Positional Power Rankings: Starting Pitchers, 1-15

For an explanation of this series, please read the introduction from Monday. All the posts in the series can be found here.

This series was a lot of work, but it was also fun to go through each organization and look at some of the interesting projections that ZIPS has spit out for various starters. The projections listed below are a combination of rate stats projected by Dan Szymborski’s system combined with my estimation of innings pitched and then a calculation of WAR based on the combination of my quantity estimate and Dan’s projection of quality. These aren’t intended to be exact projections, which is why we’ve rounded to the nearest half win, but I think they’re probably going to fair pretty decently – I did do my best to ensure that the total IP and WAR projections lined up very closely with league totals from last year, and I tried to figure out the seven or eight most likely starters for each franchise – the depth chart information isn’t always crystal clear for every team, so I had to make some guesses, but I think the selections are reasonable in most cases.

There were definitely some surprises once I finished the calculations and sorted from top to bottom. If this a purely subjective exercise based on my opinion, some teams would move around a decent amount, but I’ve tried to make it clear where I think the ZIPS rate stats might be too high or too low on a specific group, or gave an explanation for the thinking behind the IP total. Besides the shocker in the top five, I’m pretty comfortable with most of these, and think they line up with general consensus pretty well. But, enough ramblings – on to the rankings.

15. Seattle Mariners

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Felix Hernandez	SEA	235.0	2.5	8.6	0.7	6.0
Jason Vargas	SEA	170.0	2.7	5.7	1.0	2.0
Hector Noesi	SEA	150.0	2.8	6.2	1.0	2.0
Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	140.0	1.9	7.0	1.1	1.5
Blake Beavan	SEA	100.0	1.7	4.2	1.0	1.0
Kevin Millwood	SEA	100.0	3.2	5.8	1.2	0.5
Charlie Furbush	SEA	50.0	3.5	6.6	1.5	–

This is basically what you get when you have one of the very best pitchers in the game and then a collection of guys behind him that aren’t too awful. There’s nothing overly sexy about the pitch-to-contact guys that fill in the #2-#5 spots in the rotation, but they all throw enough strikes to be useful and Safeco helps keep them from being too home run prone. Even taking park factors into account, this rotation should be about average, though an injury to Felix would be devastating to the franchise.

14. St. Louis Cardinals

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Chris Carpenter	STL	190.0	2.2	6.7	0.7	3.5
Jaime Garcia	STL	180.0	2.7	7.3	0.7	3.0
Adam Wainwright	STL	160.0	2.5	8.0	0.7	3.5
Kyle Lohse	STL	150.0	2.6	5.4	0.9	1.5
Jake Westbrook	STL	150.0	3.4	5.4	0.9	1.0
Shelby Miller	STL	75.0	4.6	8.6	0.7	1.0

The same thing we just said about Washington applies here too – I could very well be low on the IP totals for Wainwright on Miller here, and shifting innings to those two would help the Cardinals quite a bit. The question for St. Louis is how they’ll manage the workloads for those two during the regular season while also trying to set themselves up for another playoff run. Are they willing to push those guys all year and then also ask them to pitch deep into October? Or will they need to skip some starts during the regular season in order to keep them available for postseason baseball? There are a lot of hard to predict variables here, and depending on how you think things could shake out, they could easily be higher than this by year’s end.

13. Florida Marlins

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Mark Buehrle	FLO	200.0	2.0	5.1	0.8	2.5
Anibal Sanchez	FLO	180.0	3.3	8.2	0.8	3.0
Ricky Nolasco	FLO	180.0	2.0	7.5	1.0	3.0
Carlos Zambrano	FLO	150.0	4.2	7.5	0.9	1.5
Josh Johnson	FLO	130.0	2.4	8.6	0.5	3.5
Wade LeBlanc	FLO	50.0	3.0	6.8	1.1	0.5
Brad Hand	FLO	50.0	5.7	5.9	1.4	(0.5)

I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but just replace Strasburg/Wainwright with Josh Johnson and you have the Marlins situation. If he throws 200 innings, this rotation is amazing. If he throws 100, well, the replacements aren’t very good. And, before you object to this placement considering that Buehrle’s been beating his FIP for yeras, remember that this team also has Ricky Nolasco, so those two basically cancel out.

