Building the Farm: American League West

Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.

The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:

• I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
• I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
• Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.

The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.

• AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
• RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
• GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
• RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
  • Safe – 0 points
  • Low – 1 point
  • Medium/Moderate – 2 points
  • High – 3 points
  • Extreme – 4 points
• RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
  • Safe – less than 1
  • Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
  • Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
  • High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
  • Extreme – equal to 4

Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.

(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)

Houston Astros

The American League’s newest member has recently received valuable new additions through trades and the recent draft. Carlos Correa and Jonathan Singleton flip-flopped in most rankings, but a third-place finish in the Bullpen Banter rankings put Singleton second overall. The players with the largest range of outcomes were Adrian Houser and Carlos Perez, who found themselves in the top 10 of one list but the late 20s in another.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The loss of Mike Trout and the lack of replenishment in recent drafts has left the Angels’ cupboard fairly bare. Their system grade fell four points below the Astros, and the Angels have only two prospects above a 55 grade in the entire system. Cam Bedrosian seems to be the most controversial prospect in the system, netting a six and a nine ranking while also getting a 27 and 28.

Oakland Athletics

Addison Russell almost took unanimous honors as the system’s top prospect after only a few months in professional ball. He is the only 60-plus prospect in a system that seems to lack high-ceiling talent while also having the division’s highest Risk Rating. Recent acquisition Raul Alcantara sees the largest range in rankings as the 19-year old made a couple top 10/11 appearances while also coming in 25^th on another.

Seattle Mariners

Seattle has one of the better farm systems in baseball, but while the overall ranking is just third in the division, it has the lowest Risk Rating. That shouldn’t be surprising considering many of Seattle’s top prospects are in Double-A or above. Taijuan Walker heads the list , but Mike Zunino and Danny Hultzen aren’t too far behind due to their higher floors/relative risk. Vinnie Catricala has the widest range of rankings as he comes in eighth in one, 26^th in another and is left off the other lists.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have an interesting organization. Its three best prospects have relatively low risks, but the system is full of high risk/high reward types. That translates into Texas having the highest system grade and the division’s second-highest Risk Rating. Six prospects have “extreme” risks, and five of those have grades of 55 and above.