Brendan Gawlowski Prospect Chat: 1/13/2026

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody! Thanks for chatting with me. Just as a little background: This is my first chat here. I spent the past couple of years as a scout for the Pirates. I mostly covered West Coast systems and a lot of my knowledge is from that part of the country. I’ll do my best with everything else!

Jack Martinez newly a Cardinal: I’m famous for this morning! And now a Cardinal! Please tell me all about me as a pitcher and a prospect!

Brendan Gawlowski: Michael Bowman will have a full writeup shortly, but Cliff notes: low-mid 90s FB w/cut, pairs with CH. We’ll see if he has a good breaking ball. Tends to open up early, which gives me concerns about his deception. Flier type.

Klubot3000: Where would Cole Young have slotted in the Ms list for you? I’m pretty encouraged by holding his own with the bat, but man did the arm stroke look awkward at 2B and the range left something to be desired.

Brendan Gawlowski: Toward the bottom of the 50’s. He’s young, I’d be patient. Tools aren’t huge though, he’s not going to be a star.

Red sox nation: Who’s doing what between you and Eric?

Brendan Gawlowski: We’re sharing a lot of the beefy systems, like you’ve seen already with MIL/LAD/CLE. In general, you’ll probably see him lean towards teams with Florida complexes while I’ll take more of the AZ group this year. But there will be some mixing and matching; I’m working on Blue Jays right now, for instance

Broken Bat: Welcome Brendan, can you provide some background on yourself to help us fans know you a little better.

Brendan Gawlowski: Born and raised in Seattle. Played ball growing up, topped out as a lousy D3 outfielder but grateful to have made it that far. Always have enjoyed writing, and was thrilled to latch on with FanGraphs back in 2019, and happy to be back here. Still live in Seattle area, with my wife and son; he’s 3 and likes catchers.

Blue Jays Eh?: Your thoughts on Gage Stanifer and Johnny King, could Johnny king be #2 behind Yesavage in a few years?

Brendan Gawlowski: More to come on Jays (hopefully) this Friday but… I think King is going to be a pick to click for me when Eric and I do that post next month. No. 2 is stretching it but that’s a good pitching prospect.

Redbeard: Anything unique on how the Pirates run the minor league scouting etc annything different since you started there?

Brendan Gawlowski: The Pirates were/are very intentional about integrating their pro scouts with their statistical analysts. It’s not unique but the level of commitment there is notable.

Dodgers Blue: Given the acquisition of Bregman – and now the news that Matt Shaw has been resistant to approach changes the club has asked of him – how much does this hurt the player’s stock and the club’s ability to get a fair return for him?  As a former, recent scout, would you be pushing a team like the Giants to go after him given what we’re hearing?

Brendan Gawlowski: Really interested to see what the Cubs do with Shaw. Don’t see SFG as an obvious fit; they’ve got a few guys who can play third already.

Kate: Welcome to Fangraphs!  Loving your work with Eric so far.  Do you think David Davalillo have a shot at the Top 100 next month?

Brendan Gawlowski: Off the top of my head I’d guess he’ll fall a tick short of that but he’ll be in the discussion for sure.

Kate: Where would you have Caden Dana if he was still prospect eligible?  Does he have any hope of figuring it out in that org or does he need a trade?

Brendan Gawlowski: Significant big-league exposure tends to change the conversation re: prospect lists b/c it’s data we just don’t have for the majority of guys under consideration. On talent, towards the back of it. As for the LAA angle, I think a lot of guys there would benefit from a change of scenery.

Mike: as a fellow baseballer who topped out in D3 (Washington and Lee), curious where you played?  Also, born and raised in Pittsburgh.  Any hope for Termarr Johnson and/or Henry Davis?  Thank you!

Brendan Gawlowski: Whitworth University; go Bucs. Davis: I’m skeptical of the bat but the defensive (and makeup) transformations from his debut to now are remarkable. He can help in some capacity.

DC51stState: Hi new guy! Is it fair to say that the Yankees have been successful at prospect identification, but performed below league average at development? Does the success of a less-touted prospect like Ben Rice (or, to a lesser extent, Austin Wells), tell us anything about the underperformance of Anthony Volpe or Jasson Dominguez?

Brendan Gawlowski: I didn’t cover the Yankees much but one thing that stood out was how sloppy they were fundamentally. The things you see at the big league level, like the bad baserunning and weird fielding lapses are present down on the farm as well.

