Archive for Daily Graphings

The Understated Greatness of Tim Hudson

For all of the natural ebbs and flows of individual player performance from year to year, the game’s ruling class – the elite among the elite, the upper crust – is a fairly closed society that remains fairly static from year to year. Any given year might have its Yasiel Puig joining that group, or its Albert Pujols conceding his seat, but the core membership is fairly predictable. What might happen in any given season, however, is one of these elite players taking a temporary step up in class, reaching an even more rarified air than ever before. Let’s continue to take a deeper look at the 2014 performance of some of the game’s elite, and determine whether they in fact have taken things to the next level. Today, Tim Hudson.

Your first thought might be, Tim Hudson – elite? A brief perusal of his career numbers might be in order. Does 212-114, 3.41, career ERA+ of 124 grab you? His 2013 season (8-7, 3.97) might not look so hot on the surface, but his FIP was over a half-run lower, and his cumulative record in his three previous seasons with the Braves was 49-26. Wins and losses are obviously far from the only or preferred way to evaluate a starting pitcher, but Hudson sure has had a knack for winning – and not losing – throughout his career. 16 years in the big leagues, 11 times as an ERA qualifier, and he has reached double digits in losses exactly three times, and has a career high loss total of 12. He’s played on a lot of good teams, true, but he has played a large role in making those teams good.

Hudson was a 6th round draft pick out of Auburn in 1997, and was just as well known for his bat as his arm as an amateur. John Poloni, who was unfairly negatively singled out in the “Moneyball” book, believed in him as a pitcher and pushed hard for his selection. Depending on how things play out following Hudson’s career, Poloni just might be responsible for signing a Hall of Famer for a relative pittance.

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The Value of Alex Gordon Not Using His Arm

There aren’t many plays quite like the challenging of an outfielder’s arm. If you think about it, hitters don’t really have a choice, when they’re in the box. Runners don’t really have a choice, when a ball’s hit to an infielder. But when the ball goes to an outfielder, runners can opt in to an arm test, wherein they attempt to beat the ball to a bag. It’s a challenge of arm against legs, and when the arm emerges victorious, it can make for some memorable moments. Just this past weekend, Marcell Ozuna went crazy in consecutive innings. Less recently but more memorably, the Angels made the mistake of challenging Yoenis Cespedes. Outfielders with the best arms tend to be outfielders who rack up the most kills.

Alex Gordon‘s always had a great arm. Alex Gordon’s always piled up the kills. Between 2011 – 2013, Gordon led all outfielders in UZR’s arm rating. He led all outfielders in DRS’ arm rating. He led all outfielders in assists, with 54. The next-best was Jeff Francoeur’s 40. Gordon was drafted as a third baseman but he’s become an all-around star in left field. This season, Gordon has just five outfield assists, almost halfway through. The last three years, he’s finished with 20, 17, and 17. This season, Gordon’s also on pace for career-best arm ratings. Alex Gordon is showing the value of having a gun you seldom use.

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Carlos Gomez’s Symbolic Pursuit

Way back at the beginning of May, the Diamondbacks were preparing to play the Brewers, and Kirk Gibson warned his pitchers about Carlos Gomez. He tipped them off about his aggressive tendencies, making clear that the pitchers would need to be careful. On Monday, May 5, Arizona got out to a 1-0 lead in the top of the first. In the bottom of the first, Mike Bolsinger started with a cutter, and Gomez swung, and the score was 1-1. One pitch, one swing, one dinger. It was exactly what Gibson warned against, and it’s just one of those things that Gomez does.

Said Gibson:

“We didn’t execute pitches from the first pitch of the game,” Gibson said. “I talked to you guys about Gomez. He’s a first-pitch fastball hitter and we threw one there and hit he it out of the park.”

Admitted Bolsinger:

“I knew he was a first-pitch guy, but I didn’t know he’d swing like that on the first pitch of the game,” he said. “I thought I could (sneak it by him), but I guess I didn’t.”

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FG on Fox: The Coors Field Effect on Justin Morneau

Justin Morneau is off to a great start this year; of course, this is also his first year playing for the Rockies. Most people enjoy playing half their games in a park that greatly inflates offense like Coors Field. Even when you look at a park-adjusted metric such as wRC+, though, you’ll notice that his production on the road has been equal to that of his production in Colorado. How did hitting in Coors Field make him a better hitter on the road?

