Early NL RoY Favorite: Brandon Belt
When the Giants organization nabbed Brandon Belt in the fifth round of the 2009 draft the selection went by with nary a whisper of appreciation or a ripple of applause. Fast forward less than two years and the first baseman is one of the early favorites for Rookie of the Year in the National League and his presence on the roster has sent 12-year veteran Aubrey Huff from first base to right field.
Already the best selection in the ’09 draft for the Giants (although prep picks pitcher Zack Wheeler and catcher Tommy Joseph have potential), Belt has out-performed first round draftees such as San Diego’s Donavan Tate (who cost $6.25 million), Baltimore’s Matt Hobgood ($2.42 million), Arizona’s A.J. Pollock ($1.4 million), Toronto’s Chad Jenkins ($1.35 million), and Milwaukee’s Eric Arnett ($1.19 million). The Giants prospect signed for a mere $200,000 and will quickly recoup his value if he hasn’t already.
At the time of the draft, the University of Texas prospect had big questions about his offensive potential stemming from a unique batting stance. After going pro, Belt reworked his approach with the help of the Giants minor league coaches. Prior to the draft, Baseball America stated:
“…scouts don’t love his set-up. He bats out of a deep crouch and cuts himself off, reducing his power. A disciplined lefthanded hitter with the size… He uses more of an opposite-field approach and doesn’t turn on pitches consistently.
Oh, how times change. Belt was a monster in 2010. He played at three minor league levels for the Giants (A+, AA, and AAA) before ending the year in the Arizona Fall League where he posted a .442 wOBA in 86 at-bats. That “reduced power” from college was an after-thought; Belt’s power output did not dip below a .244 ISO rate at any level and he hit well above .300 at every level but AAA (48 at-bats). He also posted outstanding on-base rates. He’s not just a powerful bat, either. Belt stole more than 20 bases in the minors in 2010 and is a smart base runner. On defense, he flashes enough leather to suggest that he could develop into an above-average defender before too long.
Currently batting seventh in the Giants’ increasingly potent lineup, the rookie may be up in the fifth hole of the lineup before the year is out. He should team with sophomore catcher Buster Posey to create a potent heart of the lineup for years to come. With their offensive potentials, defensive skills and solid makeups, they are the type of players any team would love to build around.
After the 2010 season, I ranked Belt as the No. 1 prospect in the Giants organization. It was an easy decision and he also came in at No. 16 on FanGraphs’ Top 100 Prospects list published in late March. He’s definitely my early favorite for RoY in the NL, over the likes of Cincinnati’s Aroldis Chapman, Atlanta’s talented trio of prospects Freddie Freeman, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor, as well as Philly’s Domonic Brown (currently out with an injury). Belt will definitely have to hit well to justify his place on the team, not only because he’s playing a position with high offensive expectations, but because Giants fans are going to have to live with Huff’s defense (career -16.4 UZR) in the outfield.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Although I don’t necessarily agree, I would imagine Kimbrel is given serious consideration for the award.
I am waiting 3 more games before I award ROY. Gotta be sure this is no fluke.
I personally feel like 7 games is a good sample size. It’s always been my favorite number.
Don’t be silly. Three is a MAGIC number.
And why is he a “favorite”? “Candidate” maybe, but how could you possibly say this guy is a favorite after only getting two hits in the majors?
Duh, winning!
Um, because he’s a polished everyday first baseman with power and patience and is likely to put up a very good campaign.
These three games aren’t Brandon Belt’s only body of work. He’s succeeded at every level in pretty outstanding fashion. He’s also one of only a handful of rookies handed an everyday job in the NL from day one, giving Belt and Freddie Freeman huge legs up on guys likely to step into more prominent roles later in the season.
OK. You basically reiterated the article. I understand he has good tools and that he is a definite a candidate for ROY, but why is he the favorite over a number of other players (mentioned within the article!) that also have great tools?
In the spirit of this article, I’m giving the NL Rookie of the Year to Dominic Brown. He’s earned it.
Brown had a tremendous 2011 season.
I think you’re both wrong. Somehow Lyle Overbay will travel back through time and collect not just one, but two ROY awards (one for each league, duh).
