Byron Buxton’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week
My two-year-old is in love with reading books right now, which is awesome. Our current favorite is The Day the Crayons Quit, which is affectionately known as “the crayon book” around here. Unfortunately, some books have made their way into our house which I don’t enjoy reading, with my least favorite being Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day. I regularly move the book to random locations where it can’t accidentally be found, since I hope to never read it again.
That’s probably how Byron Buxton feels right now. Whenever his career is over, it’s now going to include a record of the start of his 2017 season, and I’d imagine he’d like to take the record of his first seven games and shove them in a corner where they will never be found.
The Twins lost yesterday 2-1 to the Tigers, but because they have a 2.07 ERA through their first seven games, Minnesota is still 5-2, a surprisingly strong start for a team not expected to contend this year. But despite making a few fantastic defensive plays, they’re winning in spite of Byron Buxton, not because of him.
Yesterday, Buxton came to bat three times. He struck out three times. They were his 15th, 16th, and 17th strikeouts of the season. He’s come to the plate 30 times. That’s a 56.7% strikeout rate, which, you know, isn’t great.
Buxton has two hits and a walk so far this year, so he’s batting a robust .069/.100/.103 on the year. That’s an .095 wOBA, and given the first week’s run environment, translates to a -59 wRC+. Yeah, negative 59.
Technically, because of the off days built into the start of the season, this isn’t a “week,” as Buxton’s first seven games were played over nine days. But I wanted to put some context into Buxton’s horrific seven games, so using our Splits Leaderboard, I pulled in every week where a player has accrued at least 30 plate appearances since 2002. Because this split just measures Monday-Sunday weeks, this won’t capture every seven-game stretch that a player has had, and shouldn’t be treated as a definitive look at the worst 30 PA stretches of the last 15 years. But it should give us a decent idea of how rare stretches this bad really are.
Overall, from 2002 through 2016, there were 10,809 weeks in which a player came to the plate at least 30 times. Only four of those 10,809 weeks resulted in a wRC+ worse than the one Buxton has right now. The good news? The four guys who did this poorly all had pretty decent careers.
The worst Monday-Sunday week since 2002? It actually belongs to Derek Jeter. From April 19th to 25th of 2004, Jeter hit .033/.094/.033, an .073 wOBA that translated to a -71 wRC+. Which is amazing, because Jeter’s season line in 2004 totaled a 117 wRC+ and +4.7 WAR. Jeter got to that mark after running a 29 wRC+ in April by putting up a 132 wRC+ from May 1st on. Jeter’s 2004 is a reminder that no matter how poorly you start, you can still salvage your season.
The other three guys who put up weeks with a wRC+ of -60 or worse? Royce Clayton (May 12-18, 2003; -70 wRC+), Dan Uggla (Sep 18-24, 2006; -67 wRC+), and Jeff Francoeur (April 3-9, 2006; -67 wRC+). The 2006 season was a rough one for NL East hitters apparently, and right now, Buxton probably has more in common with Francouer than Jeter. That was the first week of Francouer’s age-22 season, and he was coming off a strong rookie season after rising through the minors as a top prospect, but his career was undone by a lack of strike-zone discipline. Francouer is a reminder that Buxton will need some semblance of pitch recognition if he’s going to translate his physical gifts into sustainable production.
Interestingly, though, Francoeur didn’t really strike out that much in that lousy week in 2006, with just six strikeouts in 31 PAs. He was undone by an .083 BABIP and the lack of any extra-base hits — and, of course, no walks either.
But the standout thing about Buxton’s first week isn’t just the lack of production; it’s the lack of contact. Seventeen strikeouts in 30 plate appearances is pretty rough. But again, I have some good news: it’s not entirely unique.
From April 21st to 27th of 2008, Mark Reynolds struck out 18 times in 31 plate appearances, and 2008 was a year in which he was nearly a league-average hitter. If Buxton bounces back from his struggles to run a 97 wRC+ on the season, the Twins should be pretty happy indeed.
Seventeen strikeouts in 30 PAs actually happened last year, too, so it hasn’t been that long since a big leaguer pulled this off. Eugenio Suarez whiffed 17 times in 30 PAs from May 16th to 22nd, and he finished the year with a 93 wRC+.
Okay, so those are the only two Monday-Sunday weeks with a 50% or greater strikeout rate of the last 15 years. Buxton, because this was done over a Monday-to-following-Tuesday, won’t join them on this list. But at least he can find some solace in knowing that a couple of decent big-league hitters have lived through weeks where they swung and missed with this kind of regularity. And Derek Jeter, in the middle of the prime of his career, had a week with worse results than Buxton just had.
So, yeah, don’t give up on Byron Buxton just yet. It’s seven games. Good hitters have had terrible seven-game stretches before. Buxton is still young, and his defensive prowess will earn him a long leash, since he doesn’t have to hit a lot to be a good player.
