Building a Farm: National League West

Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.

The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:

• I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
• I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
• Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.

The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.

• AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
• RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
• GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
• RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect based on the determinations by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
  • Safe – 0 points
  • Low – 1 point
  • Medium/Moderate – 2 points
  • High – 3 points
  • Extreme – 4 points
• RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
  • Safe – less than 1
  • Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
  • Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
  • High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
  • Extreme – equal to 4

Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.

(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Tyler Skaggs	LHP	1.00	1	62.5	1.0	Low
Archie Bradley	RHP	2.00	2	70.0	3.0	High
Matt Davidson	3B	4.13	3	52.5	2.0	Medium
Adam Eaton	OF	4.75	4	52.5	1.0	Low
Didi Gregorius	SS	5.13	5	52.5	1.5	Low
Chris Owings	SS	6.50	6	52.5	3.0	High
Stryker Trahan	C	6.75	7	55.0	3.0	High
David Holmberg	LHP	6.86	8	50.0	2.0	Medium
Andrew Chafin	LHP	10.13	9	55.0	3.0	High
AJ Pollock	OF	10.57	10	47.5	1.0	Low
Anthony Meo	RHP	11.83	11	50.0	3.0	High
Nick Ahmed	SS	12.40	12	50.0	3.0	High
Michael Perez	C	12.43	13	55.0	3.5	High
Zeke Spruill	RHP	13.00	14	45.0	2.0	Medium
Ryan Wheeler	1B/3B	14.00	15	–	–	–
Chase Anderson	LHP	14.50	16	45.0	2.0	Medium
Fidel Pena	C	16.00	17	–	–	–
Alfredo Marte	OF	16.33	18	50.0	3.0	High
Felipe Perez	RHP	16.50	19	50.0	3.0	High
Evan Marshall	RHP	16.75	20	45.0	2.0	Medium
Jake Barrett	RHP	17.67	21	50.0	3.0	High
Joe Munoz	SS	18.00	22	50.0	3.0	High
Keon Broxton	OF	18.67	23	50.0	3.0	High
Jake Lamb	3B	18.75	24	50.0	3.0	High
Jonathan Griffin	1B	19.00	25	50.0	3.0	High
Eury De La Rosa	LHP	22.00	26	–	–	–
Matt Gorgen	RHP	23.00	27	–	–	–
Starling Peralta	RHP	23.67	28	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Ben Eckels	RHP	24.00	29	45.0	3.0	High
Kyle Winkler	RHP	25.00	30	45.0	3.0	High
Evan Marzilli	OF	26.33	31	45.0	3.0	High
Brandon Drury	1B/3B	27.00	32	45.0	3.0	High
Gerson Montilla	2B	27.00	33	–	–	–
Andrew Velazquez	2B/SS	28.00	34	45.0	3.0	High
Jose Martinez	RHP	28.00	35	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Cody Wheeler	LHP	28.00	36	–	–	–
Tyler Green	RHP	30.00	37	45.0	3.0	High
Kevin Munson	RHP	31.00	38	45.0	3.0	High
Socrates Brito	OF	32.00	39	50.0	4.0	Extreme

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
50.152	2.727	22	52.614	2.818	2	66.250	2.000

The Diamondbacks don’t have a knockout farm system, but they have two top arms and a few up-the-middle players that should be big league regulars heading the list. Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley go 1-2 on every list, and the next six on the list go back-and-forth. Andrew Chafin and Zeke Spruill saw the widest range of rankings.

Colorado Rockies

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
David Dahl	OF	1.63	1	65.0	3.0	High
Trevor Story	SS	2.13	2	57.5	2.5	Medium
Nolan Arenado	3B	2.25	3	52.5	2.0	Medium
Kyle Parker	OF	4.75	4	50.0	2.5	Medium
Chad Bettis	RHP	6.38	5	55.0	3.0	High
Tyler Anderson	LHP	6.88	6	50.0	2.0	Medium
Eddie Butler	RHP	7.71	7	50.0	3.0	High
Tyler Matzek	LHP	8.50	8	60.0	3.5	High
Edwar Cabrera	LHP	9.17	9	45.0	2.0	Medium
Will Swanner	C	11.14	10	50.0	3.0	High
Corey Dickerson	OF	11.20	11	50.0	3.0	High
Tim Wheeler	OF	11.29	12	45.0	2.0	Medium
Jayson Aquino	LHP	11.29	13	52.5	3.0	High
Ryan Wheeler	3B	11.33	14	45.0	1.0	Low
Rafael Ortega	OF	12.57	15	50.0	3.0	High
Tom Murphy	C	13.20	16	50.0	3.0	High
Rosell Herrera	SS	13.67	17	–	–	–
Kent Matthes	OF	16.00	18	50.0	3.0	High
Rob Scahill	RHP	16.67	19	45.0	2.0	Medium
Josh Sullivan	RHP	18.00	20	45.0	2.0	Medium
Joe Gardner	RHP	18.33	21	–	–	–
Christhian Adames	SS	18.67	22	50.0	3.0	High
Charlie Culberson	2B	19.00	23	–	–	–
Daniel Rosenbaum	LHP	20.50	24	45.0	2.0	Medium
Wilfredo Rodriguez	C	21.33	25	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Harold Riggins	1B	21.50	26	50.0	3.0	High
Taylor Featherston	2B	22.00	27	–	–	–
Julian Yan	OF	22.00	28	50.0	3.0	High
Peter Tago	RHP	23.00	29	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Seth Willoughby	RHP	24.00	30	50.0	3.0	High
Max White	OF	25.00	31	50.0	3.0	High
Ryan Warner	RHP	26.00	32	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Christian Bergman	RHP	26.50	33	45.0	2.0	Medium
Sam Mende	3B	27.00	34	–	–	–
Zach Putnam	RHP	28.00	35	–	–	–
Parker Frazier	RHP	29.50	36	40.0	2.0	Medium
Ryan Garvey	OF	30.00	37	–	–	–

