Building a Farm: National League East

Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.

The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:

• I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
• I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
• Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.

The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.

• AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
• RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
• GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
• RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect based on the determinations by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
  • Safe – 0 points
  • Low – 1 point
  • Medium/Moderate – 2 points
  • High – 3 points
  • Extreme – 4 points
• RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
  • Safe – less than 1
  • Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
  • Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
  • High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
  • Extreme – equal to 4

Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.

(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)

Atlanta Braves

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Julio Teheran	RHP	1.00	1	60.0	2.0	Medium
JR Graham	RHP	2.50	2	55.0	2.0	Medium
Luke Sims	RHP	3.25	3	57.5	3.0	High
Sean Gilmartin	LHP	5.13	4	50.0	1.5	Low
Christian Bethancourt	C	5.25	5	57.5	3.5	High
Mauricio Cabrera	RHP	5.75	6	57.5	3.5	High
Alex Wood	LHP	6.25	7	52.5	2.0	Medium
Jose Peraza	SS	9.38	8	57.5	4.0	Extreme
Evan Gattis	C/OF	11.00	9	50.0	3.0	High
Todd Cunningham	OF	11.50	10	45.0	2.0	Medium
Tommy La Stella	2B	11.75	11	50.0	2.0	Medium
Matt Lipka	OF	12.00	12	50.0	3.0	High
Edward Salcedo	3B	13.20	13	50.0	3.0	High
Cody Martin	RHP	13.50	14	50.0	3.0	High
David Peterson	RHP	14.00	15	–	–	–
Luis Merejo	LHP	14.50	16	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Navery Moore	RHP	15.75	17	50.0	3.0	High
Joe Terdoslavich	1B/OF	15.75	18	50.0	3.0	High
David Hale	RHP	16.00	19	45.0	3.0	High
Aaron Northcraft	RHP	16.75	20	45.0	3.0	High
Juan Jaime	RHP	17.33	21	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Bryan De La Rosa	C	18.00	22	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Josh Elander	C	18.75	23	50.0	3.0	High
Luis Avilan	LHP	19.00	24	–	–	–
Carlos Franco	3B	20.67	25	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Kyle Kubitza	3B	21.00	26	45.0	3.0	High
William Beckwith	1B	22.00	27	–	–	–
Billy Bullock	RHP	22.00	28	45.0	3.0	High
Cory Gearrin	RHP	23.00	29	–	–	–
Nathan Hyatt	RHP	24.00	30	45.0	3.0	High
Carlos Perez	LHP	25.00	31	45.0	3.0	High
Robby Hefflinger	OF	26.00	32	45.0	3.0	High
Fernelys Sanchez	OF	27.00	33	–	–	–
Daniel Rodriguez	LHP	28.00	34	–	–	–
Justin Black	OF	29.00	35	–	–	–

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
50.268	2.982	20	52.375	3.025	1	60.000	2.000

Trading away several prospects to get a potential superstar isn’t going to help your farm system, but A) trading them got you a superstar and B) the system wasn’t terribly strong before that. Recent promotions have left Julio Teheran as the top prospect with some interesting arms behind him. Jose Peraza, a notable shortstop prospect, saw wide variations in rankings.

Miami Marlins

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Jose Fernandez	RHP	1.13	1	70.0	2.0	Medium
Christian Yelich	OF	1.88	2	62.5	2.0	Medium
Justin Nicolino	LHP	4.13	3	57.5	2.0	Medium
Jake Marisnick	OF	4.13	4	60.0	3.0	High
Andrew Heaney	LHP	4.25	5	60.0	2.0	Medium
Marcell Ozuna	OF	6.38	6	55.0	3.0	High
Adeiny Hechavarria	SS	7.43	7	50.0	2.0	Medium
Rob Brantly	C	8.86	8	47.5	1.5	Low
Adam Conley	LHP	9.29	9	50.0	3.0	High
JT Realmuto	C	9.75	10	50.0	3.0	High
Jose Urena	RHP	10.00	11	55.0	3.0	High
Derek Dietrich	SS/2B	10.83	12	50.0	3.0	High
Mason Hope	RHP	13.00	13	–	–	–
Zack Cox	3B	13.33	14	50.0	3.0	High
Avery Romero	SS	13.71	15	50.0	3.0	High
AJ Ramos	RHP	14.00	16	45.0	2.0	Medium
Austin Brice	RHP	14.67	17	55.0	3.0	High
Noah Perio	2B	15.00	18	–	–	–
Alfredo Silverio	OF	15.67	19	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Kolby Copeland	OF	16.40	20	50.0	3.0	High
Jesus Solorzano	OF	16.75	21	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Charlie Lowell	LHP	17.00	22	–	–	–
Tom Koehler	RHP	19.00	23	–	–	–
Austin Dean	OF	19.00	24	50.0	3.0	High
Arquimedes Caminero	RHP	19.00	25	–	–	–
Chris Hatcher	RHP	21.00	26	45.0	2.0	Medium
Grant Dayton	LHP	21.50	27	45.0	2.0	Medium
Chad James	LHP	22.00	28	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Austin Barnes	2B	22.00	29	45.0	3.0	High
Brian Flynn	LHP	22.00	30	45.0	2.0	Medium
Raudel Lazo	LHP	22.00	31	45.0	2.0	Medium
Jake Esch	RHP	23.00	32	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Jose Ceda	RHP	27.00	33	45.0	3.0	High
Danny Black	SS	28.00	34	45.0	3.0	High
Brent Keys	OF	30.00	35	45.0	3.0	High