But given Buxton’s prior struggles in the big leagues, this obviously isn’t great news, and at some point in the not too distant future, Buxton’s going to have to figure out how to get the bat on the ball.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Byron Buston
Byron Suxton
Byron Fourthoutfielderton
Byron Neveronbaseton
Byron Nyene…nyene…nagonnaworkhereanymore.
Byron Strikesout-A-ton
Byron YourBaseballKnowledgeMakesMyThumbLookSmarterThanYouTon
The “Crayon book” is a favourite of ours too. The sequel is just as good.
I’m surprised you didn’t mention Jose Reyes. His wRC+ isn’t quite as bad as Buxton’s, but he’s running a lower BA, OBP and SLG.
Buxton is 2/29 with a double and a walk. Reyes is 2/33 with a double and a walk. So Buxton would need another 0-4 to have Reyes’ double slash line.
Buxton: “Hold my beer.”
Reyes is only striking out half as much.
That’s the thing about Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Weeks… you put a couple of them together, and you’ve got a Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Month.
Here’s hoping Buxton can avoid the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year. It’s never any fun to see someone with a lot of potential have a Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Career.
Agreed, Jason Heyward’s 2016 batting line was no fun for anyone, however like Heyward, Buxton will always have defensive value. They’re both worthy of a roster spot, but not worthy of hitting any higher than 8th in the order.
“The thing about Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Weeks…”
Well, he’s not that good but he did just hit a home run against the Yankees.
More articles have been written about Buxton than plenty of interesting major leaguers. Not to harp on the guy, but could we maybe move on? I still think he has a lot of potential, but maybe someone who is performing well would make a more interesting article.
That being said, I’ll admit that it’s entertaining to read of struggles. Just feel bad for the guy and think maybe a different tone could be had.
#1 draft picks get attention, please calm down.
Buxton was drafted after Carlos Correa.
Easy mistake to make. Everyone was so hyped about Buxton and Appel that it was a shock to see Correa go 1-1. It was an under-slot deal (3 million under), so a lot of people wrote off Correa thinking the Astros were getting too cute. Whoops.
That draft also had Corey Seager, Gausman, Addison Russell, Lucas Giolito, Lance McCullers, Lewis Brinson, and Marcus Stroman, among others (Fried, Dahl, Piscotty, Jose Berrios, Joey Gallo, Andrew Heaney, Jesse Winker…and so on) in the first round. So the Astros are probably pretty happy with their pick, and the focus on Buxton and Appel looks silly now.
Calmer than you are
It’s the ringer. The whites.
Excellent point. Piling on is easier than coming up with an original idea – in the end, this is about clicks unfortunately.
The guy was number one on several prospect lists a few years ago….I think that’s interesting.
I’d like to offer a better quality adjective on:
“so he’s batting a robust .069/.100/.103 on the year.”
“so he’s batting a musty .069/.100/.103 on the year.”
I hereby declare that all horrendous batting lines be described as “musty” from here on.
… oh never mind.
Pair buxton and Otani and use the DH for CF.
This peaked my interest because its quirky. Unfortunately the 5.11 designated hitter rule only allows having a designated hitter for the pitcher 🙁
With the talent this guy has, I wonder if he’s in need of a change of scenery at this point? It’s amazing what a new coaching approach can do for a player.
You may be right, but it’s not going to happen soon. It’s hard to think of anywhere more low-stakes, low-pressure than a rebuilding Minnesota.
I’d nominate Milwaukee, if only because MN was ‘supposed’ to be coming out of their rebuild by this point, while expectations are even lower in Wisconsin because they’re a year or so behind in the process.
It doesn’t even need to be a team with low expectations. A competitor that can drop him in the order and get him around other good hitters and build him back up while maintaining a positive outlook would work. Something similar to the leash the Cubs are giving Heyward.
Jackie Bradley Junior 2: Electric Boogaloo?
Byron Buxton should probably just move to Australia…
It sure is depressing. I think Dave has always questioned Byron’s ability to be as great as many predicted, but this is bad. As a Twins’ fan, it’s hard to see a path to contention w/o Buxton being great.
Serious shade that the Crayon Book gets a link to purchase and the Horrible, No Good book gets a link to its existence.
I wouldn’t want anyone else to buy that thing.
Agree completely! Can you believe they made a movie out of that book?
Reminds me of the Jays last year, as a team striking out in the 40-50% range for the first couple weeks..
Have you seen them hit this year? I should say, “hit”, rather. It has been ugly.
65 wRC+, .258 wOBA ugly.
August Fagerstrom wrote about Buxton’s leg kick and the way he was coached in the minors, and August pointed out that he did really well once he got that leg kick back and under control. Of course, even when he had the leg kick he still struck out a ton, but he hit enough to make up for it.
