Building a Farm: American League East

Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.

The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:

• I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
• I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
• Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.

The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.

• AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
• RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
• GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
• RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect based on the determinations by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
  • Safe – 0 points
  • Low – 1 point
  • Medium/Moderate – 2 points
  • High – 3 points
  • Extreme – 4 points
• RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
  • Safe – less than 1
  • Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
  • Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
  • High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
  • Extreme – equal to 4

Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.

(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)

Baltimore Orioles

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Dylan Bundy	RHP	1.00	1	75.0	1.5	Low
Kevin Gausman	RHP	2.00	2	67.5	2.0	Medium
Jonathan Schoop	3B	3.13	3	55.0	2.5	Medium
Nick Delmonico	1B/3B	4.88	4	50.0	3.0	High
Eduardo Rodriguez	LHP	5.00	5	50.0	3.0	High
LJ Hoes	OF	6.50	6	47.5	1.0	Low
Mike Wright	RHP	7.43	7	50.0	2.5	Medium
Branden Kline	RHP	7.75	8	50.0	3.0	High
Xavier Avery	OF	9.20	9	45.0	2.0	Medium
Adrian Marin	SS	9.88	10	50.0	3.0	High
Brady Wager	RHP	10.00	11	–	–	–
Glynn Davis	OF	11.00	12	50.0	3.0	High
Josh Hader	LHP	12.75	13	47.5	3.0	High
Tim Berry	LHP	12.80	14	50.0	3.0	High
Christian Walker	1B	13.00	15	50.0	3.0	High
Robert Bundy	RHP	13.00	16	–	–	–
Steve Johnson	RHP	13.50	17	40.0	1.0	Low
Parker Bridwell	RHP	14.20	18	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Henry Urrutia	OF	14.50	19	45.0	2.0	Medium
Clayton Schrader	RHP	15.00	20	45.0	2.0	Medium
Zach Davies	RHP	15.40	21	45.0	3.0	High
Devin Jones	RHP	17.25	22	50.0	3.0	High
Mike Belfiore	LHP	18.00	23	45.0	3.0	High
Roderick Bernadina	OF	18.00	24	–	–	–
Torsten Boss	3B	19.50	25	50.0	3.0	High
Tyler Wilson	RHP	20.00	26	40.0	2.0	Medium
Jason Esposito	3B	21.00	27	–	–	–
Tsuyoshi Wada	LHP	21.00	28	45.0	3.0	High
Lex Ruthledge	LHP	21.00	29	45.0	3.0	High
Michael Ohlman	C	21.67	30	–	–	–
T.J. McFarland	LHP	22.00	31	40.0	2.0	Medium
Dan Klein	RHP	22.00	32	–	–	–
Johnny Ruettiger	OF	23.00	33	–	–	–
Brenden Webb	OF	23.50	34	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Ty Kelly	UTL	24.50	35	40.0	2.0	Medium
Juan Guzman	RHP	25.00	36	–	–	–
Trent Mummey	OF	26.00	37	–	–	–
Hector Veloz	3B	27.00	38	–	–	–
Oliver Drake	RHP	28.00	39	45.0	3.0	High
Greg Lorenzo	OF	29.00	40	45.0	3.0	High
Jaime Esquivel	RHP	29.00	41	–	–	–
Miguel Chalas	RHP	30.00	42	–	–	–

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
48.583	2.617	15	53.167	2.900	2	71.250	1.750

Without Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, the Orioles would easily have the worst grade among the teams, but those two give the Orioles two front-of-the-rotation pitchers without significant risk. Jonathan Schoop follows those two as a third solid piece, but the rest of the system isn’t well-regarded. Parker Bridwell is a wildcard, going from 6th on one list to 23rd on another.

Boston Red Sox

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	1.00	1	70.0	2.5	Medium
Jackie Bradley	OF	2.25	2	60.0	2.0	Medium
Matt Barnes	RHP	2.88	3	62.5	2.0	Medium
Allen Webster	RHP	4.00	4	60.0	2.0	Medium
Henry Owens	LHP	6.00	5	57.5	3.0	High
Garin Cecchini	3B	6.13	6	57.5	3.0	High
Blake Swihart	C	7.00	7	60.0	3.5	High
Bryce Brentz	OF	7.86	8	50.0	2.5	Medium
Jose Iglesias	SS	9.00	9	47.5	2.0	Medium
Deven Marrero	SS	9.17	10	50.0	2.0	Medium
Drake Britton	LHP	11.50	11	55.0	3.0	High
Brandon Workman	RHP	11.67	12	50.0	2.0	Medium
Brian Johnson	LHP	12.00	13	50.0	2.5	Medium
Brandon Jacobs	OF	13.60	14	50.0	3.0	High
Anthony Ranaudo	RHP	14.75	15	50.0	3.0	High
Mookie Betts	2B	15.00	16	–	–	–
Pat Light	RHP	16.00	17	50.0	3.0	High
Tzu Wei-Lin	SS	16.00	18	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Alex Wilson	RHP	16.50	19	45.0	2.0	Medium
Jose Vinicio	SS	16.80	20	50.0	3.0	High
Brock Holt	2B	17.50	21	–	–	–
Christian Vazquez	C	17.50	22	50.0	3.0	High
Keury De La Cruz	OF	18.25	23	50.0	3.0	High
Ty Buttrey	RHP	18.33	24	50.0	3.0	High
Manuel Margot	OF	20.00	25	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Cody Kukuk	LHP	20.67	26	50.0	3.0	High
Travis Shaw	1B	21.50	27	50.0	3.0	High
Frank Montas	RHP	22.00	28	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Sean Coyle	2B	24.00	29	50.0	3.0	High
Simon Mercedes	RHP	28.00	30	50.0	3.0	High
Miguel Pena	LHP	30.00	31	50.0	3.0	High