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
51.083	2.750	20	54.000	2.950	4	63.125	2.250

The massive trade with Toronto crippled the major-league team, but the Marlins did grab some farm talent in the deal. The very top prospects have fairly low risks, and we’ll get to see top prospect, Jose Fernandez, surprisingly start the season in Miami. Avery Romero and Austin Brice both received a few top 10 mentions while also being late in top 20s.

New York Mets

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Zack Wheeler	RHP	1.25	1	67.5	2.0	Medium
Travis d’Arnaud	C	1.75	2	60.0	1.5	Low
Noah Syndergaard	RHP	3.00	3	65.0	3.0	High
Wilmer Flores	3B	5.88	4	50.0	3.0	High
Michael Fulmer	RHP	6.43	5	55.0	3.0	High
Brandon Nimmo	OF	6.75	6	52.5	3.5	High
Gavin Cecchini	SS	7.25	7	52.5	3.0	High
Rafael Montero	RHP	7.38	8	52.5	3.0	High
Jeurys Familia	RHP	8.00	9	50.0	2.0	Medium
Luis Mateo	RHP	8.50	10	50.0	3.0	High
Domingo Tapia	RHP	8.63	11	52.5	3.0	High
Jake DeGrom	RHP	12.00	12	50.0	3.0	High
Rainy Lara	RHP	13.00	13	–	–	–
Cory Mazzoni	RHP	14.00	14	50.0	3.0	High
Hansel Robles	RHP	14.67	15	50.0	3.0	High
Matt Den Dekker	OF	15.33	16	45.0	2.0	Medium
Wilfredo Tovar	SS	15.67	17	50.0	3.0	High
Kevin Plawecki	C	15.83	18	50.0	3.0	High
Cesar Puello	OF	17.00	19	50.0	3.0	High
Philip Evans	SS	18.00	20	50.0	3.0	High
Matthew Reynolds	3B	18.00	21	–	–	–
Aderlin Rodriguez	3B	18.00	22	50.0	3.0	High
Gabriel Ynoa	RHP	18.33	23	50.0	3.0	High
Cory Vaughn	OF	19.00	24	50.0	3.0	High
Danny Muno	INF	19.00	25	–	–	–
Robert Carson	LHP	19.00	26	45.0	2.0	Medium
German Rosario	SS	20.00	27	–	–	–
Jack Leathersich	LHP	20.25	28	45.0	2.0	Medium
Collin McHugh	RHP	21.50	29	45.0	2.0	Medium
Steve Matz	LHP	22.33	30	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Logan Verrett	RHP	24.33	31	45.0	2.0	Medium
Matt Reynolds	SS	25.00	32	50.0	3.0	High
Juan Lagares	OF	26.00	33	–	–	–
Amed Rosario	SS	26.00	34	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Wuilmer Becerra	OF	26.00	35	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Tyler Pill	RHP	27.00	36	45.0	2.0	Medium
Vicente Lupo	OF	27.00	37	–	–	–
Darrell Ceciliani	OF	29.00	38	45.0	2.0	Medium
Cam Maron	C	32.00	39	45.0	3.0	High

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
50.530	2.788	25	52.300	3.000	3	64.167	2.167

The Toronto Blue Jays continued to add to NL East farm systems, this time in New York in the process of acquiring R.A. Dickey. Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard combine with Zack Wheeler to give the Mets a strong top of the system. Following them are several high-risk/high-reward players to keep an eye on.