Has anyone been watching enough Twins to know how the leg kick is? I think he still has an outside chance of being a starting CF, but even so he’s going to need regular hitting tuneups to keep his mechanics in order.
In some of the ABs I’ve seen, he’s all over the place. One pitch will leg kick, then the next it’s a toe-tap. No consistency.
He most consistently takes a giant leg kick and it is his worst problem. It is really awkward and noisy and he has a hard time getting his foot down in time to get a swing off.
When he went from raw athlete to a guy with a legit hit tool, it was with a toe tap. YouTube a BP session from his first year or two of pro ball. There is no big leg kick. it was simple and it worked. There may be some narrative about the leg kick leading to success (not sure, but seems like the type of thing that people like to write about), but I am not buying it. There is real video out there.
I disagree on his foot getting down too late. Watching his swings, he’s putting it down early, then pauses as the pitch is delivered, and then swings. It’s the classic “get your foot down early” thing that Kyle Boddy from Driveline Baseball rails against. Buxton’s swing doesn’t look fluid at all and I feel that it’s sapping him of his ability to make contact.
He is a mess in all regards for sure. I think it is the absurd leg kick, but there is always room for disagreement. Honestly, his pre-swing is so noisy that I have a hard time getting past it and evaluating anything else, but that is where it starts. Nothing will sabotage your fluidity like a bunch of movement and inconsistency before you get started with your swing. I am just some jag on the Internet, but I would put my swing analysis up against anyone. Take it or leave it. I don’t rail against anything, but when something superfluous is preventing you from succeeding, then it should be subject to examination. Again, check out some real peak Buxton footage – it is not a creative swing, but his athleticism made it work. Since then, he has created a mess. Perhaps he just doesn’t have the ability to hit MLB pitching – I don’t know, but that feels like a cop-out at this point. if I had to offer one (easy) mechanical adjustment, I think you know what it would be. He could also be legally blind… that would make sense too!
Inconsistency is correct. Almost pitch-to-pitch, he’s changing his leg kick. It seriously looks like he overcorrects (“I missed with the leg kick, so the next pitch I must do the toe-tap”) or is overthinking every single pitch.
Thanks to everyone on this. Sounds like his mechanics are still a mess and definitely inconsistent. He sounds broken, but maybe fixable? Maybe?
I’ve watched a large % of his at bats so far this year, he looks as bad as these numbers. It seems that he completely lacks the ability to recognize an offspeed pitch.
It was all because of that no good dirty rotten pig stealing great great grandfather of his!
We’re talking about Byron Buxton, not Sicnarf Loopstok or Nomar Garciaparra.
When do we start blaming the Twins for this mess? Before bringing him up to the majors in 2015, he had a grand total of 60 games in AA and 13 games in AAA. That’s about half of a minor league season. Granted, he was very good in those 73 games, but it’s still just 73 games. He was 21 years old and the Twins were not good.
For comparison purposes, Trout had 91 games in AA before a cup of coffee in the majors and then another 20 games in AAA before being brought up full time. Correa had less time than both of them, but he also had better walk and strikeout rates than Buxton. Machado had over 100 games in AA before coming up, but he also had better walk and strikeout rates than Buxton.
Also! Buxton went back down to AAA last year and still struck out almost 30% of the time (albeit with power). I know walk and strikeout rates aren’t everything, but they seem to be pretty damn good indicators of MLB performance.
So the difference between 73 and 91 games is supposed to be dispositive?
Yeah, they were fairly aggressive in promoting him, and it hasn’t worked out. But if they had left him in Rochester for another half-season, hitting .350, then people would be complaining about holding back a guy who’s clearly ready and wondering if it was another Kris Bryant (138 games) situation.
My point is that Trout, the best player in the first five years of a career, stayed longer than Buxton.
It’s not just about rushing him, the Twins seem to have really struggled with teaching approach and pitch recognition to their prospects, as well as correctly tailoring hitting philosophies to a player’s strengths (Carlos Gomez, anyone?).
Hopefully the new management irons this out, and hopefully it’s not too late to salvage Buxton.
I think this is the key. The old regime, from what I could tell, had really strong opinions on the “right” way to pitch or hit. While not everyone can be Ray Searage, the best development programs can recognize that not everyone can follow exactly the same model.
there you go. twins staff have not found a way to reach him and provide good instruction. That is their job. He too may be difficult to coach, but MLB staff get paid to deal with these ‘stars in the making’. He is still very young… a lot of room for growth.
Atlanta could take him on and in two years he’s playing All-Star caliber CF… six pack says it’s happening!
I don’t think you’ve addressed the one issue that makes Buxton’s situation so concerning and so different from every other player you mentioned. No other players has shown such a massive gap between expectations and performance, and at some point, you have to worry Buxton simply can’t manage the pressure of playing in the majors.
