Can the 2025 Phillies Avoid Becoming the 2019 Sixers?

Philadelphia, late in a must-win road game in a tightly contested playoff series, has all but gotten a stop. The team has held serve, against all odds blanking its opponent to force another frame and extend the season. Then, all of a sudden, the ball does something weird. It goes in a direction nobody anticipated, and as the entire Delaware Valley looks on in disbelieving horror, the home team scores to seal a walk-off win and advance to the next round.

I’m sure you’ve deduced from the lack of proper nouns in the previous paragraph that I’m not talking about the recently concluded Phillies-Dodgers NLDS, or the Orion Kerkering throwing error that ended it. No, I’m talking about this.

Oh yeah, Phillies fans, we’re gonna feel even worse than you thought today.

A big part of my brand, as a writer, is obnoxiously overdetermined metaphors, and this is no exception.

Like Sixers-Raptors in 2019, Phillies-Dodgers this year was a renewal of a memorable postseason matchup from nearly two decades before. In both cases, this second-round matchup was viewed as a de facto league/conference final, with an as-yet-unproven no. 1 seed from Milwaukee awaiting the victor. The Philadelphia team had poked and prodded around a long playoff run, and had finally filled a long-lasting gap in the roster with a blockbuster midseason trade. Philadelphia’s bench boss, a well-liked longtime assistant coach who came to his first head coaching role late in his career, was starting to invite questions about his late-game decision-making.

I’ll spell it out for those of you with a Lindberghian aversion to sports other than baseball. In this metaphor, Manny Ramirez is Vince Carter, Jhoan Duran is Jimmy Butler, Rob Thomson is Brett Brown. The Point is the photo of Joel Embiid leaning in to watch Kawhi Leonard’s ball find the magnets in the rim. Andrew Painter is Markelle Fultz. Harrison Bader is Mike Scott. Ippei Mizuhara is Kawhi’s infamous Uncle Dennis. I could go on.

Then as now, Philadelphia enters an offseason of great uncertainty. For roughly half a decade, the plan had been to find an ascendant superstar — Bryce Harper, who is Embiid in this metaphor — and build around him. And while cracks had appeared here and there in previous postseason runs, it’s clear now that the center (or the first baseman, in this case) can no longer hold.

Something has to change.

For the Sixers, things did, and quickly. Butler made it clear from the start that he could not coexist with Ben Simmons; Butler was sent to Miami the following summer. The Sixers filled that hole in the salary structure (if not the lineup) by bringing in longtime Embiid nemesis Al Horford as a second starting big man. Having won the power struggle with Butler, Simmons’ game devolved to an extent and in a fashion hitherto unseen for a player of his ability and age. Brown lasted just one more season before the Sixers replaced him with Dr. Glenn Rivers.

The sum total of those moves was a series of failures, each more humiliating than the one before. Of the 26 players who suited up for the Sixers in 2018-19, only Embiid remains in the organization. And they’ve never had a title shot as good since.

The Phillies’ situation is similar, but somewhat less dire. To say nothing of a basketball team can be playoff-proofed to an extent that is simply not possible in baseball. After collapsing against an inferior Diamondbacks team in the 2023 NLCS and no-showing against the Mets last year, the 2025 Phillies gave a good account of themselves in four games against the Dodgers. They got contributions up and down the lineup and neutralized Shohei Ohtani so completely at the plate that it even shocked Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. They held the potent Dodgers offense to just 13 runs and a .199/.280/.277 batting line over four games.

Of course, that matters only so much in this results-based business. The hour is too late for moral victories; as Jayson Stark noted in The Athletic last week, the 2022-25 Phillies have had a level of lineup stability unseen in the majors since the 1998-2001 Yankees. And that team achieved, um, considerably more than this one.

“This time, [the Phillies] can’t run it back. That’s just the deal. That’s how life works. That’s how baseball works. That’s how Philadelphia works,” Stark wrote. And he’s right. Last year I urged moderation; no longer. The people demand heads on pikes. Let’s try to identify which heads, starting with two general principles.

When I was part of a union bargaining committee, we often found ourselves stuck or frustrated with a lack of progress at the bargaining table. When that happened, someone (frequently me, to my colleagues’ repeated irritation) would pipe up with a half-cocked and incendiary idea to put pressure on management. At those times, our tireless negotiator would ask, genuinely: “Would that be constructive, or would it just be cathartic?”

