C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, and The Manic Marlins
As of this writing — and the way news is breaking right now, this could be outdated in anywhere from twelve hours to twelve seconds — the market for C.J. Wilson still stands at two teams: the Angels and Marlins. The common assumption was that the Marlins would pull out of the Wilson sweepstakes after landing Mark Buehrle last this afternoon, but at the moment, they have left their six-year offer on the table. Considering that the Marlins were willing to commit $220 million to Albert Pujols, it appears that a mere $58 million deal is not going to prevent them from jumping back in on another big-name free agent — especially when the trade market for starting pitchers is so steep.
With Buehrle off the market,it begins to get a bit easier to make some estimates on how much C.J. Wilson will get paid. The FanGraphs crowd-sourcing project had originally pegged Wilson as signing a 5 year, $15.5 million/year contract, but the Marlins have thrown a wrench in everything by giving Buehrle a contract with an AAV of $14.5 million. Since Buehrle was considered the second best pitcher on the market behind Wilson, it follows that Wilson should get a considerable amount more than that and will likely surpass his FanGraphs estimates. Then again, it seems unlikely that he approaches Roy Halladay’s deal from last offseason ($20m AAV) or surpass Jered Weaver’s current deal ($17m AAV).
Here’s where things get interesting to me: if the Marlins sign Wilson as well as Buehrle, they’ll then have two left-handed starters locked up through their age 36 season. If we assume that Wilson gets paid around $17 million/year (and we know Buehrle will receive $14.5m/year), which deal looks the best?
It seems as though most people like the idea of Buehrle for four year more than Wilson for six — signing a pitcher for that long a contract almost always ends badly — but I’m not sure I see it. Wilson is easily the better pitcher of the two, as he’s posted impressive stats while starting over the past two seasons and has only improved over time (3.24 FIP and 3.44 SIERA in 2011). He’s better than Buehrle was at the same age, and he’s arguably better right now than Buehrle has ever been. If this was simply a matter of which pitcher I’d prefer to have over the next two years, I’d take Wilson hands down, even if I had to pay a little bit more for him.
On that note, do we think Wilson will post lower than a 3.90-4.00 FIP over the next two seasons? Assuming he doesn’t get injured, that seems quite doable and like a low-end projection for him, but that’s exactly how Buehrle has performed over the past two seasons…and the Marlins are willing to commit $14.5 million on him for another four years.
So in other words, Wilson seems like a solid bet (especially given his relatively clean injury history) to be a better pitcher at age 32-33 than Buehrle. If the Marlins are willing to commit $14.5 million on Buehrle — and that looks like a good deal — then I don’t see the huge problem with making a similar commitment to Wilson over that same time frame.
Yes, it’s certainly risky to sign a pitcher to such a long term deal, and this could bite the Marlins in the butt in a few years. The odds that something will go wrong during the contract increases with each year added, but the Marlins seem most concerned with improving their team in the short term; they want to field a competitive team next season to show fans they are turning over a new leaf. Wilson would dramatically improve their rotation in 2012 (especially if the Marlins’ ballpark is as pitcher-friendly as it looks), and if they want to add another ace starter, they’re not going to find a better deal out there.
If the Marlins also sign Wilson, they’ll have transformed their rotation for a weak spot to one of the best in their division: Josh Johnson, C.J. Wilson, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Buehrle, and Ricky Nolasco. Neither Wilson or Buehrle may be Albert Pujols, but hey, they still combined for 9.3 WAR last season — considerably higher than Pujols has produced in a few years — and they come much cheaper.
Piper was the editor-in-chief of DRaysBay and the keeper of the FanGraphs Library.
I’m with you. Conventional wisdom seems to be that Buehrle > Wilson, but unless Buehrle’s going to reach back in time and pull that 6.3 WAR from 2005 out of his figurative ass, then I don’t see why Buehrle’s > Wilson. I do understand why you would pay Buehrle a little more for the 200 IP “guarantee”, but Wilson’s the guy who is more likely to pitch like an ace, particularly if you get him out of the American League and especially if you get him out of Texas.
