigh on him, fair or not

Ben Clemens: I think he’s going to end up being a bit of a bargain b/c of those factors

Ben Clemens: I’d be interested in signing him though

Bosoxforlife: I have a pet peeve about roster construction that was brought to a head this week. Twice the Red Sox were able to use Carlos Narvaez as a pinch hitter because they called up a third catcher  and he delivered both times in crucial situations Meanwhile I watch their 13th pitcher, please no more Hicks, fail at every opportunity. Being forced to keep a potentially useful bat on the bench to keep a very low quality pitcher  on the roster makes no sense

Ben Clemens: i mean, I agree, I think the really hard thing to wrap your head around is how many bad pitchers teams just think they have to use to protect the arms of the good ones

Ben Clemens: please no more Hicks is very funny to me, by the way

Ben Clemens: I’ve seen him pitch a lot over the years and there might be no pitcher where how it feels to think about this guy relieving and what happens when he’s pitching feel most disconnect

Ben Clemens: disconnected*

Insert Witty Name Here: I’ll be the tennis chatter for you, read your 6th thing you liked last week. My couple things to discuss: I love how it’s just two people head to head for hours, no helmets to obscure their expressions, short quick bursts of movement, the angles and spin of the ball, such a great game to watch.  I know it’s unrealistic, but I would love to see a Skenes/Ohtani match up for 100 pitches/27 outs or whatever.

Ben Clemens: right isn’t it great?

Ben Clemens: it’s an incredible TV sport, but also an incredible live sport

Ben Clemens: this year’s french open final is definitely gonna be my favorite sporting event of the year, i see no way for anything else to top it

RookTaker55: What do teams do when they consider Ryan Helsley on the FA market this winter? The stuff looks close to the same but this Mets run has been horrific to a historical extent. What does his market look like?

Ben Clemens: oh man, great question

Ben Clemens: i guess i’d still be happy to sign him

Ben Clemens: but man…. I’d want to make sure he isn’t hurt

Ranger in HOU: Does keeping Mason Miller in a set up role make sense for the padres pen or do you think that they’ll shift him to more of a closer role if Suarez begins to falter?

Ben Clemens: i think that the Padres value keeping their vets happy, so there’s almost no chance of a shift

Ben Clemens: I also don’t think it matters much

Ben Clemens: Miller is getting high leverage opportunities too, and I think it’ll kinda take care of itself this winter, Suarez is surely opting out

Oaktown Blues: Luis Morales starting today. Does he deserve to be in the same “shooting star rookie aces” conversation as McLean, Horton, Waldrep, etc? (Thinking of your recent five things article) Or is he a step below?

Ben Clemens: This is gonna be the first start of his I’ve caught (planning on watching it, at least). he hasn’t really popped onto my radar b/c he doesn’t miss a lot of bats or get a lot of chase, but i’m ready to be proven wrong

Jeremy: Re: Dan’s piece earlier today, two questions. One: should Bregman opt in, take $80M over the next two years, and then hit FA? Two: What do the Red Sox do if both Bregman and Story opt in? Because I kind of feel like they both might.

Ben Clemens: I think Bregman’s gonna opt out and essentially hold Boston hostage. I would

Ben Clemens: if this year ends with a so-so playoff run and then Bregman departing in free agency, I think that would look pretty bad on the front office, maybe they can spin it but I feel like a TON of the Devers leaving saga was about freeing up space for Bregman, or at least they pitched it that way

Ben Clemens: so if the team remains weirdly constructed and they let an infielder leave? like…. that would feel bad!

Ben Clemens: I mean, what do they care if both opt in? the Story money has been dead for years

Ben Clemens: I’m sure they’d be thrilled to have Bregman on 2/80

2131, 1312: Doubling down on grounders also makes a lot of sense when you have the Giant’s left-side infield lol

Ben Clemens: yeah, right?

