Building the Farm: American League West
Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.
The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:
- I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
- I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
- Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.
The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.
- AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
- RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
- GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
- RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
- Safe – 0 points
- Low – 1 point
- Medium/Moderate – 2 points
- High – 3 points
- Extreme – 4 points
- RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
- Safe – less than 1
- Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
- Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
- High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
- Extreme – equal to 4
Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.
(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)
Houston Astros
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | SS | 1.50 | 1 | 70.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jonathan Singleton | 1B | 1.63 | 2 | 67.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| George Springer | OF | 3.00 | 3 | 62.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Delino DeShields | 2B | 4.50 | 4 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Jarred Cosart | RHP | 5.50 | 5 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Lance McCullers | RHP | 6.13 | 6 | 67.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Mike Foltynewicz | RHP | 7.50 | 7 | 52.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Rio Ruiz | 3B | 8.50 | 8 | 57.5 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Nick Tropeano | RHP | 9.20 | 9 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Domingo Santana | OF | 9.71 | 10 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jonathan Villar | SS | 9.86 | 11 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Robbie Grossman | OF | 12.17 | 12 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Nolan Fontana | SS | 12.60 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Colton Cain | LHP | 13.00 | 14 | – | – | – |
| Asher Wojciechowski | RHP | 13.60 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Joe Musgrove | RHP | 14.00 | 16 | – | – | – |
| Preston Tucker | OF | 14.00 | 17 | – | – | – |
| Kevin Comer | RHP | 14.50 | 18 | – | – | – |
| Ariel Ovando | OF | 14.67 | 19 | – | – | – |
| Marc Krauss | OF | 15.00 | 20 | – | – | – |
| Vincent Velasquez | RHP | 15.00 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jose Cisnero | RHP | 15.00 | 22 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Adrian Houser | RHP | 17.00 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Carlos Perez | C | 17.00 | 24 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Nate Freiman | 1B | 19.00 | 25 | – | – | – |
| Ross Seaton | RHP | 20.00 | 26 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Brady Rogers | RHP | 20.25 | 27 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Josh Fields | RHP | 21.00 | 28 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Chia-Jen Lo | RHP | 21.00 | 29 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Brett Phillips | OF | 21.50 | 30 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Paul Clemens | RHP | 22.33 | 31 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Aaron West | RHP | 23.00 | 32 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jio Mier | SS | 23.00 | 33 | – | – | – |
| Brett Oberholtzer | LHP | 24.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Andrew Aplin | OF | 25.00 | 35 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Bobby Borchering | 1B/OF | 26.00 | 36 | – | – | – |
| Austin Wates | OF | 27.00 | 37 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Tyler Heineman | C | 29.00 | 38 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Chris Devenski | RHP | 30.00 | 39 | – | – | – |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.638 | 2.621 | 18 | 55.694 | 2.889 | 4 | 66.875 | 2.875 |
The American League’s newest member has recently received valuable new additions through trades and the recent draft. Carlos Correa and Jonathan Singleton flip-flopped in most rankings, but a third-place finish in the Bullpen Banter rankings put Singleton second overall. The players with the largest range of outcomes were Adrian Houser and Carlos Perez, who found themselves in the top 10 of one list but the late 20s in another.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleb Cowart | 3B | 1.00 | 1 | 62.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Nick Maronde | LHP | 2.63 | 2 | 50.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| CJ Cron | 1B | 2.88 | 3 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Taylor Lindsey | 2B | 4.38 | 4 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Randal Grichuk | OF | 6.88 | 5 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| RJ Alvarez | RHP | 8.00 | 6 | 55.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Kole Calhoun | OF | 8.57 | 7 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Alex Yarbrough | 2B | 9.00 | 8 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Nick Mutz | RHP | 10.00 | 9 | – | – | – |
| Austin Wood | RHP | 10.43 | 10 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Michael Clevinger | RHP | 11.29 | 11 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Luis Jimenez | 3B | 11.67 | 12 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Mark Sappington | RHP | 12.17 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jose Rondon | SS | 12.75 | 14 | 47.5 | 3.5 | High |
| AJ Schugel | RHP | 12.83 | 15 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Chevez Clarke | OF | 13.00 | 16 | – | – | – |
| Daniel Tillman | RHP | 13.17 | 17 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Eric Stamets | SS/2B | 13.80 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Eswarlin Jimenez | LHP | 14.00 | 19 | – | – | – |
| Andrew Romine | SS/2B | 14.00 | 20 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Ryan Chaffee | RHP | 14.00 | 21 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Travis Witherspoon | OF | 14.80 | 22 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Cam Bedrosian | RHP | 16.00 | 23 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Yency Almonte | RHP | 16.00 | 24 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Jonathan Walsh | OF | 18.00 | 25 | – | – | – |
| Victor Alcantara | RHP | 18.00 | 26 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Austin Adams | RHP | 18.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Sherman Johnson | 2B | 19.00 | 28 | – | – | – |
| Arjenis Fernandez | RHP | 20.50 | 29 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Wade Hinkle | 1B | 21.00 | 30 | – | – | – |
| Zach Wright | C | 21.00 | 31 | – | – | – |
| Reid Scoggins | RHP | 22.00 | 32 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Eduar Lopez | RHP | 23.00 | 33 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Steven Geltz | RHP | 23.00 | 34 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Carlos Ramirez | C | 24.50 | 35 | – | – | – |
| Ryan Brasier | RHP | 25.00 | 36 | 40.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Brandon Sisk | LHP | 25.00 | 37 | – | – | – |
| Drew Taylor | LHP | 26.50 | 38 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Kevin Johnson | RHP | 29.00 | 39 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Michael Roth | LHP | 29.00 | 40 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.333 | 2.817 | 16 | 51.094 | 3.188 | 1 | 62.500 | 3.000 |
The loss of Mike Trout and the lack of replenishment in recent drafts has left the Angels’ cupboard fairly bare. Their system grade fell four points below the Astros, and the Angels have only two prospects above a 55 grade in the entire system. Cam Bedrosian seems to be the most controversial prospect in the system, netting a six and a nine ranking while also getting a 27 and 28.
