Building a Farm: National League East
Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.
The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:
- I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
- I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
- Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.
The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.
- AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
- RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
- GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
- RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect based on the determinations by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
- Safe – 0 points
- Low – 1 point
- Medium/Moderate – 2 points
- High – 3 points
- Extreme – 4 points
- RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
- Safe – less than 1
- Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
- Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
- High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
- Extreme – equal to 4
Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.
(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)
Atlanta Braves
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Teheran | RHP | 1.00 | 1 | 60.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| JR Graham | RHP | 2.50 | 2 | 55.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Luke Sims | RHP | 3.25 | 3 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Sean Gilmartin | LHP | 5.13 | 4 | 50.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Christian Bethancourt | C | 5.25 | 5 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Mauricio Cabrera | RHP | 5.75 | 6 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Alex Wood | LHP | 6.25 | 7 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jose Peraza | SS | 9.38 | 8 | 57.5 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Evan Gattis | C/OF | 11.00 | 9 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Todd Cunningham | OF | 11.50 | 10 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Tommy La Stella | 2B | 11.75 | 11 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Matt Lipka | OF | 12.00 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Edward Salcedo | 3B | 13.20 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Cody Martin | RHP | 13.50 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| David Peterson | RHP | 14.00 | 15 | – | – | – |
| Luis Merejo | LHP | 14.50 | 16 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Navery Moore | RHP | 15.75 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Joe Terdoslavich | 1B/OF | 15.75 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| David Hale | RHP | 16.00 | 19 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Aaron Northcraft | RHP | 16.75 | 20 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Juan Jaime | RHP | 17.33 | 21 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Bryan De La Rosa | C | 18.00 | 22 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Josh Elander | C | 18.75 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Luis Avilan | LHP | 19.00 | 24 | – | – | – |
| Carlos Franco | 3B | 20.67 | 25 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Kyle Kubitza | 3B | 21.00 | 26 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| William Beckwith | 1B | 22.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Billy Bullock | RHP | 22.00 | 28 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Cory Gearrin | RHP | 23.00 | 29 | – | – | – |
| Nathan Hyatt | RHP | 24.00 | 30 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Carlos Perez | LHP | 25.00 | 31 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Robby Hefflinger | OF | 26.00 | 32 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Fernelys Sanchez | OF | 27.00 | 33 | – | – | – |
| Daniel Rodriguez | LHP | 28.00 | 34 | – | – | – |
| Justin Black | OF | 29.00 | 35 | – | – | – |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.268 | 2.982 | 20 | 52.375 | 3.025 | 1 | 60.000 | 2.000 |
Trading away several prospects to get a potential superstar isn’t going to help your farm system, but A) trading them got you a superstar and B) the system wasn’t terribly strong before that. Recent promotions have left Julio Teheran as the top prospect with some interesting arms behind him. Jose Peraza, a notable shortstop prospect, saw wide variations in rankings.
Miami Marlins
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Fernandez | RHP | 1.13 | 1 | 70.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Christian Yelich | OF | 1.88 | 2 | 62.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Justin Nicolino | LHP | 4.13 | 3 | 57.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jake Marisnick | OF | 4.13 | 4 | 60.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Andrew Heaney | LHP | 4.25 | 5 | 60.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Marcell Ozuna | OF | 6.38 | 6 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | SS | 7.43 | 7 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Rob Brantly | C | 8.86 | 8 | 47.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Adam Conley | LHP | 9.29 | 9 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| JT Realmuto | C | 9.75 | 10 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jose Urena | RHP | 10.00 | 11 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Derek Dietrich | SS/2B | 10.83 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Mason Hope | RHP | 13.00 | 13 | – | – | – |
| Zack Cox | 3B | 13.33 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Avery Romero | SS | 13.71 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| AJ Ramos | RHP | 14.00 | 16 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Austin Brice | RHP | 14.67 | 17 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Noah Perio | 2B | 15.00 | 18 | – | – | – |
| Alfredo Silverio | OF | 15.67 | 19 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Kolby Copeland | OF | 16.40 | 20 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jesus Solorzano | OF | 16.75 | 21 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Charlie Lowell | LHP | 17.00 | 22 | – | – | – |
| Tom Koehler | RHP | 19.00 | 23 | – | – | – |
| Austin Dean | OF | 19.00 | 24 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Arquimedes Caminero | RHP | 19.00 | 25 | – | – | – |
| Chris Hatcher | RHP | 21.00 | 26 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Grant Dayton | LHP | 21.50 | 27 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Chad James | LHP | 22.00 | 28 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Austin Barnes | 2B | 22.00 | 29 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brian Flynn | LHP | 22.00 | 30 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Raudel Lazo | LHP | 22.00 | 31 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jake Esch | RHP | 23.00 | 32 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Jose Ceda | RHP | 27.00 | 33 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Danny Black | SS | 28.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brent Keys | OF | 30.00 | 35 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.083 | 2.750 | 20 | 54.000 | 2.950 | 4 | 63.125 | 2.250 |
The massive trade with Toronto crippled the major-league team, but the Marlins did grab some farm talent in the deal. The very top prospects have fairly low risks, and we’ll get to see top prospect, Jose Fernandez, surprisingly start the season in Miami. Avery Romero and Austin Brice both received a few top 10 mentions while also being late in top 20s.
