Bryce Harper on His Breakout
“Lots of people say I’ve changed, and that I’ve done that or done this, but I’ve done this my whole life,” Bryce Harper said when I approached him about his breakout season so far. To some extent, he’s right. He’s just doing what he’s done, more often. Even the things he’s changed have been a return to his roots, to an extent.
“I’ve walked my whole life,” he pointed out. His walk rate in the minors was 13.3%, and before this year, he had a 10.4% walk rate in the majors. So he’s right, and as a young player — at 22, he’d still be two years younger than the average Double-A player, and he has yet to face a pitcher younger than him in the big leagues — he was destined to get better. Batters swing and reach less at the steepest rate before they turn 24, and Harper has improved in both cases by about five percentage points so far this year. Even if his current walk rate is double his career rate.
“Staying in the lineup, being healthy, being in the lineup every day no matter what”: that’s what Bryce Harper thought led to this start. “Not taking breaks. When I’m hurt, I’ll take a two month break and I’m not quite the same when I come back, it’s like going back to Spring Training. In September and October, I rake again.”
And though looking at seasonal splits doesn’t tell you a lot about what’s going to happen in the future, it can tell you that his memory of events is right. Check out the points at which he was injured on these season-by-season weighted on base average (wOBA) charts.
“I don’t like pulling the ball,” claimed Harper, even as he agrees that Jeff Sullivan was right to point out that he’s pulling the ball more this year, especially in the air. Here are relevant rates on that subject, indexed to his career numbers. You can see that he’s hitting more balls in the air, pulling them more, and hitting them harder and further.
| Season | GB/FB | Pull% | Oppo% | Hard% | HR+FB Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 99 | 81 | 122 | 106 | 281 |
| 2013 | 103 | 101 | 92 | 125 | 299 |
| 2014 | 93 | 100 | 101 | 106 | 287 |
| 2015 | 54 | 125 | 73 | 141 | 323 |
“Of course I’m pulling for power but I want the ball to left center, and I enjoy pitches on the outer part of the plate,” continued Harper. “Joey Votto talked to me four or five years ago, said if you want to hit .300 and you want to do what you want to do, you have to hit the ball to left field.” That should sound familiar to a FanGraphs reader, and Harper’s heat map agrees with his appraisal of his swing.
As for mechanical changes, Harper didn’t have much to offer. He mostly wants to “keep his front side in,” and doesn’t worry too much about his hands. Yes, his back foot comes up, and maybe it comes up less this year, and he does like to think about having a nice weight transfer, but he doesn’t specifically think about that foot.
Maybe what’s going on is a little more simple. Most lefties like the ball low and in. “I hate that pitch,” said Harper. Harper is famously aggressive on first pitches — his career swing rate on them is 40% compared to a league that averages around 10%. Here’s where pitchers have been throwing their first pitches to Harper this year. Those are wheelhouse pitches for the most part.
Here’s the thing about using this knowledge about Harper’s preference for pitches on the outside part of the plate: it’s not easy. Even as Harper admits that executing his strategy of going the other way can be tough — “It’s getting harder every single year, because you’re seeing guys that are better. You’re seeing guys that are out of the pen at 98 mph and you’re seeing lefties that are 97, 98 also and can spot it” — it’s even harder to take advantage of his lone weakness.
So, try to throw the ball inside to Bryce Harper. If you do it once, are you going to go there again? “If you can pick a guy out of the big leagues that can throw three straight heaters on the inside part of the plate, and paint those pitches, I’ll tip my cap to them,” said Harper. “If they can do that, that’s very impressive.” So far, they haven’t been able to.
The player will still have his approach — “You just wait for that pitch out over and try not to swing at the pitch inside half” — but he’s not too worried about it. “You’re not going to find that guy that can paint on the inside half.”
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
A few real Bryce Harper facts: ZiPS (U) triple slash of .304/.418/.615; BABIP in May (.333) lower than in April (.395); rWAR/162 of 14.8
He hasn’t had very many balls in play. Absolutely none last night – K, BB, HR, BB, K.