Oakland Athletics
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison Russell | SS | 1.25 | 1 | 65.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Michael Choice | OF | 2.75 | 2 | 57.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Dan Straily | RHP | 3.00 | 3 | 50.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Sonny Gray | RHP | 4.25 | 4 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Brad Peacock | RHP | 4.25 | 5 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Grant Green | OF | 6.38 | 6 | 47.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Miles Head | 3B | 6.88 | 7 | 50.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Daniel Robertson | 3B | 7.50 | 8 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Renato Nunez | 3B | 8.13 | 9 | 57.5 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Nolan Sanburn | RHP | 9.38 | 10 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 11.00 | 11 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Max Stassi | C | 12.00 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Pedro Figueroa | LHP | 12.00 | 13 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Vicmel de la Cruz | OF | 12.50 | 14 | – | – | – |
| Ian Krol | LHP | 13.67 | 15 | – | – | – |
| David Freitas | C | 14.00 | 16 | – | – | – |
| Michael Ynoa | RHP | 14.67 | 17 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Michael Taylor | OF | 14.75 | 18 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Shane Peterson | OF | 15.00 | 19 | – | – | – |
| Max Muncy | 1B | 15.00 | 20 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| BA Vollmuth | 3B | 15.00 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Chris Bostick | 2B | 15.25 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Raul Alcantara | RHP | 15.33 | 23 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| BJ Boyd | OF | 16.33 | 24 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jefry Marte | 3B | 18.00 | 25 | – | – | – |
| Beau Taylor | C | 18.00 | 26 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Aaron Shipman | OF | 18.50 | 27 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Blake Hassebrock | RHP | 19.00 | 28 | – | – | – |
| Seth Streich | RHP | 20.00 | 29 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Stephen Parker | 3B | 20.50 | 30 | 40.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Bruce Maxwell | C | 23.00 | 31 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Arnold Leon | RHP | 23.50 | 32 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Bobby Crocker | OF | 24.00 | 33 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Andrew Carignan | RHP | 27.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Josh Bowman | RHP | 29.00 | 35 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.086 | 2.845 | 19 | 52.895 | 3.053 | 1 | 65.000 | 2.500 |
Addison Russell almost took unanimous honors as the system’s top prospect after only a few months in professional ball. He is the only 60-plus prospect in a system that seems to lack high-ceiling talent while also having the division’s highest Risk Rating. Recent acquisition Raul Alcantara sees the largest range in rankings as the 19-year old made a couple top 10/11 appearances while also coming in 25th on another.
Seattle Mariners
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | RHP | 1.38 | 1 | 70.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Mike Zunino | C | 2.00 | 2 | 57.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Danny Hultzen | LHP | 2.75 | 3 | 60.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Nick Franklin | SS | 4.13 | 4 | 52.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| James Paxton | LHP | 5.00 | 5 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Brandon Maurer | RHP | 7.00 | 6 | 52.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Brad Miller | SS | 7.86 | 7 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Carter Capps | RHP | 8.00 | 8 | 55.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Victor Sanchez | RHP | 8.43 | 9 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Stefen Romero | 3B/OF | 9.71 | 10 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Luis Gohara | LHP | 10.75 | 11 | 65.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Stephen Pryor | RHP | 11.67 | 12 | 45.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Tyler Pike | LHP | 12.38 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jordan Shipers | LHP | 13.00 | 14 | – | – | – |
| Joseph DeCarlo | 3B | 13.33 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Gabriel Guerrero | OF | 13.75 | 16 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Patrick Kivlehan | 3B | 14.33 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jack Marder | C | 15.67 | 18 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Leon Landry | OF | 16.25 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Vincent Catricala | 3B/OF | 17.00 | 20 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Francisco Martinez | 3B | 17.00 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Martin Peguero | SS | 17.00 | 22 | – | – | – |
| Carson Smith | RHP | 17.67 | 23 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Edwin Diaz | RHP | 18.00 | 24 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Timothy Lopes | 2B | 18.25 | 25 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| John Hicks | C | 18.33 | 26 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Guillermo Pimentel | OF | 19.00 | 27 | – | – | – |
| Julio Morban | OF | 19.67 | 28 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jabari Blash | OF | 24.00 | 29 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Anthony Fernandez | LHP | 24.50 | 30 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Chance Ruffin | RHP | 27.00 | 31 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Chris Taylor | SS | 28.00 | 32 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Ramon Morla | 3B | 29.00 | 33 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Logan Bawcom | RHP | – | 34 | – | – | – |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.250 | 2.500 | 22 | 53.523 | 2.727 | 3 | 65.000 | 3.000 |
Seattle has one of the better farm systems in baseball, but while the overall ranking is just third in the division, it has the lowest Risk Rating. That shouldn’t be surprising considering many of Seattle’s top prospects are in Double-A or above. Taijuan Walker heads the list , but Mike Zunino and Danny Hultzen aren’t too far behind due to their higher floors/relative risk. Vinnie Catricala has the widest range of rankings as he comes in eighth in one, 26th in another and is left off the other lists.
