Best Final Seasons, Part Two

Yesterday, we tackled the best final seasons for pitchers. Today, let’s tackle the position players, so we can get to the heart of the question of just how good David Ortiz needs to be to crack one of these lists. The rules and breakdowns are the same as before, so I would encourage you to read yesterday’s post to peep those. Once again, big ups to Jeff Zimmerman for data help.

30-39 WAR

The guys on this list are definitely not household names, but there are some interesting, if also tragic, stories here. Let’s deal with the tragic first. There are six players here because one of them, Chick Stahl, committed suicide during spring training of the 1907 season. He had been named the Americans’ (Red Sox) player/manager over the winter, and something drove him to take his own life. This was surely a big loss for the team, as they had been counting on him to help lead them. He was the fifth-best hitter in the game just a couple years earlier in 1904.

On the lighter side of things, Elbie Fletcher made his way into the majors thanks to a contest held in Boston to see which high schooler was the most likely to reach the major leagues. Think of it as reality TV before TV was a reality. Fletcher actually did make the Braves that year, and while he only garnered four plate appearances, he hit .500/.500/.500, which I also find hilarious. From 1940 to 1942, he would post a 144 wRC+ that was good for ninth-best in the majors. Gil McDougald chose to retire instead of risk being exposed to the 1961 expansion draft. In his final game, he scored the game-tying run in the top of the ninth in Game 7 of the 1960 World Series. Heck of a way to go out, I guess, even though his Yankees lost.

The conclusion of Roy Cullenbine’s career wasn’t tragic in the way that Stahl’s career was, but it was definitely tragic in a baseball sense. In 1947, Cullenbine drew at least one walk in 22 consecutive games. This was a record then, and it is a record now:

Despite this, the Tigers released him following the ’47 season! He was picked up by the Phillies, but they released him before the 1948 season began. This is fairly inexplicable, as Cullenbine is 32nd all-time in OBP. In 1947, he was 22nd! Better than Arky Vaughan and Paul Waner. Even for an era that didn’t know what OBP was, this seems especially shortsighted.

40-49 WAR

We have six players here, as well, as it didn’t seem fair to call Thurman Munson’s 1979 campaign his final one. He surely would have kept playing had he not died in an airplane crash. While ’79 had been the worst of his career by WAR, he was never worth fewer than two wins in any full season he played. He’s still the only member of the Yankees to win both Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player.

Elsewhere on this list, we have two Hall of Famers in Aparicio and Puckett. Puckett didn’t necessarily get to retire when he was ready, but posting a .380 wOBA and 123 wRC+ when you can’t completely see the ball is pretty damn good. Aparicio could never hit that well even with two good eyes, but he was one of the slickest fielders of all time, and his final season was no exception. Even at age 39, he was the fourth-best fielding shortstop in the game.

Brian Downing likely isn’t remembered for playing with the Rangers, if he’s remembered at all. But his final season was pretty electric. Long a full-time DH by 1992, Downing rocked a 142 wRC+ in his swan song and walked more times than he struck out for the 14th time in his career. There can’t be a lot of players who have done that so many times.

50-59 WAR

You might know some of these players. Personally, Will the Thrill was one of my favorite players growing up, even though I almost never saw him actually play. And Bobby Doerr was one of my favorite historical Red Sox players, even though I definitely never saw him play. My dad spoke reverently of him, though. I do remember Chet Lemon, who was forced to retire because of polycythemia (basically, his spleen didn’t work right). Lemon had stopped hitting for power in his last two seasons, and it seems likely that this was a contributing factor. You might know Bob Johnson by his nickname “Indian” Bob Johnson. He was one-quarter Cherokee, and back then it was cool to just call people what they were.

Then there’s this Jackie Robinson guy. His WAR total might seem low to you, but recall please that his major-league debut didn’t occur until he was 28. Twice he was worth at least nine wins. Only 24 other position players have pulled that off, and just four of them were second basemen like Robinson — Joe Morgan, Nap Lajoie, Rogers Hornsby and Eddie Collins. Not bad. Robinson had even better plate discipline than Downing — he walked more than he struck out in all 10 seasons of his career, and it wasn’t even close, recording 740 walks against 291 strikeouts. In the Integration Era (1947-present) Robinson is one of 22 players to amass at least 4,000 plate appearances and strike out 300 or fewer times, and of them Robinson had the fourth-best walk and strikeout differential.

