Cardinals Trade for Brandon Moss After Holliday Injury

The St. Louis Cardinals have reacted quickly to Matt Holliday’s injury, trading last night for Cleveland Indians’ outfielder/first baseman Brandon Moss. If Holliday, who already missed a month with a quad tear earlier this season, did not re-injure his quad in a game last night, the St. Louis Cardinals very well could have stood pat through the rest of the trading deadline. The team has had trouble all year finding production at first base, but had recently called up top hitting prospect Stephen Piscotty. With Holliday back from the disabled list, and the addition of Piscotty, the team hoped the offense would improve after experiencing some struggles heading into the All-Star break. The Holliday injury scuttled those plans, and they paid a fairly high price for a somewhat struggling Moss in Rob Kaminsky, a top-100 prospect heading into this season.

The move speaks to the lack of optimism that the Cardinals have about the return of Holliday. Already missing Matt Adams and getting little to no production from backup Mark Reynolds, the team was rumored to have been in talks with the Milwaukee Brewers for Adam Lind. Consecutive shutout losses to the Cincinnati Reds highlighted the Cardinals’ struggle to score runs, but the injury to Holliday created a real need. Even at 35, Holliday was likely going to be the Cardinals’ best hitter moving forward. His power had dropped off in the first half of the season just like it had in 2014, but a strong second half that included 14 home runs provided hope that Holliday’s bat could still do a lot of damage. His .290/.409/.420 line was still good for a 134 wRC+ and his projections for the rest of the season were in line with those numbers.

Brandon Moss got a late start to the majors, never fully escaping the minors until 2012 when, already 28 years old, he found a role with Oakland. The 31-year-old spent three season with A’s, hitting .254/.340/.504 with 76 home runs and a 135 wRC+ in 1381 plate appearances. Although he has been a roughly average hitter without the platoon advantage in his career, Oakland limited his appearances against lefties and he has received fewer than 500 plate appearances against them in his career. Moss has the profile of a Three True Outcomes player, striking out 26% of the time and walking at a 9% rate to go along with 70 home runs since the beginning of the 2013 season.

Moss’ 2014 season was derailed by a hip injury that required surgery. In the first half of 2014, Moss had 21 home runs and a wRC+ of 148, but the injury slowed Moss, he had a dreadful second half, and the A’s traded him to the Indians for Joey Wendle. Moss, making just $6.5 million this season, has one more year of arbitration before he is eligible for free agency. His 2015 season has not been nearly as poor as his second half of 2014, but the Indians did not receive the production they expected from Moss. Playing full-time, Moss hit well in April, but has seen a steady decline in his production since then and his line on the season is .217/.288/.407 with a 94 wRC+ and 15 home runs.

It is not yet clear how the Cardinals plan to use Moss, who has played an adequate corner outfield and a subpar first base. In many ways, Moss in his present form replicates what the Cardinals already have in Mark Reynolds. Between left field and first base, the Cardinals have two positions to split between Reynolds, Piscotty, and Moss. While the Cardinals could move Randal Grichuk to left field and start Peter Bourjos in center field, the Cardinals have already had previous multiple opportunities to give Bourjos regular starts in center field, but have shown little desire to do so. Piscotty and Moss both seem better fits in the outfield, but Piscotty was brought up with the opportunity to play first base in place of the slumping Reynolds. With the designated hitter and days off for Holliday and Heyward, Piscotty has played more outfield than first base since his recall, a situation that might convince the club to leave Piscotty in the outfield while platooning Moss and Reynolds at first base.

The move was not without cost for the Cardinals, who gave up one of their very best prospects in Rob Kaminsky. Before the season started, Kaminsky appeared on multiple top-100 prospect lists, including No. 99 on Kiley McDaniel’s list. This is what McDaniel said about the newly acquired Kaminsky:

Kaminsky isn’t the typical 1st round high school pitcher as he’s listed at 5-foot-11/191, but the stuff is big and there’s advanced feel to pitch. Kaminsky sits in the low-90’s, his changeup took a step forward in his first full year and his plus curveball is a now weapon that could get big leaguers out. The Cardinals have a good track record with developing young pitchers and Kaminsky is about as advanced as cold-weather bred 20-year-old arm can be, so he might move fast.

This season, the 20-year-old Kaminsky has held his own moving up a level with a 2.09 ERA and 2.53 FIP for High-A Palm Beach. In over 200 professional innings, Kaminsky has given up just four home runs. It is curious that St. Louis would choose to give up one of their better trade chips without receiving an impact bat like Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes in return. The Cardinals have depth near the major-league level with Tim Cooney and Tyler Lyons stepping in when needed, but outside of Alex Reyes, the Cardinals do not have any surefire prospects in the lower levels. The Indians did very well to get a prospect at Kaminsky’s level for an aging, struggling corner-type, effectively turning Joey Wendle and under $5 million into an average hitter for half a season plus a top-100 prospect. This trade reinforces the notion that this trade deadline is a seller’s market for hitters.

Moss looks to be more of an option to supplement or replace Reynolds than someone who can step in for Holliday. The Cardinals still have four-and-a-half game lead in the NL Central so they have a bit of a cushion to work with. In many ways, this trade is reminiscent of last season’s trade between Cleveland and St. Louis that sent James Ramsey to the Indians in exchange for Justin Masterson. The Cardinals gave up a decent prospect, although not on Kaminsky’s level, in the hopes that a struggling veteran could work out his issues and re-discover prior form. Masterson could not produce for the Cardinals and has seen his career take a nosedive in Boston. The Cardinals are clearly expecting better results this season and perhaps next given an extra year of control, but given the loss of Holliday, it is fair to wonder if the Cardinals are finished upgrading an offense to help their stellar pitching staff.