Don’t ask me to explain time travel. It’ll be nuts, is all I’m saying. No-one (except yours truly) will have been able to say they saw it coming.
It will be even harder for Belt to win the ROY when he’s sent down once Cody Ross is back from the DL.
Not so fast. Exit Nate Schierholtz.
What’s better
Burrell in LF, and Huff at 1st.
or
Huff in LF, Belt at 1st, Burrell on the bench, and Nate DFA’d
Seems to me like option 1 is superior, no?
Burrell and Huff in the outfield together is my favorite. “Balls Fly Free” as the slogan says.
They could draw each other’s chalk outlines in the grass after every game.
Belt at 1B and Huff in LF is a better combination than Huff at 1B and Burrell in LF. The Giants have thought that all along and must have been pretty clear w/Burrell that was the plan otherwise he never would have re-signed for only $1 mil this year. That’s a bench player’s salary not a starting LF’s.
Belt only gets sent down when Ross returns if he suddenly starts looking like an entirely different hitter than he has these first 4 games. Which would seem unlikely given how consistent that performance has been with what he’s shown at every previous level so far.
Actually, Burrell offered to come back at a backup salary way back in August 2010, before the team had an inkling of what was coming up next in September/October.
He had been wanting to join the Giants for a long time, since he was a Giants fan growing up. His agent suggested scenarios of Burrell joining the Giants back when he was with the Phillies, with an offer of him playing 1B if necessary.
I think Burrell saw the “writing” on the wall in that pitching is the Giants forte and salaries were going to be such that they would forego on a, say, $6M contract for Burrell when they could possibly start Ishikawa or Schierholtz instead. He made it easy for his boyhood team to retain him by offering to come back at a backup’s salary early, before thoughts of who to keep came up in Sabean’s mind.
And when he signed for that pittance of a salary, the Giants said that Burrell will not necessarily be a backup in 2011, that he would be in the mix for starting.
Way to early to be calling Belt the favorite for ROY.
The Giants have a scout who saw Belt hit a long HR to dead CF off a 95+ MPH fastball. The Giants likes his plate discipline and tools, but weren’t sure about the power. The scout spoke up in the draft room and said he definitely had the power. The Giants coaches adjusted his swing and the rest is history, at least up to this point.
Addendum: The long HR the scout saw Belt hit was in the Cape Cod League with a wood bat.
Someone tossing 95plus in Cape Cod? Shit, man, sign the guy NOW.
Um….You do realize the Cape Cod League is a summer league showcase for elite college players and 95 MPH isn’t all that unusual, rigtht?
I do, and I also am aware of the value of a 95 plus FB
While it may not be all that unusual at the MLB level. A 95mph fastball at the amateur level is still a big deal.
Also a pretty same bet that anyone throwing 95 does not remain an amateur.
Doesn’t the cape Cod league function as a high level “independent” league pretty much? I also viewed it as a league for college players to show how they would do with wood bats (i.e., as professionals).
I remember Carlos Pena getting a really big career/attention boost from performance in the CCBL.
Projections for Belt are probably weighted heavily on his plate discipline with power and defensive value.
Doesn’t a projection of .280/.375/.475 seem within reason and ROY worthy ?
I thought I saw in SI that Freddie Freeman already won the award.
They weren’t THAT high on Freeman. I think Freeman’s gonna have a Gaby Sanchez-type year at best. I believe in the talent, just don’t think it’s going to come at the big-league so soon.
I thought it was obvious that I was joking.
I saw Freeman on the cover (son’s subscription). Didn’t read it.
No love for Mike Stanton’s .500/.667/1.000 line over 3 plate appearances? That’s a .643 wOBA! Snub!
Not eligible.
Belt: .738 OPS
Freeman: .464 OPS
Danny Espinosa: 1.067 OPS.
Danny keeps this up for 3 more games he has my vote for early favorite.
I was extremely impressed with Belt’s plate discipline and ability to work the count in the Dodgers series. Especially against fellow lefty Clayton Kershaw, and also Broxton.
I heard a stat somewhere that said he was tied for the lead of seeing the most total pitches during the first 4 days of the season. Pretty impressive stuff for a rookie getting his first taste of the majors.
