For all of the natural ebbs and flows of individual player performance from year to year, the game’s ruling class – the elite among the elite, the upper crust – is a fairly closed society that remains fairly static from year to year. Any given year might have its Yasiel Puig joining that group, or its Albert Pujols conceding his seat, but the core membership is fairly predictable. What might happen in any given season, however, is one of these elite players taking a temporary step up in class, reaching an even more rarified air than ever before. This week, let’s take a deeper look at the 2014 performance of some of the game’s elite, and determine whether they in fact have taken things to the next level. Today, Felix Hernandez. Read the rest of this entry »

Player projections, because of what they are, are always going to be pretty accurate at the group level, or else they’d be really lousy player projections in dire need of improvement. So when thinking about the future, a projection should always be the starting point. One truth is that there will be few exceptions to the rule that players follow their projections. Another truth is that there will always be exceptions. A third truth is that baseball fans will over-identify presumed exceptions, because we’re not very good at weighing recent events. As such, if this counts as a debate, it’s going to be a long-running, unwinnable debate, with new possible exceptions submitted every year. There’s always going to be some reason to believe in a given player who hasn’t performed like his projection over a couple weeks or months.

Dave wrote about some pretty important research last Friday, finding that in-season projections work well and there’s not much sense in isolating season-to-date statistics. Monday I put up ten polls and then another ten polls, focusing on position players and pitchers who haven’t met their projections so far. On each player, I wanted to gauge audience opinion, to see who people think might be exceptions, and who people think are just players on a streak or a slump. There’s not a ton we’ll be able to do with the results, when it comes to furthering our understanding of the game, but I thought it could be fun to quickly review some stuff we can already see. While more voting has taken place since the writing of this post, the numbers shouldn’t have changed very much.

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Yasiel Puig, it should go without saying, is one of the most fascinating players in baseball. He was incredible in his debut last year, and somehow has been better this year, to a near-historic extent, as he’s notably improved his plate discipline and become one of the best overall hitters in the game. He’s almost certainly going to start in the All-Star Game, and, along with Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gomez and Giancarlo Stanton, he’s going to get some National League MVP consideration.

Really, it’s not hard to see why. If you think about a “five-tool player,” Puig seems to fit that description pretty well. Does he have the hit tool? Of course. Power? Obviously. Throwing arm? Even more obviously. Defense? Well, the defensive metrics don’t love him, but he can do this, which also took a fair amount of the fifth tool, speed. There’s seemingly nothing Puig can’t do on a baseball field; there’s seemingly several things he can do that no one else can.

Except… there’s one thing that Puig is still really, really bad at: For all his speed, he absolutely cannot steal bases, to the point that he really should give up trying to completely. For now, at least. Read the rest of this entry »

After a slow start to the season, the Nationals are finally playing like one of the best teams in baseball. While Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper generate most of the headlines, however, it’s their low-profile first baseman who is one of the driving forces behind their surge. And when you begin to talk to Adam LaRoche, he helps you understand that hitting is as complicated as it is simple.

Part of LaRoche’s comeback is as basic as a change in medication. Last year, the slugger tried an extended release medication for his ADHD, and the results were nothing short of disastrous. “All of them are really appetite suppressers, and so I got to the point where I had no appetite,” LaRoche said before a game with the Giants this June. “Heat and humidity played a role — sweating every day, losing a bunch of weight — and I got down to college weight.” LaRoche just wasn’t healthy.

That can help explain the return in his power stroke, perhaps. But despite great results, he’s not really hitting the ball much further — his batted ball distance on homers and flies is actually down three feet from last year. It’s still top 100 in the league, but he hasn’t added punch on those balls.

Part of what LaRoche is doing that is so great is that he’s making contact like he never has before. He’s posting a career-best strikeout rate (17.1%, career 22%), and it’s backed by the best swinging-strike rate of his career (6.9%, compared to his career mark of 9.7%). That one stumped the hitter — “That… is really unexplainable,” he said as he tugged at his beard.

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Last night, Mike Minor made a mistake that Mike Trout crushed. It looked like this.

That was an 84 mile-per-hour slider that broke down and in and ended up on the inner half of the plate, towards the bottom of the strike zone. Here’s where the PITCHF/x cameras said that pitch was located.

