Building a Farm: National League West
Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.
The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:
- I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
- I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
- Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.
The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.
- AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
- RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
- GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
- RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect based on the determinations by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
- Safe – 0 points
- Low – 1 point
- Medium/Moderate – 2 points
- High – 3 points
- Extreme – 4 points
- RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
- Safe – less than 1
- Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
- Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
- High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
- Extreme – equal to 4
Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.
(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Skaggs | LHP | 1.00 | 1 | 62.5 | 1.0 | Low |
| Archie Bradley | RHP | 2.00 | 2 | 70.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Matt Davidson | 3B | 4.13 | 3 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Adam Eaton | OF | 4.75 | 4 | 52.5 | 1.0 | Low |
| Didi Gregorius | SS | 5.13 | 5 | 52.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Chris Owings | SS | 6.50 | 6 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Stryker Trahan | C | 6.75 | 7 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| David Holmberg | LHP | 6.86 | 8 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Andrew Chafin | LHP | 10.13 | 9 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| AJ Pollock | OF | 10.57 | 10 | 47.5 | 1.0 | Low |
| Anthony Meo | RHP | 11.83 | 11 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Nick Ahmed | SS | 12.40 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Michael Perez | C | 12.43 | 13 | 55.0 | 3.5 | High |
| Zeke Spruill | RHP | 13.00 | 14 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Ryan Wheeler | 1B/3B | 14.00 | 15 | – | – | – |
| Chase Anderson | LHP | 14.50 | 16 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Fidel Pena | C | 16.00 | 17 | – | – | – |
| Alfredo Marte | OF | 16.33 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Felipe Perez | RHP | 16.50 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Evan Marshall | RHP | 16.75 | 20 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jake Barrett | RHP | 17.67 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Joe Munoz | SS | 18.00 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Keon Broxton | OF | 18.67 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jake Lamb | 3B | 18.75 | 24 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jonathan Griffin | 1B | 19.00 | 25 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Eury De La Rosa | LHP | 22.00 | 26 | – | – | – |
| Matt Gorgen | RHP | 23.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Starling Peralta | RHP | 23.67 | 28 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Ben Eckels | RHP | 24.00 | 29 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Kyle Winkler | RHP | 25.00 | 30 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Evan Marzilli | OF | 26.33 | 31 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brandon Drury | 1B/3B | 27.00 | 32 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Gerson Montilla | 2B | 27.00 | 33 | – | – | – |
| Andrew Velazquez | 2B/SS | 28.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jose Martinez | RHP | 28.00 | 35 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Cody Wheeler | LHP | 28.00 | 36 | – | – | – |
| Tyler Green | RHP | 30.00 | 37 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Kevin Munson | RHP | 31.00 | 38 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Socrates Brito | OF | 32.00 | 39 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.152 | 2.727 | 22 | 52.614 | 2.818 | 2 | 66.250 | 2.000 |
The Diamondbacks don’t have a knockout farm system, but they have two top arms and a few up-the-middle players that should be big league regulars heading the list. Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley go 1-2 on every list, and the next six on the list go back-and-forth. Andrew Chafin and Zeke Spruill saw the widest range of rankings.
