Braves Acquire Justin Upton
The Diamondbacks have traded Justin Upton again. This time, he’s actually going away. After he rejected a deal to Seattle, they’ve found a new trade partner in the Atlanta Braves, and have crafted a pretty interesting deal that isn’t at all similar to the one they previously tried to make.
In exchange for Upton and third baseman Chris Johnson, the Diamondbacks reportedly are going to receive Martin Prado, Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed, Zeke Spruill, and Brandon Drury. While they previously tried to trade him for a high risk/high reward pitching prospect and a middle infielder who is probably a year away from the big leagues, this trade doesn’t really make the Diamondbacks that much worse in 2013, and appears to be more of a win-now kind of trade.
With Prado, the Diamondbacks finally get the third baseman they’ve been looking for, and a pretty good one at that. No, he’s not going to repeat the +6 WAR season he put up last year, which was driven by an outlier UZR, but he’s got a nice base of skills that should allow him to remain an above average player. He makes a ton of contact and has some pull power that should play well in Arizona, and he’s probably at least an average defender at third base. In his career, Prado has averaged +3.4 WAR per 600 PA — exactly the same mark that ZIPS projected for Upton this year, by the way — and at age 29, he shouldn’t be in for a huge drop-off. The D’Backs probably get an equivalent upgrade at third base to the downgrade they’ll receive in the outfield, and then they also get some more pitching depth and three prospects of some value.
From just a 2013 perspective, this deal probably doesn’t move the needle that much. Both teams received one above average player, and no one else in the deal is likely to make a huge impact at the big league level this year. It’s the years after this one that will determine whether this trade was worth it for both sides.
Prado’s a free agent at the end of the season, and he’s not that different a player from Shane Victorino. Coming off a pretty poor season, Victorino just got 3/39 from the Red Sox. If Prado has a better walk year campaign, he could easily top that, especially considering that the market for available hitters next year is pretty weak. And, of course, if Arizona can’t re-sign him, then Prado simply represents a future draft pick in compensation, and the headliner in the deal becomes Randall Delgado, who is not exactly Taijuan Walker. Even with the extra value teams are placing on draft picks these days, the four prospects in the deal aren’t enough to justify trading away Justin Upton’s age 26 and 27 seasons. For Arizona, this deal likely hinges on re-signing Prado before he hits the free market.
Whether or not that’s possible, we won’t know for a while. But, Arizona’s a pretty nice place to hit, and by making this kind of move, the D’Backs are probably still going to put a good team on the field in 2013. Their pitching is deep and strong, and now they’ve filled their biggest weak spot on the field. Their outfield is now more of a collection of decent players than a huge strength, but their position players should be good enough to keep them competitive, and the pitching might be able to carry the day. The combination of a winning team and a nice ballpark to hit in could convince Prado to re-sign before hitting free agency, and if they can get him signed to a reasonable extension, then this will probably be a move worth making for Arizona.
The calculus is a little different for Atlanta. They almost certainly weren’t going to re-sign Prado after this season, so this is a choice of a three year asset over a guy they saw as a rental. And, it’s also an upside play, as Prado at his best still isn’t as good as Upton at his best, and Upton’s heading into his prime, rather than out of it. While ZIPS mean projection for Upton is +3.4 WAR for 2013, there’s still a decent chance he just goes off and has another +6 WAR season, turning into the superstar that most people believe he can become. With Upton, the Braves are buying upside and team control, and it’s not costing them pieces of their organization that were considered parts of the core going forward.
However, I’m not sure how much better this makes Atlanta in the short term. Prado was likely going to replace Chipper Jones at third base, but now they’re set to have 3B result in a Juan Francisco/Chris Johnson platoon of some sort, which isn’t exactly a stellar combination for a playoff contender. And, as Arizona found out this winter, there aren’t exactly a ton of available third baseman on the market, so turning around and making a follow-up trade to address that problem isn’t quite as simple as it might sound.
But, given the extra two years of team control and Upton’s potential for stardom, this is probably still a move worth making. They consolidated talent into one more valuable asset, and while it costs them depth in the process, mid-level prospects are easier to replace than high quality outfielders under team control through their age 27 season.
Overall, I expect that the sentiment on this trade is going to be mostly pro-Atlanta, as they get the big name player in exchange for an underrated high contact/gap power guy and a group of unexciting prospects, but I think this trade works for both sides. Arizona turns an outfielder into a third baseman, and given their depth at both positions, they’re probably not much worse off in the short term, plus they get some future value in the prospects to offset the chance of losing Prado after the season. Atlanta turns some pieces they didn’t necessarily see as foundational to their future into one big piece, and get to bet on both Uptons living up to their potential as teammates.
I don’t like how Arizona handled Upton’s situation over the last few years, and I don’t know that I agree with their desire to trade away a 25-year-old who is still one of the game’s best outfielders, but despite all the talk about the public nature of the rumors destroying his trade value, Arizona did okay here. They’ll probably come out on the short end of the stick if they can’t re-sign Prado, but now they get eight months to try, and they keep a competitive team together for the upcoming season as well.
Win-win trades aren’t that common in baseball anymore. From my perspective, this appears to be one of the rare instances where both teams made a good deal.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I am a little sad seeing that Prado was my favorite player. And over the past three years Prado and Upton have been worth almost the exact same in terms of WAR.
But if Atlanta wasn’t willing or able to match his contract demands, it makes sense to trade 1 year of Prado and prospects for 3 years of Upton.