Ben Clemens: I assume you’re talking about Devers/Koss

Ben Clemens: oh my god, I turned that game on in the third inning and went WHAT

Ben Clemens: not realizing that Chapman and Adames had been ejected

Okra: I went a Rangers game this weekend and am thoroughly confused as to what was gained with the new 1.2B stadium built next to the old one.  Is the marginal gain of maybe +10 suites really worth it?  Totally generic place.  Was a perfect 70 degrees saturday night and they kept the roof closed.

Ben Clemens: it’s not really my style either

Ben Clemens: i haven’t liked many of the domes I’ve been to, with the exception of Miller Park

Ben Clemens: amfam, ugh

Big Fan: Am I crazy to think that before the Rays put Ha Seong Kim on waivers, they had already talked to the Braves and knew they’d claim him?

Ben Clemens: well…. I don’t think they officially had. but I think they might have had an inkling

21127: Is Cade Smith the most forgettable good closer in MLB?

Ben Clemens: I think that me forgetting MLB saves leader Carlos Estevez suggests that it’s him

Ben Clemens: but yeah, Smith is in the same group

Soto fan: Not looking for a further response as contract speculation is kinda silly in the first place, just want to clarify. Dan touched on the why but didn’t speculate on what he thought Diaz might be looking at. Anyways thanks for the chat

Ben Clemens: ohhhh I see

Ben Clemens: like…. 4/80?

Insert Witty Name Here: Follow up tennis thoughts: Andre Aggasi’s autobiography is fantastic to read.  The contrast between both Sabalenka/Swiatek and Sinner/Alcaraz makes it so much more fun. The French final was amazing to watch and it killed my whole day, but that one drop shot Carlito had where he just had that childish smile was golden.

Ben Clemens: yeah honestly I’ve been finding women’s tennis more compelling aside from matchups between Sinner and Alcaraz recently

Ben Clemens: the big gap at the top of the men’s game makes so many of these non-elite matchups feel silly

Ben Clemens: whereas the women’s game has a ton of great conflicting styles and any of them can win

Ben Clemens: Amanda Anisimova is like the Kyle Schwarber of tennis, she’s trying to hit a home run every time

Ben: Do you think that exposing a guy too early can be detrimental to his development?  This is partially a response to the Walcott question but really about Volpe and Jordan Walker type players.

Ben Clemens: i definitely do

Ben Clemens: I think it’s probably very hard to know ex ante

Ben Clemens: because it’s helpful for some guys too

Aaron Nola: so, like, am I completely cooked or nah?!

Ben Clemens: oh man

Ben Clemens: i hate saying guys are cooked

Ben Clemens: but yes

Ben Clemens: Patrick Corbin 2.0

Ranger in HOU: What was the reason to waive Kim? I was confused by that move.

Ben Clemens: $$$$$$

2131, 1312: I’m taking it for granted that the Os aren’t signing any impact hitters or front of the rotation pitchers, but they have to sign some relief arms, right?
I know they’ve been very nervous about injury histories in that market, but right now they don’t have a single tenable arm on the roster

Ben Clemens: I feel like they will

Ben Clemens: they tried this year, you know? Kittredge was a nice signing. I think that you can convince yourself that the short-term deals to releivers are good business b/c you can trade them if you fall out of the race, and the O’s have never been opposed to making +EV moves

Ben Clemens: so I expect them to try it

Bosoxforlife: I agree completely. Even when the incredible triumvirate of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic were at their peak there were many other competitive players, Wawrinka, Murray, DelPotro and others. I don’t watch nearly as much as I used to.

Ben Clemens: yeah, I think the new generation might eventually rise to that level (Draper, Fonseca, maybe even Rune and Mensik?), but I love some variety

Ben Clemens: DelPo was so fun, btw

Ben Clemens: if you liked him, Anisimova has the exact same game

CleGuy: What accounts for Cleveland sticking around in the playoff race in spite of a terrible run differential? Are they better than their run differential says, or just lucky?