That’s principle no. 1. Kerkering is a useful example here. I’m sure it would feel good to ship this postseason’s Bucknerite goat off to Timbuktu, or worse, Sacramento. But consider that this team is already probably a high-leverage relief arm short, and that pitchers as talented as Kerkering — especially ones making pre-arbitration money — don’t grow on trees. Let’s be unsentimental, sure, but let’s not be rash.

Principle no. 2: Don’t try to win in 2026 by solving for specific problems in 2025. That’s what sank the Sixers after the loss to Toronto six years ago. They spent oodles of money on Horford, ostensibly on the spurious premise that he and Embiid could share the court. In reality, it was ludicrously expensive insurance for an Embiid injury, and a guarantee that Horford couldn’t guard the Sixers’ star in the playoffs. This myopic view of roster construction backfired immediately; Horford lasted only one year in Philadelphia, in which time he was as much a hindrance to the Sixers’ title hopes as he had been when he was playing against them.

So rather than trying to go back and solve for the specific issues that sank the Phillies in 2025, let’s try to be proactive and look forward. Especially because extra pitcher fielding practice at spring training doesn’t cost a dime or require any roster moves. Who ought to come back?

These are players who are either under contract or team control through 2026, who are expected to be healthy at the start of camp and so unlikely to move in the offseason that the possibility isn’t worth discussing. I’ve been fairly circumspect here; everyone on this list except Nola performed well during the regular season, and everyone except Harper and maybe Strahm was great during the playoffs. Even if you could move on from these seven players, why would you want to?

Schwarber’s free agency is the big story for this offseason. Apparently, he’s going through a little bit of a diet Pete Alonso situation; Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that the reigning NL home run champ, age 32, is after a five-year contract. I’m skeptical that Schwarber will get that, given his age and the total nullity of his defensive value.

He is, however, the best pure hitter on the market, though probably not the best position player overall. Even if he only gets three or four years in free agency, he’s in line for a steep raise over the $19.75 million AAV on his expiring contract. The Phillies reportedly are going to do what it takes to keep him around, and even with the obvious flaws in Schwarber’s game, I don’t know if they have any other choice. He’s such a foundational part of the team, both on and off the field, that there really isn’t another option.

Alvarado is the other big moving piece here; he was suspended for half the year, and hurt at the end of the season anyway. But he’s been a versatile high-leverage arm since he came to Philadelphia in 2021, and it’ll be hard to find a better option on the open market for less than the $9 million Alvarado is due in his club option.

Sosa is one of the better utility infielders in baseball; he can legitimately play shortstop and he’s a weapon against lefties, against whom he hit .318/.362/.533 this season. This year, he spelled Bryson Stott against tough platoon matchups, and filled in for Turner and Alec Bohm when they were hurt. If the $3.9 million arbitration estimate is close to accurate, he’d be a bargain.

Banks and Marchán are this high mostly because of cost. Banks is a solid medium-leverage lefty, a crucial piece for the regular season, if a bit short of being playoff-quality. And Marchán, well, he’s an actual big league-quality backup catcher, which is just fine for a first-year arbitration guy.

Now, we’re coming up to players where Dave Dombrowski and his underlings will actually have to make a decision. Under different circumstances, this might be a convenient time to move on from Realmuto, who’ll be 35 next year and is coming off his first below-average offensive season since 2015. Realmuto made $23.1 million a year in his most recent contract, and if someone wants to match that on a multi-year deal, well, a smart GM would probably be willing to let someone else make that mistake.

On the other hand… I don’t really know what the better option is. I don’t think Marchán is a full-time starter, and even a declining Realmuto is likely to be the best catcher on the market by a wide margin. The Phillies could easily get cheaper behind the plate, but they’d have to live with getting much worse.

Bader has a $10 million mutual option for 2026, which isn’t going to get picked up for two reasons. First, mutual options never get exercised. And second, Bader was way better than a $10 million player this season. In fact, his arrival at the trade deadline did almost as much to revitalize the team as Duran’s. As a legitimate center fielder who can hit lefties, he allowed Marsh to slide over to left and improved the Phillies markedly on both sides of the ball. Even though re-signing him would be buying high, it might be doable depending on how expensive it is to re-sign (or replace) Schwarber and Realmuto.