However if Upton doesn’t fulfill his ‘superstar’ status, it might be easily a loss for the Braves.
Atlanta’s beat writer said Prado was asking for $12mil AAV in free agency. That’s too much for a position like 3B that isn’t entirely too valuable. The only thing is, this probably means McCann stays, and his bat behind the plate isn’t exactly necessity, either.
I think it’s a good, not great, trade for the Braves. They get a baseline 3 WAR player for a likely ceiling 3 WAR player. I’m confused by Chris Johnson’s reverse split and their intentions on using him with Francisco, but if that platoon is used correctly, I think it will be a 2-3 win platoon, just a notch under where Prado is projected. That is all in relation to this year. Anything beyond, even a Prado extension, will probably just add value to the Braves’ side.
Let’s just hope Delgado/Spruill/Ahmed doesn’t turn out like Feliz/Harrison/Andrus.
Prado was worth almost 6 WAR last year, how is that a ‘ceiling 3 WAR player’.
And who cares what position he plays? Are you saying David Wright or Longoria aren’t valuable because they play 3rd?
Steve… Did you read the article or what? Cameron states, “No, he’s not going to repeat the +6 WAR season he put up last year, which was driven by an outlier UZR”
So? That doesn’t mean he’s a ‘3 WAR ceiling’. It’s clearly a 6 WAR ceiling with 3-4 WAR more likely.
Half of that 6 WAR was derived from UZR considering him an elite left fielder.
He’s already posted a >4 WAR season even with negative Fld…
10.7 runs saved as a LF equate to half of 6 WAR? I mean he was a +17 run hitter. That alone accounted for more of his value than his LF defense.
One >4 WAR season at 29? That’s cute. I’ll take the Upton. Oh, Justin, please.
He’s got 2 4+ WAR seasons out of just 4 full seasons. He was also on pace for another in a third season but only played in 128 games. The other season was marred by a serious staph infection. It’s not unreasonable to think Prado’s true talent is somewhere between 3.5 and 4.0 WAR
What I was getting at, was that while to say that he is a 3 WAR ceiling is ridiculous, however to use last season’s WAR as a rebuttal is also incorrect.
The correct measure of his value has been pretty well covered above.
I hate that argument: their WAR over the last 3 years is about the same. Nice cherry picking of stats there dude. You convienently ignore the previous year, Justin’s first full year in the majors where his WAR was 50% higher than Prado’s (4.8 vs 3.2).
Prado is a slap hitting MI who’s value is completely dependent on his batting average and dubious at best defensive metrics. This is horrible trade.
I like how you mention it was Upton’s first full year in the majors, but leave out the part where he had actually played significantly more games in the majors than Prado at that point. And you’re seriously going to knock Prado’s offensive game like that? He’s almost as good as Upton (111 to 116 in wRC+) and he’s less dependent on BABIP (.317 to .335).
He has a lower BABIP than Upton because he doesn’t hit the ball as hard.
I wasn’t saying you should regress them to the same number. My point was that it’s strange to mention Prado being reliant on average, when his average isn’t BABIP driven, but driven by a low K rate.
I don’t know if it’s possible that I could disagree more…
Do tell…
So, here’s what you do to find out. Try to express your disagreement with, like, an argument (evidence and inferences and such), and we’ll tell you whether there is more possible disagreement left for you.
That’s a clown comment bro.
thanks for sharing your deep and well-considered opinions
Is it possible that this is actually, in fact, Bryce Harper producing such a profound remark
Thanks a lot, Kevin Towers. At least I won’t have a winning baseball team to distract me from the rest of my life for a good while.
Go Coyotes.
This exact same comment word for word was on the mlbtr article written on the trade. Mind-boggling.
This was not a good trade for Arizona. Not enough in return for once a future Superstar player.
“once a future superstar player”? What’s that mean? That they should’ve gotten more because, 6 years ago, we thought Upton would be better than he is? Does that mean Delmon should’ve gotten more, too?
Well, Upton put up 300% of Young’s career WAR in 2012 in a down/injury year, but otherwise, good argument. Really makes one think. Steve’s phrasing was bad. Your argument is worse.
Disregard. Too many BAC (Beers Above Civility). I know what you mean, obviously.
i couldn’t disagree more either… i clearly think Kevin Towers dug himself in a HUGE hole and has totally destroyed that team.
He received a less then desirable package for Upton in a big way, evidence by the SEA one that got shot down.
That team handles players in a very holistic way that impairs growth and for Justin’s sake im just glad he doesn’t have to live with that anymore.
Come on, what do you expect Towers to do?
He’s leaving tomorrow for his vacation in Africa, so he had to take the best deal that was on the table today.
Fans just don’t understand the pressure GMs are under when they’ve their big african safari is non-refundable. Don’t you get it fans, NON-REFUNDABLE! What, did you expect him to just leave Upton on the team in chance he returns to form and increases his trade value?
Why was it a certainty that Atlanta wasn’t going to re-sign Prado? I have seen multiple reports about them exploring an extension with him. That extension probably would be in the same ball park as what Upton is making so they obviously had the financial flexibility to make it happen if they could add Upton’s salary over the next couple of seasons.
Mark Bowman said that Prado seemed to be asking for a $10+ million per year contract and the Braves didn’t want to go that high.
What is the justification for signing BJ to $15 million a year, while Prado isn’t worth $10 million? I don’t understand how BJ can be considered more valuable.
DOB said that Prado was seeking $12m AAV on an extension and the braves weren’t willing to go that high.
