The Braves have acquired Trevor Cahill and cash for their Josh Elander, a 24-year-old former catcher that was playing outfield in High-A Lynchburg for the second time last year. So mostly this transaction is about the Braves getting a cheap starter on the cheap. The quality of that incoming pitcher, and the fit on a rebuilding team — these are the things that are most debatable about the deal.

Read the rest of this entry »

For an explanation of this series, please read the introduction from Monday. All the posts in the series can be found here.

This post represents the final installment of our 2012 positional power rankings. This edition looks at bullpens.

A couple notes on these rankings. Because, over the course of a season, any number of pitchers will appear in relief for a given team, I’ve decided to concentrate on those pitchers who are most likely to receive high-leverage innings during the season. Additionally, note that a number of relief pitchers are also projected for starter’s innings. In those instances where this is the case, I’ve preserved the raw ZiPS rate projections (i.e. K/9, BB/9, HR/9), but adjusted both the innings and WAR projections, while attempting to represent the bump in performance that starters receive when moving to the bullpen.

In terms of criteria, these rankings are based both on the projected WAR of the relevant relievers and also each club’s relief depth. While the Rays, for example, don’t necessarily have the highest-end arms at the back of their bullpen, they have a wealth of slightly above-average ones.

Finally, please note that absolute precision is not the objective here — nor a possibility, really. Indeed, a reasonable argument could be made for moving most teams up or down a couple spots. Rather, the idea is to get a general sense of where each team is situated relative to the rest of the league.

Read the rest of this entry »

For an explanation of this series, please read the introduction from Monday. All the posts in the series can be found here.

This series was a lot of work, but it was also fun to go through each organization and look at some of the interesting projections that ZIPS has spit out for various starters. The projections listed below are a combination of rate stats projected by Dan Szymborski’s system combined with my estimation of innings pitched and then a calculation of WAR based on the combination of my quantity estimate and Dan’s projection of quality. These aren’t intended to be exact projections, which is why we’ve rounded to the nearest half win, but I think they’re probably going to fair pretty decently – I did do my best to ensure that the total IP and WAR projections lined up very closely with league totals from last year, and I tried to figure out the seven or eight most likely starters for each franchise – the depth chart information isn’t always crystal clear for every team, so I had to make some guesses, but I think the selections are reasonable in most cases.

There were definitely some surprises once I finished the calculations and sorted from top to bottom. If this a purely subjective exercise based on my opinion, some teams would move around a decent amount, but I’ve tried to make it clear where I think the ZIPS rate stats might be too high or too low on a specific group, or gave an explanation for the thinking behind the IP total. Besides the shocker in the top five, I’m pretty comfortable with most of these, and think they line up with general consensus pretty well. But, enough ramblings – on to the rankings.

Read the rest of this entry »

For an explanation of this series, please read the introduction from Monday. All the posts in the series can be found here.

This series was a lot of work, but it was also fun to go through each organization and look at some of the interesting projections that ZIPS has spit out for various starters. The projections listed below are a combination of rate stats projected by Dan Szymborski’s system combined with my estimation of innings pitched and then a calculation of WAR based on the combination of my quantity estimate and Dan’s projection of quality. These aren’t intended to be exact projections, which is why we’ve rounded to the nearest half win, but I think they’re probably going to fair pretty decently – I did do my best to ensure that the total IP and WAR projections lined up very closely with league totals from last year, and I tried to figure out the seven or eight most likely starters for each franchise – the depth chart information isn’t always crystal clear for every team, so I had to make some guesses, but I think the selections are reasonable in most cases.

There were definitely some surprises once I finished the calculations and sorted from top to bottom. If this a purely subjective exercise based on my opinion, some teams would move around a decent amount, but I’ve tried to make it clear where I think the ZIPS rate stats might be too high or too low on a specific group, or gave an explanation for the thinking behind the IP total. Besides the shocker in the top five, I’m pretty comfortable with most of these, and think they line up with general consensus pretty well.

Since we’re covering so many players and it just got incredibly long, we’ve split this post in two, with the second post set to run in a couple of hours. But, enough ramblings, on to the rankings.

Read the rest of this entry »

For an explanation of this series, please read Dave Cameron’s introduction from Monday. All the posts in the series can be found here.