New York Mets
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | RHP | 1.25 | 1 | 67.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Travis d’Arnaud | C | 1.75 | 2 | 60.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Noah Syndergaard | RHP | 3.00 | 3 | 65.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Wilmer Flores | 3B | 5.88 | 4 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Michael Fulmer | RHP | 6.43 | 5 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brandon Nimmo | OF | 6.75 | 6 | 52.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Gavin Cecchini | SS | 7.25 | 7 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Rafael Montero | RHP | 7.38 | 8 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Jeurys Familia | RHP | 8.00 | 9 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Luis Mateo | RHP | 8.50 | 10 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Domingo Tapia | RHP | 8.63 | 11 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Jake DeGrom | RHP | 12.00 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Rainy Lara | RHP | 13.00 | 13 | – | – | – |
| Cory Mazzoni | RHP | 14.00 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Hansel Robles | RHP | 14.67 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Matt Den Dekker | OF | 15.33 | 16 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Wilfredo Tovar | SS | 15.67 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Kevin Plawecki | C | 15.83 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Cesar Puello | OF | 17.00 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Philip Evans | SS | 18.00 | 20 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Matthew Reynolds | 3B | 18.00 | 21 | – | – | – |
| Aderlin Rodriguez | 3B | 18.00 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Gabriel Ynoa | RHP | 18.33 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Cory Vaughn | OF | 19.00 | 24 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Danny Muno | INF | 19.00 | 25 | – | – | – |
| Robert Carson | LHP | 19.00 | 26 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| German Rosario | SS | 20.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Jack Leathersich | LHP | 20.25 | 28 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Collin McHugh | RHP | 21.50 | 29 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Steve Matz | LHP | 22.33 | 30 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Logan Verrett | RHP | 24.33 | 31 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Matt Reynolds | SS | 25.00 | 32 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Juan Lagares | OF | 26.00 | 33 | – | – | – |
| Amed Rosario | SS | 26.00 | 34 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Wuilmer Becerra | OF | 26.00 | 35 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Tyler Pill | RHP | 27.00 | 36 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Vicente Lupo | OF | 27.00 | 37 | – | – | – |
| Darrell Ceciliani | OF | 29.00 | 38 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Cam Maron | C | 32.00 | 39 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.530 | 2.788 | 25 | 52.300 | 3.000 | 3 | 64.167 | 2.167 |
The Toronto Blue Jays continued to add to NL East farm systems, this time in New York in the process of acquiring R.A. Dickey. Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard combine with Zack Wheeler to give the Mets a strong top of the system. Following them are several high-risk/high-reward players to keep an eye on.
