Boston Fortifies Rotation With Bedard
For many pundits, the Boston Red Sox were the clear best team in baseball this year. Ever since a 2-10 start, the Sox have won over two-thirds of their games, with a stellar 64-30 record. They lead the American League in both actual record and first-order (Pythagorean) record, and their 67.8-37.2 third-order record is a full two games clear of the Philadelphia Phillies.
But even the best teams are rarely without weakness, and with Clay Buchholz’s status uncertain, the Red Sox found themselves with some shallowness in their rotation. Sure, John Lackey, Andrew Miller, and Tim Wakefield would have no problem bringing an offense with as much firepower as Boston’s to the playoffs, particularly with an 8.5 game lead on Los Angeles for the Wild Card if they can’t hold their 2 game lead on New York in the East. But in the playoffs, the Red Sox will have to get by potent offenses such as the Yankees and the Rangers, and with Lackey and Miller as the third and fourth options out of the rotation, the Red Sox had a clear need to upgrade.
Upgrade they did, as the Red Sox pulled a three-way deadline deal to add Erik Bedard from the Mariners. To swing the deal, the Red Sox sent prospects C Tim Federowicz, RP Juan Rodriguez and SP Stephen Fife to the Dodgers in order to acquire OF Trayvon Robinson, who was then flipped along with OF Chih-Hsien Chang to the Mariners, bringing RP Josh Fields back as well as Bedard.
It’s fair to wonder if the Red Sox would have pushed so hard for a starter (An earlier deal for Rich Harden was nixed due to health problems. The sun rises in the east.) if not for the uncertainty surrounding Clay Buchholz. The 26-year-old righty was transferred to the 60-day disabled list on Sunday and depending on the results of a second opinion on his ailing back, could be done for the year.
Health is an obvious concern with Bedard, as his 91 innings this season are his most since throwing 182 in 2007. Seeing as his health — or that of any other possible acquisition — over the rest of the regular season will hardly impact the Red Sox playoff odds, Bedard made the perfect target for Boston. They needed a pitcher who could handle playoff-level offenses but wouldn’t come at much of a cost for the future (see Jimenez, Ubaldo).
If he’s on the playoff roster, Bedard is a clear upgrade over Miller and Wakefield, and a good bet to improve on Lackey as well. SafeCo Field deserves an assist for his 3.31 ERA since his trade to Seattle, but he still checks in at a sharp 82 ERA-, and 4.3 WAR (based on FIP) in 255 innings is solid as well. Lackey could very well improve on his poor numbers to date (152 ERA-, 0.7 WAR), as he is coming off a 4.0 WAR season in 2010, but it’s awfully difficult to put a 6.20 ERA in a good light. Miller and Wakefield have been poor, each with an ERA over 5.00 and FIPs to match; Bedard’s superiority should be obvious.
It did take four warm bodies to acquire Bedard, but that’s about it. None of the players moved by Boston appear on Kevin Goldstein’s top 20 organizational prospect list, nor do they appear in our Top 100 Prospects list or top 10 organizational prospect list. This isn’t to say they’re doomed to complete non-productivity in the Major Leagues — the prospects will be covered in a separate post — but the Red Sox don’t lose much from a good farm system and improve their chances at a World Series. Hard to argue with that logic.
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Trayvon Robinson was rated in the top 10 Dodgers prospects by Baseball America, Fangraphs and MLB.com! Robinson had a slashline of .293/.375/.563 for the Albuquerque Isotopes with twenty-six home runs. He’s slugged .585 at home and he’s a good .537 on the road. A switch-hitter with power, a good eye, speed and range is hard to come by. Chih-Hsien Chiang was rated as a top 20 Red Sox prospect who is improving all the time now that he has diabetes under control. Chiang currently has a 338/.399/.647 line with a .431 wOBA. He will end up as a 4th/5th OF and more of a depth kind of guy.
The Mariners gave up Fields who in my opinion was never going to make the Show. He has progressed very slowly and is going to end up a bust. Fields was more a 6th round kind of talent rather then 1st round. Bedard who is a big time injury risk and was not of any use to Seattle for the rest of this season. I think Bedard will struggle pitching in Fenway and also the pressure of the Boston media.
Boston got the pitching depth and LHP it required but is taking a huge risk. LA got a decent back up catcher and a some average relief pitchers but gave up too much in return.
My grades:
Mariners: B+
Red Sox: C+
Dodgers: D
What “huge risk” is Boston taking?
Bedard is a big injury risk and going from LBP Heaven to LHP Hell cannot be a good thing.
The downside is that they are back where they were yesterday, as the best team in baseball. I would not call that a huge risk. I would say it’s a huge upside gamble.
