Branyan, Pena, and Trading
Everyone’s talking about Adrian Gonzalez as the first baseman that everyone will be chasing this summer, once the Padres finally decide to make him available for bidding. However, with the recent rumblings of the Rays interest in Russell Branyan, I have to think that Carlos Pena is more likely to be the big power hitter getting moved at the deadline.
The Rays are always planning ahead. Branyan is a very similar player to Pena, with all the same strengths and weaknesses (plus one additional weakness – a herniated disc in his back). While he could certainly split time with Pat Burrell at DH, I have to think that the Rays are looking to give themselves the flexibility to move Pena this summer.
If they fall out of the race, it’s a lock he’s getting moved. Headed towards free agency and turning 32 in May, Pena is not the kind of player that Tampa Bay will be paying full market value for. They don’t have the payroll to pay aging sluggers for their decline years.
However, I’d suggest that they may move Pena this summer even if they’re contending, especially if they add Branyan to the fold. If they’re convinced that Branyan is healthy, a platoon with him and Willy Aybar at first base is not a huge step back from what Pena provides. The combination of cost savings and the ability to get value back for him may prove too enticing to pass up, because if they keep Pena until the end of the year, they’re likely to have to let him leave for nothing.
Due to how arbitration and free agency have diverged the last few years, it will be almost impossible for the Rays to offer Pena arbitration, the necessary step to receiving draft pick compensation for a free agent that signs elsewhere. Pena would be able to take his HR and RBI numbers in front of an arbiter and ask for $15 to $20 million, easy. Yet, given how the market has shifted, he won’t be able to come near that AAV as a free agent. The Rays can’t take the risk that he accepts and eats up 30% of their payroll.
So, the Rays face a choice. Deal Pena this summer for value, or let let him leave as a free agent without compensation. As long as he’s still hitting bombs and driving in runs, it’s going to be hard for them to not listen to offers, especially if they have a suitable replacement in house.
If the Rays sign Branyan, I’d suggest it’s the first step towards Pena being traded this summer.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
It’s probably also the 1st step to Burrell being released outright. Only so many roster spots for defensively limited players.
I think that’s a big assumption. He’s on the last year of his deal, and if he can provide the offense he was expected to, I can see him lasting out the year.
True, I’m just wondering how Branyon could fit on the roster…By my count they have Bartlett, Zobrist, Pena, Longoria, Crawford, Upton, Kapler, Aybar, Navarro, and Shoppach locked in. That leaves 3 roster spots, one of which is likely to go to an INF super-util type like Sean Rodriguez and another is likely to go to Joyce/Perez to keep warm for Jennings and platoon with Kapler. That leaves one spot for Burrell/Branyon unless they go with an 11 man pitching staff. I suppose they could get away with that for half a season since they have so many guys with options.
But the question is which contender would need a 1B rental at a high price? The attractiveness of having Gonzalez for multiple years at a low price is what teams are willing to part with decent prospects for. I am not sure the rays could get much for Pena considering the upcoming free agency.
But the question is which contender would need a 1B rental at a high “price?”
Paging Brian Sabean.
Normally I would say that we already have Huff, but being a giants fan leaves me open to these kind of FLM moments
Dave, wouldn’t Pena be a great guy to sign in arbitration and trade, as you outlined last year? I’m thinking the Mets or Red Sox would love to have a bopper on a one year deal,l maybe even at that price. Or would the arb award so vastly outstrip his market value that it’d be impossible to trade him?
Mets make perfect sense, but where in the world would the Red Sox stick Pena? They already have a glut of corner IF/DH types.
Assuming the Rays are still in contention, I don’t see Pena going to the Red Sox.
I’m not so quick to dismiss the possibility the Pena could be offered arb and turn it down.
You’re right, he WON’T get the same AAV, but that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t seek more guaranteed years at a lower AAV of a new FA contract.
Is it crazy to think a team would pay Pena something like $12M for 3 years? Brian Sabean, I know you hate power hitters, but I’m looking at you…
If so, he might decline a 1 year $15M arb award in favor of more guaranteed $$$.
