Archive for Daily Graphings

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 2/17/16

12:02
Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s chat. Spring Training kinda sorta starts today, so we’re getting closer to actual baseball.

12:02
Out of my way, Gyorkass!: Of the two NLC 2016 bottom feeders, who returns to relevance first?

12:02
Dave Cameron: The Brewers. Stearns has done a fantastic job of adding talent to te organization this winter, and they still have a pretty big trade chip left in Lucroy.

12:02
Out of my way, Gyorkass!: Davis for Nottingham/Derby…perfectly cromulent trade for both sides, or did one get the better of the other?

12:04
Dave Cameron: Like it more for the Brewers. The A’s offseason plan has seemed to be to stockpile 1-2 WAR players, which is a good enough plan if you already have the stars to carry you, but the A’s don’t, really. So I’m not sure they’re in a position to take advantage of Davis’ short-term value.

12:05
Salicylic : What’s up with the pessimistic projections of the royals AGAIN

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Job Postings Word Cloud

Over the past year, we have posted 32 different job postings from 20 different Major League Baseball teams and 15 job postings from TrackMan, Baseball Information Solutions, Inside Edge, STATS Inc, TruMedia, Wasserman Media Group and the Sydney Blue Sox. At Paul Swydan’s suggestion, I created word clouds to summarize these postings. These give a quick overview of what those jobs entail and the required qualifications. For those not familiar with the research and data science side of baseball, I’ll explain a few of the software tools which are prominent in the job postings and can be found in the word cloud.

To make the word cloud, I collected all the pieces we’ve published since January 2015 that contained “Job Posting” in the title. I separated the text content of each post into two different categories: job description and qualifications. From there, I took those two documents into R and used the tm package to clean the text, removing punctuation and unnecessary words like articles and prepositions. The package also tabulated the words. Additionally, I removed some other words like baseball, experience and strong. These words occurred frequently in the posts, but they were either obvious or not helpful. Then with the processed text data, I constructed the graphic using the aptly named wordcloud package. If you are unfamiliar with word clouds, larger words indicate that the specific word was found more often in the job postings.

Job Posting Descriptions

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Waiting On the Next Zach Britton

Two years back, after Zach Britton emerged as an effective closer for the Orioles, he drew a lot of attention for his sinker. At the time, I used PITCHf/x information to try to find some similar sinkers. For the most part it was a forgettable post — most of these are forgettable posts — but there was one thing that stuck with me. One name I haven’t been able to wipe from my mind.

It’s even more interesting now, with Britton having graduated into the class of the elites. You might not yet recognize Britton as an elite reliever, but he for sure most recently was an elite reliever, again driven almost exclusively by his fastball, which he threw 90% of the time. Compared to the year before, Britton generated way more strikeouts. Compared to the year before, Britton trimmed his number of walks. And compared to the year before, Britton somehow increased his grounder rate, which was already absurd.

You look at what Britton did, and you see that he did it mostly with one pitch, and you realize, hey, that’s one hell of a pitch. Wouldn’t you be interested in knowing there’s someone out there who throws an almost identical pitch? It’s time to get to know Blake Treinen. Blake Treinen pitches for the Nationals, and Blake Treinen throws the Zach Britton sinker.

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Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: Houston Astros

EVALUATING THE PROSPECTS 2016
Angels
Astros
Athletics
Blue Jays
Braves
Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants
Indians
Mariners
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees

The Astros vaulted themselves into the playoff hunt on the backs of their young talent and smart free agent buys. Now that many of those players will be staying with the major league club, you might expect the system to be relatively barren. In fact, however, it is littered with mid- to upper-range prospects that could help as soon as this year. Though Houston has decent quality and quantity of prospects, the most interesting thing about this system is how much turnover it has seen since last offseason. Only five of the top-15 prospects from Kiley’s list last year remain eligible for this year’s list, the rest gone via trade or promotion.