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
49.917	2.717	22	51.932	3.023	2	62.500	3.250

David Dahl won out in the midst of a strong troika at the top of the list with Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. After those three, the talent in the system drops off fairly quickly. Evaluators were the most fickle with Will Swanner as they attempted to weigh his chances of sticking behind the plate with the potential ceiling of his bat.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Yasiel Puig	OF	1.75	1	62.5	3.5	High
Corey Seager	3B	2.50	2	57.5	3.0	High
Zach Lee	RHP	2.63	3	55.0	2.5	Medium
Hyu-Jin Ryu	LHP	4.25	4	52.5	1.0	Low
Joc Pederson	OF	4.63	5	52.5	2.5	Medium
Chris Reed	LHP	5.50	6	55.0	3.0	High
Matt Magill	RHP	6.71	7	50.0	2.0	Medium
Onelki Garcia	LHP	7.25	8	57.5	3.5	High
Chris Withrow	RHP	9.75	9	52.5	3.0	High
Paco Rodriguez	LHP	10.83	10	45.0	0.0	Safe
Jesmuel Valentin	SS	11.67	11	50.0	3.0	High
Garrett Gould	RHP	11.83	12	50.0	3.0	High
Tim Federowicz	C	12.00	13	45.0	1.0	Low
Zach Bird	RHP	13.25	14	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Ross Stripling	RHP	13.43	15	50.0	3.0	High
Alex Castellanos	OF	13.50	16	55.0	1.0	Low
Yimi Garcia	RHP	14.00	17	–	–	–
Rob Rasmussen	LHP	14.67	18	45.0	2.0	Medium
Jonathan Rodriguez	RHP	15.00	19	–	–	–
Bobby Coyle	OF	16.00	20	45.0	2.0	Medium
Stephen Ames	RHP	16.67	21	45.0	2.0	Medium
Julio Urias	LHP	17.00	22	–	–	–
Angel Sanchez	RHP	17.00	23	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Alex Santana	3B	17.75	24	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Scott Van Slyke	OF/1B	18.00	25	45.0	2.0	Medium
Darnell Sweeney	SS	18.00	26	–	–	–
James Baldwin	OF	18.67	27	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Scott Griggs	RHP	19.00	28	50.0	2.0	Medium
Aaron Miller	RHP	19.50	29	45.0	2.0	Medium
Josh Wall	RHP	21.00	30	45.0	2.0	Medium
Blake Smith	OF	24.50	31	45.0	2.0	Medium
Jeremy Rathjen	OF	24.50	32	45.0	3.0	High
Scott Barlow	RHP	25.00	33	50.0	2.0	Medium
Brian Cavazos-Galvez	OF	27.00	34	45.0	2.0	Medium

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
50.000	2.467	19	52.895	2.842	1	62.500	3.500

Newcomers Yasiel Puig and Corey Seager battled Zach Lee for the top spot on the Dodgers’ list. Hyu-Jin Ryu was only on a few lists due to how various lists handled his pro status, but his ranking here seems appropriate in a system without much depth. This system, however, does have the lowest risk of any system so far.