Hey, if you took away all of Harper’s singles/doubles/triples for 2015, he’d have a .000 BABIP. But he’d still have a .300 OBP and a .459 SLG.
Another Bryce Harper Fact™ : he currently has a 221 wRC+ in 200 PA’s. The last time a player not named “Barry Bonds” finished a season with 200+ PA’s and a 206+ wRC+? 1957.
I was going to ask who that player was, but then I thought it would be more fun to research and find out for myself. Turns out there were TWO such players in 1957. That’s incredible.
I hope Bryce Harper can keep this up. It’s more fun when the young guys are this good.
Holy crap! That’s terrifying to think about.
If you want Bryce Harper to keep this up, then you can engineer to trade him to the AL.
His name…Mickey Mantle.
It would be tough to research, but I’d be more interested in seeing how many people had a 221 wRC+ through 200 PA’s, even if they didn’t end the season that way. Plenty of people seem to get off to great starts, only to fade later. And I’d be highly surprised if Harper’s rate stats are close to this by year-end. But it seems like Harper’s on another level than the typical fast starter, so the list would be pretty short.
Yeah, vivalajeter, if I knew how to pull those stats, I would. I think Jeff Sullivan (in response to criticism of his piece comparing the Dodger’s season-to-date offense to historic offenses in baseball history) said on a podcast that he didn’t know how to pull such stats either.
Wasn’t trying to imply that I expect Harper to continue to be Barry Bonds / Ted Williams for the rest of the season. But he’s on that kind of pace so far, and it’s fun to root for him to keep it up.
And if anyone on baseball can be that kind of hitter, its Harper. I’m not saying he is or will be the best player in baseball, but I don’t think it’d be terribly controversial to say that Harper’s bat has the highest *ceiling* in baseball. And, considering his age/health, maybe he’s simply reaching his potential.
200 PA, > 206 wRC+ at the start of a season:
Tulo did it last year, Cabrera the year before. Cabrera was over 200 well into the summer, until he was injured.
Tulo at 220 through 198 PA, Cabrera at 217 through 212 PA, and 210 with > 400 PA.
An Adam Dunn Hat Trick
No, an Adam Dunn palindrome.
What gives, Eno? There are other players below Harper on the WAR leaderboard that you could have interviewed. Why not get a non-east coast player a shot!? I mean I get that both the Red Sox and Nationals have red as their color, but this is taking your bias too far. Please write your next article about someone other than this!
I assume this is a failed sarcastic joke based on your knowledge that Eno is a west-coaster. Be funnier next time.
No, not really. Go read the comments in the Joe Kelly piece.
Read the comments to his last (Joe Kelly) article.
Wow. I was just impressed Eno is interviewing people without having to wait for them to visit the Bay Area. Didn’t realize he had an evil secret agenda.
I believe he was also parodying the readers that accuse the site at large of having a specific bias towards certain teams. But still in agreement with you – not very funny.
Yep, just another Eno Red Sox puff piece.
That’s a clown comment, bro.
Considering that 1007 players have appeared in a major league game this season, there are 1006 players below Harper on the WAR leaderboard that Eno could have interviewed instead.
There are about 175 players worse than me Eno could have interviewed, and I have 0 PA and 0 Innings in the field.
Kevin Frandsen ladies and gentlemen. Shouldn’t you be giving an interview about how Rendon is better?
I feel like with the aggression in his swing, he would be suited well for pulling the ball for power.
As a Phillies fan, it’s always been nice to be able to argue that he’s not lived up to the hype. This year has been really scary with him though. If he’s able to keep something close to this K%/BB% alone he’ll be a major problem for a while.
Not lived up to the hype? Other than getting injured, he’s already been pretty amazing before this season for a guy who still hasn’t faced a pitcher younger than him. Just because he’s not Mike Trout doesn’t mean he’s been disappointing thus far.
I know what you mean, but you could ARGUE that he hasn’t lived up to the hype. Doesn’t necessarily mean you’d be right.
