Big Game James and a Team That Should Have Some

Let’s ignore, for a moment, James Shields‘ actual major-league track record in what one might consider to be big games. We’ve all had fun at his expense, and the playoff ERA over 5 makes the nickname seem ironic. What’s interesting is that Shields has pitched a lot of big games in the first place. He debuted for a team that had never won more than 70 games, and the (Devil) Rays shortly blossomed into something of a second-tier powerhouse. And when Shields got dealt, he got dealt to a team that hadn’t been good since 1994.

The idea was to return the Royals to glory, and after a promising first year, in the second Shields got to start twice in the World Series. Now Shields has joined the Padres, signing for a four-year term, and the Padres’ hope is similar to what the Royals were looking to do: the organization wants to graduate from irrelevance. The Padres haven’t even been sufficiently relevant to be a laughingstock, but a whirlwind offseason has put the team on everyone’s radar, and in that way signing Shields is in large part symbolic. You don’t sign Big Game James unless you figure he’s going to start some. These Padres ain’t the Padres no more. Not the way you knew them.

And there’s a thing about this particular upgrade: analytically, it might be the least controversial. A.J. Preller has been perhaps the most visibly active general manager of the offseason, but while his flurries have generated a good amount of excitement, there have been question marks all along. Many got swept up by Padres fever without appreciating the potential downside of the makeover.

Derek Norris is a promising young offensive catcher, but he’s not nearly so accomplished in the field, and he’ll be trying to replace a quality tandem in Yasmani Grandal and Rene Rivera. That’s by no means a clearly big upgrade.

Will Middlebrooks showed good power with the Red Sox from time to time, but he didn’t show a lot of anything else, and over the past two years, he’s been rated at a little below replacement-level. That’s by no means a clearly big upgrade.

Wil Myers, of course, has a track record of considerable hype, and he’ll be forever linked to Shields on account of the trade, but while Myers had a great rookie season, he was mostly awful as an injured sophomore, and he’s unlikely to be a defensive asset in center field. That’s by no means a clearly big upgrade.

Matt Kemp seems, finally, most of the way recovered from shoulder problems. There aren’t too many people who question his offensive potential. At the same time, his medicals are about as concerning as they get, and lately he’s shown himself to be among the very worst defensive outfielders in the league. That’s by no means a clearly big upgrade.

And Justin Upton? Upton’s been good. He’s been legitimately good, even if he hasn’t quite built on what he did earlier in his career. But then, not only will the ballpark be a challenge — Upton, in a way, is replacing Seth Smith, and Smith was just one of the Padres’ very best players. He’s a fine hitter, himself, so Upton is by no means a clearly big upgrade. An upgrade, sure, but Upton’s no longer got that sheen of perennial MVP candidate.

The Padres also made some additions in the bullpen, and there’s talent there. Every individual move, you could explain. No decision has been absolutely dreadful, and even a few days ago, the Padres were positioned to at least capture local attention for the season’s first few months. But now, on top of everything else, there’s James Shields. And Shields feels a lot more like a certain substantial upgrade, at least for 2015. Shields bumps down Odrisamer Despaigne. He allows the Padres to not have to depend at all on the health and performance of Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson. Shields should make the Padres better by a few wins. He’s the offseason’s most obvious improvement, just a week or two shy of the start of spring training.

Don’t let the timing throw you off. It’s true that Shields signed for less than expected. It’s true that there’s some significance in the fact that Shields had to wait this long to find a new employer. But James Shields today is exactly the same as James Shields two months ago. If Shields had followed the Jon Lester contract by signing his own nine-figure deal, there would’ve been sensible rationalizations. That would’ve been a contract going to the same guy. A lot of this wait has to do with Shields’ agent, and not with Shields himself. As more and more time passes by, teams begin to evaluate remaining free agents less by what they can do, and more by what they can’t. Teams look for reasons not to spend money. Instead of thinking about Shields being so durable, that durability becomes a red flag instead of a green one. What is durability but mileage? What is mileage but wear and tear?

There are two ways to see everything, and Shields in February looks less reliable than Shields in November. But remember: Shields in February is Shields in November, basically. For our purposes, they’re the same guy. Millions or billions of his cells have been replaced by functionally identical cells, so in that sense Shields is very different, but the new cells should operate just like the old ones.

James Shields is the kind of starting pitcher who causes people to argue the definition of ace. The Royals would describe Shields as an ace, because he was the reliable No. 1 in the rotation. There were never any questions about his availability, and more often than not, Shields put his team in position to win. Yet Shields very clearly isn’t an ace like Clayton Kershaw is an ace. He’s not an ace like Madison Bumgarner is an ace. He’s more of an ace than the Padres had, maybe, but maybe he’s actually a lot like Ian Kennedy. On a per-inning basis, it’s not clear Shields is going to be better than, say, Tyson Ross, but Shields has shown more ability to gather those innings, and the most important part of this: the Padres don’t have to care about the labels. It doesn’t matter which pitcher of theirs is the most ace-y. They have them all. They’ll all pitch.