Colorado Rockies
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Dahl | OF | 1.63 | 1 | 65.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Trevor Story | SS | 2.13 | 2 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 2.25 | 3 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Kyle Parker | OF | 4.75 | 4 | 50.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Chad Bettis | RHP | 6.38 | 5 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tyler Anderson | LHP | 6.88 | 6 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Eddie Butler | RHP | 7.71 | 7 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tyler Matzek | LHP | 8.50 | 8 | 60.0 | 3.5 | High |
| Edwar Cabrera | LHP | 9.17 | 9 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Will Swanner | C | 11.14 | 10 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Corey Dickerson | OF | 11.20 | 11 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tim Wheeler | OF | 11.29 | 12 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jayson Aquino | LHP | 11.29 | 13 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Ryan Wheeler | 3B | 11.33 | 14 | 45.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Rafael Ortega | OF | 12.57 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tom Murphy | C | 13.20 | 16 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Rosell Herrera | SS | 13.67 | 17 | – | – | – |
| Kent Matthes | OF | 16.00 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Rob Scahill | RHP | 16.67 | 19 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Josh Sullivan | RHP | 18.00 | 20 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Joe Gardner | RHP | 18.33 | 21 | – | – | – |
| Christhian Adames | SS | 18.67 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Charlie Culberson | 2B | 19.00 | 23 | – | – | – |
| Daniel Rosenbaum | LHP | 20.50 | 24 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Wilfredo Rodriguez | C | 21.33 | 25 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Harold Riggins | 1B | 21.50 | 26 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Taylor Featherston | 2B | 22.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Julian Yan | OF | 22.00 | 28 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Peter Tago | RHP | 23.00 | 29 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Seth Willoughby | RHP | 24.00 | 30 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Max White | OF | 25.00 | 31 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Ryan Warner | RHP | 26.00 | 32 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Christian Bergman | RHP | 26.50 | 33 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Sam Mende | 3B | 27.00 | 34 | – | – | – |
| Zach Putnam | RHP | 28.00 | 35 | – | – | – |
| Parker Frazier | RHP | 29.50 | 36 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Ryan Garvey | OF | 30.00 | 37 | – | – | – |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.917 | 2.717 | 22 | 51.932 | 3.023 | 2 | 62.500 | 3.250 |
David Dahl won out in the midst of a strong troika at the top of the list with Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. After those three, the talent in the system drops off fairly quickly. Evaluators were the most fickle with Will Swanner as they attempted to weigh his chances of sticking behind the plate with the potential ceiling of his bat.
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasiel Puig | OF | 1.75 | 1 | 62.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Corey Seager | 3B | 2.50 | 2 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Zach Lee | RHP | 2.63 | 3 | 55.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Hyu-Jin Ryu | LHP | 4.25 | 4 | 52.5 | 1.0 | Low |
| Joc Pederson | OF | 4.63 | 5 | 52.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Chris Reed | LHP | 5.50 | 6 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Matt Magill | RHP | 6.71 | 7 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Onelki Garcia | LHP | 7.25 | 8 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Chris Withrow | RHP | 9.75 | 9 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Paco Rodriguez | LHP | 10.83 | 10 | 45.0 | 0.0 | Safe |
| Jesmuel Valentin | SS | 11.67 | 11 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Garrett Gould | RHP | 11.83 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tim Federowicz | C | 12.00 | 13 | 45.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Zach Bird | RHP | 13.25 | 14 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Ross Stripling | RHP | 13.43 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Alex Castellanos | OF | 13.50 | 16 | 55.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Yimi Garcia | RHP | 14.00 | 17 | – | – | – |
| Rob Rasmussen | LHP | 14.67 | 18 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jonathan Rodriguez | RHP | 15.00 | 19 | – | – | – |
| Bobby Coyle | OF | 16.00 | 20 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Stephen Ames | RHP | 16.67 | 21 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Julio Urias | LHP | 17.00 | 22 | – | – | – |
| Angel Sanchez | RHP | 17.00 | 23 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Alex Santana | 3B | 17.75 | 24 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Scott Van Slyke | OF/1B | 18.00 | 25 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Darnell Sweeney | SS | 18.00 | 26 | – | – | – |
| James Baldwin | OF | 18.67 | 27 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Scott Griggs | RHP | 19.00 | 28 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Aaron Miller | RHP | 19.50 | 29 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Josh Wall | RHP | 21.00 | 30 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Blake Smith | OF | 24.50 | 31 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jeremy Rathjen | OF | 24.50 | 32 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Scott Barlow | RHP | 25.00 | 33 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Brian Cavazos-Galvez | OF | 27.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.000 | 2.467 | 19 | 52.895 | 2.842 | 1 | 62.500 | 3.500 |
Newcomers Yasiel Puig and Corey Seager battled Zach Lee for the top spot on the Dodgers’ list. Hyu-Jin Ryu was only on a few lists due to how various lists handled his pro status, but his ranking here seems appropriate in a system without much depth. This system, however, does have the lowest risk of any system so far.