12. Boston Red Sox

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Jon Lester	BOS	200.0	3.6	9.0	0.8	4.5
Josh Beckett	BOS	150.0	2.7	7.8	1.1	2.5
Clay Buchholz	BOS	140.0	3.4	6.4	0.8	2.0
Daniel Bard	BOS	120.0	3.3	9.5	0.8	2.0
Aaron Cook	BOS	100.0	3.2	4.3	0.9	1.0
Alfredo Aceves	BOS	75.0	3.6	5.9	0.8	1.0
Andrew Miller	BOS	75.0	6.4	6.0	1.0	–
Daisuke Matsuzaka	BOS	50.0	4.5	7.4	0.9	0.5

Boston’s one of three teams (also CHW and TEX) where I manually adjusted a pitcher’s projection to account for a bullpen transition. It’s possible that I’m underselling Daniel Bard here, as others have made successful conversions into the rotation in recent years, but I’m not comfortable going forward with a projection built off bullpen performance. If he’s good, though, that’s a big boost for the Red Sox, who could then have an elite rotation. If he’s bad, their pile of depth isn’t very impressive, and the back-end of their rotation could be highly problematic.

11. Minnesota Twins

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Scott Baker	MIN	180.0	2.2	7.7	1.1	3.5
Carl Pavano	MIN	170.0	1.7	4.9	1.1	2.5
Nick Blackburn	MIN	150.0	2.7	4.5	1.2	1.0
Francisco Liriano	MIN	140.0	4.0	8.3	0.8	2.5
Brian Duensing	MIN	140.0	2.9	5.7	1.0	2.0
Jason Marquis	MIN	115.0	2.0	5.2	1.2	1.5
Liam Hendriks	MIN	60.0	2.0	5.3	0.7	1.0

Meet the northern version of Tom Milone – ZIPS is in love with Liam Hendriks. In fact, a large part of this positive ranking of the Twins rotation is due to the strong work they’re expected to get from their #4 and #5 starters, and the crazy good projection for Hendriks is a big part of that. On a per-innings basis, it actually thinks he could be Scott Baker’s equal, and one of the better starters in the American League. I’ll say the same thing here that I said about Milone in the Oakland write-up – take the under. There’s not a ton of upside here, but there’s also not a lot of suck, so the Twins rotation is pretty likely to finish in the middle of the pack.

10. Los Angeles Dodgers

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	225.0	2.5	9.6	0.6	6.0
Chad Billingsley	LAD	180.0	3.7	7.8	0.7	3.0
Ted Lilly	LAD	160.0	2.2	7.4	1.3	1.5
Chris Capuano	LAD	160.0	2.4	7.4	1.2	1.5
Aaron Harang	LAD	140.0	2.7	6.5	1.1	1.0
John Ely	LAD	50.0	3.2	6.0	1.0	0.5
Nathan Eovaldi	LAD	50.0	4.7	6.3	0.7	0.5

Ladies and Gentleman, Clayton Kerhsaw. He accounts for 40% of the rotation’s projected WAR by himself, and shows the value of having a legitimate ace at the helm. Billingsley is probably still a bit underrated, and gives the team a solid tandem up front, but then they get into the low velocity guys and things get worse in a hurry. I like Capuano and Lilly’s okay, but Harang is pretty meh and Eovaldi can only replace one of them.

9. Chicago White Sox

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Gavin Floyd	CHA	190.0	2.4	7.2	1.0	4.0
John Danks	CHA	190.0	2.8	7.0	1.1	3.0
Philip Humber	CHA	170.0	2.4	5.7	1.2	2.0
Chris Sale	CHA	150.0	4.4	9.6	1.1	2.0
Jake Peavy	CHA	120.0	2.3	7.7	1.0	2.5
Zach Stewart	CHA	100.0	3.8	5.4	1.2	0.5

The White Sox #4 and #5 starters can stack up with anyone in the game, as they have five guys who project as league average or better. They simply lack a real ace, as Danks and Floyd are more good than great, so they lose some ground to the better rotations when comparing the top-end starters. Still, this is a good group of arms, especially if they can figure out how to keep Peavy healthy.