Oh and BJ is more valuable cuz he has power and plays a premium position. cash digs the long ball, especially from SS,CF and C
Nothing is ever 100%, but it’s clear the Braves would’ve rather paid Heyward than Prado. Prado would’ve taken more than a 2-3 year deal, and Heyward has only two years of arbitration before free agency, at which point as a 26 year old he would command well in excess of 20 MM / year.
Exactly. Prado was and is a pretty darn good player. But for a Braves team that doesn’t have the liberty of extending their payroll to keep the rest of the team together, they apparently identified him as one that would have to be cut eventually.
“he would command well in excess of 20 MM / year”
I’m not certain of this. He derives a fair share of value from walking and getting on base, not from hitting 40 HR (at least not yet), and having a low batting average while drawing walks has gotten him benched for George Costanza (or whatever) at times.
Not saying that he shouldn’t get 20 mil per, just that some of his skills may be somewhat undervalued by certain GM’s looking for 40 HR and/or a .300 BA.
I’d assume that the Braves would have wanted and tried to bring Prado back on a contract they consider reasonable, but he’ll likely be looking for a 4-5 year deal, hitting free agency for the first time at 30, as he didn’t come up until he was 24-ish. So I don’t think its that Atlanta wouldn’t try to bring him back, but rather that they wouldn’t want to commit the dollars to do so for that length at that age. Even if Prado took a discount to stay, he’d probably still be looking for a 4 year $45 mil deal. You can only sign so many of those guys, and Atlanta has to figure out catcher soon, and be concerned with the upcoming arb years of Heyward, Freeman, Beachy, Medlen and Kimbrel.
Still, it’s ugly to think of the 3B situation for the Braves over the next 3+ years, after 16-ish of Larry Wayne over there. #spoiled.
While we’re hear: Arizona could be a kind of killer defensive team, outside of left field (and Kubel’s not exactly Ryan Klesko out there). They’ll be a fun team this year. Am looking forward to Dodgers fans learning to hate Cody Ross as much as Atlanta fans did #BravesKiller.
#annoying
Enough with the stupid hashtags….
Prado’s agent informed the Braves that he wanted a 4 to 5 year extension that averaged $12 million / year. The Braves were not comfortable with paying Prado $12 mill / year especially considering his current age.
My opinion, anytime a team has a tradeable player in his free agent year that refuses the team’s offer pre season, unless he is THE player that puts the team over the top in regard to the playoffs, they need to trade him pre season to get his highest trade value.
Example: Texiera was offerred $20 mill / year for 6 years before the start of his free agent year – he refused. The Braves knowing, due to salary restraints that the $20 mill / yr – 6 year offer was their best should have traded him immediately. Instead they waited to the deadline and got players that never worked out in Atlanta.
Texiera was an important cog in the Braves team that year but the overall make up of the team was not play off caliber. The Braves would have been better off trading him
Prado, a very important member for the Braves is not the difference between them going to the playoffs or going deep into the playoffs. The Braves need additional performance to make that happen. The Braves are betting on J Upton’s upside being realized. The difference between Upton’s upside and Prado’s is enough of a difference to change outcomes in a playoff scenario.
Sometimes trades work out the way the GM imagines, sometimes not. The Braves $95 mill +/- salary requires that they take some reasonable chances to thrust themselves deeper into the playoffs.
If J Upton has a mediocre year the Braves can still make the playoffs, as they probably could have with Prado. But if Upton has a great year he could help propel them deep into the playoffs.
The Braves now are a pitching / defense oriented team with good upside offensive potential.
Good offensive upside potential?…where have you been? Heyward, BJ Upton, Justin Upton, Freeman, McCann, Uggla…these are great, proven, all-star caliber hitters. This isn’t the Royals of 2012. At this point, with an a staff of Hudson, Medlen, Maholm, Minor, and Teheran looking poised to open the 2013 season as your top 5, the offense is far ahead of the pitching in terms of talent, production at the major league level, and even upside IMO.
Seems a touch light, just because of the team control. I think you;re right that a reasonable extension for Prado is the key to Arizona winning this deal — unless the go on a deep playoff run this year or something.
Or Towers could have signed Prado as a free agent and kept Upton for 3 years. You get what I’m saying? That the odds of cheapskate Kendrick anteing up for Prado at seasons end are nil either way?
I think this is a great move by Atlanta. They have an excellent outfield in Upton, Upton, and Heyward.
I was just thinking that. Wow.
The road to Cooperstown is littered with OFs who didn’t fulfill their potential. Upton the Younger could still “flop”, relatively speaking. I’d like his chances better if Bobby Cox still ran the team. He seems like he needs a certain kind of manager to get there. Here’s hoping he does. Would love to see Heyward and Upton come real together. Reminds me of the story of the Braves missing out on Willie Mays because they wouldn’t give him a $2500 signing bonus. For want of $2500 we missed out on two decades of Mays and Hank Aaron in the same outfield. Thanks, Lou Perini.
Up, Up, and a Hey!
Damn – nice work mekias
Yeah, he didn’t invent that.
Can’t they sign Bossman Sr. and get rid of that Heyward stiff, so they can go Upton, Upton, Upton?
I prefer New York.
Sounds like a law firm, not an outfield.