The fact that Robinson is a very good prospect (though one ought to be careful considering his league and park context) has no bearing on the Boston part of the deal, since they did not trade him.
Mariners: A- (for getting a very good prospect for Bedard)
Red Sox: B (for giving up very very little and getting huge upside)
Dodgers: D (for giving up a quality prospect for quantity prospects)
it’s still not a risk if they barely gave anything up for Bedard. You have to risk something for it to BE a risk
I agree with the others. Very little downside for Boston on this deal, as they didn’t really give up much to get Bedard. But huge upside – if Bedard stays healthy they’ve got a massive upgrade. And with the lead that they have they can keep Bedard’s workload to increase the chances of him being healthy at the end of the season.
And, just as for many players who have toiled in the Big Leagues for losing teams, I’m glad that Bedard will have had the chance at least once in his career to have been on a play-off team.
Perhaps opportunity cost? Have to compare Bedard against other SP options that existed pre-non-waiver deadline. Of course there are difficulties with determining the realistic alternatives from outside the Boston FO.
Exactly, Jon. Opportunity cost; that’s the risk the Sox have taken.
They’re already in the playoffs so this move was to bolster their pitching staff for the playoffs. The chance Bedard gets there healthy are so slim, the Sox effectively accomplished very little here. That’s a huge risk given their pitching staff.
Agree somewhat on opportunity cost, but that’s really a separate thing. The grade for not getting Ubaldo is a very different thing from grading getting Bedard was a bad move. And there really wasn’t much out there.
They might have been able to top the Indians’ offer for Ubaldo… but they might not have. Most of their top prospects are in the low minors, and that made them a poor match for the Rockies.
They could have had Wandy, but 29 teams appear to have decided he wasn’t worth the Astros’ asking price.
And what else was out there?
You could instead argue that saving their top prospects for a future move will give them the opportunity to make another blockbuster trade when someone worth it comes along.
“The chance Bedard gets there healthy are so slim”
How have you determined this? Are his knee and shoulder symptoms of some injury syndrome?
Trayvon is doing it in the PCL though. He never had a ISO over .200 (.269 this season) until going to the PCL, which makes me believe the power isn’t legit. Plus he has struck out over 20% at every stop (29.3% this season). A speed guy with decent power who strikes out a lot. I don’t like that combination.
Ned Colletti – the worst GM in baseball:
“You can move people around the outfield. You can move people to the infield. You can’t move somebody behind the plate,” Colletti said. Has Ned forgotten Russell Martin and Carlos Santana were moved from third base?
Epstein made good use of Colleti’s ineptitude, but somehow got taken by Dayton Moore. That has to sting.
Fortunately he got taken by giving up 2 cents to get 1 that might help him a bit more this year. So… a net loss overall, but no biggie.
Having Ned Colletti as my GM makes me want to cry sometimes.
you’re employed by the dodgers? and you read fangraphs? dude, get the memo out!
Chiang is actually a pretty decent prospect.
Fedorwicz, Fife, and Rodriguez are exactly the sort of players the redsox should be trading: may end up MLB players, but won’t be good enough to start for a team with a $100M+ payroll
“Mariners: A- (for getting a very good prospect for Bedard)
Red Sox: B (for giving up very very little and getting huge upside)
Dodgers: D (for giving up a quality prospect for quantity prospects)”
Interesting.
Dodgers: B (One of the 3 might work. They gave up nothing.)
Red Sox: C (they needed a solid 3-4, they got a solid DL candidate, who when healthy is a 2, instead. Redundant to Buchholz situation)
Mariners: B (Chaing is a one-year wonder who can’t field, and Rinson, his best comp is Betemit. It’s not even the 6th worst organization. It may, in fact, be the worst. But they didn’t compromise their playoff hopes by trading him and, who knows, maybe one of the new couple might work.
That isn’t even an internally consistent review. The Dodgers gave up the best prospect in the deal and got back nothing. The Mariners got two viable prospects for 2 months of a non-Type B starter. Boston got a solid starter for prospects of little consequence to their organization.
Yes, I guess the “6th worst” was inappropriate given Cameron’s condition. At least I hope that’s why my post was bombarded. I hope it wasn’t because that many of you think Robinson (Rinson? don’t know where that came from) is likely to play well for Seattle, or any team for that matter – not with that K rate and reported batting approach. Or that it’s less likely that one of three Red Sox prospects will amount to more for LA than Chaing will for Seattle.
And after the Buchholz news, if Bedard does get hurt again, which is likely given his history, it won’t take a genius to conclude that they should have targeted a reliable 3-4 instead. Like, I don’t know… Wandy? and then saved those prospects for a future SS?
So, ok, sorry for the Cameron crack.