8. San Francisco Giants

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Tim Lincecum	SF	215.0	3.2	9.5	0.6	5.0
Matt Cain	SF	210.0	2.6	7.2	0.7	4.0
Madison Bumgarner	SF	180.0	2.2	7.4	0.7	3.5
Ryan Vogelsong	SF	140.0	3.5	7.0	1.0	1.0
Barry Zito	SF	120.0	3.8	6.7	1.1	0.5
Eric Surkamp	SF	75.0	3.7	7.3	0.7	1.0

The opposite of the White Sox, their top three stack up with any in the game, but it gets pretty ugly at the back end. ZIPS isn’t buying into Vogelsong’s revival, and you don’t need a fancy projection system to know that Barry Zito is bad. Eric Zurkamp is another soft-tosser that ZIPS likes more than scouts, and another guy where I’ll suggest that betting the under on the projection is a good idea. Still, Lincecum/Cain/Bumgarner make for an excellent trio, and should carry the Giants to run prevention success even if they have inferior teammates.

7. New York Yankees

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
CC Sabathia	NYA	220.0	2.6	7.8	0.8	5.5
Michael Pineda	NYA	180.0	2.9	8.1	1.1	3.5
Ivan Nova	NYA	180.0	3.0	5.6	1.0	2.0
Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	170.0	2.3	6.4	1.3	2.0
Freddy Garcia	NYA	100.0	2.8	5.3	1.2	1.0
Phil Hughes	NYA	100.0	3.2	7.0	1.4	1.0

Pineda gives the Yankees another projected All-Star caliber starter to pair with Sabathia, and then they have four guys behind those two who all project to be about league average or so. That depth provides them with insurance in case of injury or unexpected struggles, and should prevent any blow-ups from sinking their chances at contention. That said, they need Pineda to be good, because the non-CC options are all more likely to be solid, and don’t project as guys you want to give two playoff starts to if you don’t have to.

6. Texas Rangers

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Yu Darvish	TEX	180.0	2.1	7.8	0.8	4.0
Matt Harrison	TEX	180.0	3.0	5.9	0.8	3.0
Derek Holland	TEX	180.0	3.2	7.3	1.0	3.0
Colby Lewis	TEX	180.0	2.8	7.9	1.3	2.5
Neftali Feliz	TEX	130.0	3.4	7.6	0.8	2.0
Alexi Ogando	TEX	75.0	3.0	7.3	0.9	1.5
Scott Feldman	TEX	50.0	2.8	5.2	1.1	0.5

While some projection systems are proposing marriage to Yu Darvish, ZIPS sees him as more All-Star than Ace. Either that, or it ran out of irrational affection after Milone and Hendriks. So, Texas might not have the true frontline workhorse that headlines other rotations, but what they have is a ridiculous amount of depth. With Harrison, Holland, Lewis, Feliz, and Ogando, they’d have one of the game’s best rotations even without Darvish. Add him to the mix, and account for the usefulness of having a guy like Feldman around, and the Rangers shouldn’t have any problems finding a quality arm to take the hill each day in 2012.

5. Cleveland Indians

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Justin Masterson	CLE	200.0	2.9	6.7	0.6	5.0
Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	190.0	3.6	8.6	0.6	4.5
Derek Lowe	CLE	160.0	2.7	5.7	0.9	2.5
Kevin Slowey	CLE	140.0	1.5	6.2	1.3	2.0
Josh Tomlin	CLE	140.0	2.2	5.1	1.3	1.5
Zach McAllister	CLE	50.0	2.6	5.3	1.0	0.5
Fausto Carmona	CLE	50.0	3.2	5.4	1.1	0.5

Wait, what? The Indians? The CLEVELAND Indians?

When I saw them at #5 after running the calculations, I was convinced there was an error in the ratings. I triple checked them. There isn’t. ZIPS loves the Indians rotation. It sees both Masterson and Jimenez as legitimate front-line starters, and then is wooed again by the soft-tossing strike throwers mold – this time, it’s Kevin Slowey and Josh Tomlin getting love for throwing 88 and over the plate. Toss in a still-useful Derek Lowe, and ZIPs seems a strong, deep rotation with two really good horses up front. I’ll take the under, personally, but there’s some validity to the reasoning, and the Indians rotation is probably underrated. Just maybe not this underrated.