Buxton was continually ranked among baseball’s top 10 prospects since being drafted in 2012 as was often in the top 3, so expectations could not be higher. In his first crack at the majors, in 2015 he utterly failed as a hitter with a 53 wRC+.
He was even worse in 2016 his first two stints in the majors and in 216 at-bats put up a 45 wRC+ and a higher k-rate.
It was only when he received a fourth chance last September that he played to expectations with a 165 wRC+. His k-rate was still very much a concern
So if Buxton were to fail again when he seemed on the verge of establishing himself, I would worry that might so undermine his confidence he’d face a steep psychological hill to approach again the sort of expectations he’s lived with for five years. And from the description of posters who have watch his at-bats and seen wildly different approaches and an inability to adjust to the pitch, it seems that toll is already apparent. Their observations are matched by plate discipline stats: He is swinging at 41% of pitches outside the strike zone, a significantly worse mark than in 2015 and 2016, his whiff rate is nearly 25%, also much worse than the prior two years.
Buxton was not a player who struggled with k-rates before his MLB debut in 2015, but his k-rate regressed in AAA from 2015 to 2016, evidence that he was pressing, and it appears his month of success last year, instead of boosting his confidence, has only heightened his fear of failure.
I was baffled by all the hype this guy was getting coming into 2017, he’s never given any indication he’s ready to perform in the majors.
In Sept/Oct of last year, he had 113 PA. Over that time he had a wRC+ of 165. That counts as an indication that he’s ready to perform in the majors.
Not really. That 1+ month was built on the backs of a .370 BABIP and a .366 ISO. Neither of those are ever going to happen over the course of a full season with Buxton. Maybe he’s a true .330 or .340 BABIP guy, but no one is a .370. And Buxton is definitely not a .366 ISO guy. Last year was smoke and mirrors and luck.
I’ve been saying it for over a year, and nothing has changed: He’s not a good hitter.
His minor league ISOs were built on completely unsustainable numbers of triples. No one hits 20+ triples in the majors anymore, and he’s not going to be the first. Even last year, he was on pace for about 12 triples over a full season. That’s nice, but it doesn’t make up for his ~15 homerun power and terrible plate discipline.
He did fairly well on that front in AA in 2015, with a 2:1 K:BB ratio. But instead of letting him repeat AA for a full or nearly full season, he was pushed up to AAA, where he had a terrible 4:1 K:BB ratio. But because it was a good season statistically (built on an unsustainable .383 BABIP and mirage power numbers), he was again bumped up.
He needs to go all the way back to AA for half a year and produce real gains in plate discipline before he’s even sent back up to AAA. Right now, he’s early-career Carlos Gomez with even worse plate discipline.
He averaged 17 triples and 23 doubles per 550 AB in the minors. Convert that 10 and 30, and his ISO falls by a whopping .013.
I don’t think that was the issue.
Wasn’t there a stretch last year where Giancarlo Stanton went like 0-17 with 15 K’s?
Not necessarily connected thoughts: I’m compelled to read anything i can about Buxton, even the bad. I still believe. Or, im’ admittedly over-invested in him that i have to see it through to whatever conclusion comes. Whether he figures it out or not, a part of the Buxton story (IMO) will wind up being the zenith of prospect coverage-hype-promotion and it’s effect on the MLB game. Buxton was the first ‘next Mike Trout’. I started worrying about Buxton when he was at the top of prospect rankings for a 3rd-straight year.
Maybe Buxton can turn into an excellent GM like Billy Beane did.
One thing that I have noticed about Buxton is that he takes a while to find his groove, almost as though he’s a slow learner/adjuster. However, I feel that once he gets it, he’s solid. I don’t mean that he’s streaker either, just that if he’s not locked in, he’s lost, and it takes him a while to get locked in.
I think the adjustments to his swing are better than what they were, but I absolutely feel that he would also greatly benefit from a more crouched and wider stance, and possibly more open. I think this would help him see the ball better and more leveler, be quicker to react, and more explosive. Think Harpers stance from right side of the plate, but wider. That is what I’d like to see from him. I think he’s too upright and close together, and this isn’t good for his swing and pitch recognition.
For god’s sake I hope he’s not a streaker, I won’t want to see him start running through the outfield stark naked.
I think what we were discussing earlier about his mechanics getting out of whack easily might tie into this streakiness, too.
And he’s still somehow out slugging Leonys Martin. Aside from the strikeout rate, these two are playing the same game.
To make matters worse, he has faced pretty bad pitching comparatively to a lot of players. Not a lot of big K guys leading to those K numbers. I could understand it if he faced say Verlander and Sale etc. But the aces he faced were sub elite K guys like Duffy and Quintana.
People. He just turned 23 in December. Can we cut the kid some slack? Twins have done just as much to screw him up as anything else. Old guys in their 50’s and 60’s should have known better!