Bryce Harper Is Catching Up to Mike Trout
Since the 2012 season, the question of the best player in baseball has been pretty boring. Mike Trout busted onto the scene with a +10.3 WAR season as a 20 year old, and he’s since dominated the sport in a way that has rarely been seen in the game’s history. There were good players having great seasons in Trout’s shadow, but no one put up any real serious challenge to the idea that they were a better player than Trout. But now, that might be changing, as Bryce Harper is putting together a realistic run at the title of the best player in baseball.
Obviously, Harper’s 2015 season was outstanding, as he won the NL MVP by wrecking opposing pitchers on a daily basis. But because of how good he was last year, it can be easy to forget that Harper is still just 23 years old, and he appears to be getting even better.
Harper’s transformation into an offensive monster included a couple of key changes; he focused more on his pull-power and started elevating the baseball more regularly. For the first two weeks of 2016, Harper seems to have doubled down on those efforts.
| Season | GB% | Pull% |
| 2012 | 45% | 32% |
| 2013 | 47% | 39% |
| 2014 | 44% | 39% |
| 2015 | 39% | 45% |
| 2016 | 31% | 44% |
When he came into the league, Harper hit the ball on the ground a little more than the average hitter, and he worked on spraying the ball around the field. He’s figured out that, with his power, crushing the ball to right field in the air is more valuable, and for the first couple of weeks of 2016, he’s basically morphed his batted ball profile into something you’d see from Chris Davis.
Except Chris Davis has to trade contact for power, as his uppercut swing causes him to swing through a lot of pitches, and thus, Davis strikes out about as much as anyone in baseball. At the same time Harper is moving towards an elite damage-on-contact batted ball profile, he’s also making more contact than he used to.
| Season | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% |
| 2012 | 34% | 72% | 59% | 87% | 76% |
| 2013 | 30% | 72% | 62% | 86% | 77% |
| 2014 | 33% | 73% | 54% | 83% | 73% |
| 2015 | 28% | 68% | 61% | 84% | 75% |
| 2016 | 21% | 73% | 56% | 93% | 84% |
Note that Harper’s O-Swing rates have been trending down over the years, and through the first couple of weeks of 2016, he’s now swinging at pitches out of the zone at a rate that would make him one of the most selective hitters in baseball. But he’s managed to pair that increased selectivity with a very aggressive approach on pitches in the zone, so he’s not just standing there taking strikes and working the count. As August Fagerstrom noted last week, Harper has stopped swinging through pitches in the zone, there’s basically no way to get him out anymore. He doesn’t chase out of the zone like he used to, he’s not letting hittable strikes go by, and he’s making contact on almost every strike he swings at.
And he doesn’t appear to have sacrificed any power in making these improvements. As good as Harper was last year, it appears that we may not have seen the best of him yet. And even taking the longer view, what Harper is in the midst of doing is on par with Trout’s best years.
Over the past 365 days, Harper has played in 153 games, so a little less than one full season. Here’s what he’s done during that time.
| PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
| 654 | 19% | 18% | 0.340 | 0.362 | 0.338 | 0.466 | 0.679 | 0.474 | 205 | 10.2 |
That’s Joey Votto’s control of the strike zone married to Chris Davis’ power when Chris Davis is on a hot streak. That’s a +10 WAR season from a guy who isn’t getting any boost from the defensive metrics. And a guy who appears to be getting better.
Of course, Trout’s had a couple of seasons at this level, and this is Harper’s first stretch of putting up +10 WAR over a year’s worth of games, so it’s probably fair to say that we don’t have enough evidence to suggest that Harper has passed Trout at this point. But even now, the gap might not be as large as you’d think.
Heading into the season, our combined ZIPS/Steamer projections had Trout at +8.7 WAR to +7.3 WAR for Harper, a 1.4 win gap. Taking into account the data from the first two weeks of 2016, though, the rest-of-season ZIPS/Steamer forecasts have Trout at +7.9 and Harper at +7.2, so in two weeks, Harper has cut the projected difference in half.
If Harper keeps hitting for this kind of power while sustaining these improved contact rates, he’s going to be an unstoppable offensive force, and run away with the NL MVP again. He’s even halfway to last season’s stolen base total, and he hasn’t been thrown out on the bases yet, so he’s apparently decided to add some baserunning value to his already stellar overall game.
