Bourn Finds His Identity
Not a lot of things have gone right in Houston this year. Despite an aging, expensive roster, they find themselves non-contenders again, caught in the awkward stage of not winning but not rebuilding either. Never a fun place to be.
However, there has been one bright shining light to come out of Houston this year – Michael Bourn showing enough abilities to make himself a pretty decent center fielder.
When the Phillies sent him to Houston for Brad Lidge in 2007, he was purely a speed-and-defense guy, the classic questionable bat center field type. He could run, but whether he could get on base enough to make it matter was less clear. A disastrous 2008 season, where he hit .229/.288/.300, struck out 111 times, and was worth -0.1 wins in 514 plate appearances didn’t assuage any fears. His defense in center was good but not great, so he’d have to get on base at a reasonable clip to justify his spot in the line-up.
In 2009, he’s done that and more. He’s at .293/.366/.406 for the season, and while he’s still striking out at a decent clip, he’s found the key to success for his skillset – pound the ball into the ground and run like mad. Last year, 29.4% of his balls in play were flyballs, which are almost always outs from no-power guys like Bourn. This year, only 22% of his balls in play have been classified as flys, as he’s traded them in for more grounders and line drives, and his BABIP has soared as a result.
His .370 BABIP probably isn’t sustainable, but guys with his speed and bunting ability (he already has 15 bunt hits this season) can keep their averages on balls in play well above the norm for the league as a whole. Toss in the solid walk rate (10.4%) and some power (38 extra base hits), along with terrific ability on the bases (48 for 58 in SB attempts) and the total package adds up to around an average hitter.
When you have a guy who can play CF (and Bourn can, with a career +10.9 UZR in over 2,100 innings out there) and produce something close to league average offense, you have a pretty nice piece. The +4 win season he’s produced this year is the very top of his potential, but even with some regression built in he’s a +2 to +3 win player going forward.
As a pre-arbitration 26-year-old, Bourn represents something the Astros badly need more of – young, cheap, productive players.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
great title
‘Stro fans are hoping Dave writes about his supremacy next summer. 😉
Erik just wrote this? I don’t understand why you say this is the top of his potential. If it is, that’s hardly a problem, but I don’t understand the reasoning. I wrote in Erik’s post that Bourn could have a Brett Butler career, which is a very fine career. And even then the identity/supremacy references won’t stop.
He’s never hit for power, though; 16 HR in 1812 minor league PA. But he does have good plate discipline, runs well, fields well. Going forward I expect a lot of .280/.350/.380 out of Bourn, which is eh, but coupled with good defense, is solid for the money.
Ichiro Career 20.7 LD% 55 GB% .359 BABIP 12.7 IFH%
Bourn 2009 21.3 LD% 55.9 GB% .367 BABIP 12.7 IFH%
If bourn can stay near his current LD%, and GB%, I don’t see why he can’t continue to post ichiro-like BABIP numbers with his speed.
Yeah, but why on earth would we expect a guy with Bourne’s career numbers to suddenly be Ichiro?
He didn’t say he expected Bourn to be Ichiro. He said Bourn could have a BABIP similar to Ichiro’s because, like Ichiro, he’s fast and he hits the ball on the ground a lot. I’ll be interested to see who is on Bourn’s most similar players list at the end of this season.
Now I just need Bourn to become a great player, opt out of his contract and demand more money so Vegas can put out the over/under on number of baseball articles titled “Bourn”s Ultimatum.”
“caught in the awkward stage of not winning but not rebuilding either. Never a fun place to be.”
Ed Wade has been here before…
Yeah, I’m not sure I get “top of his potential” either. He could potentially reduce his strikeout rate farther and work the count more often–he certainly seems energetic and hungry enough to work at developing in that area. He has also shown growth in his power this year. Furthermore, his batting average has been improving as the year goes on–he’s creeping up toward .300 now and if he keeps playing like this I wouldn’t be surprised to see him reach that mark by the end of the season. All in all, he’s currently in an upward trend, and until he stops improving it’s pure speculation to assume this is as good as he’s going to get.
Bourn is not a pure speed hitter like a Willy Taveras. He can drive the ball deeper and more often than you think. He won’t become a HR hitter, but I think he can improve his slugging percent as he gains confidence and experience. His last year in AAA would indicate that his ISO has some room for further improvement. He was leading the league in triples, the last I looked, and he probably will end up with 30 doubles this year. He stretches some hits which are singles for other batters into doubles. The CFer usually don’t play him deep, and line drives over their head become an automatic double, and sometimes a triple, depending on the ballpark. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has some upside as a guy who could vie for leading the league in doubles.
A speedster who could be a doubles threat with a hint of power… sounds familiar to an Astros fan.
I speak, of course, of Craig Biggio. 19th all time in hits, 6th all time in doubles, over 400 stolen bases…
He came 9 home runs away from joining Willie Mays as the second member of the 300-300-3000 club (300 HR, 300 SB, 3000 H).
I don’t think Bourn will have quite that power, but a comparison to that player in that city is a damn good one to have.