Philadelphia Phillies

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Jesse Biddle	LHP	1.38	1	57.5	2.5	Medium
Adam Morgan	LHP	3.13	2	57.5	2.5	Medium
Roman Quinn	SS	3.25	3	60.0	3.5	High
Tommy Joseph	C	4.38	4	52.5	2.0	Medium
Jonathan Pettibone	RHP	5.25	5	50.0	2.0	Medium
Maikel Franco	3B	6.38	6	57.5	3.0	High
Ethan Martin	RHP	6.50	7	57.5	2.5	Medium
Cody Asche	3B	7.29	8	50.0	2.0	Medium
Shane Watson	RHP	10.00	9	55.0	3.0	High
Carlos Tocci	OF	10.17	10	57.5	4.0	Extreme
Darin Ruf	OF	10.20	11	45.0	1.0	Low
Larry Greene	OF	10.25	12	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Sebastian Valle	C	12.20	13	50.0	3.0	High
Phillippe Aumont	RHP	12.20	14	50.0	3.0	High
Kenny Giles	RHP	13.50	15	50.0	3.0	High
Austin Wright	LHP	14.00	16	50.0	3.0	High
Gabriel Lino	C	14.00	17	–	–	–
Cesar Hernandez	2B	15.00	18	45.0	2.0	Medium
Mitch Gueller	RHP	15.25	19	50.0	3.0	High
Kevin Btady	RHP	16.00	20	–	–	–
Justin DeFratus	RHP	17.00	21	45.0	2.0	Medium
Kelly Dugan	OF	18.00	22	–	–	–
Mitch Walding	3B	18.00	23	50.0	3.0	High
Hoby Milner	LHP	20.00	24	–	–	–
Brody Colvin	RHP	20.00	25	45.0	3.0	High
Tyler Cloyd	RHP	21.00	26	40.0	1.0	Low
Cameron Rupp	C	22.00	27	45.0	2.0	Medium
Andrew Pullin	OF	23.50	28	45.0	3.0	High
Zach Collier	OF	24.00	29	45.0	3.0	High
Kyle Simon	RHP	24.50	30	45.0	3.0	High
Aaron Altherr	OF	25.00	31	45.0	3.0	High
Tyson Gillies	OF	26.00	32	45.0	3.0	High
Dylan Cozens	1B	27.00	33	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Kyrell Hudson	OF	29.00	34	50.0	4.0	Extreme

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
50.000	2.767	19	53.158	3.000	1	60.000	3.500

The Phillies don’t have a ton of upper-echelon prospects, but they do have some lower risk prospects at the top. Jesse Biddle, Adam Morgan, and John Pettibone give the Phillies potential rotation options, and high volatility prospects Roman Quinn and Maikel Franco give the system a little upside.

Washington Nationals

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Anthony Rendon	3B	1.13	1	65.0	3.0	High
Brian Goodwin	OF	2.25	2	60.0	3.0	High
Lucas Giolito	RHP	2.75	3	70.0	4.0	Extreme
AJ Cole	RHP	3.83	4	57.5	3.0	High
Matt Skole	3B	6.00	5	50.0	2.0	Medium
Nathan Karns	RHP	6.71	6	52.5	2.5	Medium
Daniel Rosenbaum	LHP	7.00	7	–	–	–
Eury Perez	OF	8.00	8	50.0	1.5	Low
Christian Garcia	RHP	8.40	9	50.0	1.5	Low
Matt Purke	LHP	8.43	10	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Sammy Solis	LHP	8.80	11	50.0	3.0	High
Michael Taylor	OF	11.00	12	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Stephen Perez	SS	11.00	13	–	–	–
Destin Hood	OF	11.60	14	50.0	3.0	High
Tony Renda	2B	12.00	15	50.0	3.0	High
Zach Walters	SS	12.40	16	45.0	2.0	Medium
Robbie Ray	LHP	13.00	17	50.0	3.0	High
Brett Mooneyham	LHP	13.80	18	50.0	3.0	High
Cutter Dykstra	2B/3B	14.00	19	–	–	–
Sandy Leon	C	14.67	20	45.0	2.0	Medium
Chris Marrero	1B	15.67	21	45.0	2.0	Medium
Carlos Rivero	3B	16.67	22	45.0	2.0	Medium
Taylor Jordan	RHP	16.67	23	50.0	3.0	High
Jason Martinson	SS	16.75	24	50.0	3.0	High
Rick Hauge	SS	17.00	25	50.0	3.0	High
Brandon Miller	OF	17.25	26	50.0	3.0	High
Estarlin Martinez	OF	19.00	27	50.0	3.0	High
Steven Souza	OF	20.00	28	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Aaron Barrett	RHP	20.00	29	–	–	–
Corey Brown	OF	21.00	30	45.0	2.0	Medium
Billy Burns	OF	21.00	31	45.0	3.0	High
Ivan Pineyro	RHP	28.00	32	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Paul Demny	RHP	29.00	33	45.0	3.0	High
Wirkin Estevez	RHP	30.00	34	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Jhonatan Solano	C	31.00	35	40.0	1.0	Low

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
50.645	2.823	23	52.826	3.065	3	65.000	3.333

The Nationals farm system has weakened in the past few seasons, but that’s mainly because of graduations and trades. Anthony Rendon, Brian Goodwin, and Lucas Giolito, however, give the Nationals an enviable trio at the top. Michael Taylor (no, not that one) is another guy who could add some star-power to the list, but everyone’s not sold on him yet.