San Diego Padres
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | C | 2.63 | 1 | 65.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Max Fried | LHP | 2.88 | 2 | 62.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Jedd Gyorko | 3B | 3.25 | 3 | 52.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Rymer Liriano | OF | 3.63 | 4 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Casey Kelly | RHP | 4.00 | 5 | 52.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Robbie Erlin | LHP | 7.25 | 6 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Matt Wisler | RHP | 8.00 | 7 | 52.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Joe Ross | RHP | 8.25 | 8 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Joe Wieland | RHP | 8.67 | 9 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Adys Portillo | RHP | 10.00 | 10 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Cory Spangenberg | 2B | 10.29 | 11 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jonathan Galvez | 2B | 11.00 | 12 | – | – | – |
| Keyvius Sampson | RHP | 11.17 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Zach Eflin | RHP | 11.71 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Walker Weickel | RHP | 11.86 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Edinson Rincon | 3B | 12.00 | 16 | – | – | – |
| Jace Peterson | SS | 13.20 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Donn Roach | RHP | 15.25 | 18 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Brad Boxberger | RHP | 15.67 | 19 | 45.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| James Darnell | 3B/OF | 16.00 | 20 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Travis Jankowski | OF | 16.50 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Fernando Perez | 3B | 17.00 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Cody Hebner | RHP | 18.00 | 23 | – | – | – |
| Blake Tekotte | OF | 19.00 | 24 | – | – | – |
| Matt Andriese | RHP | 19.50 | 25 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Burch Smith | RHP | 19.67 | 26 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Rodeny Daal | C | 21.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| John Barbato | RHP | 21.67 | 28 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jaff Decker | OF | 22.50 | 29 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Rico Noel | OF | 23.00 | 30 | – | – | – |
| Matt Stites | RHP | 23.50 | 31 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Yeison Asencio | OF | 24.00 | 32 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Henry Charles | OF | 24.00 | 33 | – | – | – |
| Kevin Quackenbush | RHP | 24.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Miles Mikolas | RHP | 25.00 | 35 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Juan Oramas | LHP | 26.00 | 36 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Mallex Smith | OF | 28.00 | 37 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.500 | 2.633 | 22 | 52.500 | 2.818 | 2 | 63.750 | 3.000 |
I expected the Padres’ system to grade out better than this due to depth, but while it has a lower overall risk, it doesn’t have many high ceiling players either. The two prospects that fit that description – Austin Hedges and Max Fried – head the list, and they are followed by a few guys who may play in the majors in the near future.
San Francisco Giants
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Crick | RHP | 1.00 | 1 | 62.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Chris Stratton | RHP | 2.75 | 2 | 55.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Gary Brown | OF | 3.38 | 3 | 55.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Clayton Blackburn | RHP | 4.50 | 4 | 52.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Joe Panik | SS | 5.25 | 5 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Heath Hembree | RHP | 6.00 | 6 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Mike Kickham | LHP | 7.29 | 7 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Francisco Peguero | OF | 8.80 | 8 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Martin Agosta | RHP | 9.29 | 9 | 50.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Mac Williamson | OF | 9.83 | 10 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Bryce Bandilla | LHP | 10.00 | 11 | – | – | – |
| Andrew Susac | C | 10.25 | 12 | 52.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Roger Kieschnick | OF | 11.50 | 13 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Chris Heston | RHP | 12.33 | 14 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Gustavo Cabrera | OF | 13.00 | 15 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Adalberto Mejia | RHP | 13.20 | 16 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Edwin Escobar | LHP | 13.60 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Josh Osich | LHP | 13.75 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Adam Duvall | 3B | 14.25 | 19 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| EJ Encinosa | RHP | 15.00 | 20 | – | – | – |
| Joan Gregorio | RHP | 15.00 | 21 | – | – | – |
| Steven Okert | LHP | 15.50 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Stephen Johnson | RHP | 15.50 | 23 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Eric Surkamp | LHP | 15.67 | 24 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Ehire Adrianza | SS | 17.00 | 25 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Christopher Marlowe | RHP | 19.00 | 26 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Ty Blach | LHP | 19.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Juan Perez | PF | 21.00 | 28 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Ricky Oropesa | 1B | 21.33 | 29 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brett Bochy | RHP | 22.50 | 30 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Nick Noonan | SS | 23.00 | 31 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Cody Hall | RHP | 26.00 | 32 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jacob Dunnington | RHP | 28.00 | 33 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Shawn Payne | OF | 29.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.167 | 2.617 | 18 | 52.222 | 2.750 | 1 | 62.500 | 3.000 |
Following suit with the rest of the division, the Giants have a middle-of-the-road farm system that doesn’t carry much risk relative to other systems. Kyle Crick heads the lit by breaking that mold, but the rest of the better prospects have a lower ceiling with a lower risk. Bruce Bochy’s son Brett was the Giant giving evaluators the most fits in this system.
Nice work! Next year, maybe I’ll be lazy and wait for your distillation of lists rather than synthesizing as they come out.