Building a Farm: American League East
Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.
The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:
- I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
- I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
- Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.
The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.
- AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
- RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
- GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
- RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect based on the determinations by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
- Safe – 0 points
- Low – 1 point
- Medium/Moderate – 2 points
- High – 3 points
- Extreme – 4 points
- RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
- Safe – less than 1
- Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
- Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
- High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
- Extreme – equal to 4
Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.
(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)
Baltimore Orioles
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Bundy | RHP | 1.00 | 1 | 75.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Kevin Gausman | RHP | 2.00 | 2 | 67.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jonathan Schoop | 3B | 3.13 | 3 | 55.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Nick Delmonico | 1B/3B | 4.88 | 4 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | LHP | 5.00 | 5 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| LJ Hoes | OF | 6.50 | 6 | 47.5 | 1.0 | Low |
| Mike Wright | RHP | 7.43 | 7 | 50.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Branden Kline | RHP | 7.75 | 8 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Xavier Avery | OF | 9.20 | 9 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Adrian Marin | SS | 9.88 | 10 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brady Wager | RHP | 10.00 | 11 | – | – | – |
| Glynn Davis | OF | 11.00 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Josh Hader | LHP | 12.75 | 13 | 47.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Tim Berry | LHP | 12.80 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 13.00 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Robert Bundy | RHP | 13.00 | 16 | – | – | – |
| Steve Johnson | RHP | 13.50 | 17 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Parker Bridwell | RHP | 14.20 | 18 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Henry Urrutia | OF | 14.50 | 19 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Clayton Schrader | RHP | 15.00 | 20 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Zach Davies | RHP | 15.40 | 21 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Devin Jones | RHP | 17.25 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Mike Belfiore | LHP | 18.00 | 23 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Roderick Bernadina | OF | 18.00 | 24 | – | – | – |
| Torsten Boss | 3B | 19.50 | 25 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tyler Wilson | RHP | 20.00 | 26 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jason Esposito | 3B | 21.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | LHP | 21.00 | 28 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Lex Ruthledge | LHP | 21.00 | 29 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Michael Ohlman | C | 21.67 | 30 | – | – | – |
| T.J. McFarland | LHP | 22.00 | 31 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Dan Klein | RHP | 22.00 | 32 | – | – | – |
| Johnny Ruettiger | OF | 23.00 | 33 | – | – | – |
| Brenden Webb | OF | 23.50 | 34 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Ty Kelly | UTL | 24.50 | 35 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Juan Guzman | RHP | 25.00 | 36 | – | – | – |
| Trent Mummey | OF | 26.00 | 37 | – | – | – |
| Hector Veloz | 3B | 27.00 | 38 | – | – | – |
| Oliver Drake | RHP | 28.00 | 39 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Greg Lorenzo | OF | 29.00 | 40 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jaime Esquivel | RHP | 29.00 | 41 | – | – | – |
| Miguel Chalas | RHP | 30.00 | 42 | – | – | – |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.583 | 2.617 | 15 | 53.167 | 2.900 | 2 | 71.250 | 1.750 |
Without Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, the Orioles would easily have the worst grade among the teams, but those two give the Orioles two front-of-the-rotation pitchers without significant risk. Jonathan Schoop follows those two as a third solid piece, but the rest of the system isn’t well-regarded. Parker Bridwell is a wildcard, going from 6th on one list to 23rd on another.