This was still a good piece overall, though. Just my $.02.
I agree with this. Pena needs to cash in before he starts to decline (and he may already be declining). Delaying FA by one more year to get $15 mill in one year may be unwise if he can get $30 million over the next three years.
Way to leave out that Pena is a MUCH better defensive player. It’s not even close.
I wouldn’t say that’s true.
Russel Branyan career UZR/150 @ 1B: +1.6
Carlos Pena career UZR/150 @ 1B: -2.7
I’m not saying to take the numbers as gospel – particularly because Branyan only has about a season’s worth of data at 1B. I’m just saying that reputations aren’t always what they seem.
Branyan moves very well for a big guy, and just started playing 1B regularly last year… given the data we have, and the limited defensive chances at 1B, It’s likely that the defensive difference between the two would be negligible.
Isn’t Pena generally regarded as an elite defensive first baseman? Not that it makes the point any less valid, they would certainly take a hit on that side of the ball employing Branyan instead.
Lots of players are considered elite defensive players without being so.
Obviously. But UZRs accuracy for first basemen has been questioned by people who typically embrace the statistic (Klaw for example), and I believe writers on this site have conceded that UZR may not be as useful for 1B as other positions.
Branyan provided essentially the same WAR in 2009, with better defense. Pena’s a below-average fielder according to Fangraphs’ UZR-based stats. Fans expect him to be about replacement level defensively in ’10, while CHONE says he’ll be below-average. Fans think the same of Branyan’s abilities, and CHONE thinks he’ll be just average.
“They don’t have the payroll to pay aging sluggers for their decline years.”
The days of the Greg Vaughn deal are a thing of the past for Rays fans….
What kind of package could Pena fetch assuming he puts up similar numbers to last year?
I’m guessing maybe a B prospect, an intriguing A ball arm and maybe a throw-in minor leaguer? Any comparable situations you can think of?
Teixeira in ’08?
Teixeira >> Pena.
agreed, but it’s not a dissimilar situation. slugging 1Bman with 2 months to FA. Teixiera yielded Kotchman, so figure a little less for Pena.
Interesting article. The Rays are rumored to be quite interested in Branyan. I think for starters he’d be platooning at DH with Pat Burrell. As you say though, he would offer some flexibility to deal Pena if they fall out of contention or they happen to be in contention and Branyan is healthy. I’d be curious to see what kind of package he’d get. And even though the Giants are getting ripped as a team who could get hosed in a deal, and rightfully so since Sabean is a fool. That said, if they only had to give up one of their SS prospects (Crawford or Adrianza) one of their relief prospects, and a C level prospect I’d be ok with that. Even if they had to move a Kieschnick type, I wouldn’t snap, because even though Pena posts an ugly average, his walks are nice and his OBP is respectable.
I agree with Joe R. The Sox have a glut of corners and I just can’t see how they work Pena into the mix to justify the move.
The Mets on the other hand look like a good fit. Pena essentially becomes Carlos Delgado with less mileage (very similar players at this stage in Pena’s career and where Delgado was when he first came to the Mets). Delgado made $12m last year, so the contract situation would essentially be the same as well, expecting a 3/30-36 deal (if not cheaper from time value.
Depending how the two-headed monster works out for Seattle, should they be in contention this summer I could see Pena being a great addition there. Park isn’t nearly as tough on lefty power and if there’s one thing they lack it would be the type of cleanup hitter that pitchers worry about. I’m fine with Figgins/Ichiro getting on base if they aren’t driven in. 😉
Branyan to Cleveland. It’s all moot.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4928544
Apparently ESPN lists OBP in front of AVG now on player cards.
And I watched a whole episode of Baseball Tonight and was greeted with reasonable answers to questions and overall non-lunacy.
Maybe ESPN is finally stepping their game up.
On that note, this year’s fantasy baseball draft information on ESPN is quoting fangraphs, using BABIP, line drive rates, HR/FB rates, etc. I’m a little weirded out about it, actually…you think you know some large multinational conglomerates and then they go and do something like that…