Ben Clemens: i mean…. occam’s razor would suggest lucky

Ben Clemens: since plenty of teams outperform their run differential every year

Ben Clemens: and then don’t appear to maintain the skill in the future

Ben Clemens: but I haven’t done any specific looking into them

Relief Market: Who are even the top relief targets for the coming offseason? A Diaz-Mets reunion feels almost inevitable if he even opts out and most of the “closers” on the market have been absolute garbage lately (36-year-old Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Helsley, Jordan Romano)

Ben Clemens: Suarez is gonna opt out and be interesting, I htink Helsley will get a bag even with his recent struggles

Raider13: Hey Ben, I’m a big prospect guy. Thoughts on Alfredo Duno?

Ben Clemens: I mean…. I’d say listen to Eric. I am not arrogant enough to think that I’m adding much value in my evaluations of 19-year-olds in short season ball

Ben Clemens: I just read what good prospect writers say and parrot them, essentially

Thomas: What contract do you think Bichette gets? Sportsnet did an article a while back that put the guess at 8 years, $216 million, which sounds like a reasonable starting point

Ben Clemens: man, that’s a lot of money

Ben Clemens: uhhhhh…. I mean I guess it’s about right though

Ben Clemens: looking through here and trying to slap some comps on him, I don’t think tha’ts super far off

Ben Clemens: I’m definitely worried that his baserunning has been so bad this year

Ben Clemens: in conjunction with his defense. but eh, he’s a really good hitter

RookTaker55: Someone will sign Luke Weaver to closer money and honestly given his metrics over the last 2 years I don’t know that it’s a bad idea. You could almost make the argument to QO him.

Ben Clemens: I would 100% QO him

Ben Clemens: and I’d sign him to a closer deal, too

Perry Minasian’s burner: Have you considered that the best thing for a player’s development may be to promote them to the bigs within 30-90 days?

Ben Clemens: may or may not be

Ben Clemens: you might be Neto, or you might be Ryan Johnson

Relief Market: Honestly good point there, I’d 100% take Luke Weaver over any of those guys, probably including Suarez as well (signing a 35-year-old closer feels kind of sus)

Ben Clemens: so I actually don’t care about closer age very much

Ben Clemens: b/c eh, they’re gonna break in two years anyway

Ben Clemens: but yeah, Weaver is just good

jerry: re $216 million. think were still not able to comprehend the impact of inflation / gambling money inflating salaries. times are different, suddenly

Ben Clemens: yep!

Ben Clemens: that’s definitely what happened to me

Ben Clemens: i went whoa that’s many dollars

Ben Clemens: and then thought about it more and eh, it was not that mnay dollars

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: O’s need two front liners, right?

Dude A, Dude B, Bradish, Rogers, Kremer (fingers crossed), and then anything you get out of Rodriguez, Young, Povich, Wells is gravy

they won’t get two, but they might get one? Cease pillow contract (see Giants Snell), Framber 4/$160M, something like that? Burnes contract seems to imply, as usual, it’s the years not the dollars

Ben Clemens: i mean, first allow me to say ‘HA!’ in re: your suggestion of Baltimore giving $160 million over four years, one of the largest contracts of all time, to a pitcher

Ben Clemens: but uh, yes, I continue to think they need to be more serious about signing good starting pitchers

Matt VW: Follow up on the Anisimova DelPo comparison: if we set the over under at AA’s career major titles at 1.5, where do you land?

Ben Clemens: oof

Ben Clemens: that’s a good line

Ben Clemens: okay she’s 24, and she’s played in the last two slam finals

Ben Clemens: but like, got pretty wrecked in both

Ben Clemens: I think I’d take the over but I would not be happy about it. the bench is really deep in women’s tennis right now but her game is well suited to 3 of the 4 majors, and also it’s best of 3s so she can spike some

Hundreds, perhaps thousands: Mets re-sign polar bear Pete, right?