Texas Rangers
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | SS | 1.00 | 1 | 72.5 | 1.0 | Low |
| Mike Olt | 3B | 2.00 | 2 | 62.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Martin Perez | LHP | 3.63 | 3 | 55.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Leonys Martin | OF | 3.75 | 4 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Cody Buckel | RHP | 5.17 | 5 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jorge Alfaro | C | 7.13 | 6 | 65.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Justin Grimm | RHP | 8.00 | 7 | 52.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Luke Jackson | RHP | 8.43 | 8 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Luis Sardinas | SS | 8.63 | 9 | 60.0 | 3.5 | High |
| Joey Gallo | 3B | 8.88 | 10 | 62.5 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Lewis Brinson | OF | 9.50 | 11 | 62.5 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Nomar Mazara | OF | 11.00 | 12 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Rougned Odor | 2B | 11.33 | 13 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jairo Beras | OF | 12.60 | 14 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Ronald Guzman | OF | 13.00 | 15 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Will Lamb | LHP | 13.00 | 16 | – | – | – |
| Wilmer Font | RHP | 14.25 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| CJ Edwards | RHP | 15.25 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Engel Beltre | OF | 16.00 | 19 | – | – | – |
| Roman Mendez | RHP | 16.67 | 20 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Nick Williams | OF | 17.67 | 21 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Leury Garcia | 2B | 18.00 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Hanser Alberto | SS | 18.67 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Neil Ramirez | RHP | 19.50 | 24 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Kevin Matthews | LHP | 20.00 | 25 | – | – | – |
| Nicholas Tepesch | RHP | 21.00 | 26 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Drew Robinson | 3B | 22.50 | 27 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Nick Martinez | RHP | 23.50 | 28 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Zach Cone | OF | 24.00 | 29 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jordan Akins | OF | 25.00 | 30 | – | – | – |
| Chad Bell | LHP | 27.00 | 31 | – | – | – |
| Keone Kela | RHP | 27.50 | 32 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Matt West | RHP | 28.00 | 33 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Kellin Deglan | C | 28.00 | 34 | – | – | – |
| Randy Henry | RHP | 29.00 | 35 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Joe Ortiz | LHP | 30.00 | 36 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | RHP | 30.00 | 37 | – | – | – |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.417 | 2.833 | 27 | 54.537 | 2.926 | 6 | 64.167 | 3.000 |
The Rangers have an interesting organization. Its three best prospects have relatively low risks, but the system is full of high risk/high reward types. That translates into Texas having the highest system grade and the division’s second-highest Risk Rating. Six prospects have “extreme” risks, and five of those have grades of 55 and above.
What exactly is the Risk rating? Is it the likelihood of the players’ talents impacting the ML team?
Yeah, it would be great to have more discussion of what exactly you are measuring with ‘risk.’ Allocating a roster spot on a minor-league team is not a huge investment from an MLB club’s perspective, so what do you mean when you say that, for example, Joey Gallo is an ‘extreme’ risk? If it’s just a measure of the likelihood that he will develop into the Xth percentile of his ceiling, then perhaps you should rename it to reflect that?
Good question. The grade for each prospect is a sort of realistic/reasonable ceiling. Risk is how likely it is for them to reach that. The risks come from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus.
That raises a question about Ynoa for me. I’m not all that familar with his stuff, but my impression is (was?) that his ceiling is still crazy high, but at this point the risk is obviously “extreme.” Are there no longer any hopes that his ceiling really is that high?
It depends on your definition of “high”. When he first signed, his ceiling was like a 70, but after all the injuries and missed time, that has dropped. His risk is still extreme because he hasn’t pitched enough to make any real developmental strides. But if he shows signs of life, people are still ready to jump back on the bandwagon a bit.