4. Detroit Tigers

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Justin Verlander	DET	225.0	2.3	9.2	0.8	6.5
Doug Fister	DET	190.0	1.6	5.1	0.8	4.0
Max Scherzer	DET	190.0	2.9	8.3	1.1	3.5
Rick Porcello	DET	180.0	2.5	5.2	0.9	2.5
Jacob Turner	DET	100.0	3.1	5.2	1.0	1.0
Andrew Oliver	DET	75.0	5.1	6.1	1.3	–

Talk about an interesting social experiment – what happens when you put a fantastic rotation in front of an ungodly defense? We’re about to find out, because Detroit has a really good collection of arms and will be supporting them with the worst defense we’ve seen in a long time. Verlander gets so many strikeouts that it probably won’t kill him, but it will be interesting to see if Fister and Porcello can live up to these projections given what they’ll be working with. The lack of an established fifth starter is seemingly a problem, but ZIPS likes both Turner and Oliver, and the Tigers can skip the #5 spot in order to minimize the issue.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
James Shields	TB	210.0	2.3	7.7	1.1	4.0
David Price	TB	200.0	3.1	8.3	0.9	4.5
Matt Moore	TB	160.0	4.3	9.3	0.9	3.0
Jeremy Hellickson	TB	150.0	3.4	6.7	0.9	2.5
Jeff Niemann	TB	130.0	2.8	6.6	1.1	2.0
Wade Davis	TB	100.0	3.3	5.9	1.1	1.0
Alex Cobb	TB	50.0	3.1	6.7	0.8	1.0

The Rays depth of quality hurlers is well documented – they’re basically Texas, just with better pitchers at the very front end. Price and Shields are both excellent, and there’s not a lot of falloff between #3 and #7 on the depth chart. Moore is the wild card here, as ZIPS isn’t as high on him as you might think after his late season dominance. If he’s great rather than good, than this might be the best rotation in the game. That they’re #3 without him needing to be dominant shows how scary this group is.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Roy Halladay	PHI	220.0	1.4	8.0	0.7	5.5
Cliff Lee	PHI	210.0	1.5	8.6	0.7	5.5
Cole Hamels	PHI	200.0	2.1	8.5	1.0	3.5
Vance Worley	PHI	150.0	3.1	7.3	0.9	2.0
Joe Blanton	PHI	100.0	2.3	7.1	1.3	1.0
Joel Pineiro	PHI	50.0	2.1	4.8	0.9	0.5
Kyle Kendrick	PHI	50.0	2.6	4.4	1.1	–

The only surprise is that they’re not #1, but don’t blame The Big Three, who are better by themselves than half of the rotations in the game. The issue is at #5, where the team got a really nice performance from Worley last year, but is now going to have to piece together the last spot in the rotation with some combination of Blanton, Pineiro, and Kendrick. Losing Oswalt is going to hurt them, especially if Worley takes a step backwards. But, even with those issues, they’re still the second best rotation in the game, and the clear winner of best rotation in the National League.

1. Los Angeles Angels

Player	TM	IP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WAR
Jered Weaver	LAA	215.0	2.3	8.1	0.9	5.5
Dan Haren	LAA	215.0	1.6	7.4	1.0	5.0
C.J. Wilson	LAA	200.0	3.4	8.0	0.6	5.0
Ervin Santana	LAA	190.0	2.8	6.9	1.2	2.5
Jerome Williams	LAA	75.0	2.6	5.6	1.3	0.5
Brad Mills	LAA	50.0	3.5	6.5	1.3	0.5
Garrett Richards	LAA	25.0	3.8	5.2	1.2	–

Take the fourth best rotation in baseball from last year, add C.J. Wilson, and this is what you get – a true tour de force of starting pitchers. Weaver, Haren, and Wilson are all #1 starters on most teams, and Santana’s a pretty spectacular #4 starter. They’re not going to get much from their #5 starter, but their first four are just so good that it won’t matter too much. There’s a reason everyone’s on the Angels bandwagon this year, and while that Pujols guy has something to do with, so does this ridiculous rotation they’ve assembled.