Catching Nate McLouth Looking
In 2009, the Atlanta Braves had one of the worst outfields in the major leagues. Their outfielders combined to hit for a .319 wOBA and combined for a -23.6 UZR. Overall, their outfield was 40 runs below the league average – the main weak spot on a team that won 86 games and could have been right in the thick of a playoff race. The first step to improving that outfield came in June of 2009, as the Braves acquired Nate McLouth. It wasn’t enough to make a playoff run, but McLouth was a definite improvement. His .342 wOBA was a far cry above the failed seasons of Garret Anderson (.304 wOBA), Jeff Francoeur (.277), Jordan Schafer (.273), and Gregor Blanco (.244).
McLouth’s production has plummeted this season. Entering Thursday’s game, McLouth’s wOBA was a paltry .303, reminiscent of those 2009 Atlanta Braves outfielders whom he was imported to replace. Some of the telltale signs of random variation are there. McLouth’s .259 BABIP and 8.8% HR/FB rate are both career lows. His 13.4% walk rate is actually a career high.
However, there is one serious red flag with McLouth’s performance this season. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 29.1% against a career rate of 19.8%. As a result, despite a BABIP drop of only 22 points, McLouth’s batting average has fallen from .256 to .204. As a result, McLouth’s on base percentage has dropped by 28 points and his slugging has fallen by an alarming 86 points from the 2009 season.
His plate discipline numbers don’t offer an immediate answer as to why we are seeing this dramatic increase. McLouth’s swing rates, both inside and outside of the strike zone, are both quite low – around 8% below the league average – and his contact rates are above average. His plate discipline profile is very similar to his 2006 and 2007 seasons with Pittsburgh. In those years, McLouth struck out in 21.9% and 23.4% of at-bats respectively.
McLouth’s swinging strike rate of 5.1% is actually below his career average. Unsurprisingly, that means his kS% – percentage of plate appearances ending in a swinging strikeout – has remained around the levels of previous years and has actually decreased slightly from last year. That means that his kL% – strikeouts looking – is completely responsible for this increase in overall strikeouts. Indeed, McLouth’s kL% has risen to 13.4% – about triple his 2009 mark of 4.4% and the league average rate of 4.5%.
It would seem, then, that much of McLouth’s struggles are a result of looking at too many good pitches with two strikes. Taking pitches has always been a big part of McLouth’s offensive philosophy, so it is unsurprising that over a small sample some of the borderline pitches that McLouth watches, even on two strike counts, have gone for strikes instead of balls this year. This could be explained by simple random variation – poor calls from umpires, extraordinarily good control from pitchers in McLouth’s PAs – or it could also be explained by a decline in McLouth’s ability to perceive the strike zone.
It’s too early to say for sure which is the actual cause. However, one thing is clear: in order for McLouth to right the ship, he’s simply going to have to start making contact with these third strikes. If he doesn’t, his early season struggles will continue, as he simply does not have the skills to be productive with the increased strikeout rates.
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Having watched him extensively this year, I’d say it’s a mixture of him being too passive at the plate and getting some unfortunate luck with umpire judgment calls.
Also, he’s now on his first significant hot streak of the season. Since hitting a game winner on May 14th, McLouth is batting .375/.444/1.111– but he’s still got 6 strikeouts in those 28 PAs.
Sorry, his OPS is 1.111, his SLG is .667
Just read on Yahoo (take it FWIW) that he’s working on shortening up his swing so his BA may come up but with a corresponding drop in HR…or continuation of his current HR %, I guess.
That’s a difference of about 12 “extra” strikeouts looking. That sample size doesn’t bother me, especially because most of the time, the correct decision on a borderline 3-2 or 2-2 pitch (say batter thinks 50% chance of being called a strike) is not to swing.
Just dropped Borbon to pick up McLouth. Hoping he stays hot…
Anecdotal, but, in my opinion he’s been called out on a lot of questionable pitches inside (and seemingly up) lately.
Pretty typical observation of Braves fans and players, that is, they like to whine all the time. They whine when they don’t get calls at the plate. They like it when their pitchers get the outside called strike, but if one of their guys gets called out on the same pitch its a questionable pitch.
Pretty typical of every non-Braves fan to make rampant generalizations like that.
Well, alright then. At least we know how Nax feels.
McClouth had vision problems in the offseason. II’d attribute much of the increase in KL% to that.
I’ve seen Nate K looking on pitches that haven’t touched the plate, borderline pitches, and definite strikes. But it seems like he and Heyward get called a lot on those close balls and borderline strikes. Heyward has adjusted his swing, Nate hasn’t, I would say Nate can keep doing what he’s doing now, cause eventually it evens out over the course of the season.
It could also be because he is not wearing his lucky pink backpack this year.
Hate McLouth.
Hate content-free posts.
Well, Cox sat Heyward in StL with the comment that he needed to stop taking so many strikes, especially early in the count, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s had the same talk with McLouth. As noted, he’s looked better at the plate lately, but then so has the rest of the team.
wunderschöne heran die herding den lismo ohne stimmen. ungshisch mir schma die kachtdu und ferung den hisch und rftisch den gahlkon mit berena.