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
53.103	2.828	27	53.611	2.889	5	62.500	2.400

Boston comes in with the 3rd best system grade in the AL, but it does have the 4th highest risk rating as well. The top prospects, however, aren’t high risk, and they have fairly high ceilings. Recent draftee Ty Buttrey got the most varied results, getting a 12th and 26th place ranking.

New York Yankees

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Gary Sanchez	C	1.50	1	62.5	3.0	High
Mason Williams	OF	1.75	2	62.5	2.5	Medium
Tyler Austin	1B/OF	3.50	3	57.5	2.5	Medium
Slade Heathcott	OF	3.50	4	60.0	3.0	High
Jose Campos	RHP	7.00	5	57.5	3.5	High
Ty Hensley	RHP	7.25	6	57.5	3.0	High
Manny Banuelos	LHP	7.71	7	55.0	3.0	High
Angelo Gumbs	2B	7.75	8	57.5	3.0	High
Brett Marshall	RHP	9.50	9	50.0	2.0	Medium
Mark Montgomery	RHP	9.50	10	55.0	1.5	Low
Zoilo Almonte	OF	10.00	11	–	–	–
Jose A Ramirez	RHP	10.14	12	55.0	3.0	High
Rafael DePaula	RHP	10.25	13	60.0	4.0	Extreme
Ramon Flores	OF	10.75	14	50.0	3.0	High
Nik Turley	LHP	12.50	15	50.0	3.0	High
Bryan Mitchell	RHP	14.40	16	55.0	4.0	Extreme
JR Murphy	C	14.80	17	50.0	3.0	High
Austin Romine	C	16.80	18	45.0	2.0	Medium
Austin Aune	SS	17.00	19	50.0	3.0	High
Dante Bichette Jr	3B	17.80	20	50.0	3.0	High
David Adams	2B	18.33	21	45.0	2.0	Medium
Corey Black	RHP	18.75	22	50.0	3.0	High
Adam Warren	RHP	19.33	23	45.0	2.0	Medium
Nick Goody	RHP	20.00	24	–	–	–
Dellin Betances	RHP	20.33	25	50.0	3.0	High
Corban Joseph	2B	21.67	26	45.0	2.0	Medium
Melky Mesa	OF	22.00	27	45.0	2.0	Medium
Greg Bird	1B/C	22.00	28	50.0	3.0	High
Matt Tracy	LHP	24.00	29	50.0	3.0	High
Tom Kahnle	RHP	24.50	30	45.0	2.0	Medium
Chase Whitley	RHP	25.00	31	–	–	–
Ravel Santana	OF	28.00	32	–	–	–
Cito Culver	SS	28.50	33	45.0	2.0	Medium
Daniel Camarena	LHP	30.00	34	–	–	–
Gabe Encinas	RHP	30.00	35	50.0	4.0	Extreme

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
52.000	2.767	23	54.130	3.000	4	61.250	3.125

Stepbacks and/or injuries to Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances hurt the stocks of two well-known prospects, but Gary Sanchez, Mason Williams, Tyler Austin, and Slade Heathcott stepped up in their place. Jose Ramirez has gotten some recent publicity, and evaluators had some varying reports, putting him 3rd all the way to 16th.