Inner half of the plate, but elevated enough to be right in the middle of Trout’s wheelhouse. He didn’t miss it, and it ended up in the seats. On the one hand, Trout’s really good, and he’s going to hit home runs. On the other hand, maybe it’s time for pitchers to stop throwing Mike Trout so many down-and-in breaking balls?

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It’s rare that a player becomes synonymous with his team. Tony Gwynn was one such player. He is literally known as Mr. Padre. The address of Petco Park is 19 Tony Gwynn Drive. When John Moores owned the team, he even paid for a new stadium at Gwynn’s alma mater, and it was named Tony Gwynn Stadium. Today however, we lose the opportunity to speak of Gwynn in the present tense, as he has unfortunately passed away at the age of 54.

The records that Gwynn holds in Padres history are essentially all of them. He holds the top nine single-season batting averages in team history. Cumulatively, his .338 career average is 24 points higher than the next man on that list, Mark Loretta. That is made all the more remarkable when you consider how long Gwynn wore the San Diego uniform — he played nearly twice as many games as the next player on the list, Garry Templeton. And he did rack up more than double the at-bats and plate appearances than did Templeton. Gwynn retired with an even 65.0 WAR. No other Padres player has even 30. Among active players, Chase Headley is the leader, but at 19.6 WAR and very close to free agency, he’s not going to sniff Gwynn any time soon. In fact, it’s probably not hyperbole to say that the player most equipped to surpass Gwynn isn’t on the Padres right now.

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Last Friday, Dave wrote about MGL writing about the significance of in-season projections. While we often find ourselves trying to find the value in current-season statistics, what MGL demonstrated is that, overall, projections worked better than putting too much weight on recent events. What MGL demonstrated is that, overall, the projections were outstanding, even when dealing with potential outliers. A short, hypothetical example: if you had a guy projected to hit .300, and for a little while he hit .400, and the projection was increased to .305, then that .305 would be the smartest bet the rest of the way. Players, simply, don’t often dramatically change their levels of true talent.

But of course, every rule has exceptions. Every projection system has players who disobey it and come out of nowhere to excel or suck a lot. This is where we spend a lot of our time — trying to identify players who are in the process of meaningfully changing. Players who, say, add pitches, or players who change their swing patterns. We’re always looking for guys for whom the projections might miss the mark. We know those guys exist — we just have to find them.

So in this post, you’re going to see 20 players and 20 polls. That’s a lot of polls, but I promise they’ll go by fast. There are five hitters out-performing their updated projections*, five hitters under-performing their updated projections, five pitchers out-performing their updated projections, and five pitchers under-performing their updated projections. For every player, one could make the argument that something has changed, and the projections just haven’t caught up yet. I want to get a feel for who you think has actually changed, and who might just be riding a streak. And while the poll answers are kind of subjective, they should do well enough — use your best judgment. From this exercise, what we’ll eventually learn is almost nothing. But it’ll be kind of fun and kind of informative, to look at tomorrow and to look at in October. Let’s just get this over with so you can do what you’re actually supposed to be doing.

(* – ZiPS and Steamer, blended, per usual around here)

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Oscar Taveras is like a sad birthday gift.

He’s the big one. The first gift you asked your parents for, like, seven months before your birthday. You knew it was coming. You were even pretty sure it was that giant box in the back of your parents closet that you stumbled upon while you totally weren’t snooping around for presents. But you couldn’t open it yet. No, no. It just toiled there, right in front of your eyes. Big and beautiful. But you couldn’t play with it. No, you had to wait, damnit.

Then, finally, your birthday came.
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Watch a Seattle Mariners game when Mike Zunino’s behind the plate and, eventually, there’ll probably be a runner on third. At that point, a wild pitch or a passed ball brings in a run, but you might still see something breaking, thrown in the dirt. Then you’ll hear about how much trust the pitcher must have in the catcher, to keep the ball in front of him. After all, with a shaky receiver, a pitcher might think twice about burying something offspeed. I could continue with this pseudo-example, or I could copy and paste an actual example. From Phil Miller, a month ago:

Both Kyle Gibson and Glen Perkins had plenty of praise after the game for Kurt Suzuki, who has clearly earned the trust of the pitching staff for his ability to block pitches in the dirt. “I think I threw four sliders tonight with a guy on third base,” Perkins said of his typically diving-in-the-dirt pitch. “I threw [Corey] Hart two and I threw Justin Smoak two, and yeah, he’s going to block them.” Manager Ron Gardenhire said that trust in Suzuki allows Twins pitchers to throw their best pitches in any situation — something that they would be more hesitant to do with a catcher who lets too many balls get past.