Pitchers will adjust and throw more strikes early in the count
Then he’ll adjust and look for a pitch he likes early in the count. He’s not up there just taking pitches. He’s had enough first pitch swings to suggest he lets it rip if he gets what he’s looking for.
So far his eye looks uncanny.
Then pitchers will adjust and toss more balls. Then he will adjust. then pitchers will again adjust….Jane, get me off this crazy thing!
Kimbrel might have something to say about that. So far he has had 2 appearances and earned 2 saves. In those 2 innings pitched he allowed zero hits, zero walks and struck out five of the six hitters he faced. The guys who struck out looked flat out stupid during their plate appearances.
So yeah, if Kimbrel ends the year with 35+ saves and a ridiculous strikeout rate (possibly breaking the record for strikeout rate in MLB history given 50 or more IP, which Marmol just broke last season)’ it might be hard for Belt, Freeman, etc. to win the award over him.
Absolutely. But let’s see what kind of stuff this kid has on back to back nights in August.
I refuse to vote a failed SP as ROY.
He’s never been a starter.
Well most relievers are failed starters
Unless they’re closers with lights out stuff.
Didn’t we just have another discussion about a mega-talented starting pitcher being used as a closer?
At some point, FG Comm is going to start differentiating between dominant closers and “relievers”.
It’s like calling an All-Star 2B a “failed shortstop”.
“It’s like calling an All-Star 2B a “failed shortstop”. Comparing WAR, it isn’t. Carlos Marmol, best WAR reliever, had 3.1 WAR, 0.1 above Livan Hernandez. Cano and Tulo tied for highest 2B and SS WAR (6.4).
While ultimately I like Belt’s long-term chances as a big-league hitter, the smart money’s on him flunking out of the majors at least once in 2011. Hitters just don’t jump from single-A to the big leagues in less than a year and instantly produce, save for the once-or-twice-in-a-decade types like John Olerud, Albert Pujols, Jason Heyward, and Buster Posey. Seeing how the Giants already struck gold with Posey, I think it’s a bit daffy to think that lightning could strike the same organization twice in a year’s span.
do you apply this logic at the Roulette wheel ?
I’m not convinced on the stolen base potential. 18 of those steals last year were in 77 games in A+ with only 4 in 59 games at AA/AAA. I can see him getting maybe 10 in a full year tops, but that would be a nice bonus if he picks his spots right.
Belt’s presence at first makes the Giants defense a train wreck, and he’s hitting .154 on the season. With every Huff error in RF, Bochy will think harder about switching back, or sitting down Burrell.
He looks good I’ll admit but holy cow long road ahead to ROY.
Belt’s presence didn’t put Huff in RF, Cody Ross’s injury did. Huff in LF is no worse defensively than Burrell and it’s worth remembering that the Giants finished first in OF UZR last year despite Burrell or Huff starting most of their games in LF last year and Guillen and Huff starting almost half their games in RF.
And nobody cares that Belt’s hitting .154 over <20 PAs so far because anyone who's watching can see he's having the best ABs on the team.
FYI, thought you might be interested to know that there was an article by Andy Baggarly in spring training describing how the Giants adjusted Belt’s batting stance by using a video training system showing how a batter’s mechanics differ from great hitters, and why changing that would improve his ability as a batter. http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci_17547212?source=rss&nclick_check=1
He obviously took very well with the instructions.
As well, reportedly Nick Noonan is having great results using this system as well, so maybe he’ll finally have his breakout season.
Cheering for Belt…best wishes for his career!
Most of the 1st round players named that you say Belt has out-performed came out of HS. Not a fair comparison as far as ceiling goes or in general. It means nothing for a college draft pick to out-perform a HS draft pick, regardless of round drafted…. it’s expected.
I wish they would DFA Rowand when Ross comes off the DL. Nate is more useful as a bench outfielder than Row. Belt is staying at 1b, so it makes sense to move Huff to LF, put Ross in right and have Nate come in for late game defense.
Our big problem now is who’s the backup SS? Fontenot? There’s a need there. I’ve been watching (enviously) Jason Bartlett at SS for the Padres. We could use a player like that.. Why, oh why didn’t you get him, Sabes?
Did Chris Shelton win ROY and MVP in April 2006?
Hey, he still has a shot…