Building the Farm: American League West

Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.

The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:

• I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
• I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
• Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.

The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.

• AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
• RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
• GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
• RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
  • Safe – 0 points
  • Low – 1 point
  • Medium/Moderate – 2 points
  • High – 3 points
  • Extreme – 4 points
• RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
  • Safe – less than 1
  • Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
  • Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
  • High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
  • Extreme – equal to 4

Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.

(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)

Houston Astros

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Carlos Correa	SS	1.50	1	70.0	3.0	High
Jonathan Singleton	1B	1.63	2	67.5	2.0	Medium
George Springer	OF	3.00	3	62.5	3.0	High
Delino DeShields	2B	4.50	4	57.5	2.5	Medium
Jarred Cosart	RHP	5.50	5	57.5	2.5	Medium
Lance McCullers	RHP	6.13	6	67.5	3.5	High
Mike Foltynewicz	RHP	7.50	7	52.5	2.5	Medium
Rio Ruiz	3B	8.50	8	57.5	4.0	Extreme
Nick Tropeano	RHP	9.20	9	50.0	2.0	Medium
Domingo Santana	OF	9.71	10	55.0	3.0	High
Jonathan Villar	SS	9.86	11	55.0	3.0	High
Robbie Grossman	OF	12.17	12	45.0	2.0	Medium
Nolan Fontana	SS	12.60	13	50.0	3.0	High
Colton Cain	LHP	13.00	14	–	–	–
Asher Wojciechowski	RHP	13.60	15	50.0	3.0	High
Joe Musgrove	RHP	14.00	16	–	–	–
Preston Tucker	OF	14.00	17	–	–	–
Kevin Comer	RHP	14.50	18	–	–	–
Ariel Ovando	OF	14.67	19	–	–	–
Marc Krauss	OF	15.00	20	–	–	–
Vincent Velasquez	RHP	15.00	21	50.0	3.0	High
Jose Cisnero	RHP	15.00	22	45.0	2.0	Medium
Adrian Houser	RHP	17.00	23	50.0	3.0	High
Carlos Perez	C	17.00	24	45.0	2.0	Medium
Nate Freiman	1B	19.00	25	–	–	–
Ross Seaton	RHP	20.00	26	45.0	2.0	Medium
Brady Rogers	RHP	20.25	27	45.0	2.0	Medium
Josh Fields	RHP	21.00	28	45.0	2.0	Medium
Chia-Jen Lo	RHP	21.00	29	50.0	3.0	High
Brett Phillips	OF	21.50	30	50.0	3.0	High
Paul Clemens	RHP	22.33	31	45.0	3.0	High
Aaron West	RHP	23.00	32	50.0	3.0	High
Jio Mier	SS	23.00	33	–	–	–
Brett Oberholtzer	LHP	24.00	34	45.0	2.0	Medium
Andrew Aplin	OF	25.00	35	45.0	2.0	Medium
Bobby Borchering	1B/OF	26.00	36	–	–	–
Austin Wates	OF	27.00	37	45.0	2.0	Medium
Tyler Heineman	C	29.00	38	45.0	3.0	High
Chris Devenski	RHP	30.00	39	–	–	–

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
51.638	2.621	18	55.694	2.889	4	66.875	2.875