Tampa Bay Rays

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Wil Myers	OF	1.00	1	65.0	1.0	Low
Chris Archer	RHP	2.50	2	62.5	2.0	Medium
Taylor Guerrieri	RHP	2.75	3	62.5	3.0	High
Jake Odorizzi	RHP	4.50	4	55.0	2.0	Medium
Richie Shaffer	OF	6.75	5	52.5	3.0	High
Alex Colome	RHP	7.25	6	55.0	2.0	Medium
Hak-Ju Lee	SS	4.63	7	55.0	2.0	Medium
Enny Romero	LHP	8.00	8	55.0	3.0	High
Drew Vettleson	OF	9.50	9	52.5	3.0	High
Mikie Mahtook	OF	12.14	10	50.0	2.0	Medium
Blake Snell	LHP	9.29	11	57.5	3.0	High
Jeff Ames	RHP	14.50	12	55.0	3.0	High
Jake Hager	SS	13.17	13	50.0	3.0	High
Tyler Goeddel	3B	15.00	14	50.0	3.0	High
Todd Glaesman	OF	18.00	15	50.0	3.0	High
Felipe Rivero	LHP	14.29	16	55.0	3.0	High
Parker Markel	RHP	21.00	17	50.0	3.0	High
Jesse Hahn	RHP	15.67	18	55.0	3.0	High
Tim Beckham	SS/2B	15.75	19	50.0	2.0	Medium
Ryan Brett	2B	21.33	20	50.0	3.0	High
Mike Montgomery	LHP	15.50	21	50.0	3.0	High
Josh Sale	OF	17.67	22	50.0	3.0	High
Patrick Leonard	3B	24.67	23	50.0	3.0	High
Andrew Toles	OF	19.00	25	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Brandon Martin	SS	20.33	26	50.0	3.0	High
Brandon Guyer	OF	17.00	27	–	–	–
Oscar Hernandez	C	24.00	28	–	–	–
Alex Torres	LHP	26.00	29	–	–	–
Robinson Chirinos	C	29.00	30	–	–	–
Ty Morrison	OF	29.00	31	45.0	2.0	Medium
Jose Mujica	RHP	23.00	32	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Bralin Jackson	OF	27.00	33	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Spencer Edwards	SS	29.00	34	50.0	3.0	High
Nick Sawyer	RHP	30.00	35	50.0	3.0	High

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
53.250	2.800	29	53.534	2.828	3	63.333	2.000

The Rays beat out the Red Sox for the best system grade along with having a better risk rating, though the Red Sox have more players in the 60+ range. Wil Myers finds himself at the top of the list after being traded as the centerpiece for James Shields and Wade Davis. Mike Montgomery, also in the Shields deal, saw a wide range of rankings as he came in both 8th and 25th.

Toronto Blue Jays

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Aaron Sanchez	RHP	1.00	1	65.0	3.0	High
Roberto Osuna	RHP	2.25	2	57.5	3.5	High
DJ Davis	OF	4.13	3	60.0	4.0	Extreme
Marcus Stroman	RHP	4.38	4	57.5	2.5	Medium
Daniel Norris	LHP	5.14	5	60.0	4.0	Extreme
Sean Nolin	LHP	6.63	6	52.5	2.0	Medium
Matthew Smoral	LHP	6.63	7	60.0	4.0	Extreme
AJ Jimenez	C	8.40	8	50.0	3.0	High
John Stilson	RHP	9.67	9	50.0	2.0	Medium
Santiago Nessy	C	10.40	10	50.0	3.0	High
Alberto Tirado	RHP	10.86	11	57.5	3.5	High
Adonys Cardona	RHP	12.00	12	–	–	–
Anthony Alford	OF	12.00	13	60.0	4.0	Extreme
Jacob Anderson	OF	13.00	14	–	–	–
Chase DeJong	RHP	13.25	15	50.0	3.0	High
Franklin Barreto	SS/OF	13.75	16	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Christian Lopes	SS/2B	13.80	17	50.0	3.0	High
Deck McGuire	RHP	14.67	18	45.0	2.0	Medium
Matthew Dean	3B	14.67	19	50.0	3.0	High
Mitch Nay	3B	15.50	20	50.0	3.0	High
Tyler Gonzales	RHP	15.67	21	50.0	3.0	High
Kevin Pillar	OF	16.00	22	45.0	2.0	Medium
Griffin Murphy	RHP	17.00	23	–	–	–
Dalton Pompey	OF	17.50	24	–	–	–
Dwight Smith	OF	18.00	25	50.0	3.0	High
Andy Burns	INF	18.50	26	–	–	–
Danny Barnes	RHP	20.00	27	–	–	–
Ryan Goins	SS/2B	20.50	28	–	–	–
Jeremy Gabryszwski	RHP	22.50	29	–	–	–
Chad Jenkins	RHP	23.00	30	45.0	2.0	Medium
Ryan Borucki	LHP	24.00	31	–	–	–
Dawel Lugo	SS	24.00	32	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Yeyfry Del Rosario	RHP	24.50	33	45.0	3.0	High
Javier Avendano	RHP	25.00	34	–	–	–
Dickie Thon	SS	25.00	35	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Jairo Labourt	LHP	27.50	36	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Chris Hawkins	OF	28.00	37	45.0	3.0	High

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
52.222	3.130	22	53.864	3.395	5	61.000	3.800

The Blue Jays continue the trend of strong farm systems in the division, but they also have the highest risk rating in the AL. The top of list includes various High to Extreme risk prospects in the ultimate boom-or-bust farm system. All but one of the 60+ prospects have an Extreme rating, and Aaron Sanchez comes in as a High risk.