MHS: A friendly morning wave from somewhere else in Seattle Brendan.  When it comes to pitching prospect analysis, how do you evaluate a player’s command grade?  What criteria do you use to adjust upwards or downwards as the player progresses through the minors?  And if a player is going to make a command leap, is there a level where that frequently happens?

Brendan Gawlowski: Command: can you throw the ball where you are trying to throw it? I tend to project on good athletes, clean arm swings, and on guys who show some feel for moving the ball intentionally. The magnitude of the projection will depend on a fair bit on how competently they’re doing that last one presently.

Kate: Sorry, just to clarify, when you say “towards the back” for Dana, you mean the back of the Angels list or the back of a Top 100?

Brendan Gawlowski: Back of the 100

Potato: Are you Alfredo Duno-pilled like Eric?

Brendan Gawlowski: His enthusiasm is infectious.

Okra: What was your reaction to the Harry Ford for Jose Ferrer trade?  Were you surprised a RP who hasn’t really broken out yet got such a strong return?

Brendan Gawlowski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-swap-a-ford-for-a-ferreri/

Brendan Gawlowski: Like a kid at a new school, that title was my attempt to fit in here.

Lewis: What do you feel is the most likely outcome for Thomas White’s development?

Brendan Gawlowski: I tend to look at this more from “realistic upside” rather than “most likely outcome” because, statistically speaking, we know that most guys will sputter as they reach the highest level and regressing across the board like that doesn’t really tell us anything useful. With that in mind: No. 2/3 type starter. Want to see more strikes before going ALL in but he’s very good.

Redbeard: Sorry about another Pirates question but anyone there you’re or they are significantly higher on compared to public list/available info

Brendan Gawlowski: Cat is out of the bag now but for all of last year the answer was Antwone Kelly.

Oaktown Blues: Does Luis Morales have ace potential, or more of a mid-rotation ceiling?

Brendan Gawlowski: Ace; wide bars here but I really like him.

Klubot3000: Liked the Pat Forbes write up on the AZ list. I’m pretty high on him and if the DBacks can add a cutter and/or change/split, he could be a huge mover this year. With how good his 1/2 punch is, I could see the fast-moving reliever route, but if you’re the DBacks dev group, are you prioritizing a cutter or change first?

Brendan Gawlowski: I would give him a chance to start and see if those pitches tick up with reps and exposure to Dbacks coaching. Can always push in relief later.

Jubs: Hi Brendan! Quick question for you. In your assessment of the Mariners system, you mentioned that they have “The most stratified system in the game”. By that same coin, what is the least stratified system? As in a farm system with a large plethora of notable players, but very few obvious stars or even everyday big leaguers. Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski: Dbacks come to mind. Tons of guys who could be something useful. Huge list. Two 50’s, one of whom was on the border.

Tacoby Bellsbury: How have the changes in infield and outfield positioning in the past half-decade or so changed your evaluation of position players, both defensively and offensively?

Brendan Gawlowski: They’ve yo-yo’d a little bit with the rules, and also, to a lesser degree, with the overall strikeout rate of the league. The more you can shift and the less often the ball is in play, the more room you have to stick a stiff in left, to get away with a fringy defender at second, etc.

Sir Nerdlington: Brendan, welcome to the chat-o-sphere. Thanks for joining. Aside from being an absolute meat donkey, what’s the path for high school players working their way up through the minor leagues of college baseball? Is JuCo really the better preferred option over D2 or D3? If so, why?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s player- and program-specific. What do you want out of college baseball? Do you just want to play? Do you want to develop with an eye toward pro ball? How important is it to stay close to home? Tons of factors, no blanket answers.

Brendan Gawlowski: That said: If you’re a player who wants to get drafted soon, obviously going to a JuCo can help you do that more quickly than going to a four-year school.

Sir Nerdlington: The Giants list of prospects looks like a grab bag of mediocrity. I can see there being interesting pieces to acquire a Donovan given the Cards longer time horizon, but do they really have ‘enough’ to lure a better player (albeit with a year less of control) in Hoerner?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sure they have enough. Just as an intellectual exercise, look at all the 40+ names on SF’s list. Would Chicago say no to ALL of them? Of course not. And that’s before considering how big-league pieces could also move the needle.