One of the joys of scouting Astros prospects is the run environments of their High-A and Triple-A affiliates. Many of the top prospects in the system – AJ Reed, Derek Fisher, JD Davis, Francis Martes, etc. – spent all or or part of their 2015 seasons in High-A Lancaster, quite possibly the most hitter-friendly park in the country. That fact makes it a fun task to figure out whose skills have improved versus whose have been artificially elevated by an extreme run environment. For many of them, evaluators almost have to ignore their High-A production and wait to see them in Double-A. I have to admit, Fisher fits into that category for me somewhat. It also makes Martes’ stat line look even more impressive.

For these rankings, there aren’t too many eye-opening choices for the upper spots on the list. I have AJ Reed in the number-one spot, believing his offensive ability to be strong enough to make him a more productive big-league player despite his defensive position. Besides Tyler White and Jon Kemmer jumping up this list for their potential at the plate, there’s Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher sliding down just outside of the 50+ FV group. I don’t feel completely confident in my evaluation of Fisher yet, and Tucker is too young and raw for me to be comfortable ranking him ahead of the others above him.

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The Cleanup Hitter That Oakland Stole

This time of year, everyone’s a contender. So everyone’s talking about the things they can do in 2016, and the A’s are no different, highlighting their improved bullpen and increased power. Just last week they picked up Khris Davis, and when I was reading about that move, team officials noted that Davis will provide critical right-handed pop, along with Danny Valencia. Just from reading that sentence, you know two things: (1) the A’s won’t be anyone’s AL West favorites, and (2) Valencia has won himself some organizational fans.

It’s not as if Valencia has been hurting for chances, as teams have long recognized his ability to punish left-handed pitchers who dare enter the strike zone. Valencia has been treated as one of those useful players good enough to have but not good enough to keep. He debuted in 2010, and Oakland is his sixth major-league team, having been claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays in August. The Blue Jays had themselves a roster crunch, and they weren’t buying the initial evidence that Valencia had made himself more whole. You can understand why Toronto wound up doing what they did, but Oakland seized the opportunity and now they seem to have themselves an asset. The A’s could afford to see how real Valencia really was. All he did was conquer his biggest problem.

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2015 Positional Ball-in-Play Retrospective – 2B

As we count down the days until spring-training games begin, let’s continue to take a position-by-position look back at the ball-in-play (BIP) profiles of 2015 semi-regulars and regulars to see if we can find any clues as to their projected performance moving forward. Last time, we reviewed first basemen and designated hitters; today, let’s take a look at second basemen.

First, some ground rules. To come up with an overall player population roughly equal to one player per team per position, the minimum number of batted balls with Statcast readings was set at 164. Players were listed at the position at which they played the most games. There is more than one player per team at some positions and less at others, like catcher and DH. Players are listed in descending OPS+ order. Without further ado, let’s kick it off with AL second sackers.

