Casey Blake Remains A Dodger

Jayson Stark at ESPN.com recently reported that the Dodgers and Casey Blake reached an agreement for 3 yrs and around $17.1 million. The exact details of the contracts are not known as of this juncture, though I will update when they become available. Blake, a third baseman who has dabbled at several other positions throughout his career, joined the Dodgers towards the end of July last season. In 58 games wearing Dodger blue, he posted a .251/.313/.460 line with 10 home runs. This resulted in a slightly below average .327 wOBA.

All told, his -3 runs on offense, +1.4 runs on defense, and positional adjustment for playing third base pegged him as a league average player over the final two months of the season. With injuries to Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra, acquiring Blake allowed Joe Torre to shift Blake DeWitt to second base, stabilizing the defense and lineup, in a sense.

The average annual value of Blake’s supposed contract with the Dodgers is $5.7 mil, meaning that they would essentially be paying him to add about 1.15 wins above replacement per season. How does his 2009 projection look in this regard?

Marcel says Blake will hit .265/.336/.440, with 18 HR, and a .335 wOBA. His wOBA would basically represent the league average, and based on his projected playing time, he would be worth +1 run above average with the bat. He was -3.7 runs below average via UZR in 2007, and -4.7 in 2008. Let’s say, at worst, he is -5 runs at third base next season. Add in his +2.5 positional adjustment and +20 runs to represent value above replacement level, not average, and Blake is projected to be worth +18.5 runs in 2009. This easily converts to +1.85 WAR.

Assuming the going rate is around $5 mil/win this year, Blake’s fair market value for a one year deal is $9.25 mil. Factoring in a 10% discount rate for a multi-year deal, and an appropriate contract would be 3-yr/$25 mil. The Dodgers supposedly signed him for around $8 mil less than his projection calls for. Now, granted, Blake will be 36 by the end of the 2009 season, and when this contract ends, he will either become a utility bench player or retiree. Even with aging curves, though, there is little reason to think he will only be worth 3.45 WAR (the 1.15 WAR per year based don his $5.7 mil AAV) over the duration of this deal.

Having traded Andy LaRoche to acquire Manny Ramirez, it isn’t as if Blake’s signing will prevent a top-tiered prospect from earning playing time. He isn’t going to put the team over the top, or make up for Manny’s lost production if he signs elsewhere, but based on the committed money and his projected production, this looks like a very solid deal for the Dodgers.