Klubot3000: If Emerson’s swing change last May is indicative of his ability to lift now, is there a reasonable argument to be made he could be a 60? As you wrote in your write up, there’s just SO much to like about the offensive performance and if the defense is arrow up, might he ascend up into that top 5 overall prospect range?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think Emerson is more likely to be very good than just about anyone else on these lists. I think his odds of going supernova and throwing down a couple of 6+ win seasons are lower than a lot of the guys surrounding him on the top 20. We tend to push the latter group towards the tippy top of the list but that’s a philosophical choice.

War2D2: Hi Brendan! Fwiw when I read your last name I imagine a gruff 1970s-cop-show police chief chewing you out, saying “you’ve gone too far this time, Gawlowski! You’re a loose cannon!”

Brendan Gawlowski: I dig it.

Not Eric Karros: Welcome, Brendan! What kind of realistic upside do you see for Kyle Karros (currently slotted in as starting 3B in Col)? He has the glove, and is 6-5 220. Will they give him fair runway and can he find real power?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m not on Karros. Up/down guy for me.

CB: Hey Brendan. Excited that you’re going to be doing chats! What did you think of Arjun Nimmala’s season in Vancouver?

Brendan Gawlowski: Very encouraging. Lovely hands at short, think there’s a real breakout possibility at the plate as he continues to get stronger.

beanbong: From just looking at the lists that have been released so far, it seems like more players are getting 50s compared to the last couple years. Is this a sign of an improved prospect class or a focus on upside rather than median among you and Eric?

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe a little bit of both but I’ve been gently pushing us to expand our horizons on what a 50 looks like. Basically, if we think he can play, I want us to push the guy sooner. I think it’s useful for readers and it reflects how teams are valuing guys, particularly hitters. But also I don’t want to completely disrupt what Eric has built here and what you all are accustomed to. It’s a balance. But with the Pirates, I was writing our equivalent to “50” far, far more frequently than we’ll do so here.

Alec: If you could bless one prospect with a guaranteed season of no injuries who would you bestow this to and why is the correct answer Jonny Farmelo?

Brendan Gawlowski: Farmelo’s in the conversation. Daniel Espino? Brandon Barriera? His stuff was really crisp last season, I just want to see him healthy for his sake, nobody deserves all these injuries.

Desert Deserter: Demetrio Crisantes missed a lot of time last season but seemed to be continuing his strong data — do you think his bat is or will be strong enough to carry him as a starting 1B eventually?

Brendan Gawlowski: He could be a regular at second

Turang Test: Is Bryce Eldridge the guy the Giants hope he is?  Or is his 2025 AAA/MLB production indicating he’s more likely a bust?

Brendan Gawlowski: Very interesting bat, do not write him off

Adam: For those unable to actually see players live, is there anything in box scores that we really should keep an eye one? What numbers on prospects FanGraphs page are the most important to pay attention to?

Brendan Gawlowski: Visual eval and statistical eval are surprisingly different animals. But for both hitters and pitchers, evaluating contact/miss rates in various ways is a good start.

Thomas Duff: Thoughts on Tyler Black Milwaukee

Brendan Gawlowski: I think he finds a way to be useful. What an odd skill set.

Jim: What do you think of the A’s farm system?

Brendan Gawlowski: A whole lot more than I did 12 months ago. Average.

Dodgers Blue: From a pure fandom aspect, who were some of the players you personally enjoyed scouting the most across your career?

Brendan Gawlowski: A lot of Rockies were interesting in one way or another. So many guys who had paths forward just stuck in the worst place to grow. Roldy Brito was maybe my favorite player to scout last year; threw a Zobrist comp on him.

Okra: Of course there is no way to know for sure, but in your opinion if an org instructed their pitchers to throw at 95%, their run prevention would be __% worse?

Brendan Gawlowski: What an interesting question. I don’t have an answer but you’ve had me thinking for like 20 minutes.

Guest: Do scouts talk at all with other scouts in different regions or orgs? How excited were you guys about Skenes?

Brendan Gawlowski: We talk all the time. There’s a fair bit of shadow boxing to it at first: The game of scouting the other scouts is a fun one. We kind of speak in recs: restaurants, hotels, etc. You can learn a fair bit about someone by how they play that game and it sort of informs how much you trust them on other things. Over time, you make friends with a few.

Alec Asher Wojchiechowski: How do you view Zach Cole? Can he be a Matt Wallner-esque hitter?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think he sees the ball well. I’m skeptical, which is a shame because he’s very toolsy.

Guest: What should Nats fans look for in Eli Willits’ development in his first full season?