Morneau has a nice .326/.357/.550 slash line at home. Once you correct for his generous home park, that’s 21 percent better than league average. His .279/.319/.488 road average doesn’t look that great, but when compared to the rest of the National League, it’s just as valuable as his home slash line (120 wRC+). His home park still has something to do with that road work, though.

It might be more that Coors Field has freed him of the shackles that Target Field in Minnesota put on him. “I think I let the park play into my approach a little bit too much the last couple of years,” Morneau admitted before a game with the Giants in mid-June. “I thought I had avoided it, but I wasn’t as comfortable using the whole field… most good hitters use the whole field.”

He’s right about good hitters, but we’ll add a caveat — using the whole field with power is important. In order to remove the slap hitters like Adeiny Hechavarria and Jarrod Dyson from the top of the list, we’ll make league-average power a prerequisite for making this list of spray hitters. Let’s sort the list by the percentage of outfield balls in play that go to the center or opposite fields. The league averages a .145 Isolated Slugging Percentage (slugging minus batting average), so let’s cut the list off there. Let’s go to 21 hitters — you’ll see why. Here are your powerful spray hitters who play regularly.

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The Padres and Unrealistic Expectations

Last week, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Padres could be getting ready to clean house. On Sunday, the Padres fired General Manager Josh Byrnes.

Ron Fowler, executive chairman of the Padres, bristled a bit Sunday when he was asked if the dismissal of Josh Byrnes as general manager was a step back for the organization.

“This is a reset,” Fowler said. “This is not a step back. We’re doing this so that we could move forward. We expect continuous improvement from the organization. We’re getting it in other areas. We are not getting it on the baseball field.”

There’s nothing controversial about this statement. At 32-44, the Padres have the third-worst record in baseball, and they’ll have to play better than .500 baseball the rest of the way just to finish with the same 76-86 record that they’ve recorded the last two years. While there are some individual success stories, this team is not any better than the mediocrity that they’ve been for several years now. But this isn’t necessarily just about not seeing improvement.

There had been rumblings and rumors locally that the team was considering changes, either up top with Byrnes or possibly manager Bud Black. Mike Dee, team president and CEO of the Padres, said the Padres will keep Black at least through the end of the season.

“This was a decision that was not made in a day or two or a week or two. The last couple months, we’ve seen a team we had high expectations for. Those expectations have not been reached,” said Dee.

It’s understandable to say that the Padres have not been good this year, and even that they’ve played worse than expected. But I guess my question would be this: if the management team had “high expectations” for this roster, isn’t that their fault? Because I can’t find anyone else who thought this team was any good.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/23/14

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Boom.

12:00
Dan Szymborski: First thing’s first, our Electoral Brawllege business.

12:01
:

12:01
:

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Adams v. Adams!

12:02
Comment From Eminor3rd
Do you ever go to Dragons games?

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The Evolution of Yu Darvish

If you become one of the very best in the entire world at your profession: keep doing what you’re doing. You’ll likely continue to be among the very best in the entire world. Way to go!

But baseball is a funny thing. Sports in general, really. Difference with professional sports is, you’re constantly competing against those who are also the very best in the entire world. Once you reach elite status, the clock starts ticking for the league to begin figuring you out to some extent. The talent gap among the top 1% of the world’s greatest athletes isn’t very large and baseball players are really smart. Once you’re figured out, you better find a new way to continue being the best in the world, or you’re not going to last at the top for too long. Sometimes, it’s just too late. Sometimes, you have to make that adjustment before you’re figured out, so you can stay ahead of the curve. Or so you can keep yourself healthy. One, or both, of these things appear to be true with regards to Yu Darvish this season.
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Rule 7.13: Protecting Catchers, Hurting The Game

It’s important to remember that Rule 7.13 — a.k.a. the “don’t demolish the catcher” rule — was born from good intentions. No one wanted to see the next Buster Posey or Carlos Santana suffer a serious leg injury because they got run over at the plate. With all we know now about concussions, no one needed to see another catcher risk serious head trauma because they stood in there against a base runner. It’s a good idea, one that was obviously long overdue, and by at least one measure, it’s working: we haven’t had any catchers injured in collisions since the rule went into effect. We’ve had catchers getting Tommy John surgery and being assaulted by discarded masks during no-hitter celebrations, but not by collisions. That was the goal, and it’s been achieved. We should be happy about that.