Boston Red Sox
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 1.00 | 1 | 70.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Jackie Bradley | OF | 2.25 | 2 | 60.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Matt Barnes | RHP | 2.88 | 3 | 62.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Allen Webster | RHP | 4.00 | 4 | 60.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Henry Owens | LHP | 6.00 | 5 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Garin Cecchini | 3B | 6.13 | 6 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Blake Swihart | C | 7.00 | 7 | 60.0 | 3.5 | High |
| Bryce Brentz | OF | 7.86 | 8 | 50.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Jose Iglesias | SS | 9.00 | 9 | 47.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Deven Marrero | SS | 9.17 | 10 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Drake Britton | LHP | 11.50 | 11 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brandon Workman | RHP | 11.67 | 12 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Brian Johnson | LHP | 12.00 | 13 | 50.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Brandon Jacobs | OF | 13.60 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Anthony Ranaudo | RHP | 14.75 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Mookie Betts | 2B | 15.00 | 16 | – | – | – |
| Pat Light | RHP | 16.00 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tzu Wei-Lin | SS | 16.00 | 18 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Alex Wilson | RHP | 16.50 | 19 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jose Vinicio | SS | 16.80 | 20 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brock Holt | 2B | 17.50 | 21 | – | – | – |
| Christian Vazquez | C | 17.50 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Keury De La Cruz | OF | 18.25 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Ty Buttrey | RHP | 18.33 | 24 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Manuel Margot | OF | 20.00 | 25 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Cody Kukuk | LHP | 20.67 | 26 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Travis Shaw | 1B | 21.50 | 27 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Frank Montas | RHP | 22.00 | 28 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Sean Coyle | 2B | 24.00 | 29 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Simon Mercedes | RHP | 28.00 | 30 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Miguel Pena | LHP | 30.00 | 31 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.103 | 2.828 | 27 | 53.611 | 2.889 | 5 | 62.500 | 2.400 |
Boston comes in with the 3rd best system grade in the AL, but it does have the 4th highest risk rating as well. The top prospects, however, aren’t high risk, and they have fairly high ceilings. Recent draftee Ty Buttrey got the most varied results, getting a 12th and 26th place ranking.
New York Yankees
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Sanchez | C | 1.50 | 1 | 62.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Mason Williams | OF | 1.75 | 2 | 62.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Tyler Austin | 1B/OF | 3.50 | 3 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Slade Heathcott | OF | 3.50 | 4 | 60.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jose Campos | RHP | 7.00 | 5 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Ty Hensley | RHP | 7.25 | 6 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Manny Banuelos | LHP | 7.71 | 7 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Angelo Gumbs | 2B | 7.75 | 8 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Brett Marshall | RHP | 9.50 | 9 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Mark Montgomery | RHP | 9.50 | 10 | 55.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Zoilo Almonte | OF | 10.00 | 11 | – | – | – |
| Jose A Ramirez | RHP | 10.14 | 12 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Rafael DePaula | RHP | 10.25 | 13 | 60.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Ramon Flores | OF | 10.75 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Nik Turley | LHP | 12.50 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Bryan Mitchell | RHP | 14.40 | 16 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| JR Murphy | C | 14.80 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Austin Romine | C | 16.80 | 18 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Austin Aune | SS | 17.00 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Dante Bichette Jr | 3B | 17.80 | 20 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| David Adams | 2B | 18.33 | 21 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Corey Black | RHP | 18.75 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Adam Warren | RHP | 19.33 | 23 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Nick Goody | RHP | 20.00 | 24 | – | – | – |
| Dellin Betances | RHP | 20.33 | 25 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Corban Joseph | 2B | 21.67 | 26 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Melky Mesa | OF | 22.00 | 27 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Greg Bird | 1B/C | 22.00 | 28 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Matt Tracy | LHP | 24.00 | 29 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tom Kahnle | RHP | 24.50 | 30 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Chase Whitley | RHP | 25.00 | 31 | – | – | – |
| Ravel Santana | OF | 28.00 | 32 | – | – | – |
| Cito Culver | SS | 28.50 | 33 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Daniel Camarena | LHP | 30.00 | 34 | – | – | – |
| Gabe Encinas | RHP | 30.00 | 35 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.000 | 2.767 | 23 | 54.130 | 3.000 | 4 | 61.250 | 3.125 |
Stepbacks and/or injuries to Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances hurt the stocks of two well-known prospects, but Gary Sanchez, Mason Williams, Tyler Austin, and Slade Heathcott stepped up in their place. Jose Ramirez has gotten some recent publicity, and evaluators had some varying reports, putting him 3rd all the way to 16th.