60-69 WAR

Just like in the pitchers list, we have a member of the Eight Men Out, this time with Shoeless Joe Jackson. In his final season of 1920, Jackson finally popped double digits in homers for the first time. When he was kicked out of the game, he had a 165 wRC+, and while you can debate the finer points of his character all day, there’s no debating that he belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame. The last time I checked, it’s not full of choir boys.

There are three other players who deserve to be in Cooperstown: Kenny Lofton, Reggie Smith and Jim Edmonds. At the very least, they didn’t deserve to be pushed aside so quickly. None made it past their first year on the ballot, and it wasn’t close. The trio combined to receive just 32 votes for the Hall, including just three for Smith, who might be the most deserving of the trio. A seven-time All-Star, and twice a top-five MVP finisher, Smith posted a 130 wRC+ or better for seven straight seasons, and in 11 times in the final 14 seasons of his career. He led the league in OBP in 1977 with the Dodgers. He did so while playing stellar outfield defense. His 81 runs saved according to Total Zone ranks 16th all-time. His excellent two-way play was special, as it was with Lofton and Edmonds. Alas, all three were shut out.

Hank Greenberg and Jesse Burkett were a bit luckier, as both are enshrined in Cooperstown. Bully for them. The six players here ranged from a 108 wRC+ (Lofton) to 167 (Jackson).

70+ WAR

I’m going to assume you know why there are six players here. If you don’t, ask someone in the comments.

Frankly, I don’t think I need to recall the careers of any of these players. If you don’t know who they are… you’re probably super young, and I envy that you have your whole life in front of you. Now go read a book.

Instead, let’s talk about their final seasons. They were all exemplary. When Ortiz first announced he was retiring, I thought of the Jones that’s Chipper. Turns out, Jones is a good recent example, but he’s not the best. He played scratch defense at third and put up a 127 wRC+, which is pretty amazing, but as he did for much of the second half of his career, he also missed a bunch of the season, which lowered his WAR output.

Missing a chunk of the season was actually a common theme here. At 144 games, only Mickey Mantle made into a full-ish season. Clemente only suited up for 102 games; Williams, 113; DiMaggio 116; Bonds, 126. They all raked while they were in there though, from DiMaggio’s 118 wRC+ all the way to Williams’ ridiculous 184 wRC+. Williams hit .316/.451/.645. He didn’t get much BABIP help, as his .285 BABIP that season was the third-lowest of his career. He also walked in nearly 10% more of his plate appearances than he struck out. He homered 29 times, including in his final at-bat ever, the landing spot of which is denoted by the famous red seat. David Ortiz has called BS on this, but despite the Large Father’s protestations, it definitely happened. Lord have mercy.

Bonds clocked in with just one fewer homer. He didn’t have the same storybook ending — his final homer came on September 5th. But he did walk 27.7% of the time, which was the third-highest rate of his career, and also the third-highest rate of any player ever. But yeah, tell me more about how Bonds was washed up that season. His 157 wRC+ tells a different story.

Clemente wasn’t washed up either, and it’s sad to think about what could have been. At 4 WAR, Clemente’s final season was actually his worst in a decade, which tells you how good he really was. Had he suited up for the whole season, he probably would have been close to his annual 6-8 WAR output.

Mantle lost his power stroke in his final season. As a result, he was the next-to-last player (and just the 16th player total) to post a 140+ wRC+ with a .400 SLG or lower. As Victor Maitland would say, that’s a neat trick.

…

As it stands now, Ortiz stands a very good chance of landing on the 40-49 WAR or 50-59 WAR list. He’s at 1.7 WAR for the season and 47.8 WAR for his career, so he’s going to be right on the threshold. Just a bit more production and he’ll knock Dykstra off the 40-49 list, and if he lands on the 50-59 list, it’ll be because he’s put up at least 3.9 WAR, which would put him in second place on that list. Ortiz might not run a 192 wRC+ all season, but even if he retired tomorrow, he’s having quite the final season. Let’s enjoy the last few months of it.