Happy? Good. Because oh lord, is this not working right now. Needless to say, it hasn’t been a good few days for our old friend Rule 7.13. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Counting Clicks with Twins & Tigers; Mets, Padres, Red Sox

The line jumped out at me when I read it in the Minnesota Twins press notes earlier this week; “Brian Dozier has hit 30 home runs in the last 365 days.” A look at the stat sheet showed something else of interest: The 27-year-old second baseman is on pace to draw 100 walks.

Thirteen months ago, Dozier had seven home runs and two dozen walks in a little over 400 big-league plate appearances. His batting average for the season was barely over the Mendoza Line. Then came a skull session with hitting coach Tom Brunansky, accompanied by some serious film work.

“On May 20 last year, in Detroit, Bruno and I broke down everything,” Dozier told me on Tuesday. “It was kind of sink-or-swim for me. I was on the verge of getting sent down, so I knew I had to make an adjustment. We got me more grounded – more in my legs – which made my pitch recognition better and my power go up.

“It was about getting my foot down. My foot was up in the air when I started my swing. I’d see a ball coming into the zone and start to swing, and if the ball started breaking away I’d already be committed. Now I’m able to see the ball longer.”

Not being familiar with his old mechanics, I asked Dozier to clarify. Did he get rid of a leg kick he’d been using as a timing mechanism?

“It wasn’t really a leg kick,” responded Dozier. “It’s basically that I was coming down on my toe instead of flat-footed. My foot could be down with my toe, but it still wasn’t down. My hip would start to fly open as I started my swing and I couldn’t stop it. Now I’m more grounded. We call that counting clicks. The more clicks you have once your foot is down, the longer you have to see the ball. Six to eight clicks is a really good thing and at the beginning of last year I only had three or four.”

Once again I needed some clarification. Could he better define “counting clicks”?

“It’s about being on time,” explained Dozier. “You can have a leg kick like Jose Bautista or you could be as quiet as Joe Mauer. It’s once your foot is down — click, click, click – to the point of contact. If I’m starting my swing and it’s one, two, three, bam!, that’s three clicks. That’s not good. What I’m referring to is the in-between from the time you get your foot down to the time you make contact. More clicks means your foot is down early and you can see the ball more.”

I asked Dozier how he views the relationship between power and walks. Is he drawing more free passes because he’s hitting home runs, or is he going deep because he’s seeing more pitches?

“I think it’s all about sticking with my plan,” responded Dozier after a long pause. “This is my third year and I’m learning which pitches, so to speak, I can hit out. I have a better idea of what I need to lay off of. When I get a pitch in my zone is when I try to crank it.”

The home run numbers stand out – especially for a middle infielder – as does the walk rate. Batting average is another story. Dozier’s slash line is .243/.355/.449. Is that a concern?

“Batting average is probably the most overrated stat in baseball,” said Dozier. “Your job is to get on base, so you want to keep your OBP up. You obviously want a good OPS as well. Scoring runs and driving them in are the most important things.”

——

Dozier isn’t the only one counting clicks and putting up numbers. Detroit Tigers outfielder JD Martinez is hitting .312/.342/.596. He’s also red hot. The erstwhile Astro is 14 for his last 31 and has left the yard four times in his last six games.

Martinez’s emergence isn’t dissimilar to Dozier’s. Their backstories differ, but each has turned a corner thanks to mechanical tweaking. Not satisfied with the arc of his young career, the 26-year-old Martinez decided to rework his swing over the offseason.

“A guy I was working with showed me all these commonalities of great hitters,” Martinez told me last month. “I saw that there were good things about my swing, but also some bad things. My swing was too in-and-out-of-the-zone. When we slowed it down on film, I could see my bat was in the zone for one or two clicks. Good hitters are in the zone for six to eight clicks.

“It was a matter of bat path. I’ve changed my swing so it’s more of a slight uppercut to be level with the angle of the pitch. My swing used to be more east to west. The bat was in the zone from here to here, then it was out. Now I’m in the zone longer, which allows my margin of error to be greater.”

Martinez was a .332 hitter in the minor leagues and showed plenty of potential in parts of three seasons in Houston. But while he displayed occasional power, he was all too susceptible to slumps. Opposing pitchers were doing a good job of exploiting his cold zones. Changes were in order.

“At this level, if you have a glitch in your swing, pitchers are going to find it,” said Martinez. “The big leagues are the big leagues. Here, it’s not about talent. It’s not about whether you can hit a 95-mph fastball or whether you can hit a slider. It’s a chess game and about making adjustments. If a pitcher sees you can’t hit a fastball in, he’s going to keep pitching you in. He’s going to find that hole and exploit it. Basically, I needed to change my swing to adjust to how I was being pitched.”