Agreed. This, to me, is a _much_ more reasonable deal for the acquiring team, Atlanta, than the Seattle pratfall that was called off. Upton’s variability is a risk, but Atlanta can work with that, and has him for three years. Even Upton’s mean projection is good, given his D and other attributes. Atlanta could survive a down year in there. If they get a 6 win season out of J. Upton, or even two, its a major payoff. They had to give up a fine player to get him, but he was the one they figure to be moving, and Prado only had one year of control left anyway. The rest they gave up, Stuff, is mostly a little rotation depth, which the open market can fill about as well. All in all, a good balance of give up to get for Atlanta.
For Arizona, it all comes down to whether they sign Prado long-term. If yes, then it mostly grades out. If not, then it’s not pretty—but they’d painted themselves into a corner by deciding to deal Upton, so there it is. Arizona didn’t have to get a major leaguer back, given that they had a too full outfield already, and it made sense for Towers to try to get high-projection prospects on the comeback like he’s been trying all winter. Only problem is, Towers set the price so high only one set of greater fools geeked, an thankfully for the Mariners Upton said no. Given what Arizona settled for, it’s only more evident what a huge overpay the Seattle package was. Yes, since they were _prospects_ one nowadays has to give up for for ‘certainties’ of major league regulars. But the package of prospects Seattle put on the table grades out as much more upside than the package Atlanta closed the deal on.
I’m glad we won’t have to talk bout this anymore. Good luck to Upton to show what he’s really made of; Atlanta will be an optimal place to show off his game, and he’s got a reasonable shot at postseason play also.
excellent name for a law firm as well.
Hey, the Mathis trade was a win win trade. The Blue Jays won by getting all the Marlins players, and the internet wins by getting another valid reason to make fun of the Marlins and post lots about change in the system. Everyone’s a winner!
Are we talking about Jeff “Warm Lettuce” Mathis?
Now that guy really wears that uniform. And the way he holds up the glove? Old school!
They don’t call him “warm lettuce” for nothing.
Not just “Warm Lettuce,” he’s “Hot Lettuce.”
I’m kind of in the Keith Law camp with trades like these, where you are trading for the 1 year left on his contract, even if the player is willing to do an extension (such as the Dickey deal).
I’m usually a big fan of Law, but I totally disagree with him (and you!) about this, especially in the Dickey deal. Its pretty clear that Toronto would not have made that trade without the extension, so why is it reasonable to discount it (you have to take into account the $ cost of course). It is far from certain that a) Dickey would be available for that cost and b) he would choose the Jays if they waited. The Jays got certainty in the trade they could not have got otherwise, its ridiculous not to factor that in.
Same here. I don’t understand the point Law is trying to make on the Dickey trade. If the Mets had signed Dickey to the same exact contract the day before the trade, Toronto would have been trading for 3 years of control. How is that any different than Toronto signing him to the extension the day after the trade? Net result is the same, and there’s virtually no way they would have signed him to that contract as a free agent next winter.
I would day this case is less clear however, since (we assume) no extension is agreed. You might have a better chance of signing Prado long term if he is already with you than if he plys his trade elsewhere, but its certainly of less value in the trade
Towers has stated that Prado’s willingness to discuss an extension was the only way the deal got made. If Prado’s agent had said that they were going to wait and test the Free Agent market the deal would not have been made.
It was also stated that discussions with Prado’s agent about an extension have already begun.
I agree generally, the cries of “only good if you extend him!” whenever there’s a trade usually make me cringe. It’s the contract, not the player.
However, you also shouldn’t discount the value of signing him to a well…discounted extension. If he’s extended soon, they’ll probably be paying substantially less for Prado in the future than they would have had they signed him after 2013. That said, we haven’t really seen the effect of the new CBA on this situation yet. Prado’s the type of player who might get screwed by qualifying offers.
Indeed, I think once the extension talks broke down between Prado and the team that Frank Wren thought, “hmmm, if I make him a QO, he might take it as it’s more $$$ than he gets for 1 yr of FA, but I can’t let him go and not make him an offer as we need the draft pick” so he decided to get value from him now.
The DBacks wouldn’t offer Big Donkey arbitration, they ain’t making a qualifying offer to Prado. Next years offer will likely be around $14M, Kendrick doesn’t write checks that big. Prado gets moved at the deadline.
As a Braves fan I love this trade. Third base does look awful. Anyone know of a veteran third baseman that might be available? [cough] Chipper [cough].
How about Aramis Ramirez? Brewers probably aren’t going anywhere.
Why would you say that? The finished with 83 wins and blew 20 saves.
29 blown saves, but who’s counting?
signed
A Brewer fan
If you entice Chipper into coming back, who’s playing third the 70 games he’s on the shelf?
The backup third baseman.
I wasn’t happy to see Prado go, even less so with us getting Chris Johnson. His career WAR is 2.0 per Fangraphs, -0.8 per B-R. Maybe Francisco gets more AB in a platoon? Meh.
Oh, for God’s sake. I didn’t care when Towers was giving away his team’s treasure, until he started giving it away to the hated Braves. It’s like watching the idiot in your fantasy league trade his team into irrelevancy — you only protest the trade that helps the guy chasing you in the standings. This is a terrible trade for the D’backs and for the NL East. Prado is a capable 3rd, above average hitter, versatile supporting player, but not a star. Delgado is likely to remain a mediocrity, and SP is not a position of need for the D’backs anyway. None of the three prospects move the needle for me (what’s Ahmed’s upside — Mark Lemke? Spruill could be the second coming of Joe Saunders — wow. I’m disgusted. I protest this trade.