San Diego Padres

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Austin Hedges	C	2.63	1	65.0	3.0	High
Max Fried	LHP	2.88	2	62.5	3.0	High
Jedd Gyorko	3B	3.25	3	52.5	1.5	Low
Rymer Liriano	OF	3.63	4	57.5	3.0	High
Casey Kelly	RHP	4.00	5	52.5	1.5	Low
Robbie Erlin	LHP	7.25	6	50.0	2.0	Medium
Matt Wisler	RHP	8.00	7	52.5	2.5	Medium
Joe Ross	RHP	8.25	8	57.5	3.5	High
Joe Wieland	RHP	8.67	9	50.0	3.0	High
Adys Portillo	RHP	10.00	10	55.0	3.0	High
Cory Spangenberg	2B	10.29	11	50.0	3.0	High
Jonathan Galvez	2B	11.00	12	–	–	–
Keyvius Sampson	RHP	11.17	13	50.0	3.0	High
Zach Eflin	RHP	11.71	14	50.0	3.0	High
Walker Weickel	RHP	11.86	15	50.0	3.0	High
Edinson Rincon	3B	12.00	16	–	–	–
Jace Peterson	SS	13.20	17	50.0	3.0	High
Donn Roach	RHP	15.25	18	45.0	2.0	Medium
Brad Boxberger	RHP	15.67	19	45.0	1.0	Low
James Darnell	3B/OF	16.00	20	45.0	2.0	Medium
Travis Jankowski	OF	16.50	21	50.0	3.0	High
Fernando Perez	3B	17.00	22	50.0	3.0	High
Cody Hebner	RHP	18.00	23	–	–	–
Blake Tekotte	OF	19.00	24	–	–	–
Matt Andriese	RHP	19.50	25	50.0	3.0	High
Burch Smith	RHP	19.67	26	50.0	3.0	High
Rodeny Daal	C	21.00	27	–	–	–
John Barbato	RHP	21.67	28	45.0	3.0	High
Jaff Decker	OF	22.50	29	45.0	2.0	Medium
Rico Noel	OF	23.00	30	–	–	–
Matt Stites	RHP	23.50	31	45.0	2.0	Medium
Yeison Asencio	OF	24.00	32	50.0	3.0	High
Henry Charles	OF	24.00	33	–	–	–
Kevin Quackenbush	RHP	24.00	34	45.0	3.0	High
Miles Mikolas	RHP	25.00	35	45.0	2.0	Medium
Juan Oramas	LHP	26.00	36	50.0	3.0	High
Mallex Smith	OF	28.00	37	50.0	3.0	High

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
50.500	2.633	22	52.500	2.818	2	63.750	3.000

I expected the Padres’ system to grade out better than this due to depth, but while it has a lower overall risk, it doesn’t have many high ceiling players either. The two prospects that fit that description – Austin Hedges and Max Fried – head the list, and they are followed by a few guys who may play in the majors in the near future.

San Francisco Giants

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Kyle Crick	RHP	1.00	1	62.5	3.0	High
Chris Stratton	RHP	2.75	2	55.0	2.5	Medium
Gary Brown	OF	3.38	3	55.0	2.5	Medium
Clayton Blackburn	RHP	4.50	4	52.5	2.5	Medium
Joe Panik	SS	5.25	5	50.0	2.0	Medium
Heath Hembree	RHP	6.00	6	52.5	2.0	Medium
Mike Kickham	LHP	7.29	7	50.0	2.0	Medium
Francisco Peguero	OF	8.80	8	50.0	2.0	Medium
Martin Agosta	RHP	9.29	9	50.0	2.5	Medium
Mac Williamson	OF	9.83	10	55.0	3.0	High
Bryce Bandilla	LHP	10.00	11	–	–	–
Andrew Susac	C	10.25	12	52.5	2.5	Medium
Roger Kieschnick	OF	11.50	13	45.0	2.0	Medium
Chris Heston	RHP	12.33	14	45.0	2.0	Medium
Gustavo Cabrera	OF	13.00	15	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Adalberto Mejia	RHP	13.20	16	50.0	3.0	High
Edwin Escobar	LHP	13.60	17	50.0	3.0	High
Josh Osich	LHP	13.75	18	50.0	3.0	High
Adam Duvall	3B	14.25	19	45.0	2.0	Medium
EJ Encinosa	RHP	15.00	20	–	–	–
Joan Gregorio	RHP	15.00	21	–	–	–
Steven Okert	LHP	15.50	22	50.0	3.0	High
Stephen Johnson	RHP	15.50	23	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Eric Surkamp	LHP	15.67	24	45.0	3.0	High
Ehire Adrianza	SS	17.00	25	45.0	2.0	Medium
Christopher Marlowe	RHP	19.00	26	50.0	3.0	High
Ty Blach	LHP	19.00	27	–	–	–
Juan Perez	PF	21.00	28	45.0	2.0	Medium
Ricky Oropesa	1B	21.33	29	45.0	3.0	High
Brett Bochy	RHP	22.50	30	40.0	2.0	Medium
Nick Noonan	SS	23.00	31	45.0	2.0	Medium
Cody Hall	RHP	26.00	32	45.0	3.0	High
Jacob Dunnington	RHP	28.00	33	45.0	3.0	High
Shawn Payne	OF	29.00	34	45.0	3.0	High

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
49.167	2.617	18	52.222	2.750	1	62.500	3.000

Following suit with the rest of the division, the Giants have a middle-of-the-road farm system that doesn’t carry much risk relative to other systems. Kyle Crick heads the lit by breaking that mold, but the rest of the better prospects have a lower ceiling with a lower risk. Bruce Bochy’s son Brett was the Giant giving evaluators the most fits in this system.