Martinez brought his new mechanics to the Venezuelan Winter League and found he was able to handle the pitches he used to struggle with. He continued to fine-tune his swing when he returned stateside, and reported to spring training anxious to finally establish himself in the Astros lineup. He was never given the chance. Houston released him in mid-March and Detroit picked him up a few days later.

“There’s not much I can say about that other than they wanted to go in another direction,” said Martinez. “I wish I’d have been given more time to show what I can do, but that’s what they decided. I’m not a negative person, so I’m not going to say anything bad about the Astros. I’m just happy the Tigers picked me up and are giving me an opportunity. It’s been hard to keep my timing down, not playing every day, but I’ve been able to prove to myself that the changes I made will work.”

——

Kevin Plawecki is proving himself in Double-A. The 23-year-old New York Mets catching prospect is hitting .329/.373/.493 in Binghamton. Just as importantly, he’s displaying improved defensive skills.

Drafted 35th overall in 2012 out of Purdue, Plawecki projects to hit for average at the big-league level. The former Big 10 Player of the Year uses the entire field and has excellent bat-to-ball skills. But he does need to improve his plate discipline. In 1,013 professional plate appearances he’s fanned 104 times and has drawn 81 walks. He’s not exactly backing down from his approach.

“If you’re not striking out, you’re obviously swinging the bat,” said Plawecki. “You have to swing to make contact. I understand I don’t have a lot of walks, but I’m a hitter, not a walker. I’ll take walks, but I don’t think anybody gets in the box looking for one. If the pitch is in the zone, I see no reason not to swing at it. Ultimately you’re trying to get a hit every time you’re up to bat.”

Binghamton manager Pedro Lopez acknowledges the former Boilermaker is a free-swinger, but also sees a lot to like. One thing he expects to improve is Plawecki’s power production, which has been surprisingly sparse for a player with a linebacker’s build. Plawecki has six home runs this year and 21 since entering pro ball.

“He uses the whole field and is good at making adjustments,” said Lopez. “I think the home runs are going to come in time. We all know power is the last thing to develop, and Kevin has good size. He has a good understanding of how to control the barrel, so it’s mostly a matter of learning the strike zone better. Once he starts doing a better job of laying off the marginal pitches and focusing on his hot zone, the power numbers will go up.”

He’s already upping his caught-stealing percentage, which is a respectable 33 percent this season. A good receiver, Plawecki made great strides with his throwing in spring training. Working with big league bench coach Bob Geren, and minor league catching coordinator Bobby Natal, he turned a question mark into a positive.

“It was about cleaning up my arm action,” explained Plawecki. “I was a little too long and kind of getting caught on my front side a little bit. In a sense, my arm was having to catch up to my body. We eliminated that and got everything working together.”

How close to big-league ready is Plawecki?

“He’s close, but I don’t want to put a time frame on him,” said Lopez. “That wouldn’t be fair. We have to remember this kid was in the South Atlantic League at the beginning of last year. I will say that he’s making good progress.”

——

Matt Wisler didn’t look like the top pitching prospect in the San Diego system in his first four Triple-A starts. The 21-year-old righthander was promoted to El Paso in May and proceeded to allow 21 runs in 13-and-a-third innings. It was a rude awakening for a hurler who’d breezed through the California League and dominated Double-A.

This year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook lauds Wisler’s mental toughness and poise, and both were evident in the way he bounced back. In five appearances since, the Bryan, Ohio native has allowed 10 earned runs in 31-and-a-third innings.

“It was definitely tough,” Wisler said of his four-game debacle. “I was kind of playing head games with myself, over-thinking everything and wondering what I was doing wrong. I was in my head too much.

“I had one big inning every game and that killed me. You have to be able to stop the bleeding once you get guys on base, and I was allowing four or five runs before I knew it. I was letting the game speed up on me rather than settling down and making my pitches.”

Wisler had a 2.03 ERA last year in the hitter-friendly California League. What made his transition to the Pacific Coast League so tumultuous?

“The Cal League is a hitter’s league, but the PCL is a hitter’s league with better hitters,” explained Wisler. “Here, your mistakes get punished a lot more, and I was leaving balls up to get punished. I was giving up doubles and triples with guys on. I gave up a lot of home runs as well.