Brendan Gawlowski: You should be hoping that, wherever he is, he’s making plenty of hard contact and driving the ball to some degree. One thing to sniff out: Is there any sign that there’s more power than he showed as an amateur?

Commie: Whither Ethan Salas?

Brendan Gawlowski: Another good one for the “which prospect do you want to be healthy?”

Decoy San: Are prospects, in general, starting to be overvalued? I believe a couple of higher-end prospects from the Dodgers (Hope and, say, Casparius) could pry Duran out of Boston. But others on this site suggest Duran is “meh.” I’m not trying to tell anybody their jobs, but Duran posted a 4.5 WAR in a “down” season, which doesn’t feel very meh to me. And as much as I (a huge Dodgers honk) love Hope, I’m guessing a 4.5 season from him would be close to the top end of his potential value. Thoughts?

Brendan Gawlowski: Who’s suggesting Duran is meh?

wheelhouse: wait, this means there’s a new guy to bother with questions about spencer jones

Brendan Gawlowski: From what I can tell, this seems to be a parlor game in the public space. To lay my cards on the table: He’s obviously boom/bust but I would want to be the one giving him the chance to go ‘boom’

PurpleandTeal: Welcome, Brendan! Can we expect to hear some good stories from your time as a scout?

Brendan Gawlowski: If people want to hear them. I’ve got plenty. The best one that I can’t go into super specific detail about would be the time I encountered a Rockies scout who thought he was seeing a Rockies affiliate; he was not.

PurpleandTeal: What is the future of the analytics vs scouts? Are teams going to stop canning their pro scout departments?

Brendan Gawlowski: I hope so; there’s a lot of value in approaching player valuation from both perspectives. You cannot possibly listen to a good scout break down a player and think “eh, we don’t need this, just look at the numbers.”

Jonathan: How would you feel if/when analysts from the FO asked to learn more about scouting?

Brendan Gawlowski: I can only speak for my experience, but analysts within Pit’s group were always engaging and respectful. And I sure hope they felt it was a two-way street from me.

Billy G: re: improvements in A’s system. What do you see as the drivers? Change in dev philosophy for hitting and / or pitching? Drafting well? The Miller and other trades?

Brendan Gawlowski: The Miller trade helped a lot, of course, that was a haul. He’s not part of the system anymore, technically, but the Morales slingshot helped a bunch too.

Brendan Gawlowski: I apologize for not getting to everything here, I can’t possibly keep up. We’ll go another 20 minutes and I’ll do the best I can.

Maddoning: Why would the Cubs, who are trying to contend, trade Nico Hoerner to the Giants for a bag of prospects?  I don’t see the fit at all, or am I missing something?

Brendan Gawlowski: I can see a path on their end if they also tap into some of SFG’s younger big leaguers but making the math work on both sides is… tricky.

Beano: B  Crim on Colorado- will he be their 1b?

Brendan Gawlowski: A rare nice story for them last year… Everyday 1B feels like a little much but I think he can help.

Jonathan: Are you going to miss any team-side tools you had access to?

Brendan Gawlowski: Rest assured, I miss them already. My old reports more than anything. Statistically speaking, I can still get a lot of the info I need but it takes longer, sometimes significantly.

Kate: Any of the 2025 draft guys that will be moving up significantly once that whole set of names gets the 2026 list treatment?  There are several guys there Eric’s 2025 reports seem low on compared to others.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m sure there will be. Some will be from lower-round guys who may make us go ‘hey wait a minute’ when we have a little longer to poke around. Hugus with Seattle maybe didn’t move on their list a ton, but provoked a lot of discussions/thoughts. And for the lists that come out later, when we have spring looks, that’ll change the equation too.

Greg: Another Pirates note but… Paul Skenes pickoff move to 1B is insane. I love that he seems to work at every part of his craft

Brendan Gawlowski: Elite worker. He was getting better at so many little things all throughout 2025.

Billy Ocean: What would be your scouting summary for a 20 yo Brendan Gawlowski in D3 ball?

Brendan Gawlowski: “Hope he can read”

Lord Thunder: Which classification will Leodalis DeVries be playing at on opening day 2026? 2027?

Brendan Gawlowski: AA; AAA

Okra: Lets assume two 50FV SP prospects are pretty evenly ranked and well liked.  Everything is the same b/t them (stats, age, injury/draft history, etc) except one has a 70 fastball and lacking secondaries while the other has four 50 grade pitches.  Wouldn’t you rather the elite fastball since it translates to RP better if needed?  thoughts?