It all makes sense. With a good blocker, a pitcher won’t be afraid to throw anything. With a worse blocker, a pitcher might be reluctant to throw certain pitches. And then the pitcher’s limited, and perhaps that renders him less successful. But why not look at the numbers? It’s not like it’s really that difficult to look at the numbers. Here come some numbers, with research conducted using Baseball Savant, of course.

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In his own words, Trevor Bauer has “always been into math, science and engineering.” That will come as no surprise if you’ve heard the 23-year-old Cleveland Indians righthander talk about his craft. He addresses pitching in much the same way a physicist expounds on matter.

He inherited his mindset – and by extension his approach to pitching – from his father. Ironically, bloodlines weren’t responsible for his love of the game.

“He’s been huge in my development, both as a person and as a baseball player, but he actually didn’t play growing up,” said Bauer. “He wanted to, but his family couldn’t afford to buy him a glove. He’s always encouraged me, though. My first year of not playing tee-ball – my first year of kid pitch – it was bases loaded and nobody out and they brought me in to pitch. I got out of it and after that my dad was like, ‘We should get you some pitching lessons to make sure you don’t hurt yourself.’”

Pitching lessons became a part of his formative years, especially after he was introduced to the Texas Baseball Ranch.

“When I was 10, I started taking pitching lessons from a guy named Jim Wagner,” said Bauer. “In 2003, Jim went to the American Baseball Coaches Association conference and heard a guy named Ron Wolforth talk. A year later my dad sent me down to Ron’s camp in Texas. It’s fairly expensive, but he bought me six camps. I’ve been going back there every summer since.”

Bauer’s father has remained engaged every step along the way, and not just financially. Some of the support has been typical of father-son relationships. Other aspects have been outside the box.

“He would always encourage me to do my throwing,” said Bauer. “There were times in high school where I’d have a bucket of balls on each handlebar of my bike, a backpack on my back, and a glove on my hand, riding to the park to throw. He also came to all of my tournaments. But I think where my dad has been the biggest influence on me is with his background.”

Bauer’s father – after a short stint running a Dunkin’ Donuts out of high school – earned an engineering degree from the Colorado School of Mines.

“He thinks about things very scientifically,” said Bauer, who followed in his father’s footsteps and studied engineering at UCLA. “You’re taught a very specific process. You have an ultimate outcome – you want to build a bridge or build a plane – and ask yourself, ‘OK, what are the components I need to get there? How am I going to go about getting the job done as efficiently as possible?’ I was brought up that way by him. I’ve always been into math, science and engineering, so we communicate very well in that respect.

“Whenever there’s something I want to do baseball-wise… say I want to throw harder. What do I need to do to achieve that? I need to get stronger, faster, more athletic; I need to change this or that about the physics of my mechanics. My dad and I will apply that process. We talk about that stuff a lot. A lot of the progressive training methods I’ve used are the culmination of work put in by Jim Wagner, Ron Wolforth, my dad, and myself. We’ve tried to design the most optimal training program possible. That extends to pitch sequencing and learning the shapes of my pitches.”

Math, science and engineering. It’s hard to overemphasize the degree to which the Bauer mindset is based on those disciplines. Their study of pitch movement – including how a hitter perceives an incoming pitch – is a good example.

“My dad built a series of Rebar,” explained Bauer. “He set it up 20 feet in front of the mound and I’d throw a ball through a small hole in it. He put a camera behind me, so when the ball passes through the grid we could generate coordinates. Basically, we created a coordinate grid for the ball going to the plate. We could say, ‘OK, at 20 feet out of your hands it’s at X, Y, and at the plate it’s at X1,Y1.’ We could figure out the average movement so I could work on throwing all of my pitches to look the same at 20 feet.

