Better Late Than Never

Michael Aubrey is a name you may have forgotten, unless you’re a Cleveland Indians fan. The first baseman is a former No. 1 draft pick (11th overall in 2003) out of Tulane University. Now 26, Aubrey is finally in the Major Leagues for the first time – a September cup of coffee.

Aubrey was considered the second-best, draft-eligible college hitter prior to the draft (Rickie Weeks was the top choice), according to Baseball America. The is what BA said at the time:

…Aubrey is a better pure hitter than any other college player in the nation. He projects as a .300-plus hitter with lots of doubles and 15-20 homers in the majors. He has a great approach at the plate and rarely gets fooled.

So, what took so long? What caused Aubrey to take six seasons to get to the Majors? And does he still have something in the tank, or is he a shadow of his former self.

The answer to the first question is: Injuries. In his debut season, after signing for more than $2 million, Aubrey played 38 games in A-ball. The next season he played 98 games between High-A ball and Double-A. Then in 2005 he managed just 28 Double-A games. The 2006 season was even worse, injury-wise, as Aubrey appeared in 14 games. The next year, though, he managed a whopping 65 games despite ongoing injuries. This season, Aubrey was able to appear 97 times during the minor league’s 130-game schedule.

The numbers for Aubrey this season do not inspire a lot of confidence, especially given his position at first base… and this leads us to the answer for the second question above. At Double-A, he hit .282/.333/.456 with two homers in 103 at-bats. He walked 7.2 percent of the time, and struck out at a rate of 11.7 percent. After a promotion to Triple-A, Aubrey hit .281/.328/.418 with seven homers in 285 at-bats. He walked just 5.3 percent of the time, with a strikeout rate of 14 percent.

At Double-A, Aubrey’s OPS was .790 and at Triple-A it was .736. His ISO at Double-A was .175 and .137 at Triple-A. An average ISO is considered to be .120, with most “power hitters” exceeding .200. So it’s clear, Aubrey is not a power hitter. And he doesn’t walk much. And he’s never hit above .283 at Double-A or Triple-A.

That said, Aubrey does have value. A .280 average isn’t bad for a bench player. He also swings from the left side, which gives him more value off the pine. Aubrey was also considered an excellent defender coming out of college so he could be a solid late-game option in the field. A part-time role might also help lessen the injuries that have plagued Aubrey’s career to this point.

All this suggests that Aubrey might be better suited for a career in the National League where bench players have more opportunities for regular playing time. In Cleveland, the first base/DH slots are pretty much filled with the likes of Travis Hafner (albeit apparently in a downward spiral) and Ryan Garko on the Major League roster. Cleveland also has first base prospects hot on Aubrey’s heels, such as Beau Mills, Matt LaPorta (currently playing the outfield), Jordan Brown, and Nick Weglarz (also seeing time in the outfield).

There is no question Aubrey still has value to a Major League club, but that team is most likely not Cleveland.