Brendan Gawlowski: I hate to say “it depends” but it does. How bad are the secondaries? How healthy are we talking?

Brendan Gawlowski: I always think it’s helpful to scout the player, not the demographic/heuristics

Billy Ocean: As an opposing scout watching another organization, how can you discern if a club is having a guy work on a particular skill to the detriment of some aspect of his game and not underrate him overall as a prospect? Like, a guy just trying to pull everything, take extra pitches to develop eye, only throw fastball, etc.

Brendan Gawlowski: Talk to people around the team. Oftentimes you can infer from what you’re seeing, and then you check that instinct with others

Out of Dodge: Is Alex Freeland a full-time starter at 2B in LAD this season?

Brendan Gawlowski: I suspect they’ll mix and match

Guest: Are we all overreacting to Ethan Holliday’s K rate in his debut or is his fall down a lot of FYPD’s the right move?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t know, are people reacting very strongly? Obviously you’d rather he hit .500 and homer every five at bats. Realistically, you knew there would be swing and miss risk and that bore out in his debut. Those end-of-year cameos are really, really tough on HS picks. “Here, young man with a ton of money all of the sudden: Take a two month break from your relentless baseball schedule and then come face way better pitching than you’re used to seeing in a totally unfamiliar environment with high expectations coming at you from all directions.”

Barry M.: Is Jordan Lawlar ever going to get a chance?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sure seems like it’s not going to be in Arizona, doesn’t it

Okra: What do you think the most over and under valued thing currently in the game?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t know about “over” but I think reps for pitchers while they’re growing might be the “under”

Brendan and Eric fan: Hi and welcome!  Does Ji Hwan Bae still has a glimmer of hope for an MLB future?

Brendan Gawlowski: Extra guy, speed plays down.

Nate: If you knew that Chase DeLauter was going to be 100% healthy moving forward, how high does the FV grade get? Feels like a low-end 60 is table stakes talent wise

Brendan Gawlowski: Easy top 10 guy. But also he’d have graduated a year and a half ago

JT: who’s your favorite DSL pop up guy from last year? Marconi German?

Brendan Gawlowski: I dunno if he’s a popup guy exactly but Toronto is top of mind and Juan Sanchez is certainly intriguing. Also, please read to the end of that list for the Elaineiker Coronado blurb. Delightfully weird profile.

Scott Smalls: Christian Moore seems to be talked about like a bust at the MLB level. Should he be written off already? I think it’s too soon. Adael Amador seems like another who came up too early and was predictably not ready and overmatched.

Brendan Gawlowski: Way too early. Maybe he hits, maybe he doesn’t. But, like, Dansby Swanson was a one-win guy for years. Was he a bust? Sometimes it takes a while.

Brendan Gawlowski: As for Amador: Makes me sad, I loved him in A-ball. Body went backwards, hasn’t grown at all at the plate.

Zwayne: Which team’s specific development competency is the most underrated right now? As in, the Mariners and Pirates have great pitching dev or the Dodgers and Red Sox are great at improving bat speed, etc.

Brendan Gawlowski: Probably the even more granular aspects would qualify as ‘most underrated.’ Toronto’s ability to get guys stronger; Milwaukee’s ability to get wild college arms to throw strikes

Jubs: Does Ben Williamson have a chance with the M’s this year? Seems almost inevitable he’ll be replaced by a FA or even another infielder like Young or Emerson eventually.

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t see him as a regular.

fWAR HUH YEAH: besides konnor, what other debuts you think we’ll see from the farm before their first (legal) beer

Brendan Gawlowski: LDV seems like a safe bet.

Scioscia: Is there anything the Angels are doing right with prospect development?

Brendan Gawlowski: It sounds like a back-handed compliment but I sorta think they’ve found something with the ‘take the guy who’s most ready and push him’ draft approach.

Dodgers Blue: Brendan – welcome and congrats on your first chat, thanks for doing this!  If you were starting a franchise, would you opt for Nolan McLean or Bubba Chandler (ballparks being equal)?

Brendan Gawlowski: Nolan

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ve gotta wrap this up now. Thank you all for the questions today, I hope it was helpful. Perhaps we should make this a regular thing? I don’t know. I should talk to Meg. For now, have a good rest of your day and thank you again!