Stott is probably never going to be an impact hitter, though some midseason tweaks had him posting a 135 wRC+ in the second half. Nevertheless, he’s a very good defender and a terrific baserunner who’s capable of playing shortstop in an emergency. He was sixth among major league second basemen in WAR this past season, and is a quality complementary piece.

Marsh, as I said, was stretched as an everyday center fielder, but is more than adequate on the long side of a corner outfield platoon. And unless the Phillies think the throwing error is going to do lasting and irreparable damage to Kerkering’s psyche, he’s going to be one of Duran’s key setup men in next year’s postseason.

I would, however, move any one of those players in the right deal, if I were in Dombrowski’s shoes. If a challenge trade came along that offered the opportunity to improve an area of greater need, this is the part of the roster I’d look to deal from.

Ditto Walker, who against all odds is tradeable again in the final year of his contract. Given the great uncertainty around the back end of the Phillies rotation, it’d be nice to have a reliable veteran at the no. 4 or no. 5 spot. But while I wouldn’t be actively shopping Walker, neither would I write his name on next year’s roster in pen.

While I’d listen to offers about Stott, Marsh, and Kerkering, I think Bohm — who’s in his last year of arbitration — ought to be on his way out the door. Bohm isn’t a bad player in a vacuum, but he’s not good enough for the role the Phillies have cast him in. Over the past two seasons, Bohm has started 128 games as their cleanup hitter, making him Thomson’s most-used four-hole guy in that time. And he’s hit .270/.316/.415, which is a wRC+ of 100. He’s grounded into 16 double plays as the primary right-handed threat behind the Phillies’ two best left-handed hitters.

What this means is, Thomson has a lineup with a couple elite hitters and enviable depth, but an average hitter at a position that requires a star.

With only a year of team control remaining, I’m under no illusions that Bohm would fetch a monster return. But he’d be useful for someone, and bring back some valuable depth in pitching or high-minors position players. If nothing else, I’d probably rather see this $10 million allocated elsewhere, and hand third base over to Sosa and a platoon partner until Aidan Miller is ready.

Suárez has developed a cult following in Philadelphia after years of yawning through one scoreless playoff start after another. Actually, calling him a cult hero is a bit of an insult; he was 12th in WAR among major league starters in 2025. Unfortunately, that performance probably prices him out of a return to Philadelphia, because he’s in line to make, if not ace money then at least no. 2 starter money as a free agent.

Keeping the current rotation together would require the Phillies to spend somewhere in the neighborhood of $130 million on starting pitching alone in 2026, and that’s with Sánchez on a bargain contract. I expect them to recoup a draft pick when Suárez declines the qualifying offer, and give him a nice tribute video when he comes back to pitch as an Oriole or a Cub or whatever.

Buehler’s a similar story; the Phillies could use him as depth, but he’d be better off going where money and innings are more plentiful.

Sorry for panicking anyone who was looking for Wheeler in the first section. When he’s healthy, he’s arguably the Phillies’ most important player and a top-three starting pitcher in baseball. I think there’s a pretty reasonable argument to be made that if he were healthy, the Phillies would still be playing.

Unfortunately, thoracic outlet syndrome is not an injury from which we can assume a full and predictable recovery. (I wrote an explainer on the condition back in 2018 when Fultz was diagnosed with it, in case you were wondering how deep the Sixers parallels went.) It’s not the career-ender it was even a decade ago, and Wheeler’s version — venous, as opposed to neurogenic — is the less problematic. Wheeler had decompression surgery in late September, and with a recovery timeline of between six and eight months, that puts him on schedule to return sometime between Opening Day and Memorial Day 2026.

If Wheeler is indeed back in the Philadelphia rotation and pitching like an ace on June 1 of next year, that’d be a hugely positive outcome for the Phillies. It’s definitely possible, but I wouldn’t plan an entire pennant race around it.

Fortunately, there are reinforcements coming.