There are two obviously worrisome things. One, Shields is 33. Two, the strikeouts have been declining. At some point, Shields will no longer be good enough to retire big-league hitters, and it stands to reason he’s closer to that point than he was a few years ago. This is why Shields wound up with a four-year contract, instead of a five- or six- or seven-year contract. Let’s run some really simple analyses. Between 1970 – 2010, 61 starting pitchers were worth at least 10 WAR between the ages of 30 – 32. Of those, 27 were worth at least 10 WAR between the ages of 33 – 36. The Padres are paying Shields to be worth approximately 10 WAR over the next four years, and it’s not at all clear he’ll do that. Also, 48 starting pitchers threw at least 650 innings between the ages of 30 – 32. Of those, 31 threw fewer innings between the ages of 33 – 36, even though that window includes an extra year. Shields’ proven durability is a plus, relative to pitchers with less proven durability. Yet he’s still a high-mileage pitcher entering his mid-30s.

And, regarding the strikeouts: in his last year with the Rays, Shields struck out 24% of the batters he faced. Last year, he was barely above 19%. Relatedly, in 2012, Shields ranked second in baseball in changeup rate among starters. Last year, he came in 23rd. Shields has moved away from his changeup, an indication that he doesn’t trust the pitch as much. He’s thrown more fastballs and cutters, and that helps explain the reduced strikeout rate and the increased strike rate.

This should be a useful graph:

Shields hasn’t wavered very much in terms of the rate of his pitches thrown with two strikes. He’s been consistently coming in around 28 – 30%. The red dashed line, though, shows the rate of those two-strike pitches generating strikeouts. After staying between 19 – 22%, Shields just last year dropped under 17%. Here, you can really see the effect of a less reliable changeup. In terms of two-strike rate, Shields was just a top-40 starter. However, by two-strike strikeouts, Shields finished at the top of the bottom third. He was more or less tied with Ryan Vogelsong and Franklin Morales.

Why might Shields be increasingly struggling to find what was his signature pitch? Could be, it has to do with a slightly dropped arm angle. From Brooks Baseball:

Compared to what it used to do, Shields’ changeup in 2014 didn’t have as much run, and it didn’t have as much drop. He wound up with lows in stats like changeup whiff rate, and highs in stats like changeup slugging percentage allowed. It’s not like the pitch was never there for Shields in 2014, as it was instead inconsistent, but to be sure, last year’s version of Shields only somewhat resembled the version the Rays traded away.

But you don’t want to make too much of it. Shields can have success as more of a fastball/cutter guy. He can have success as what he just was. He hasn’t had any problems with his velocity. And, who knows, maybe he recovers his old arm slot, or maybe he figures out how to throw a more reliable changeup from a little lower down.

Put Shields under the microscope, and you can see countless reasons to believe in him, or to not believe in him. It’s almost like he’s a pitcher in his 30s. It doesn’t have to be that complicated, though. Has Shields been more good or bad? He’s been more good. What do good players tend to do? They tend to remain mostly as good, and then decline some. Shields will no longer be supported by the incredible Royals defense, and the Padres’ defense, in fact, is looking pretty awful. Yet Shields is also moving to a more pitcher-friendly ballpark, in an easier league. Shields has faced a tougher slate of opponents than the average over the years, and the NL West should give him a break. As far as late-career destinations are concerned, a pitcher could do a lot worse than ending up in San Diego. By, say, signing almost literally anywhere else.

Because it’s February, you want to be a little underwhelmed. It seems like really good players shouldn’t remain available this long. Shields has his blemishes, and it’s not at all clear he’s going to be worth this contract, especially for a lower-budget team like San Diego. The Padres are also giving up a high first-round pick, and that’s not going to help re-stock a farm system that Preller has in large part shredded over the past few months. In 2016, or 2017, or 2018, maybe the Padres are going to regret all of this. The priority, though, is 2015, and Shields makes the Padres better. Maybe more than any other acquisition they’ve made. They’ve undoubtedly made people care, and while offseason excitement is no substitute for actual-season excitement, this is a jumping-off point. Now, if the Padres start the year with more wins than losses, people will notice.

When new ownership took over the Dodgers, they initially spent like crazy people, to try to prove to the fan base that they wanted to win, and that they were serious about turning the ship around. The plan was to be aggressive at first, and then gradually transition to a longer-term, more sustainable model, once a foundation of success was in place. The Dodgers, I think it’s safe to say, have pulled it off. The Padres might be trying to follow in their footsteps. We don’t know if it’s going to work. Even if it does in the short-term, the Padres won’t have the Dodgers’ financial resources to keep everything running smoothly. The one thing we can say for sure, though: whatever happens in San Diego, people will be paying attention. That’s the real triumph of A.J. Preller’s sleepless winter.