The American League’s newest member has recently received valuable new additions through trades and the recent draft. Carlos Correa and Jonathan Singleton flip-flopped in most rankings, but a third-place finish in the Bullpen Banter rankings put Singleton second overall. The players with the largest range of outcomes were Adrian Houser and Carlos Perez, who found themselves in the top 10 of one list but the late 20s in another.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Kaleb Cowart	3B	1.00	1	62.5	3.0	High
Nick Maronde	LHP	2.63	2	50.0	1.5	Low
CJ Cron	1B	2.88	3	50.0	3.0	High
Taylor Lindsey	2B	4.38	4	50.0	3.0	High
Randal Grichuk	OF	6.88	5	50.0	3.0	High
RJ Alvarez	RHP	8.00	6	55.0	2.5	Medium
Kole Calhoun	OF	8.57	7	40.0	1.0	Low
Alex Yarbrough	2B	9.00	8	50.0	3.0	High
Nick Mutz	RHP	10.00	9	–	–	–
Austin Wood	RHP	10.43	10	50.0	3.0	High
Michael Clevinger	RHP	11.29	11	50.0	3.0	High
Luis Jimenez	3B	11.67	12	45.0	2.0	Medium
Mark Sappington	RHP	12.17	13	50.0	3.0	High
Jose Rondon	SS	12.75	14	47.5	3.5	High
AJ Schugel	RHP	12.83	15	45.0	2.0	Medium
Chevez Clarke	OF	13.00	16	–	–	–
Daniel Tillman	RHP	13.17	17	45.0	3.0	High
Eric Stamets	SS/2B	13.80	18	50.0	3.0	High
Eswarlin Jimenez	LHP	14.00	19	–	–	–
Andrew Romine	SS/2B	14.00	20	40.0	1.0	Low
Ryan Chaffee	RHP	14.00	21	45.0	2.0	Medium
Travis Witherspoon	OF	14.80	22	45.0	3.0	High
Cam Bedrosian	RHP	16.00	23	45.0	3.0	High
Yency Almonte	RHP	16.00	24	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Jonathan Walsh	OF	18.00	25	–	–	–
Victor Alcantara	RHP	18.00	26	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Austin Adams	RHP	18.00	27	–	–	–
Sherman Johnson	2B	19.00	28	–	–	–
Arjenis Fernandez	RHP	20.50	29	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Wade Hinkle	1B	21.00	30	–	–	–
Zach Wright	C	21.00	31	–	–	–
Reid Scoggins	RHP	22.00	32	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Eduar Lopez	RHP	23.00	33	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Steven Geltz	RHP	23.00	34	40.0	2.0	Medium
Carlos Ramirez	C	24.50	35	–	–	–
Ryan Brasier	RHP	25.00	36	40.0	4.0	Extreme
Brandon Sisk	LHP	25.00	37	–	–	–
Drew Taylor	LHP	26.50	38	40.0	2.0	Medium
Kevin Johnson	RHP	29.00	39	40.0	2.0	Medium
Michael Roth	LHP	29.00	40	45.0	3.0	High

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
47.333	2.817	16	51.094	3.188	1	62.500	3.000

The loss of Mike Trout and the lack of replenishment in recent drafts has left the Angels’ cupboard fairly bare. Their system grade fell four points below the Astros, and the Angels have only two prospects above a 55 grade in the entire system. Cam Bedrosian seems to be the most controversial prospect in the system, netting a six and a nine ranking while also getting a 27 and 28.