Ben Clemens: I think so for sure

Ben Clemens: so I went to a Mets game a few weeks ago, Tong’s debut

Ben Clemens: and my wife and I were baffled by how much more love Pete gets than like every other met

Ben Clemens: not because he isn’t a fan favorite who’s also great, but like, Juan Soto? Crickets. Pete Alonso? men rending their garments in joy that they got to see him hit

Ben Clemens: I think it’d be a massive fail on their part not to re-sign him, and I think the market happens to line up to make it quite likely

Bosoxforlife: But Anisimova did come back from being double-bageled by Swiatek to beat her at the US Open.

Ben Clemens: yeah and she beat Sabalenka at Wimbledon too. has a winning record against Sabalenka, even. I think she’ll break thorugh. but I do understand the hesitation

Dan: Can you give us a two sentence board game review?

Ben Clemens: yeah let me look at what I’ve played recently

Ben Clemens: “Taverns of Tiefenthal takes the engine building, buy one thing that improves a second thing that improves a third thing style so common in Euro games and makes them all feed into running your own delightful medieval tavern. It feels cozy and has a great mix of your decisions feeling meaningful enough to think about them for a little bit, but enough continuing variance that planning ahead is for suckers.”

Jeremy: Has the Rays constant roster churn has cost them meaningful numbers of fans? Same question for the Brewers.

Ben Clemens: I think it has for the Rays, but I actually don’t think it has for the Brewers

Ben Clemens: I think that Wisconsin is kind of special, though. Don’t try to replicate what the Brewers are doing and think you’ll get sports fans like that

Jordan “The King” Lawlar: It is happening for me in 2025 or am I bench fodder until 2026 when I get an opening day gig?!

Ben Clemens: yeah 2026

Justin: How much do you factor in expected stats when you evaluate a player?

Ben Clemens: like, xwOBA? I mean some but I care a lot more about the components. xERA? I’m interested in it over multi year spans for sure, I think it does a better job of capturing contact quality than other stuff I look at

Ben Clemens: basically I think I’d prefer projections to expected stats, and then I like to try to create my own predictive stats or come up with reasons why I think a player has room to imrpove/is being overrated

Ben Clemens: the blanket ‘wOBA – xwOBA’ doesn’t actually work all that well, I’d say, in beating projections, so I don’t need to use it

Insert Witty Name Here: Enjoy all the tennis talk! How’s your game on the hard courts? I have zero real experience but my toddler loves it so I’m going to grow it with him.  Do you really agree that it’s the world’s healthiest sport? How many curlers get hurt?

Ben Clemens: my game is so bad! so bad!

Ben Clemens: but it’s fun. I think that a lot of the healthiness of tennis is from the fact that you run around for an hour, anecdotally speaking I play at the Golden Gate Park tennis center and it’s a meaningfully healthier crowd than the already healthy crowd in the park

jerry: remotely interested in EPL ? just w/r/t liverpool and red sox. liverpool spent like $600 mil on buying contracts alone this “offseason”. at the same time sox are pinching pennies. As a liverpool fan, and sox hater, its very ideal for me!

Ben Clemens: i follow kind of vaguely. and yes, I definitely find this funny

The M’s only win when I’m abroad: Who do you take in a Mariners/Astros wild card series (assuming we don’t blow it before then)?

Ben Clemens: I think I’ll take the Mariners b/c I took them to win the division before the year, so might as well be consistent

Dirt: Do the Giants run out a Gilbert/Matos platoon in RF next year? Matos can’t actually hit lefties

Ben Clemens: I think it’ll be a soft platoon, with risk of Ramos getting rolled up in it too

Ben Clemens: like Matos can’t hit lefties, it’s true, and Ramos is so bad defensively that I’d love to get him out of the field whenever possible

Jeff Cirillo: The Brewers are about to pass the Angels for 12th in the league in attendance this year, so the strategy hasn’t cost them fans. One thing Milwaukee typically finds a way to do, though, is keep one Face of the Franchise around. Braun for a while, now Yelich, Chourio will be there for 8 years, etc.