I think you’re not appreciating what a really dominant defensive second baseman Homestar Runner Mark Lemke really was. And Ahmed is a legitimate SS who can stay on the position without a problem and should have more contact and more gap power than Lemke. Legitimate up-the-middle defenders who aren’t ciphers at the plate are real commodities. We just watched the A’s, Red Sox and DBacks’ search for them this offseason.
If Ahmed could hit that would be a valid point but he cant
Whoa someone who knows about the homestar runner that is the Mark Lemke, respect.
That li’l monkey-face was a cute mascot, and he tormented the Phillies all right, but he was not a good ballplayer if you trust his career OPS+ of 71. Maybe Ahmed can do better.
As a Braves fan, I hate seeing Prado go but understand and like the move. However, for 2013, I agree with Dave that it doesn’t make them much better. They plugged the hole in LF by creating one at 3B. Dave O’Brien from the AJC thinks that the Braves may have another $10 million or so to spend this year, so maybe they aren’t done and can still get a decent 3B.
Even with the hole at 3B, I think it’s a move the Braves had to make. When you take into account the age and contracts of Upton and Prado, it just makes sense.
Doesn’t this just open up the dialogue for Chipper to come back to play 3B next year?
Realistically, no. He’s done, and I haven’t seen the slightest bit of reporting to suggest it would be possible to change that.
How could there be reporting when this deal just happened hours ago?
I’m saying that this move opens up 3B, Chipper plays 3B, the Braves team has dramatically improved from the last one, and he was excellent last year…I’m not going to be the first or last person to mention this. We are going to hear this up until the middle of the year, now guys like Oswalt have pioneered the “veteran half year” players.
Replace Spruill with Tehran and this deal is air for both sides.
How Tehran wasn’t included is just baffling. Why even trade Upton at all if you’re not getting a teams #1 prospect? Towers has done a heck of a job trying to get himself fired this offseason.
Delgado and Teheran really aren’t separated by all that much and Delgado may actually be the better fit in AZ because of his superior GB tendencies.
In terms of ceiling, they are separated by a whole hell of a lot.
Not that much honestly. Delgado has just as much velocity, a good 2 seamer (unlike Teheran), and his change is almost as good. I underrated Delgado’s ceiling to until I really watched him pitch. He’s a #2/#3 if he can just get his command out of the stretch to a level comparable to what it is from the windup.
Tehran is definitely a better arm than Delgado, although Delgado will be a nice #3 on a good team. Tehran’s ceiling is ace, Braves fans have to be so happy at this deal, and AZ fans should really look for another team to follow because this bounty for Upton is borderline insulting to the fanbase.
Teheran’s upside is more #1/#2 than ace. He’s still a 3 pitch pitcher at this point and the curve isn’t much better than average.
It wouldn’t be his first time.
I don’t think its a given that the Dbacks are going to play Prado at third, or that he would be better there than Chavez. Its more likely that Prado is going to be a utility guy.
If you’re really not sure that Prado is better than Chavez, you’re seriously underrating Prado.
Declare your interest, Nitram.
Can he play at ss the whole year?
Chavez/Prado probably better if they can pull it off defensively.
The most important thing is that Towers got this done before his vacation.
African Safaris are NON-REFUNDABLE! Why can’t you people understand that?
I have a few major thoughts on this.
1. Arizona had to trade Upton given everything that has transpired.
2. Given that they had to trade Upton, this was a win-win trade.
3. Arizona erred by putting themselves in a position where they had to trade Upton.
Arizona never had to trade Upton. Arizona never had to bad-mouth Upton.
Justin Upton was going to show up for work as usual, and work his ass off to prove last year was injury related, and to shove it up Towers and Kendrick’s behinds.
This Upton has never given less than his best.
you obviously don’t know justin upton
What’s the impact to the 2013 Braves lineup? Brings more power from right side, but there’s a potential for several players with a +20% K rate
As long as they hit well otherwise, it shouldn’t matter that the lineup is loaded with high K hitters. Although it will probably give Strasburg a couple of eye popping games.
according to Dave O’Brien, the Braves still have around $10 million that they can spend this year…so they may not be done yet, especially since they need a lead-off hitter
at what position? i guess theoretically 2B and you can move uggla to third, but no way that really happens
that is a good point…maybe they’ll go after Bonifacio and put him at 3B
that would not be an upgrade over juan francisco
Uggla does not have the arm for 3rd base. Uggla is stuck at 2nd. He does less harm there than he would at 3rd, and his offense is at least well above average for 2nd base.
does anyone believe chris johnson’s reverse platoon split? cause if he can’t hit lefties any better than he has, he’s not going to be any use in a platoon with francisco. and if he plays over francisco full time, this might actually make the braves worse this year. cause i mean, chris johnson is awful.
I believe his split was normal in the minors.
Sometimes rumors pop us because they’re actually so. If Justin Upton is lazier than most all the other Major Leaguers he competes with, he’ll never get any better than he is now. Then Atlanta will ‘lose’ this trade, big if any one of the youngsters surprise.
‘Work Ethic’ is a real thing, especially in a hyper-competitive world such as MLB. Maybe Justin has a sufficient one, but that remains to be seen.
“Work Ethic” is a real thing. So is being “Injured”.
Perhaps Atlanta is hoping that sibling rivalry will spur both Uptons to their full potential. If that does happen…look out.
Justin is clearly a hard worker, and a guy who willingly played through a variety of injuries last year.
Dave, Prado won’t net the d’backs a draft pick unless they sign him to $12+ million dollar deal. He only made about $4.75 last year.