Philadelphia Phillies
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Biddle | LHP | 1.38 | 1 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Adam Morgan | LHP | 3.13 | 2 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Roman Quinn | SS | 3.25 | 3 | 60.0 | 3.5 | High |
| Tommy Joseph | C | 4.38 | 4 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jonathan Pettibone | RHP | 5.25 | 5 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Maikel Franco | 3B | 6.38 | 6 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Ethan Martin | RHP | 6.50 | 7 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Cody Asche | 3B | 7.29 | 8 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Shane Watson | RHP | 10.00 | 9 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Carlos Tocci | OF | 10.17 | 10 | 57.5 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Darin Ruf | OF | 10.20 | 11 | 45.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Larry Greene | OF | 10.25 | 12 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Sebastian Valle | C | 12.20 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Phillippe Aumont | RHP | 12.20 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Kenny Giles | RHP | 13.50 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Austin Wright | LHP | 14.00 | 16 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Gabriel Lino | C | 14.00 | 17 | – | – | – |
| Cesar Hernandez | 2B | 15.00 | 18 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Mitch Gueller | RHP | 15.25 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Kevin Btady | RHP | 16.00 | 20 | – | – | – |
| Justin DeFratus | RHP | 17.00 | 21 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Kelly Dugan | OF | 18.00 | 22 | – | – | – |
| Mitch Walding | 3B | 18.00 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Hoby Milner | LHP | 20.00 | 24 | – | – | – |
| Brody Colvin | RHP | 20.00 | 25 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tyler Cloyd | RHP | 21.00 | 26 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Cameron Rupp | C | 22.00 | 27 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Andrew Pullin | OF | 23.50 | 28 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Zach Collier | OF | 24.00 | 29 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Kyle Simon | RHP | 24.50 | 30 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Aaron Altherr | OF | 25.00 | 31 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tyson Gillies | OF | 26.00 | 32 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Dylan Cozens | 1B | 27.00 | 33 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Kyrell Hudson | OF | 29.00 | 34 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.000 | 2.767 | 19 | 53.158 | 3.000 | 1 | 60.000 | 3.500 |
The Phillies don’t have a ton of upper-echelon prospects, but they do have some lower risk prospects at the top. Jesse Biddle, Adam Morgan, and John Pettibone give the Phillies potential rotation options, and high volatility prospects Roman Quinn and Maikel Franco give the system a little upside.
Washington Nationals
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rendon | 3B | 1.13 | 1 | 65.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brian Goodwin | OF | 2.25 | 2 | 60.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Lucas Giolito | RHP | 2.75 | 3 | 70.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| AJ Cole | RHP | 3.83 | 4 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Matt Skole | 3B | 6.00 | 5 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Nathan Karns | RHP | 6.71 | 6 | 52.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Daniel Rosenbaum | LHP | 7.00 | 7 | – | – | – |
| Eury Perez | OF | 8.00 | 8 | 50.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Christian Garcia | RHP | 8.40 | 9 | 50.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Matt Purke | LHP | 8.43 | 10 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Sammy Solis | LHP | 8.80 | 11 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Michael Taylor | OF | 11.00 | 12 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Stephen Perez | SS | 11.00 | 13 | – | – | – |
| Destin Hood | OF | 11.60 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tony Renda | 2B | 12.00 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Zach Walters | SS | 12.40 | 16 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Robbie Ray | LHP | 13.00 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brett Mooneyham | LHP | 13.80 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Cutter Dykstra | 2B/3B | 14.00 | 19 | – | – | – |
| Sandy Leon | C | 14.67 | 20 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Chris Marrero | 1B | 15.67 | 21 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Carlos Rivero | 3B | 16.67 | 22 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Taylor Jordan | RHP | 16.67 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jason Martinson | SS | 16.75 | 24 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Rick Hauge | SS | 17.00 | 25 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brandon Miller | OF | 17.25 | 26 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Estarlin Martinez | OF | 19.00 | 27 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Steven Souza | OF | 20.00 | 28 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Aaron Barrett | RHP | 20.00 | 29 | – | – | – |
| Corey Brown | OF | 21.00 | 30 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Billy Burns | OF | 21.00 | 31 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Ivan Pineyro | RHP | 28.00 | 32 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Paul Demny | RHP | 29.00 | 33 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Wirkin Estevez | RHP | 30.00 | 34 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Jhonatan Solano | C | 31.00 | 35 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.645 | 2.823 | 23 | 52.826 | 3.065 | 3 | 65.000 | 3.333 |
The Nationals farm system has weakened in the past few seasons, but that’s mainly because of graduations and trades. Anthony Rendon, Brian Goodwin, and Lucas Giolito, however, give the Nationals an enviable trio at the top. Michael Taylor (no, not that one) is another guy who could add some star-power to the list, but everyone’s not sold on him yet.
Tough to imagine a division that translates its prospects to the majors better than the NL East. It seems the Mets are finally headed in the right direction, now just to get rid of Loria and Amaro, Jr, although Philly’s farm put nearly this same team on the field 6 or 7 years ago.
The Braves and Nationals have certainly done an excellent job lately, and the Mets and Marlins have some top-tier prospects to do it in the near future.