Harper can’t keep up his current levels of performance, of course. He won’t get to face Atlanta’s pitching staff in half of his games, as he has so far. He’s going to cool off to some degree. But look at that past year line again; that isn’t a fluke. This is a 23 year old who has figured out how to turn his physical talents into the kind of production that is nearly unprecedented in baseball history. And if Harper can retain even a chunk of his early improvements, then we won’t be calling Mike Trout the best player in baseball that much longer. It’s too early to say that Harper has taken that crown away quite yet, but by this summer, we might have to acknowledge that this is now Bryce Harper’s game, and Mike Trout is the one trying to play catch up.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Harper’s not the only one catching up to Trout:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=11&season1=2016&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=
it’s crazy how good Donaldson has been
It’s even crazier that he’s about to become the second-best third baseman in his division.
In a year in which Mike Trout wasn’t playing baseball, Donaldson would have won the MVP in a landslide. I don’t mean to take away from his accomplishments on the field in recent years.
But Donaldson is 30. If he catches Trout, Trout–baring injury–will catch him again at some point, and then lap him. It less obvious that Trout could catch up to the game’s best hitter who is also a year younger than he is.
A team consisting of Harper, Trout, Donaldson, Kershaw and 21 replacement level scrubs could probably compete for a Wildcard spot.
A team consisting of Calhoun, Trout, Andrelton, Richards and 21 replacement level scrubs could probably compete for a Wildcard spot.
*Fixed
A team of Harper, Trout, Donaldson, Kershaw and 21 replacement level scrubs would win the division with ease, barring injury. That’s a better roster (by projected WAR) than nearly every real roster in the majors.
Amusingly, it would also be an incredibly cheap team.
A team of Harper, Trout, Donaldson, Kershaw and 21 bench players from mediocre college programs can probably contend for a playoff spot.
Projecting those 4 for 32 WAR and then 21 players at 0 WAR would but them between the Marlins and Angels in the depth charts. I don’t see how that is the best roster in the majors.
48 plus ~30 wins from those guys only equals a 78 win team. You are about a superstar short.
Yeah as Los and Jedi are much closer on this. They’d be projected to be about a low 80’s win team assuming they got 32-35 WAR out of those four. That’s why I structured my comment the way I did. Even if they got 10 win seasons from each guy, they’d probably still fall short of 90 Wins.
Somehow I forgot to include pitcher WAR when looking at actual real teams. You’re right that the above would be a middling team.
If you have the four superstars and 21 average level players, you’d win the division with ease. At replacement level it’s like jpg’s original comment.
The third and fourth paragraphs reference “The first two weeks of 2015” where I think you mean 2016.
Not that I think this guy is likely to be competing for the title of best player in baseball, but here is your reminder that there is a player closer to Trout’s projection than Harper, who is such a slouch that he only plays in 1/5 games.
Maybe he needs to stop taking so much time off.
Grady Sizemore? #thisjokesponsoredbytheyear2011
That makes me sad…ah, what might have been.
that rest of season ZiPS/Steamer is from here until the end, right? Not the full season, updated projection? So, with 1 WAR already, ZiPS/Steamer is now projecting 8.2 WAR total for the season?
I had a similar question. The comparison between the preseason and ROS projections, as stated, imply only that Trout’s performance has dipped while Harper’s has remained essentially flat…and I don’t think that’s what this article is trying to highlight. DarkVoid116’s suggested explanation would go a long way toward clarifying.
Ah, thanks. I was really puzzled how Harper’s projected WAR could drop even a little after his hot start. What you say makes sense.
Exciting.
While I agree with the general premise of the article, I feel like this point is a bit dishonest:
“Taking into account the data from the first two weeks of 2016, though, the rest-of-season ZIPS/Steamer forecasts have Trout at +7.9 and Harper at +7.2, so in two weeks, Harper has cut the projected difference in half.”
Harper hasn’t cut the difference in half; he’s basically done what the projections expected him to do. Trout, so far, has regressed a bit. He’s the one that’s cut the difference in half.
There’s a semantic game to be played to argue that I’m wrong, sure, but I feel like the point of the article is to say that Harper has elevated his game to the point of Trout’s. The specific point above doesn’t do that–it shows that Trout’s game has regressed toward Harper’s.