You’re also assuming Prado will be fully healthy the next three years. I’d be willing to bet the player who’s over 4 years younger will be the healthier one. This is just a god-awful trade on az’s part. Tho it is marginally better than the all prospects deals being throw around here lately …
I also do not think that it’s a given that the Snakes will make a qualifying offer to Prado
The only season Prado wouldn’t have been worth the qualifying offer (excluding seasons where he played less than 50% of the games) was last season when he had to deal with a serious staph infection that clearly affected his play. He averaged a WAR of roughly 4.5 in his other 3 full seasons.
Kendrick won’t pay for the qualifying offer.
Maybe, but it would be stupid not to, especially considering Prado’s age and the fact this is his first chance at long-term security. I doubt it matters though because I see an extension before they even get to that point.
The Diamondbacks will almost certainly make Prado a qualifying offer assuming they dont extend him. Third base is incredibly thin. Even if Prados agent thinks he will only get 9 or 10 million in free agency he will decline that for a long term offer.
Honestly, I think it’s a big win for the Diamondbacks. Upton is good, but I don’t think he’ll ever turn into a true superstar. And he has benefited from playing in a great hitter’s park.
…and expect to get a king’s ransom for him.
this is clearly a ploy by Liberty Media to save money by only needing to print one batch of Upton jersies for BJ and Justin, and one batch of ‘Johnson’ jersies for Reed and Chris
“Line up, line up! Get your Chris Johnson jersey here! Best prices in town. Cannot be beat. Get the tee all your friends will be envious of with new Braves superstar Chris Johnson!”
Need 3rd base? oh oh, pick me!
This was my first thought too. I’m not up to speed with the value of prospects versus MLB talent but plenty of you on here are. What would need to be added to make a Headley for Teheran deal work?
If that deal is bad for Atlanta, could they get Casey Kelly or some lesser prospect than Teheran to make it even?
If that deal is bad for San Diego, Atlanta could throw in another prospect or Juan Francisco to the deal?
I know someone here could iron out the details to make it work for both sides but I think a Headley/Teheran framework makes sense.
Time for Turner field to prove how invaluable Justin Upton really is/was.
The Diamondbacks would have been much better of with that massive overpay, Seattle package.
i do not think that word means what you think it means.
Long time Braves fan and I like this deal. They didn’t give up either of what they regard as their two best pitching prospects (Teheran and Graham. While Prado was one of my favorite Braves, you cannot get something without giving up something. I realize that sabermetrics has value, but sometimes I think people get carried away with it.
From my persective, in the final analysis, for the Braves this boils down to would you trade Prado for Justin Upton? Sorry sabermetricians, this is a no brainer.
Who are you even arguing with?
The Braves just traded for Justin Upton, didn’t give up Simmons or any of their top 3 pitching prospects, and retained the salary space to add another major league player. I’d say Frank Wren is feeling pretty pleased with himself right now.
How about this lineup?
1 Simmons SS
2 Heyward RF
3 Upton LF
4 Freeman 1B
5 Uggla 2B
6 McCann C
7 BJ Upton CF
8 Johnson 3B
I don’t see BJ leading off with last seasons .298 OBA and 26% k-rate. Simmons probably won’t strike out as much and has decent enough walk rates
The top four seem likely, but I think after Freeman it’s more likely to be BJ Upton, McCann, Uggla, Johnson/Juan Francisco/whoever plays 3B.
One thing BJ brings consistently is speed. Not sure you want to bury that in the 7-hole behind cogs like Freeman/Uggla/McCann.
Teams are platooning handedness now, why not lineups? I’m sure there are some starters, or parks, or whatever, when BJ could handle leadoff.
First off, bat the pitcher 8th – which is what ALL NL teams should do. And if you are worried about the LOOGY, then go with.
1. Simmons
2. Freeman
3. Heyward
4. J.Upton
5. McCann
6. Francisco
7. Uggla
8. Pitchers Spot
9. B.Upton
B.J. Upton then works as a leadoff man who gets less PA. The simulator liked this lineup the best. It still has lefties batting 2-3 and 5-6 so there are some minor LOOGY problems, but…
Disagree. Win-Win trades will be the norm among front offices once Dayton and Amaro are both fired in six months.
Ruben Amaro must be Spanish for Dayton Moore.
You learn something every day.
First B.J., then Justin. Please tell that Kate is next on the Braves’ list. 🙂
I’m just hoping that if Justin Verlander marries Kate Upton, he takes her last name.
I think Upton will be a star, he turned it around at the end of last season, and posted a 6 WAR season before that.
Not enough is being made of Delgado in this trade. He’s close to ready for the major leagues. At worse they got a solid #4 or #5 pitcher. Losing Delgado hurts.
In fact, he is so close to being ready, that he was in fact a decent major leaguer last season.
Nice job, Braves. Here’s hoping you don’t sign him to an extension so that the Evil Empire can swoop in and get him after his first MVP season.
You guys think they ever dressed up as the Super Upton Bros. for Halloween? Jason Heyward has sort of an intimidating Bowser quality to him. Dan Uggla can be Toad.
I’d be curious to know what the final Texas offer was to Arizona.
What number will Jus10 Up10 wear? How about 01?
If Dave is going to assume Prado will net a pick (via the QO) if he walks, don’t you have to assume either:
A) The Braves would have netted one too had they held onto Prado and not done this deal?
B) The DBacks might actually net a pick if they were crazy enough to offer Upton a QO when his deal is up?