Ben Clemens: yeah, well said

Ben Clemens: not that it helped the Rays with Longoria

Ben Clemens: but really, the extremely long legacy of sports in the Wisconsin area, and the Wisconsin vs. the world mentality that I think the Packers have helped cultivate, just means the initial conditions are so different from a city of transplants in Florida that you shouldn’t expect the same outcomes

Ben Clemens: Tampa has more Yankees fans than Rays fans, I’d bet

Ben Clemens: or well…. it’s certainly a lot closer than you’d like

War2D2: Speaking of the Cubs and, separately, contracts, do you think Tucker gets a big deal somewhere or do you think he has to settle for a Bregman-esque short term thing? I feel like that’s the only way the Cubs resign him, but also this point…I mean, would you? He’s looked terrible and is starting to get a whiff of Kris Bryant about him.

Ben Clemens: oh no, he’s gonna get a bag

Ben Clemens: like yes, he’s slumping hard

Ben Clemens: slash is maybe injured, etc.

Ben Clemens: Kris Bryant had a 77 wRC+ and missed half the season in 2020, and his best year after 2017 was 4.4 WAR

Ben Clemens: (he signed his deal after the 2021 season)

Ben Clemens: Tucker’s ‘whiff of Bryant’ downturn comes with a season that would have been one of the best of Bryant’s career

Dan: Is over exposing a fringe major leaguer that much of a thing? I always that it was much more about simply playing a below average player than a player producing less because opponents can scout them more.

Ben Clemens: I would assume that it is not, and that yes, the main consideration is how good they are

Ben Clemens: i think it’s very different with prospects though

Ben Clemens: or like, guys who you think might have true difference-making ability

Hundreds, perhaps thousands: Who will be the Kyle Stowers of 2026?

Ben Clemens: i mean, my best guess is Kyle Stowers

Ben Clemens: but I’m less certain than ever of what consciousness even is

Ben Clemens: maybe I’ll be Kyle Stowers

Dan: Have you ever been privy to a teams Kangaroo court? Could you share and example of something someone was charged with? No names needed.

Ben Clemens: I wish

jerry: tucker also in the rendon / grisham mode of possibly not caring

Ben Clemens: eh, I just don’t think this is true

Ben Clemens: about Grisham or Tucker

Ben Clemens: i mean, who’s to say

Ben Clemens: but they give me different vibes. Grisham in particular is a pretty hustle-play kinda guy

Ben Clemens: i mean, my lasting memory of him is of him overrunning the ball in the 2019 wild card game b/c he was so geeked up to make a throw home

Ben Clemens: he might move languidly but I don’t think those are the same

Ben Clemens: also like, he’s not going around giving quotes like “I personally don’t rate baseball all that highly in my priorities”

Ben Clemens: to misqoute Ant

1st Base Market: Assuming the Mets do re-sign Alonso, what’s to be made of the free agent 1Bers? Coming into the year I thought this would be a sneaky deep class with Naylor, Flores, LaMonte Wade, Arraez, the seemingly ageless Carlos Santana, but outside of Naylor I think all of those names have had tremendous value crashes

Ben Clemens: yeah, it’s bad!

Ben Clemens: I think that it’s good for Arraez’s market that it’s basically Naylor or bust no

Ben Clemens: b/c let me put it this way: you know what you’re getting with Luis Arraez

Ben Clemens: now, it might not thrill you

Ben Clemens: but he’s gonna get on base a little bit, and he’s gonna hit a bunch of singles, and when you rsecond baseman gets hurt for a week he’ll stand there

Ben Clemens: alright everyone, I have to head out and start cooking lunch. Have a wonderful day, and I hope that the rest of the regular season treats you well.