BIP Overview – AL Second Basemen
Name Avg MPH FB/LD MPH GB MPH POP% FLY% LD% GB% CON K% BB% OPS+ Pull% Cent% Opp%
Forsythe 89.22 92.10 87.23 3.2% 37.4% 19.8% 39.6% 115 18.0% 8.9% 123 39.1% 36.3% 24.6%
Altuve 86.29 90.26 83.92 3.0% 32.2% 18.1% 46.7% 104 9.7% 4.8% 122 45.3% 35.5% 19.1%
Kipnis 89.88 92.58 87.37 1.9% 26.2% 26.8% 45.0% 119 16.7% 8.9% 121 35.3% 36.1% 28.6%
Zobrist 89.05 92.22 86.89 3.6% 28.8% 18.6% 49.0% 93 10.5% 11.6% 120 45.7% 31.7% 22.6%
Cano 90.88 94.74 88.06 1.1% 24.2% 24.2% 50.5% 110 15.9% 6.4% 118 36.3% 41.1% 22.7%
Kinsler 86.38 88.29 84.69 5.2% 35.5% 25.4% 33.9% 98 11.9% 6.4% 113 41.9% 34.1% 24.0%
Pedroia 88.47 91.77 86.27 4.5% 27.3% 17.7% 50.5% 100 12.0% 8.9% 113 40.1% 38.6% 21.3%
Schoop 90.79 94.36 88.89 5.3% 32.4% 19.3% 43.0% 142 24.6% 2.8% 110 43.2% 31.0% 25.8%
Odor 88.44 92.93 86.35 7.6% 32.1% 14.6% 45.8% 105 16.8% 4.9% 107 46.9% 31.6% 21.5%
Dozier 87.51 92.32 80.34 8.7% 35.4% 22.6% 33.3% 104 21.0% 8.7% 101 60.2% 24.2% 15.6%
Holt 86.65 88.85 85.46 1.1% 22.4% 23.8% 52.7% 100 19.1% 9.0% 96 33.4% 40.1% 26.5%
Giavotella 85.62 87.87 83.78 3.0% 27.5% 23.7% 45.8% 75 11.8% 6.4% 96 36.7% 38.6% 24.7%
Goins 87.36 89.16 86.62 3.1% 24.8% 18.0% 54.1% 81 19.4% 9.1% 86 34.1% 36.4% 29.5%
Drew 86.53 88.56 84.51 6.1% 40.5% 15.7% 37.7% 66 16.6% 8.6% 78 47.0% 33.2% 19.8%
Sanchez 86.07 89.15 84.31 2.0% 21.1% 22.8% 54.1% 67 19.3% 4.5% 66 30.8% 36.5% 32.7%
Sogard 84.52 86.71 84.17 3.1% 30.5% 22.0% 44.3% 60 12.5% 5.7% 66 35.6% 39.9% 24.5%
Infante 84.41 86.88 83.75 3.8% 33.9% 21.0% 41.2% 57 15.2% 2.0% 49 43.5% 34.5% 22.0%
AVG 87.53 90.51 85.45 3.9% 30.1% 20.8% 45.1% 94 15.9% 6.9% 99 40.9% 35.3% 23.9%

Most of the column headers are self explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, and BIP by field sector (pull, central, opposite). Each player’s OPS and Unadjusted Contact Score (CON) is also listed. For those of you who have not read my articles on the topic, Contact Score is derived by removing Ks and BBs from hitters’ batting lines, assigning run values to all other events, and comparing them to a league average of 100.

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A Report on the Amateur Origins of Baseball’s Top-40 Players

Like many of this site’s readers, the author of this post has occasionally entertained a fantasy in which he’s tasked — as the general manager of a major-league club — with constructing a championship roster. As with many fantasies, this one is burdened by awful, dumb reality: apart from an impressive combination of talent and experience, the position of general manager also requires one to work “all the time” or at least “nearly all the time.” For those among us who have already allocated a portion of the day to assuming the fetal position and weeping gently, that sort of obligation is untenable. As assorted industry contacts have confirmed for me, employment in a front office allows almost zero time for reflection on the horror of merely existing.

Still, this doesn’t prevent one from contemplating how one would conduct the affairs of a club were he given the opportunity. This post is designed to do that, briefly.

This post is also built on a reasonable assumption — namely that, among the general manager’s most important duties (and the scouting director’s and team president’s) is the acquisition of amateur talent. With few exceptions, organizations exercise great control over players whom they procure by means either of the draft or international free agency. In addition to owning the rights to such players for years in the minors, clubs are then entitled to six or seven years of player control in the majors. One can (and maybe should) debate the merits of the system; however, that debate lies outside the scope of this very modest report. What’s relevant here is the fact that it exists.

Even if a club doesn’t have space for a talented player on its 25-man roster, this doesn’t render that player’s value moot. The Detroit Tigers, for example, have maintained a strong major-league club for much of the last decade in part by exchanging young, cost-controlled prospects for more expensive, more proven major leaguers. While the Tigers have frequently placed among the bottom third of farm-rankings lists, this isn’t to say that the organization hasn’t reaped the benefits of its amateur scouting department. Rather, they’ve attempted to leverage those benefits in a different way — by exchanging future for present value.