Whether you believe that every team should have a designated hitter, or that no teams should have one, there is no denying that the DH is an interesting position. While it’s still a position of high-octane performance — as a position, DH’s .771 OPS was second-best in the American League, behind only first base — it is also the one that most resembles a carousel. Last season, teams started — on average — more than nine different DH’s. Seven teams — the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rangers, Rays, Twins, White Sox and Yankees — had more different starting DH’s than they did starting pitchers. If you’re scoring at home, that’s half the AL.

Read the rest of this entry »

For an explanation of this series, please read Dave Cameron’s introduction from Monday. All the posts in the series can be found here.

Left field has traditionally been a power of power for big league lineups, and for the past decade, it has also been a place for teams to hide poor defensive players. Think Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn, and Pat Burrell.

In 2011, however, that standard has begun to shift. The league-average wOBA for left fielders (.320 wOBA) was lower than both center field (.324) and right field (.334). Players such as Brett Gardner, Desmond Jennings, and Alex Presley project to start in left field for their respective teams. Those are not the traditional left field types that we grew accustomed to watching over the past ten or fifteen years, but as we will see, that does not mean the teams with those players rank near the bottom of the positional rankings.

Let’s take a look …

Read the rest of this entry »

For an explanation of this series, please read Dave Cameron’s introduction from Monday. All the posts in the series can be found here.

One thing jumped out at me as I pored over the depth charts of the 30 Major League Baseball teams in my research for this post: right field is a position of hope.

Sure, there are going to bad right fielders, as there are bad left fielders and bad second basemen and bad catchers. But as I looked at this year’s crop, it was difficult to find any teams in an unequivocally bad spot when it comes to right fielders. Even the teams which rank towards the bottom of the list have somebody who can either hit well enough or field well enough to be worth their while. Perhaps this should be expected given right field’s spot on the positional spectrum, but regardless, most fans should get some entertainment out of the position this season.

As a note, some liberties have been taken with respect to declaring the differences in reserve right fielders and reserve left fielders. Chances are if there’s a player you expected to see here who isn’t, he will show up in this afternoon’s post on left fielders.

Read the rest of this entry »

For an explanation of this series, please read Dave Cameron’s introduction from Monday. All the posts in the series can be found here.

Center field is a glamour position. Think Willie Mays. Mickey Mantle. Joe DiMaggio. Ken Griffey, Jr. For some teams in 2012, center field will feature strong, glamorous players. Think Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Phillies. For other teams in 2012, center field will feature not-quite-there and been-there-done-that guys. Think Astros, Indians, Blue Jays, and Nationals. The other teams feature players — or platoons– that fall somewhere on the lackluster-to-glamorous spectrum.

As my colleagues have noted in their positional power rankings, this is an art, not a science. We do our best with the information we have, to which we add our analysis and judgment. I have not projected anyone to have more than 600 plate appearances as a center fielder, even though a number of  players have seen 650-plus plate appearances for several seasons. Things happen. Injuries happen. It just made sense to me to be conservative, particularly with a position that requires a great deal of athleticism.

And now, on to the show.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s the introduction to the series from Dave Cameron, and here are some caveats: we’re doing our best to guesstimate, the WARs are approximate, there are tiers here that we will try to identify, and the season is a souffle that might rise or might not for any particular team. And yet, the result of all this might be a decent understanding of how the teams stand in comparison to the rest of the league at each position. Surely, at the very least, it will spawn some discussion.

Perhaps we should rethink the defensive spectrum! Perhaps third base is the hardest position! Last year, third baseman had a .707 OPS — worsted only by catchers… and still shortstops. But the .252/.317/.390 collective batting line at the hot corner was just barely better than the shortstops with their .263/.317/.380 ways. That’s not usual.

Still, the decline of the third base position may just have been temporary. There’s a new infusion of youth on the way, and there’s also a fair chance that some veterans bounce back and make the position look more palatable. And don’t forget a couple key position switches coming our way this year — the inclusion of these new offensive third basemen will boost the offensive numbers, and their bad defense may hurt less than it might seem.

Could this year represent a renaissance at the position?

Read the rest of this entry »