Also, I can’t wait until he faces a pitcher younger than him so I can stop hearing that little stat.
Even if it was due to injury, “the hype” basically called for Harper to have Trout numbers, or be a bust. “The hype” was ridiculous, and technically the last couple years were a bust according to it, but its even more awesome now that hes not only living up to the unrealistic expectations but blowing them away.
I don’t know about that. The hype was basically that he has a decent shot of becoming the best player in baseball, and right now it looks like he has a very decent shot to becoming the second best player. I mean sure there are always making stupid projections about everything, but the consensus was that he was young, extremely talented, would be a big league slugger but was kind of immature. All those things are true.
Nobody has ever been hyped so much that Trout numbers were *expected* – including Mike Trout.
@Joshua
Saying he looks like he has a shot at becoming the second best player in baseball is selling him short. I assume you’re assuming he can’t ever be better than Trout. I agree that it’s nowhere near time to suggest that he IS better than Trout, but it’s definitely time to open up to the possibility that he MIGHT be.
So far this season he has been the best player in baseball and it’s not even close. He might actually be the best player in baseball.
I say this every time this discussion pops up, but given Yirmi’s stat from higher up, I think it bears repeating:
Mickey Mantle was a rookie at 19. Mays was one at 20.
Mays had twice the WAR of Mantle in their first season, and through their first three full seasons.
Mays had a better overall career than Mantle, because of health, baserunning and defense.
But Mickey’s best offensive seasons were several levels of WOW above Willie’s, and the two were consistently the best player in their respective leagues, and traded off being the best player in the game, for 15 years.
So instead of arguing over expectations, how about we just enjoy the fact that we might get to actually see the same thing for ourselves?
For a guy who was supposed to have 80 power, 55 home runs in 1489 PAs is below expectations. While he is extremely unlikely to keep up his current pace, which would put him over that number this year alone, it is likely he will put up a big HR total this year, justifying the scouts who said he had 80 power.
The modest power is not a surprise though. For example, Ken Griffey Jr. hit 60 HR over his first 3 years (same age as Bryce) in 1805 PAs.
80 power was the future number, not necessarily the current. Most guys don’t hit their power peak until about 27. Considering he’s hit nearly as many dingerz as Griffey at the same age in about 300 fewer PA’s and Griffey went on to hit over 500. I’d say the 80 was accurate. Besides 80 means how far it goes when he hits it, not necessarily that he will hit it or how many he’ll hit. Cecil Fielder had 80 power and Mel Ott probably didn’t, but Mel hit more dingerz than Cecil.
55 home runs in 1489 PA from the ages of 19-21 should not have been below anyone’s expectations, especially when 300 of those PA came while dealing with a thumb injury.
Those 55 homers from Harper make him 10th through his age 21 season, right between Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams. So nobody should have been questioning his 80 power grade. He only needs 15 more this season to pass Griffey for a top 10 spot after age 22 season (25 more would tie him with Trout and Frank Robinson for 5th).
Maybe they shouldn’t have been below expectations, that’s tough to say. You point out that 300 came with a thumb injury. Was the thumb injury expected? Arguably we should expect Harper to have trouble with injuries going forward considering his past and his self-described style of play.
It’s also undeniable that we get carried away with the “most ____ before age ____” lists. Harper had 1489 PAs more than the vast majority of big league players before age 22. It is monumentally impressive what he has done, but his age at the start of his career is such an outlier that counting the accomplishments (aside from getting to and sticking in the majors) is misleading. I don’t think it would have been foolish to think that a guy who was hitting distances in his mid teens that most sluggers never reach would top 55 HR in his first 1489 PAs. The fact that he might hit 40-45 this year pretty much legitimizes those expectations, too.
It was a freak injury on a slide, not his “normal” crashing into walls stuff. The particular injury is also well known for sapping power.
Also, the reason his age matters is that he wasn’t fully developed as a human being when he was 19. Guys with a similar power tool who come up at 22, like Bryant, will obviously hit for more power off the bat than Harper did at 19, just because they’re so much physically stronger.