Actually, looking at the projections, the stronger point that Dave could have made was that the rest-of-season projection added to what they’ve already produced is identical. 1 WAR for Harper plus the 7.2 equals 8.2 total, and the .3 WAR from Trout added to his projected 7.9 remaining is the same.
So by that standard, Harper has not only cut the gap in half, but his progress, combined with Trout’s (relative) underperformance this year has completely wiped it out.
nats fans back in total cocky asshole mode
but feel bad for them everybody. so long suffering and they seem like such witty, good guys. they deserve all the ridiculous success of their team on and off the field. best fucking fans. the only ones without complexes. the only ones who don’t treat other teams’ fans like shit. a shining example to us all!
You are a true Hemingway with words!
MAKE FANGRAPHS COMMENTS FUN AGAIN
He is batting .385/60/145 with 1200 OPS in The Show for me with 11 games left.
Can he do that in real life?
__ Screaming ‘Jai says:
April 18, 2016 by 13:56
From a fan of pretentious asshole
But for all of them bad. endured so long and seemed to be good fun, guys. They deserve the ridiculous success of your team on and off the court. Most amateur monster. but it is not complicated. The only people who do not handle other amateur teams like shit. An example for all of us!
Trout may read this article and put up a 3 WAR month for kicks.
A few weeks ago, I was wondering just how good Trout’s run of success has really been, and looked to see how frequently players have 4 year stretches as good as his has been. I was surprised to realize that it really isn’t that rare. I wasn’t methodical in my approach, and just did some random 4-year stretches, sliding the time period by 8 years at a time, but found that most of the years, there was someone who amassed more than 32 WAR over four years. By this measure, Trout’s achievement is not at all historically significant. He’s an MVP-quality player who’s probably headed for the Hall of Fame, but is far from one of the greatest of all time.
On the other hand, what makes Trout so great is that he has done this in his first four full seasons. Very few players can claim that achievement, and they’re all legends (Cobb, Mantle, Williams, Ott, etc). The thing that makes Trout seem so exciting is that he has been amazing for his whole career.
Harper hasn’t been incredible for his whole career, and may never be; judging simply by his WAR totals by season he’s only had one season with greater than 4.7 WAR, which was last year. If we want to play the ‘who’s better’ game between these two young stars, surely we have to give the nod to Trout, who has the many years of success behind him over Harper, who’s got only a single season of MVP-level play to his name. Call me when Harper repeats his 2015 season two more times.
Question 1: Who has had a better career to date, Bryce Harper or Mike Trout? Question 2: Who is better right now, Bryce Harper or Mike Trout? Question 3: Who is likely to be better going forward, Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?
Question 1 is totally uninteresting for many of the reasons you mention. Since their callups, Trout has been a lot better. This may get less and less true if Harper is better going forward, but right now, Trout wins in a landslide. It’s also not the question that Dave is asking in this article.
Question 2 and 3 are much closer. Harper’s 2015 was better than Trout’s (though not by a huge amount), and there are reasons to think his 2016 will be too. I think I’ve seen enough to conclude that Harper is a better hitter now, and is likely to be a better hitter going forward. He was a better hitter in 2015 than Trout has ever been, and he appears to be just as good (or better!) in 2016. Trout could be as patient as Harper, but Harper’s power advantage seems too great.
Whether Harper is the better player now (or going forward) is a lot tougher. Trout has a baserunning and defense advantage now, and he’s proven better at staying healthy than Harper. How will Trout’s advantages age? How much does Harper being 14 months younger matter? Will Harper get better at staying healthy? Can he improve on defense and baserunning? These are all tough questions.
Question 4: Is Dave Schoenfield going to keep stealing all of Dave’s columns and reproduce them on espn’s sweetspot blog?
I only regret that I have but one up-vote to give this comment.
Another way to look at it though, is that by WAR/game played, a stat I just made up, Trout is 3rd all time, behind Ruth and some dude named Ross Barnes from the 1800’s. The next few slots are occupied by Hornsby, Williams, Bonds, Gehrig, Mays, etc. so it seems to be a pretty good stat and indicates that Trout, at least so far, is an historically great player.
This is because Trout has only played through his age 24 season.