Tampa Bay Rays
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wil Myers | OF | 1.00 | 1 | 65.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Chris Archer | RHP | 2.50 | 2 | 62.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Taylor Guerrieri | RHP | 2.75 | 3 | 62.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Jake Odorizzi | RHP | 4.50 | 4 | 55.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Richie Shaffer | OF | 6.75 | 5 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Alex Colome | RHP | 7.25 | 6 | 55.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Hak-Ju Lee | SS | 4.63 | 7 | 55.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Enny Romero | LHP | 8.00 | 8 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Drew Vettleson | OF | 9.50 | 9 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Mikie Mahtook | OF | 12.14 | 10 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Blake Snell | LHP | 9.29 | 11 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Jeff Ames | RHP | 14.50 | 12 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jake Hager | SS | 13.17 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tyler Goeddel | 3B | 15.00 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Todd Glaesman | OF | 18.00 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Felipe Rivero | LHP | 14.29 | 16 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Parker Markel | RHP | 21.00 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jesse Hahn | RHP | 15.67 | 18 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tim Beckham | SS/2B | 15.75 | 19 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Ryan Brett | 2B | 21.33 | 20 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Mike Montgomery | LHP | 15.50 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Josh Sale | OF | 17.67 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Patrick Leonard | 3B | 24.67 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Andrew Toles | OF | 19.00 | 25 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Brandon Martin | SS | 20.33 | 26 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brandon Guyer | OF | 17.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Oscar Hernandez | C | 24.00 | 28 | – | – | – |
| Alex Torres | LHP | 26.00 | 29 | – | – | – |
| Robinson Chirinos | C | 29.00 | 30 | – | – | – |
| Ty Morrison | OF | 29.00 | 31 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jose Mujica | RHP | 23.00 | 32 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Bralin Jackson | OF | 27.00 | 33 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Spencer Edwards | SS | 29.00 | 34 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Nick Sawyer | RHP | 30.00 | 35 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.250 | 2.800 | 29 | 53.534 | 2.828 | 3 | 63.333 | 2.000 |
The Rays beat out the Red Sox for the best system grade along with having a better risk rating, though the Red Sox have more players in the 60+ range. Wil Myers finds himself at the top of the list after being traded as the centerpiece for James Shields and Wade Davis. Mike Montgomery, also in the Shields deal, saw a wide range of rankings as he came in both 8th and 25th.
Toronto Blue Jays
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | RHP | 1.00 | 1 | 65.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Roberto Osuna | RHP | 2.25 | 2 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| DJ Davis | OF | 4.13 | 3 | 60.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Marcus Stroman | RHP | 4.38 | 4 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Daniel Norris | LHP | 5.14 | 5 | 60.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Sean Nolin | LHP | 6.63 | 6 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Matthew Smoral | LHP | 6.63 | 7 | 60.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| AJ Jimenez | C | 8.40 | 8 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| John Stilson | RHP | 9.67 | 9 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Santiago Nessy | C | 10.40 | 10 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Alberto Tirado | RHP | 10.86 | 11 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Adonys Cardona | RHP | 12.00 | 12 | – | – | – |
| Anthony Alford | OF | 12.00 | 13 | 60.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Jacob Anderson | OF | 13.00 | 14 | – | – | – |
| Chase DeJong | RHP | 13.25 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Franklin Barreto | SS/OF | 13.75 | 16 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Christian Lopes | SS/2B | 13.80 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Deck McGuire | RHP | 14.67 | 18 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Matthew Dean | 3B | 14.67 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Mitch Nay | 3B | 15.50 | 20 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tyler Gonzales | RHP | 15.67 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Kevin Pillar | OF | 16.00 | 22 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Griffin Murphy | RHP | 17.00 | 23 | – | – | – |
| Dalton Pompey | OF | 17.50 | 24 | – | – | – |
| Dwight Smith | OF | 18.00 | 25 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Andy Burns | INF | 18.50 | 26 | – | – | – |
| Danny Barnes | RHP | 20.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Ryan Goins | SS/2B | 20.50 | 28 | – | – | – |
| Jeremy Gabryszwski | RHP | 22.50 | 29 | – | – | – |
| Chad Jenkins | RHP | 23.00 | 30 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Ryan Borucki | LHP | 24.00 | 31 | – | – | – |
| Dawel Lugo | SS | 24.00 | 32 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Yeyfry Del Rosario | RHP | 24.50 | 33 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Javier Avendano | RHP | 25.00 | 34 | – | – | – |
| Dickie Thon | SS | 25.00 | 35 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Jairo Labourt | LHP | 27.50 | 36 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Chris Hawkins | OF | 28.00 | 37 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.222 | 3.130 | 22 | 53.864 | 3.395 | 5 | 61.000 | 3.800 |
The Blue Jays continue the trend of strong farm systems in the division, but they also have the highest risk rating in the AL. The top of list includes various High to Extreme risk prospects in the ultimate boom-or-bust farm system. All but one of the 60+ prospects have an Extreme rating, and Aaron Sanchez comes in as a High risk.
Wulmer Becerra was traded to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey trade
Good catch. It has been corrected. Thanks.
Stolmy Pimental was traded to the Pirates as well.
Got it.