Great stuff! thanks to both Eno and Bryce for the article.
the jim bowden era was just so bad though! way worse than this current stretch for the mets.
You’re at the point now you could change your handle every time and we’d still know it’s you.
Yes, that is factually correct.
what else should i expect from people who think stras is a bust and that harper was a bust very recently
God! Why do you keep interviewing mediocre ballplayers?!!!!
Joe’s definitely not going to carry Eno through the gates of Valhalla at this rate.
I take it this is some form of sarcasm, and not actually serious. Either way, try to be funnier next time
With the Jays in town in the coming week, Harper will likely finally face a pitcher younger than him.
Interesting read.
It’s interesting (ironic?) that he says he likes to hit to LF, and the heat maps show that he eats up the outer half pitches. BUT, when I see him on highlights, he’s pulling outer half pitches for home runs.
So, I’m curious as to whether I’ve just seen a few of those, have selective memory, or whether or not he pulls outer half pitches.
———————————
The rest of his comments remind me of the “smoke em inside” joke from ‘Ball Four’.
I looked it up (because I’m as bored as I am interested).
HR# — pitcher (hand) — pitch location — home run location
18 — Lester (L) — 5-hole — LF
17 — Hendrinks (R) — 9-hole — LF
16 — O’Sullivan (R) — 8-hole — LF
15 — Eovaldi (R) — 2-hole — RC
14 — Thayer (R) — 6-hole — LF
13 — Kelley (R) — 5-hole — RF
12 — De La Rosa (R) — 3-hole — RF
11 — Martin (R) — 2-hole — RC
10 — Perez (R) — 6-hole — RC
09 — Stultz (L) — 8-hole — CF
08 — Koehler (R) — 9-hole — LF
07 — Koehler (R) — 8-hole — RF
06 — Koehler (R) — 5-hole — CF
05 — Haren (R) — 6-hole — RF
04 — Harang (R) — 5-hole — CF
03 — O’Sullivan — 5-hole — CF
02 — O’Sullivan — 5-hole — LF
01 — Colon (R) — 2-hole — RC
I’ll be honesty, when he does go the other way it looks like he’s just late on balls that are up (more than not). But it really doesn’t matter.
The big thing you notice in watching these is [1] he’s right on the plate, and [2] he dives to the outer half. His barrel travels over the outside corner and it doesn’t seem like many are willing or able to get him off the outer half by owning the inner half (pitching inside, particularly from belt buckle to inside corner).
He seemingly has taken the mirrored image of Bautista. Jose would lay off everything away and kill the inner half. Harper is ignoring the inner half and killing everything outerhalf and quite a few strikes that missed their targets and ended up dead center. But, it was funt o watch the clips.
His comments reminded me of Bautista, too. He also has the “advantage” (or lack of disadvantage) that he handles the lefty strike so well.
Sounds like he’s getting some great advice. I don’t think a leaderboard is available for wOBA on Oppo hits, but Votto must easily lead the league. Seeing how well he hits to opposite field gives me some new found respect for him.
Usually hitters are not so honest about their likes and dislikes. Thats refreshing. Part of me wonders if he is setting up a pitcher for his next AB and will take that low inside ball out of here. He has been a must have on my DFS teams for almost a month now even if he is a bit pricey I make room for him. Surprising that 70% pass on him each day except on days where there are few teams playing. Definitely has overtaken Trout and Stanton, but maybe he cools off.
I cant for the life of me understand not making every pitcher face him the 1st inning. Batting Harper 4th is crazy stuff. No protection means he will be walked as often as Bonds was at the end. Even with protection he will be walked a lot, but perhaps as not as often as he has recently
Bonus of batting him first: we would see a FG article about how the opponents should start with a LOOGY and then move to the starter.
Batting fourth works great for the Mats lineup because two of the three guys in front of him are batting over .300.
Meant to type Nats
Harper is such a stud. Glad to hear people talking about his on the field accomplishments and not his temper or immaturity (which was always overblown).