I think best case there is no change from the DBacks perspective (except the delay in the comp pick), and there is a chance Prado wouldn’t get an ~14mil QO, so there is a possibility this is a net negative for them. At best they traded a guy who almost certainly would have gotten a QO heading into FA for one who MIGHT get one.
Seems like an attempt to spin the return package up…. the cynic in me thinks this is to make the SEA deal (and Jack Z) look like it wasn’t as bad as people seemed to think it was.
“If they were crazy enough to offer Upton a QO when his deal is up”?
Save some of dat gud shyt for the rest of us, bro.
George W. Bush did 9/11
oh my god it all makes sense now.
This deal is going to look awful for the DBacks when Upton goes all Barry Bonds/Frank Thomas on the NL for the next decade, while playing for the Braves.
Agreed 100x over
When you consider Justin Upton is not even in his peak years it’s a good deal for the Braves, on the field at least.
I think people aren’t recognizing how barren and miserable the 3B market is. If Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco don’t pan out the Braves will be paying through the nose to get Headley or someone else.
On that note, Prado will get paid $11-$12 mil over several years. Remember this is the market that paid Kevin Youkilis $12 million for a year and Jeff Keppinger $12 mil over 3.
I bless the rains down in Africa ….
Good luck bro, not sure I recommend Timbuktu this time of year, AQIM and all.
unless you really want some serious WAR
Or maybe Towers is heading out there to bring back the newest Upton
I recommend Timbuk3. Oh god they were clever and hip. I mean, look at that name!!
It’s funny that Dave wrote this article basically saying Prado for Upton is a wash. I’m sensing there is probably still a little bitterness that Upton turned down a trade to his hometown team. I’m sure that the tone of the article would be a little different if he was headed to Seattle.
Oh god… Based on the past few seasons, there hasn’t been a big difference between the players. There is a clear advantage for Upton for years past next. But for next season, there really isn’t that much of a difference.
Dave wasn’t exactly disappointed that the M’s deal for Upton fell through.
I like this trade for Arizona not the Braves. As a Nats fan I am happy with this trade. The braves now have a huge gaping hole at third base. A hole probably big enough to keep them from the playoffs. They added a marginally better player in the outfield over who they would have played there (two wins maybe probably one win). The took chemistry away and added a problem player next to his problem player brother. I do not see the braves as anything more than an 85 win team now. So that makes me happy!!!
Forget salaries, the Braves are a better team in 2013 with Bourn+Prado than Francisco/Johnson+Upton, right?
Why does this particular comp matter?
because that was a plausible option as well, from a talent standpoint.
You really, really shouldn’t be happy. The Nats are still the best team in baseball, but this trade means that the Braves will make a fight of it.
As a fellow Nats fan i say you are way off base….Look at the teams on paper and the only advantage the Nats have is starting pitching, which the Braves have enough to be good{and even better if Beachy somehow recovers quicker than expected} Its not going to be a cakewalk by anymeans and if you can’t see that this helps Atlanta, you are crazy…The Braves got rid of the 3rd base version of Ichiro, good d, slap hitter….That Line-up is gonna be tough and if it comes together for them they are looking at 95-100 wins…Its gonna be tight..
It’s mind-blowing how shortsighted people are when they refuse to look at things like age and experience and live and die by WAR, which isn’t a be-all-end-all stat because UZR needs 3 years of data and for some really stupid reason fangraphs doesnt use an average, it using the single year total.
Seriously FG, whatup with that?
Just so I’m clear: you’re saying that the addition of “two wins maybe probably one win” will make the 94-win Braves an 85-win team? Yeah, I’m not that clear.
Player A’s WAR
2012 – 2.1;
2011 – 5.7;
2010 – 1.4;
2009 – 3.8;
2008 – .7,
2007 – negative .6.
Player B’s WAR
2012 – 5.4;
2011 – 1.8;
2010 – 4.9;
2009 – 2.8;
2008 – 1.5;
2007 – 0;
2006 – negative .6
I dont think this is all that great of a deal for the Braves. I have read that Justin Upton’s contract is 10 million, 14 million and 14 million. He is Player A above. Looking at his WAR totals over the past 5 years, and
assuming a free agent WAR is 5 million per, Justin Upton’s 2014 and 2015 do not like a great deal.
It’s slightly misleading posting it like this. Upton is entering his prime as Prado leaves it.
Having said that, Martin Prado is tragically (or criminally, if there’s such a thing) underrated and has been for a number of years. No argument there.
WAR is so damn misleading and overrated, its nuts….What I see is a 25 yr old CF who with no injuries could leave your WAR analysis as a baseless afterthought…Do you consider a menacing injury into your WAR caculation?? Do you also consider the “change of scenery” factor?? Do you consider Prado is about to turn 30 and if this website is your bible, then you would have read the artical about players in their age 30+ years declining and declining quickly…WAR isnt the answer for everything…
Assuming Justin Upton gets 15 War over the next three seasons, and again assuming 5 million per WAR, the Braves get 37 million of value from the Justin Upton portion of the trade. Assuming Prado and Chris Johnson get WAR exactly to their contracts, that means the Braves get 37 million of value for the 4 prospects they sent to the Diamondbacks. That seems pretty decent. If Justin Upton gets 9 WAR over the next three seasons, the Braves 7 million of value for the 4 prospects.
I think it is decently possible that Prado gets more WAR than his contract, and that Chris Johnson gets less WAR than his arb year contracts.
You are literally saying a pre-prime Justin Upton is not as good as leaving-rime Martin Prado. Wow.