Willie Mays was worth like 118 WAR per season from age 23 until age 35. For all Trout has done so far, he would still have to average 9 WAR per season for the next 9 years to equal that 13 year (!) peak. Let’s see if he is an ageless wizard first before we start putting him in the all-time top 5…
I think you’re actually underselling Trout’s achievement here. His four year stretch isn’t 32 WAR: he put up 37.8 WAR over those years. Based on a manual scan the hitters (20th century onwards) who’ve put up 35-40 WAR in a four year stretch is: Gehrig, Morgan, Foxx, Trout, A-Rod, Musial, Yazstremski and Speaker. It’s possible I’ve missed someone, but that absolutely looks like a list of all-time greats.
(The hitters to exceed 40 WAR: Ruth, Bonds, Williams, Mantle, Mays, Wagner, Hornsby, Cobb.)
The top wRC+ for a 23 year old belongs to Ted Williams at 209. Harper’s 202 would have placed him second.
Trout and catchup. Sounds good, I think I’ll try it.
Upvote for user name alone. (I mean the comment was fine also, but you probably could’ve just gone full Trump-level nonsense and I would have gone merrily along.)
I cannot believe no one noticed. Congrats Dave Cameron on your 3,000th!! You beat Ichiro Suzuki to it. Your 3,000th post on fangraphs that is! You are no longer Bernie Mac, stuck at 2,998.
I don’t expect Bernie Mac will reach 3,000 anytime soon 🙁
This really highlights the problem with WAR and the bias inherent in fg articles. UZR remains garbage, Harper leads the MLB in DRS and yet his WAR is only a tenth of a point higher than Trout for 2016. Yes, SSS, but you would think that Harper’s offensive numbers would give him a significantly higher WAR than Trout who’s struggled, except…. UZR loves Trout, despises Harper. Perhaps that’s the Nats positioning of the park be plays in, but me eyes agree with DRS, as do scouting reports. In reality, Harper has passed Trout, UZR just doesn’t it yet.
So, UZR is garbage, even though it’s not even been posted for 2016 yet? Okayyyy.
Here’s something to chew on: through today, Bryce Harper is slashing .359/.458/.897 for a wRC+ of 238, yet his BABIP is still only .267.
Wait until those hits start falling in.
Sanity check here.
Quick and dirty BABIP projection based on his batted ball mix gives an xBABIP of .271. He’s “underperforming” his expectation by 1.6 hits per year.
Plus he’s not gonna keep hitting 28.6% HR/FB on a 60% fly ball rate. Sure, he’s gonna hit more line drives instead. But given his power, changing fly balls to line drives won’t change his wOBA.
You’re basically saying that 2016 Bryce Harper > 2001 Barry Bonds. AND 2016 Bryce Harper is unlucky. Come on man.
There was a mistake in my calculation. Messed up the BABIP on fly balls. Using the right numbers, I got an expected BABIP of .225, so your assertion that he’s been unlucky is very wrong. There’s just no way this batted ball mix and production on balls in play is in any way sustainable.
Last year he hit 27% HR/FB, so I don’t think it would be totally nuts to think that he could keep that up for, say, an entire year. The 60% FB rate, on the other hand–less likely.
I’d imagine it’s much harder to have a 28% HR/FB when you hit 60% fly balls than 40% fly balls though. Point is that this level of production is basically the max for his true talent. To say he could actually be doing better or even stay at this level four an entire season is ridiculous.
While highly improbable that he will, to say that he *could* maintain this level of production, is not actually ridiculous.
Ted Williams is the only player ever to post a higher wRC+ than Harper before his age 23 season. His 2015 is decidely better than the best season by Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols or Babe Ruth through that age. Cameron is right that his level of production is “nearly unprecedented.” It’s not crazy to act as if he *could* become the a hitter on par with Williams, Ruth and Bonds.
The dig at Atlanta is surprisingly unwarranted. They’ve actually been the only ones to hold him in check. Among the 11 games Harper has played so far, By wRC+, the 6 in Atlanta have ranked 11th, 10th, 9th, 8th, 7th, and 5/6th (tie).
In his games against Miami/Philadelphia he has yet to be held under a wRC+ of 336. Crazy. In comparison, against Atlanta he has been held under 100 four times. Though obviously I wouldn’t expect that to mean anything going forward, but it’s an interesting quirk in how things have gone so far.