For what it’s worth, I haven’t seen one person mention that Buehrle > Wilson. I have no idea how you consider that to be conventional wisdom. Hell, the article even states “Since Buehrle was considered the second best pitcher on the market behind Wilson”.
I just think Buehrle is less risky. I’d rather take a 75% or whatever chance of getting 3 WAR a season than risk having a Barry Zito contract on my books. I know CJ is awesome, but I think there is a thought in the community that he’s going to turn into a pumpkin.
If the Marlins get Wilson, their pitching is top 3, maybe 2nd best in baseball.
Maybe so, but only if JJ pitches something close to a full season. I would not hold my breath.
WHAT? Impossible. You are completely forgetting about the Red Sox, who JUST last year landed the top free agent starter… Hrm… perhaps not the best example. And also a reason why I might not bid quite so high on second-tier aces in thin pitching markets.
Which is not to say Wilson is Lackey, but I think people get a bit too excited over the top FA pitcher every year- even if the guy isn’t exactly lights out. Wilson is solid, he feels to me like a #2 on a good team. #2 pitchers I’d take over him include Cain, Lee, Haren, and Greinke/Gallardo. I’m also unsure I would take Wilson next year over a bunch of the young-gun #2 starters like Pineda, Hudson, Bumgarner, etc (and I’d certainly give those guys an edge going forward).
So… I donno. Even with Wilson, I can’t say I’d be shaking in my boots from the Marlins rotation. I’m seeing one ace who can’t stay healthy, one old reliable who can, a couple of guys who have been up and down, plus Wilson- a #2 who I’d put in the top third of #2’s.
The Red Sox signed Lee last year? Philadelphia must be confused.
Wilson was the #1 starter on a team that went to the World Series two years in a row.
” If the Marlins get Wilson, their pitching is top 3, maybe 2nd best in baseball. ”
wait so between the Phillies, Giants, and Braves… which teams did you forget about?
they might not even have a better staff than the Brewers, Rays, or Angels
or Cardinals or As, or maybe even Tigers
Yeah, I’m not sure why people like Buehrle over Wilson, or even if they do. Unless Wilson compeltely implodes in terms of talent or his shoulder EXplodes, he’ll easily beat Buehrle in value, I think. Part of the reasoning is that Buehrle got PAID, though.
If the comparison was at Buehrle’s expected cost (3/$36 million) and the new hypothetical for Wilson (6/$102 million), I would take Buehrle, I think. However, that Buehrle’s added a year and $2.5 million per season to his contract, it’s different.
If Wilson gets $17 million per season and we use Dave’s $5 million/win number for 2012, it’s pretty easy for Wilson to beat Buehrle in the short-term. He’s only $2.5 million more than Buehrle in that scenario, meaning he only has to be 0.5 WAR better in 2012.
In 2010-2011, Buehrle totaled 7.1 WAR. In that same span, Wilson’s WAR was 10.5. We’re looking at a 3.4-win difference on average (the gap was smaller in 2010 and bigger in 2011, but I took an average for the hell of it). In one season, that’s obviously 1.7 wins. By that $5 million/win totla, we have Wilson valued at $8.5 million more valuable than Buehrle.
Wilson’s only getting $2.5 million more, so that means Wilson is getting $6 million in excess value in 2012. Take that into consideration for 2013, and you only need to get $11 million of value, or 2.07 WAR (based on Dave’s projected $5.3 million/win number for 2013) for Buehrle and Wilson to be equal in terms of cost vs. production IF Buehrle is worth $14.5 million in 2012 AND 2013.
So, basically, Wilson’s projected to be worth $8.5 million more for $2.5 million more. To back track a little, thats’ $6 million in extra value over Buehrle per season. If you go with the assumption that trend continues for all four years (not that anyone expects it to, just doing an extracurricular hypothetical), Wilson is worth an extra $24 million compared to Buehrle, relative to their expected $/WAR difference (it’s actually higher if you use that consistent 1.7/year figure, but I kept it as a constant for hypothetically-equal talent degredation).
So, by the time Buehrle’s gone, Wilson will have stockpiled $24 million in extra value. In his last two season, he’ll make $34 million (if it’s a flat rate contract; even if it’s not, using the annual salary will sort of work best for a quick math problem like this, rather than solving WAR and $ variances on-the-fly). So, take away that $24 million in extra value, and you come up with just $10 million that Wilson is making, relative to his contract value by the time Buehrle is gone.