“This 24 year old is not as good as this 28 year old, this trade isnt very good”
Might wanna chill out and let the game play out, youre going to look foolish if you do stuff like this.
From a braves standpoint I’m not sure how much I like this. I believe upton will outperform prado, but will it be by enough to compensate for the loss at third? If the braves handles things internally, they would have used a weird platoon with prado alternatin between third and left and reed Johnson splitting abs with Francisco. That’s a much better platoon than Johnson and Francisco, both of which can’t hit lefties. Plus, there is no longer a decent Obp guy to lead off- I seriously doubt Simmons can handle it. I like upton a lot, but I am concerned that these losses won’t be overcome by what Justin provides
I think Prado is an underrated player for sure but he is 29-30. If you compare him to another player on fangraphs like Placido Polanco he is very similar but better. Polanco started declining right about now. peak years are 27-29 in my eyes except for a few outliers. Would I trade 1 year of Placido Polanco for a 25yr OF that has received MVP votes in his age 23yr. Yes. Now consider that j-up is under control for 3 years. Also, maybe his big brother will keep him in line. Also Braves have “professionals” to assit him as well. McCann, Hudson, Uggla, even Heyward and freeman get the other side of the game. AZ did not have a lot of guys like that. Maybe Chipper can give him a call. I doubt he was wanted in AZ and that may affect people. Look at how a manger like Ozzie and Valentine have hurt clubs. I have had a jerky boss that did not appreciate me and believe me I would not take a bullet for him or run headlong into an OF wall either. I am targeting J-up in all my roto leagues this year. He will be undervalued. I like his potential to be kept in for anther 3 years in my keeper leagues. Braves do to.
Speaking of fantasy anyone interested in joining an ATL based league. Let me know.
An interesting thing I noticed about Upton: on defense, he spent a lot of time looking at the scoreboard. In other words, his focus on the game was not reliable. This may account for his poor decision-making as to where to throw the ball when it reached him.
The hitting trouble he had last season seemed to be magnified by a tendency to throw silly tantrums when he struck out in a clutch situation.
From boyhood, I remember Willie Mays at about age 25 saying that a player should always be thinking two or three plays ahead and know where to throw the ball when it was hit to him. I don’t think Upton heard this advice.
Thought: in high school, Upton was a shortstop. I often wondered why the Snakes didn’t try him there last year, when he wasn’t really doing well in the outfield, and the team needed a shortstop. I can’t believe Gibson and the coaches weren’t aware of Upton’s history – but the fact that they never tried Upton at short makes one wonder if there wasn’t something they saw that discouraged them from at least considering moving Upton to short. Also note that a shortstop is almost guaranteed to be involved in the game pretty much all the time, while a right fielder can often take little breaks to watch the scoreboard or look for pretty girls in the stands.
Also, we have to remember that Upton is probably worth more to the Braves than he was to the Diamondbacks. The opposite may be the case for Prado, since he solves a major problem for the D-backs, but they can easily fill the right-field slot.
All in all, I think the two teams made a good trade for each side, but each side also acquires some risk. The Diamondbacks got prospects who may turn out, in the long run, to be important. The third-baseman the Braves got along with J-Up did not impress anyone in Arizona last year. I seem to remember his “natural position” is first base. I have rarely been impressed by first basemen converted to playing third.
“An interesting thing I noticed about Upton: on defense, he spent a lot of time looking at the scoreboard. In other words, his focus on the game was not reliable.”
You probably shouldn’t believe in AZ’s media telling you silly things like that actually matter. Upton is 25 and still learning the game. He is already a beast, the owner of a top 5 MVP placing, and will have several more top 5 in the MVP seasons before all is said and done. The Diamondbacks made a MASSIVE error when they placed “culture” over talent. They disliked Upton for reasons that have absolutely zero impact on the outcomes of games, and are pulling these ridiculous quotes out to try and justify Towers sheer idiocy.
Culture has never, ever, ever played a part in a teams success. Look no further than the 3-peating A’s, the late 70’s Yankees or even Barry Bonds most successful team featuring his mortal enemy Jeff Kent who would fight in the dugout on the regular. Sure, there have been teams with great vibes who win, buts that because they also had HOF talents on them. Out of any current player on the Braves or Dbax, Justin Upton is the one most likely to end up there. AZ traded him, and didn’t get the other teams’ best prospect in return, so they failed not only in creating a situation that played no purpose in winning/losing to give reason to get rid of him, but also in not getting just reward for him in a trade. I’d be beyond furious if I was a AZ fan, now I’m just rooting for JUp to show Towers&Gibson just how dumb they are.
I don’t see how they can hit Simmons first. Though BJ’s on base skills seem to have declined, it makes most sense to put your best hitters toward the top of the lineup to get them as many plate appearances as possible. I think they’ll start out with BJ hitting first, placing an emphasis on patience in spring training. If he can’t cut it for a while, they’ll drop him in the order.
Despite the defensive hole at 3B, the lineup is good enough with Upton, Upton, Heyward, McCann, Freeman, Uggla to offset the lack of hitting from 3B and/or SS.
I think Brandon Inge is still available. 🙂
“Though BJ’s on base skills seem to have declined, it makes most sense to put your best hitters toward the top of the lineup to get them as many plate appearances as possible.”
So you want the guy who gets on base the least to get the most PA’s? No. That’s not going to work. Simmons-Heyward-JUp-Freeman-McCann-BJ-Uggla is the way to go.
I don’t get this one, to be honest. Michael Bourn must have been asking for a load of dough because the Braves would have been better served by just paying him.