Harper’s .182 AVG (on an .800+ OPS & 2 moon shots) vs. the Braves notwithstanding, we know it sure wasn’t Teheran holding Harper in check…
There were no unreasonable digs at the Braves. Try to relax and let the grown folks talk about players qualified to actually play in the MLB. Your pro-Braves Harper-hyper-sensitivity needs to check itself. Rest assured Braves fans will be promptly invited back to the table for these discussions as soon as Atlanta decides to field an actual Major League Baseball team.
I’m just saying that up to this point, contrary to expectation, his games against Atlanta have actually brought his rate stats down a bit. I’m not mad at Dave for asserting the Braves have bad pitching, I’m under no illusions there. Just wanted to point out a surprising bit of information.
Harper 182 AVG (. 800 + Ops 2 times a month) than anything Warriors, we know for sure, but Tehran says Harper confirmation.
No unreasonable time in it. Try to relax and that people are talking about mature players eligible to play in MLB. Your warriors professional needs Harper hypersensitive to check. Be sure, Twins, fans will be invited to attend the discussion shortly after Atlanta decided that says a great baseball team on the field.
Ancalagor is right and you are the only child here. His post is what the comments section is for. Not so you can awkwardly try to play internet tough guy.
Barves
Even if he puts up a 10 WAR season this year, he’d still be almost 10 WAR being Trout through the same age.
behind*
Trout was also healthy in all 4 seasons.
Harper’s been healthy in two: his age 19 and his age 22 seasons.
Both were better than Trout’s.
The ability to stay on the field is important. Establishing an injury history at a young age is cause for concern.
I’ve never actually seen the evidence that in hitters an injury history correlates with an injury future, especially for guys that don’t have an injury to the same area multiple times.
It seems that most of the studies have been concerned with pitcher injuries.
This may be of interest: http://makenolittleplans.net/jacoby-ellsbury-and-being-injury-prone/
Don’t be ridiculous. Harper could have had 800 PA each in his 20 and 21 year old seasons and they wouldn’t have been good as Trout’s.
To philosphool’s point:
In his first 4 full major-league seasons, Grady Sizemore appeared in 639 out of a possible 648 games.
…right.
Thank God we have you, AA1989, to stop us all from being “ridiculous” by suggesting that playing through a knee or thumb injury could affect a player’s rate stats!
You’re doing God’s work, here.
But yeah, El Chapo. I agree.
Mays was better than Mantle, even during the span of Mantle’s career, because he stayed healthy.
Even so, Mantle’s two best overall seasons were both significantly better than Mays’ best, as were his four best offensive seasons (his fifth was a tick above Mays’ best).
I expect similar things from these two.
Harper actually hit better after his injury in 2014 than before. In 2013 he did have a very good month prior to the knee injury, so you may have a point although it was just one month. Either way, I dont think the data suggests that had he been healthy those years he would have had two consecutive 10+ WAR season, which is what it would take for him to top Trout in his age 20-21 seasons. Would the gap close from 8-12 wins (depending on his total from this year) to perhaps 4-8? Maybe. But Trout was still superior through age 23.
Harper has already stolen 3 bases this season.
“He’s even halfway to last season’s stolen base total, and he hasn’t been thrown out on the bases yet.”
Although it’s true he hasn’t been caught stealing, he has been thrown out on the bases twice this year: once trying to advance to 3rd on a wild pitch and once trying to stretch a single into a double (he beat the tag but couldn’t stay on the base).
He’s been picked off too.
Going forward, I think Harper will be the better player (assuming health). Part of Trout’s value in his first two seasons was from defense/baserunning. With the added muscle, I don’t see that value sustaining. His defensive numbers have already dropped, and he’s not running nearly as much as he used to. Harper has the better bat (in my opinion), and if I had the choice, I’d take him over the next several years before I took anybody else.
Having said that, it’s tough to look at swing percentages, strike outs, etc, so early in the season. At the league-wide level, they might stabilize pretty quickly. At the individual-player level, I don’t think that’s the case because it depends on the pitchers each batter is facing. Harper has played against two terrible teams, and one mediocre team, and he missed Fernandez during the Marlins series. (Actually, he faced Fernandez yesterday, after the article was posted, and went 0-1 with a BB and a Sac Fly). If he put up similar percentages in 10 games against the Mets/Indians, it would be phenomenal – but I wouldn’t project these numbers going forward once he plays more decent teams.
I think it was Cameron who a few years ago identified that Harper’s skill set ages better than Trout’s.
Harper just hit another Grand Slam (7). 20 rbi in 13 games.