That’s 2016, by the way. Dave’s got 2016-2017 pegged for a $/WAR of $6.1 million/win and $6.4 million/win, respectively. To average, that’s $6.25 million for those last two seasons. To make up that $10 million salary, Wilson needs to be worth just 1.6 WAR over those two years COMBINED, a pretty easy task, I think.
So, if you use the hypothetical 4- and 6-year deals for the two pitchers and their comparisons since Wilson became a starter (tough to do with only two years of data, but I have fun with this stuff sometimes), it’s pretty obvious Wilson can outvalue Buehrle with ease.
I’ll end with this: I know that the exact numbers are going to be rather flawed. I didn’t want to spend the next hour or two solving it all out precisely because:
1. I’ve got a math test I have to finish online by midnight (go go, gadget PROCRASTINATION!).
2. Because #1 was surpassed by my curiosity (and I wanted to procrastinate), I wanted to do something I could solve quickly and easily without needing anything but the computer’s calculator and a few FG tabs opened, haha.
I was using a very basic idea to show that Wilson, even with a higher contract of $102 million over 6 years, could rather easily outpace Buehrle in value, even if Buehrle is cheaper and signed for less.
It would take a MAJOR injury or some Buehrle voo-doo for Wilson to not be the better deal.
“I’ve got a math test I have to finish online by midnight (go go, gadget PROCRASTINATION!)”
So you are one of those… (I teach online English and typically don’t bother looking to see if there is stuff to grade until 11:58 pm on Sunday for work due that week)
Wow, I didn’t realize just how few batters Buehrle strikes out anymore. Given how pitcher-friendly the new stadium sounds like it’ll be though, it might not matter.
Wilson and Buehrle are only cheaper than Albert when you look at total contract value. However, the AAV of their contracts will far exceed Albert’s
The braves, phillies, and giants will all have much stronger rotations. The braves rotation wil also be much much deeper. At best, the fish will have the third best pitiching in their own division. Unless Johnson pitiches like a true ace all season, they maynot even be a top 10 rotation, despite the fa pickups. Anaheim, miluwalke, the cardinals, and the rays will prbly be better with or without jj’s health, depending on wainwright. Plus I could easily see Boston, the dodgers, and mabye even Texas being better if Feliz becomes a solid starter.
Scratch the dodgers.
Did the Marlins hit the powerball or something?
Signed Bell, Reyes, Buehrle and possibly Wilson and Pujols.
Has ANY team ever added so much budget over 1 off-season? The NYY and the big 3? The Marlins previously?
I’m not complaining because I like to see the aggressiveness and the excitement from a previously boring team. But, I suppose I am not unique in wondering if we’ll see half these guys on other teams after 2 years.
MIA will certainly be garnering more national attention than they have in the past. Have their season ticket sales been increasing after each FA signing? Did they weather change in FLA or does it still rain every day at 3:00 and then remain a muggy as hell evening?
Agree 100% Circle. What will Loria do if his income doesn’t meet his payroll? Will MLB intervene in this team in 2 or 3 years? I don’t mind at all any team spending to be competitive. BUT, Is this big business runnning amuck as it effects ownership little. Someone, and it probably won’t be Loria, will pay for this down the line. By the way Keith… WAAAAAAY too long. C’mon!
Correct me if I’m wrong, but Wilson can no longer sign with the Marlins. Bell, Reyes, and Buehrle gives them the maximum quota of 3 type A or B guys, and they haven’t lost enough to qualify under the old CBA to sign a fourth. I’d assume as we’re still using the old rules this offseason that this still applies.
Crowdsourcing FTW on Wilson, ended up getting it dead on.
Wow: Marlins reportedly offered BOTH Pujols and Wilson MORE than the Angels did!
They reportedly offered Pujols 10 years @ $275 million!:
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/12/albert-pujols-angels-marlins-bigger-offer-miami/1
CJ Wilson himself says, “But if it were just about money I’d be a Marlin, straight up, because they offered more money, they have a great situation.”
http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111208&content_id=26127586