Oakland Athletics

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Addison Russell	SS	1.25	1	65.0	2.5	Medium
Michael Choice	OF	2.75	2	57.5	3.0	High
Dan Straily	RHP	3.00	3	50.0	1.5	Low
Sonny Gray	RHP	4.25	4	57.5	2.5	Medium
Brad Peacock	RHP	4.25	5	55.0	3.0	High
Grant Green	OF	6.38	6	47.5	1.5	Low
Miles Head	3B	6.88	7	50.0	2.5	Medium
Daniel Robertson	3B	7.50	8	50.0	3.0	High
Renato Nunez	3B	8.13	9	57.5	4.0	Extreme
Nolan Sanburn	RHP	9.38	10	55.0	3.0	High
Matt Olson	1B	11.00	11	52.5	3.0	High
Max Stassi	C	12.00	12	50.0	3.0	High
Pedro Figueroa	LHP	12.00	13	45.0	2.0	Medium
Vicmel de la Cruz	OF	12.50	14	–	–	–
Ian Krol	LHP	13.67	15	–	–	–
David Freitas	C	14.00	16	–	–	–
Michael Ynoa	RHP	14.67	17	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Michael Taylor	OF	14.75	18	45.0	2.0	Medium
Shane Peterson	OF	15.00	19	–	–	–
Max Muncy	1B	15.00	20	50.0	3.0	High
BA Vollmuth	3B	15.00	21	50.0	3.0	High
Chris Bostick	2B	15.25	22	50.0	3.0	High
Raul Alcantara	RHP	15.33	23	50.0	4.0	Extreme
BJ Boyd	OF	16.33	24	50.0	3.0	High
Jefry Marte	3B	18.00	25	–	–	–
Beau Taylor	C	18.00	26	45.0	2.0	Medium
Aaron Shipman	OF	18.50	27	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Blake Hassebrock	RHP	19.00	28	–	–	–
Seth Streich	RHP	20.00	29	50.0	3.0	High
Stephen Parker	3B	20.50	30	40.0	2.0	Medium
Bruce Maxwell	C	23.00	31	45.0	3.0	High
Arnold Leon	RHP	23.50	32	45.0	3.0	High
Bobby Crocker	OF	24.00	33	45.0	3.0	High
Andrew Carignan	RHP	27.00	34	45.0	3.0	High
Josh Bowman	RHP	29.00	35	45.0	3.0	High

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
50.086	2.845	19	52.895	3.053	1	65.000	2.500

Addison Russell almost took unanimous honors as the system’s top prospect after only a few months in professional ball. He is the only 60-plus prospect in a system that seems to lack high-ceiling talent while also having the division’s highest Risk Rating. Recent acquisition Raul Alcantara sees the largest range in rankings as the 19-year old made a couple top 10/11 appearances while also coming in 25^th on another.

Seattle Mariners

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Taijuan Walker	RHP	1.38	1	70.0	3.0	High
Mike Zunino	C	2.00	2	57.5	1.5	Low
Danny Hultzen	LHP	2.75	3	60.0	2.0	Medium
Nick Franklin	SS	4.13	4	52.5	1.5	Low
James Paxton	LHP	5.00	5	52.5	2.0	Medium
Brandon Maurer	RHP	7.00	6	52.5	2.5	Medium
Brad Miller	SS	7.86	7	50.0	2.0	Medium
Carter Capps	RHP	8.00	8	55.0	2.0	Medium
Victor Sanchez	RHP	8.43	9	57.5	3.5	High
Stefen Romero	3B/OF	9.71	10	50.0	2.0	Medium
Luis Gohara	LHP	10.75	11	65.0	4.0	Extreme
Stephen Pryor	RHP	11.67	12	45.0	1.0	Low
Tyler Pike	LHP	12.38	13	50.0	3.0	High
Jordan Shipers	LHP	13.00	14	–	–	–
Joseph DeCarlo	3B	13.33	15	50.0	3.0	High
Gabriel Guerrero	OF	13.75	16	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Patrick Kivlehan	3B	14.33	17	50.0	3.0	High
Jack Marder	C	15.67	18	45.0	2.0	Medium
Leon Landry	OF	16.25	19	50.0	3.0	High
Vincent Catricala	3B/OF	17.00	20	45.0	2.0	Medium
Francisco Martinez	3B	17.00	21	50.0	3.0	High
Martin Peguero	SS	17.00	22	–	–	–
Carson Smith	RHP	17.67	23	45.0	2.0	Medium
Edwin Diaz	RHP	18.00	24	50.0	3.0	High
Timothy Lopes	2B	18.25	25	50.0	3.0	High
John Hicks	C	18.33	26	45.0	2.0	Medium
Guillermo Pimentel	OF	19.00	27	–	–	–
Julio Morban	OF	19.67	28	50.0	3.0	High
Jabari Blash	OF	24.00	29	50.0	3.0	High
Anthony Fernandez	LHP	24.50	30	45.0	2.0	Medium
Chance Ruffin	RHP	27.00	31	45.0	2.0	Medium
Chris Taylor	SS	28.00	32	45.0	2.0	Medium
Ramon Morla	3B	29.00	33	50.0	3.0	High
Logan Bawcom	RHP	–	34	–	–	–