Wandy’s almost definitely going to clear waivers because of the contract, so that opportunity probably isn’t lost. And those particular prospects aren’t likely to get them a SS any better than the ones they have or could get with similar prospects, which they also have.
“if Bedard does get hurt again, which is likely given his history”
That’s not how it works. None of his injuries have ever recurred. Had the oblique, shoulder, and knee been spread out over his 7 season career, there wouldn’t be much alarming about it at all.
The worst thing he has going for him is that he hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings in a season for several years. But his shoulder shows absolutely no signs of weakness.
Welp, at what point does a player become very prone to injuries to you? and which is worse, having the same nagging injury reappear time and time again, or to be constantly hit with various ones?
Bedard has had one season in which he was healthy throughout, 2 most recently where he pitched 80 innings, and not one other season where he didn’t miss time due to something. That’s injury prone, ie, unreliable, and I’m arguing that it’s not at all what Boston should have targeted.
As far as Wandy, I have to think that if they offered those 4 prospects for MIL eating a healthy chunk of his salary, they’d have a far more reliable starter today.
In other words, it does appear to me as if they went for the homerun, albeit without a reasonable backup plan (or maybe their backup plan is Wandy – though I doubt it). If Bedard goes down, is this team even a playoff favorite anymore? I guess that would depend on Lackey.
Chiang deserves better than that. He can’t field, but his bat is for real. The diabetes — now under control — is the key to understanding his inconsistent line. Since that was identified, he’s done nothing but rake.
The Mariners should install him in the DH spot and can reliably expect him to clear the low bar of being the best bat in their lineup. He should be a big upgrade for them.
Can’t be any clearer with the moves the Mariners made at the deadline and the draft this year. Jack Z. is playing for a Series run in 2013/2014 and beyond.
If only Jack would spend the money to sign Prince Fielder to DH for the next five years they’d have the potential for an AL West dynasty mid-decade.
Pretty sure Chiang, Federowicz, and Fife are eligible for the Rule 5 draft this November. Given the Red Sox depth at catcher and OF, those players would have caused pain to protect. Probably made this deal a better fit for the Sox.
Why to people keep forgetting that Safeco is a great hitters park for lefties?
Well, not “great.” Much better than it is for RHB’s, but still below average. But yes, as an M’s fan I am happy to see that the two guys we got bat L and S. This could have also been a factor in last year’s Cliff Lee trade, getting Smoak instead of Montero.
The biggest standout for me is Robinson’s OBP the last few years. Considering their park, the Mariners targeting high OBP guys is exactly what they should be doing.
Though from a Sox fan perspective, I’m of the mind I honestly might have preferred just holding on to Robinson ourselves. I know our outfield is crowded going forward, but man I love OBP.
Safeco Field:
Factor LH RH
K 108 110
BB 108 102
HBP 84 108
GB 97 97
FB 90 92
LD 105 106
IF 105 104
1B 105 99
2B 84 103
3B 70 90
HR/BIA 97 91
wOBA 97 97
Where do you find ball park factor splits?
Stat Corner.
“SafeCo Field deserves an assist for his 3.31 ERA since his trade to Seattle”
Bedard had a better ERA on the road this year than at SAFECO (2.16/4.53) and in 2009 it was almost identical. In 2008 there was a big split in favor of SAFECO, but that is offset by 2011. Take all 3 seasons together and he has pitched about the same at SAFECO as on the road.
At Fenway Bedard has a 5.99 ERA, but thats only 6 games, and against the Red Sox. Some LHP’ers get spooked by Fenway, so we shall see how Bedard does. I wonder if they will throw him in against the Yankees for his first start. If so, he might pull a groin before the game or get vertigo.
It sounds like they’re planning to start Bedard against the Indians, and hold Lester back a day to start against the Yankees. And it’s not as if he could manage to suck at Fenway noticeably worse than Lackey or Miller.
Having pitched the same on the road as at home does not in any way indicate he wasn’t helped by his home park.
True. But generally one of the reasons to mention the fact that he was helped by his home park is the possibility that his success level might be dependent on it. The fact that he has enjoyed as much success elsewhere dismisses that possibility.
I live in Seattle, and I can testify that Safeco Field definitely helps all of Seattle’s pitchers. It’s a larger-than-average playing field, and the ball does not carry at all to left-center field. Every game I attend there, there’s at least one drive that’s caught in deep center or left-center where I’m left wondering if that same ball would have been a HR or extra-base hit in a smaller ballpark with warmer, drier air.
Bedard has a nasty curveball. His ability to command that pitch for a strike is basically the key to his success. Bedard is extremely nasty when he’s locating his curve.
