Catching Nate McLouth Looking

In 2009, the Atlanta Braves had one of the worst outfields in the major leagues. Their outfielders combined to hit for a .319 wOBA and combined for a -23.6 UZR. Overall, their outfield was 40 runs below the league average – the main weak spot on a team that won 86 games and could have been right in the thick of a playoff race. The first step to improving that outfield came in June of 2009, as the Braves acquired Nate McLouth. It wasn’t enough to make a playoff run, but McLouth was a definite improvement. His .342 wOBA was a far cry above the failed seasons of Garret Anderson (.304 wOBA), Jeff Francoeur (.277), Jordan Schafer (.273), and Gregor Blanco (.244).

McLouth’s production has plummeted this season. Entering Thursday’s game, McLouth’s wOBA was a paltry .303, reminiscent of those 2009 Atlanta Braves outfielders whom he was imported to replace. Some of the telltale signs of random variation are there. McLouth’s .259 BABIP and 8.8% HR/FB rate are both career lows. His 13.4% walk rate is actually a career high.

However, there is one serious red flag with McLouth’s performance this season. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 29.1% against a career rate of 19.8%. As a result, despite a BABIP drop of only 22 points, McLouth’s batting average has fallen from .256 to .204. As a result, McLouth’s on base percentage has dropped by 28 points and his slugging has fallen by an alarming 86 points from the 2009 season.

His plate discipline numbers don’t offer an immediate answer as to why we are seeing this dramatic increase. McLouth’s swing rates, both inside and outside of the strike zone, are both quite low – around 8% below the league average – and his contact rates are above average. His plate discipline profile is very similar to his 2006 and 2007 seasons with Pittsburgh. In those years, McLouth struck out in 21.9% and 23.4% of at-bats respectively.

McLouth’s swinging strike rate of 5.1% is actually below his career average. Unsurprisingly, that means his kS% – percentage of plate appearances ending in a swinging strikeout – has remained around the levels of previous years and has actually decreased slightly from last year. That means that his kL% – strikeouts looking – is completely responsible for this increase in overall strikeouts. Indeed, McLouth’s kL% has risen to 13.4% – about triple his 2009 mark of 4.4% and the league average rate of 4.5%.

It would seem, then, that much of McLouth’s struggles are a result of looking at too many good pitches with two strikes. Taking pitches has always been a big part of McLouth’s offensive philosophy, so it is unsurprising that over a small sample some of the borderline pitches that McLouth watches, even on two strike counts, have gone for strikes instead of balls this year. This could be explained by simple random variation – poor calls from umpires, extraordinarily good control from pitchers in McLouth’s PAs – or it could also be explained by a decline in McLouth’s ability to perceive the strike zone.

It’s too early to say for sure which is the actual cause. However, one thing is clear: in order for McLouth to right the ship, he’s simply going to have to start making contact with these third strikes. If he doesn’t, his early season struggles will continue, as he simply does not have the skills to be productive with the increased strikeout rates.