“I couldn’t command my fastball down in the zone. It was up, flat, and easy to hit. I was maybe overthrowing a little bit, especially in the first couple of games. When things started to unravel, I’d try to do too much instead of taking a step back and just making a good pitch. I was trying to blow it by hitters, and that’s not going to happen at this level.”

El Paso pitching coach Mike Cather knows Wisler well, having previously served as the Padres minor-league pitching coordinator. He agrees the youngster learned a lot in the lambastings.

“He found out making pitches is a lot more important than trying to out-stuff somebody,” said Cather. “He took some damage, but his learning curve is extremely steep. He figured things out pretty quickly.”

According to Cather, Wisler’s changeup usage is improving and his slider is average-plus with more depth than run. His two-seam fastball has good late action and his four-seam fastball has “another three or four mph under the hood for when he wants to go for a punch out.” Cather likes Wisler’s increased abilty to add and subtract, varying his fastball velocity between 89 and 95.

Wisler’s two- and four-seam usage is determined partly by feel, partly by handedness.

“It kind of depends on the day and the hitters,” explained Wisler. “If there are a ton of lefties I’m probably going to throw 55-60 percent two-seams. If there are a lot of righties I’m probably going to be 70 percent four-seams. How many arm-side pitches I’m throwing depends a lot on the lineup.”

Will Wisler get an opportunity to face a big league lineup this summer as a fresh-faced 21-year-old?

“I think there’s a significant chance he could pitch in San Diego this year,” said Cather. “It could be a spot start, or a two-start stint, just to get his feet wet. It could also be out of the bullpen. There are different ways to break a guy into a major league environment.”

——

Karsten Whitson signed with the Red Sox yesterday. An 11th-round pick this year out of the University of Florida, the 22-year-old righthander reportedly received a $100,000 bonus. In 2010 he turned down a reported $2.1 million after being taken ninth-overall by the Padres out of high school.

If Whitson regrets his earlier decision, he’s not letting on. When I spoke to him last week, he professed to being proud of what he’s accomplished over the past four years. Any looking back is done with positives in mind.

“My time at Florida was great,” said Whitson. “I went to the College World Series, won two SEC championships, and graduated [with a degree in psychology]. It was a very tough decision, but after doing some self reflection I though it was the right choice. I’d always been a huge Gators fan and it was a dream of mine to play there. I was able to do that, and now I’m following my dream to play professional baseball.”

I asked Whitson if bonus parameters were discussed prior to the 2010 draft.

“No,” replied Whitson. “ I got picked and they just kind of threw a number at me – what they valued me at – and talking with my family it seemed like pursuing an education and a degree was more important at that time in my life.”

Whitson went 8-1, 2.40 in his freshman season at Florida. Then came the injury that threw his future earnings further in doubt.

“My sophomore year, I felt some discomfort in my forearm,” explained Whitson. “I had a little tendonitis, and being the young player I was, I came back from that a little too fast, which led to some shoulder issues. There’s always been a lot of torque in my delivery, and pitching around the forearm soreness led to the internal impingement in my shoulder. There was some build-up on the joint — a callus building up on the nerve – so I decided to go ahead and get it cleaned up by Dr. Andrews.”

The 6-foot-4 righty threw in the mid-90s before the injury. That dropped to the high 80s before he went under the knife and missed the 2013 season. I asked Whitson where his velocity is now.

“My last college start was against LSU in the SEC tournament and my velo was great,” said Whitson. “I was 93 to 97 and my slider was up to 88. It’s all starting to come together for me, not just my shoulder, but also my feel. I missed some time over the past few years, but I’m heading in the right direction. I’m with a great organization that’s going to develop me the right way.”

As for the money he passed up four years ago, that will matter even less if he reaches the big leagues and goes on to earn a multi-year contract. His response when I suggested as much?

“Absolutely,” said Whitson. “Absolutely.”


FG Hidden Feature: Leaderboard and Game Log Splits

This afternoon, Jay Jaffe sent a tweet to DarenW, host of the always useful site Baseball Savant.

The answer was no, because while Daren has coded up some really neat stuff over there, he doesn’t have that specifically. But it occurred to me that Jay probably asked Daren because he looked for it on FanGraphs and couldn’t find it here, and he’s probably not the only person who has wanted to see monthly plate discipline splits and couldn’t find them here. But we actually do have them.

Here’s how you get them, as well as other splits not listed on a player’s individual splits page.

Go to our leaderboards. Scroll down to the bottom, where you see the custom player box. It looks like this.

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