Bedard gets into trouble when he falls behind in the count. His curve is not as effective, because batters don’t feel they have to swing at it if they’re ahead in the count. His fastball is pretty hittable if batters don’t have to look for the curveball.
The one thing that could be a real problem with Bedard is his attitude. Bedard is typically hostile and sarcastic towards reporters. If he suffers a bad start and is flippant with the media, things could snowball pretty quick. I know I’m writing on a site that doesn’t believe in “intangibles,” but I believe this is an instance where intangibles could come into play.
LOL..Bedard @ AL EAST
I’ll set the over/under ERA for the rest of the season at 5.15
who is brave enough to take the under?
Bedard already had success in the AL East. I’m not sure if you’re aware of this, but he pitched for the Baltimore Orioles. He pitched well enough for Bavasi to give up 5 prospects to acquire him. I see no reason why he couldn’t pitch well again in the AL East as long as he stays healthy.
But don’t you know that the AL East is super special and that you need to double anyone’s ERA if they pitch there?
Ok, sure, I’ll take the under. Bedard started his career with the Orioles, so it’s not like he’s unfamiliar with the AL East. When healthy, his peripherals indicate he’s still a quality number two pitcher.
The better bet to make is whether Bedard stays healthy enough to pitch into Octover. That’s where I start to feel queasy.
Great trade for the Mariners, above-average trade for the Red Sox given their coming 40-man roster crunch, and for the Dodgers, um… er…
If the Redsox are seriously worried about his health they can give him short starts or occassionally skip him in the rotation and let whichever of Wakefield or Miller fill the gap.
They have to give him enough work that he doesn’t get rusty, but especially come September they can easily afford to give him as much time off as they think he needs. They’re not taking him for a playoff push, they want him for their number three or four IN the playoffs.
Career numbers against the East, sans Boston: 3.98 ERA over 266 IP and a 8.67/3.11 K/BB rate. Better than all Sox starters except Lester (surprise!).
I don’t think Boston fans are worrying about how he’ll fare pitching, I’m sure they’re worrying about him actually, you know, being able to pitch.
.
Uh… what?
Bedard has held the Red Sox to a .601 OPS against in 13 starts and the Yankees to a .659 OPS against in 13 starts. He seems to pitch fine against deeper lineups.
He doesn’t have any teams with appreciable sample sizes (the Rockies hit him really hard, but in only one start) that have really beaten him up: the closest are probably the Twins and the Blue Jays, but both of those came with high BABIPs, so who knows what was going on.
Considering that Bedard posted a 3.83 ERA in 4 seasons for the Orioles, I think anyone in their right mind would take under.
I can’t believe people actually thinks Bedard’s rest of regular season ERA makes a difference, a 5.15 would be a big imrpovement over what their backend starters have been doing while they’ve been winning nearly 20 games a month since April. This trade would be worth it to the Red Sox even if they have to keep Bedard in a clostet with mothballs, wrapped in bubble wrap, and covered with ice packs until October.
The Yankees have a better Pythagorean record than the Red Sox.
Being 9-1 with an 82-30 run differential against the Orioles helps.
What does that add to this discussion?
It directly addresses information in the first paragraph of the article. The discussion is about the article, no?
Pythagorean is a silly curve fit excercise, made to fit the middle of the curve, which neither of these teams fall in.
I’m not arguing for or against the use of Pythagorean record, just pointing out a mistake in the article.
I’m not saying Chiang is anything, but this is why it’s silly to look at pre-season prospect rankings when evaluating guys.
Especially Kevin Goldstein (lol) lists.
I’m not so sure on Robinson. He has a .938 this year in a hitters’ league, but his career OPS is still only .794. And he is striking out a scary 1:3 ABs.
From the RS perspective, I think it was a good use of resources. The rule 5 issues were fairly well known. While all prospects have some value, none of these guys were going to be with us next year, and trading the rule 5 guys in the off-season would’ve been problematic.
IRT health, no doubt about it. For me, if he just ensured us a PO spot, that would be a reasonable return.
Chiang is no one-year wonder. First of all, he got the equivalent of 3rd-round bonus money. He was converted to the OF in high-A in 2009, had a 626 OPS into early August, then 977 in his last 82 PA, which at least held out some promise for the future. Last year his OPS splits by month were 397, 598, 726, 877, 944, and that made him an obvious breakout candidate. His struggles with diabetes and nutrition may be behind some of those splits. And he’s a just plain impressive hitter in terms of bat speed and power.
Here’s something I find interesting about Bedard: his #1 comp on Baseball Reference is Ubaldo Jiminez, and #2 (tied) is Rich Harden. So the Sox looked into Jiminez, almost traded for Harden, and got Bedard. Way to focus, Theo!
Ding fries are done!