More than anything, the reason the Phillies have had such a stable lineup is that they’ve gotten absolute bupkis from their own prospect pipeline since this run started in 2022. They’ve used prospects, even high-minors prospects, to great effect in the trade market in that time; that’s how they got Marsh, Luzardo, Carlos Estévez, David Robertson (the second time), Bader, and Duran.

But they’ve gotten almost nothing from players who’ve debuted since Thomson took over. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Phillies have handed major league debuts to only 24 players, third fewest in baseball behind only the Yankees and Braves. Fully half of those 24 came in 2022; the Phillies have had just 12 debutants over the past three seasons combined. Three clubs brought in more new major league blood in 2025 alone.

Drill down a little and you’ll find that three of those, including Stott, debuted before Thomson became manager on June 3, 2022. And of the 21 Phillies who played their first big league game under Thomson, only about 1 1/2 have been worth a damn.

This, I think, explains most of the stagnation around the Phillies roster. And it’s going to change in 2026. I wouldn’t count on all four of those prospects coming up and contributing — Painter is entering his fourth straight season of being on the verge of a call-up — but for the first time since 2022, I would expect the Phillies to get meaningful reinforcements from their farm system.

And here are the remaining members of the 2025 Phillies, apart from some replacement-level pre-arbitration guys who filled out the bench. I don’t think letting go of any of the pitchers will be controversial. Kepler’s signing never made much sense to me to begin with — the Phillies needed another left-handed-hitting corner outfielder like they needed a poke in the eye — but he played fairly well in a platoon role down the stretch and wasn’t bad in the NLDS.

But this feels like the end of the line for Castellanos, who’s been frustrating at best through the first four years of his five-year contract with the Phillies. He was one of the 10 least valuable full-time position players in baseball in both 2022 and 2024, and this past year he was the worst qualified position player in the majors. I blamed the Phillies’ startling lack of cleanup production on Bohm earlier, but Castellanos has made 80 starts there over the past two seasons as well.

He had a couple clutch hits in losing efforts in Games 2 and 4 of the NLDS, but apart from those two bloop doubles, he went 0-for-13. The infamous failed sac bunt in the ninth inning of Game 2 is as much on Castellanos, who took an eternity to get from second to third base, as it was on Stott for poor execution or Thomson for calling it in the first place. And since we’re talking about Thomson, a few weeks ago Castellanos made the unusual decision to declare in a press scrum that he and his manager were barely on speaking terms.

Surely Castellanos knew then that he was inviting the Phillies to choose between their manager and their disappointing right fielder. And with Thomson back for 2026 (which is the decision I would’ve made, though it was worth considering other options), Castellanos might even prefer a move. That “move” is probably going to be a de facto release. Nobody’s going to offer much of anything for a $20 million corner outfielder who hasn’t even been a two-win player since 2021.

Here’s where that leaves the Phillies.

I’ve left off a couple back-end players, like Banks, Marchán, Weston Wilson, and Otto Kemp, but if the 2026 season hinges on those guys, the Phillies are missing the playoffs and everyone’s getting fired. Even without Wheeler, Miller, and whatever the Phillies might get in return for Bohm, this is a contending team as listed.

But it’s going to be old, and it’s going to be expensive. If the Phillies trade Bohm without taking on any major league salary in return, eat the last year of Castellanos’ deal, and let everything else ride, they’re looking at somewhere around $215 million in payroll just in guaranteed contracts and arbitration awards. Pre-arbitration and minor league salaries, player benefits, and the pre-arbitration bonus pool payments — all liabilities under competitive balance tax math — take the payroll over the first CBT threshold before the Phillies have even thought about re-signing Schwarber, Realmuto, and Bader, or adding anyone else.

That’d cost, by my best guess, somewhere between $60 million and $80 million against the tax, depending on how nuts the market gets for Schwarber, and what a legit free agent center fielder is worth. (I have no idea, for the record. I can’t find a remotely reasonable free agent comp for Bader since Jackie Bradley Jr. in 2021-22.)

Phillies owner John Middleton has talked a big game about spending whatever it takes to win. If he continues to make good on that rhetoric, the Phillies can start to turn over the roster gradually and roll into a fifth straight postseason appearance. But they shouldn’t take for granted that this run will go on forever. If they want to know what happens when things start to go sideways, they need only look across the parking lot.