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
51.250	2.500	22	53.523	2.727	3	65.000	3.000

Seattle has one of the better farm systems in baseball, but while the overall ranking is just third in the division, it has the lowest Risk Rating. That shouldn’t be surprising considering many of Seattle’s top prospects are in Double-A or above. Taijuan Walker heads the list , but Mike Zunino and Danny Hultzen aren’t too far behind due to their higher floors/relative risk. Vinnie Catricala has the widest range of rankings as he comes in eighth in one, 26^th in another and is left off the other lists.

Texas Rangers

Player	Pos	AVG	RANK	GRADE	RISK	RISK
Jurickson Profar	SS	1.00	1	72.5	1.0	Low
Mike Olt	3B	2.00	2	62.5	1.5	Low
Martin Perez	LHP	3.63	3	55.0	1.5	Low
Leonys Martin	OF	3.75	4	50.0	2.0	Medium
Cody Buckel	RHP	5.17	5	50.0	2.0	Medium
Jorge Alfaro	C	7.13	6	65.0	4.0	Extreme
Justin Grimm	RHP	8.00	7	52.5	1.5	Low
Luke Jackson	RHP	8.43	8	55.0	3.0	High
Luis Sardinas	SS	8.63	9	60.0	3.5	High
Joey Gallo	3B	8.88	10	62.5	4.0	Extreme
Lewis Brinson	OF	9.50	11	62.5	4.0	Extreme
Nomar Mazara	OF	11.00	12	57.5	3.5	High
Rougned Odor	2B	11.33	13	50.0	2.0	Medium
Jairo Beras	OF	12.60	14	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Ronald Guzman	OF	13.00	15	57.5	3.5	High
Will Lamb	LHP	13.00	16	–	–	–
Wilmer Font	RHP	14.25	17	50.0	3.0	High
CJ Edwards	RHP	15.25	18	50.0	3.0	High
Engel Beltre	OF	16.00	19	–	–	–
Roman Mendez	RHP	16.67	20	50.0	3.0	High
Nick Williams	OF	17.67	21	55.0	4.0	Extreme
Leury Garcia	2B	18.00	22	50.0	3.0	High
Hanser Alberto	SS	18.67	23	50.0	3.0	High
Neil Ramirez	RHP	19.50	24	45.0	2.0	Medium
Kevin Matthews	LHP	20.00	25	–	–	–
Nicholas Tepesch	RHP	21.00	26	50.0	3.0	High
Drew Robinson	3B	22.50	27	50.0	3.0	High
Nick Martinez	RHP	23.50	28	50.0	3.0	High
Zach Cone	OF	24.00	29	50.0	3.0	High
Jordan Akins	OF	25.00	30	–	–	–
Chad Bell	LHP	27.00	31	–	–	–
Keone Kela	RHP	27.50	32	50.0	3.0	High
Matt West	RHP	28.00	33	50.0	4.0	Extreme
Kellin Deglan	C	28.00	34	–	–	–
Randy Henry	RHP	29.00	35	45.0	3.0	High
Joe Ortiz	LHP	30.00	36	40.0	1.0	Low
Lisalverto Bonilla	RHP	30.00	37	–	–	–

System Grade	System Risk	50+	50+ Grade	50+ Risk	60+	60+ Grade	60+ Risk
53.417	2.833	27	54.537	2.926	6	64.167	3.000

The Rangers have an interesting organization. Its three best prospects have relatively low risks, but the system is full of high risk/high reward types. That translates into Texas having the highest system grade and the division’s second-highest Risk Rating. Six prospects have “extreme” risks, and five of those have grades of 55 and above.