What’s the best place to find such players, though? That’s the question a GM et al. must answer — and the more accurate the answer, the better situated a club to win.

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How the Brewers Rebuilt Their Way Into KATOH’s Heart

Yesterday, I utilized my KATOH projection system to rank the 30 farm systems. By my math, the Milwaukee Brewers are the top dog. And it isn’t particularly close. Here’s a graphical representation of each team’s cumulative projected WAR according to KATOH.

KATOH Farm

The Brewers farm system outpaces everyone else’s by a fairly wide margin by this metric. That’s interesting in and of itself. But the path David Stearns and company have taken to put their farm system in this position is perhaps even more interesting.

For one, they’ve acquired a large chunk of their minor league talent in the very recent past. Orlando Arcia, their consensus top prospect, has been around for a few years; but many of the others are very new additions. In fact, KATOH’s #2 through #8 prospects all joined the organization within the past seven months. That’s Ramon Flores, Jacob Nottingham, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, Isan Diaz, Zach Davies and Javier Betancourt. Domingo Santana would fall in that group as well were he still prospect eligible. They’ve also added Rymer Liriano, Keon Broxton, Garin Cecchini, Jonathan Villar, Adrian HouserBubby Derby (who I’m still not convinced is a real person) over that same period. Not to mention lower-tier prospects Freddy Peralta, Trey Supak, Colin Walsh, Zack Jones, Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki and Manny Pina.

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Khris Davis Has Four Assists

Khris Davis has four career outfield assists. Have you ever been curious about how he got them? Of course you haven’t. You’re a grown person, with responsibilities. A person trying to answer the big questions, a person who reads books, a person wondering what a gravitational wave is. This has never really crossed your mind, but, now you’re here. Now you’re curious. This is obviously a setup and human nature will force you to see this all the way through. You’re not as in control of you as you think.

Davis is relevant right now because he was just traded. He debuted in 2013 and, since then, on a rate basis, he ranks fifth-worst among outfielders in the DRS version of the arm-value statistic. He ranks seventh-worst in the UZR version of the arm-value statistic. According to the Fan Scouting Report, he ranks fifth-worst in release. He ranks fourth-worst by arm strength, and he ranks eighth-worst by arm accuracy, and if you put all three components together, he ranks second-worst by arm overall. Khris Davis has a bad arm. It’s been that way for as long as you’ve known about him. We don’t get to say this kind of thing very often, but there might genuinely be some of you capable of out-throwing Khris Davis, who is a major-league baseball player.

And he’s a player with four assists. Bad arm, four assists. Which means he’s been involved in throwing people out. Time to walk through the assists, like we did with Ben Revere back whenever that was. For some reason, in this moment, it’s important to know what’s happened.

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Last Year’s Defensive Zeroes

Not long ago, we made available the results of the 2015 Fan Scouting Report. August already made use of them last week, and everything is right up there for your easy perusal. The measure obviously isn’t without its flaws, but no defensive measure is without its flaws, and as you’ve probably come to understand by how often I poll the FanGraphs community, I love to see what you people think about things. Even when the public might be wrong, there’s the opportunity to learn from its perception. The Fan Scouting Report is all about perceptions.

If you don’t know quite how it works, people submit ballots, evaluating player defense based on seven categories: instincts, first step, speed, hands, release, arm strength, and arm accuracy. Everything gets combined into an overall rating, and last year’s top rating was a four-way tie between Jackie Bradley Jr., Brandon Crawford, Jason Heyward, and Andrelton Simmons. According to the fans, those were the best defenders in the game, and each of them is recognized as being outstanding. This is one fun way to sort the leaderboards — see who the fans think was awesome, either overall, or within a particular category.

You can also do the opposite of that. Every leaderboard that has a top has a bottom.

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