“My dad understands the Magnus force and how spin affects the way the ball moves. If I’m ever struggling with a pitch, I’ll play catch with him. He’ll recognize if the spin axis is wrong – maybe my curveball axis is tilted the wrong way because of how the ball is in my hand – because we’ve played catch and talked about it for so long.”

In many respects, the son has been the teacher as much as the student. Trevor grew up learning from his father – and still does — while Warren Bauer, chemical engineer who never played baseball, has become well-versed on the science of pitching.

“I’ve taught him a ton,” said Trevor Bauer. “Everything he knows about baseball is due to either me teaching it to him or him doing research because I play. Once I became interested in pitching, he started learning everything he could to help me out. The depth of his understanding about pitching is pretty impressive now.”

Like father, like son. Like son, like father.

——

It should come as no surprise that Marco Gonzales is the son of a pitching coach. The 22-year-old lefthander is one of the top prospects in the St. Louis Cardinals system thanks in part to an advanced feel for his craft. He’s moving fast. Twelve months after being drafted 19th overall out of Gonzaga University, he’s already in Double-A.

Gonzales’ father, Frank, is currently the pitching coach for Colorado’s short-season affiliate, the Tri-City Dust Devils. The former minor league hurler taught his son well. Marco has a 1.77 ERA this season between two levels and a 11.3 K/9 since a mid-May promotion to Springfield.

The younger Gonzales is known for his pitchability, a label he embraces.

“That’s my identity as a pitcher,” agreed Gonzales. “I throw in the low 90s, but by no means is that overpowering. The ability to command the strike zone and mix in three different pitches for strikes is definitely my strength.”

Until recently, the Fort Collins, Colorado native featured four offerings. He’s scrapped a pitch he developed – and used effectively – at Gonzaga. As a result, his curveball has taken on a somewhat bigger role.

“I threw a cutter the past two years or so, but in spring training I had a little minor forearm flareup and shut that pitch down,” said Gonzales. “I suspected that was part of the problem, so now I’m just fastball, changeup, curveball. The cutter is a pitch that uses the extensor muscles on the outside of your forearm, and that’s where I was getting sore. We kind of mutually agreed to shut it down for now.

“I’m throwing my curveball in different counts this season. It’s my third [best] pitch, but I still need to use it. That said, because of my changeup it does kind of get thrown on the back burners a little bit.”

The savvy southpaw’s signature pitch is a plus changeup that makes his otherwise average fastball play up. Well-educated on his craft, he recognizes which one should be prioritized to augment the other.

“My number-one pitch is my fastball, and I think that should be the case for anybody, unless maybe you’re a specialty closer,” said Gonzales. “As a starter, your fastball needs to be your best pitch. For me, that means locating it to both sides of the plate with some run. That’s what pitching is all about.

“I throw both a two-seam and a four-seam and use them pretty equally. If my two-seamer isn’t running on a given day I’ll go with more four-seamers, but if both are working I’ll throw both pitches to left- and right-handed hitters. I like to throw my two-seamer to the arm side of the plate, away to righties and in to lefties. There isn’t much velocity difference between them, maybe just one or two [mph].”

Mechanically, the lefthander is pretty much what you might expect from someone who grew up learning to pitch, as opposed to just reaching back and firing fastballs.

“There’s no max effort with me,” said Gonzales. “As a starter who isn’t overpowering, I don’t want to burn my innings out right away. My effort level usually stays pretty steady throughout the game. I feel my delivery is pretty clean. My dad, being a pitching coach, has always enforced balance, repeatability, driving off my back leg, and having a good finish. Those are things I focus on and feel I do well.”

——

It was especially fitting that Garin Cecchini’s parents were on hand for his big-league debut earlier this month. The Cecchini’s are very much a baseball family. Glenn is the head coach at Barbe High School in Lake Charles, Louisiana. His wife, Raissa, is an assistant coach. Garin’s younger brother, Gavin, plays in the Mets system.

After the game, I asked the 23-year-old Red Sox rookie about his first two at bats – a strikeout looking and an opposite field double.

“Walking up to the plate the first time, I was, ‘I’m not going to be nervous!” said Cecchini, who returned to Triple-A Pawtucket the following day. “Then I got in the box and it was, ‘Hmmm… OK, I’m nervous.’ But it was a good nervous. It was in my stomach. It was a happy nervous.

“On the hit, I was watching the ball a little bit running to first base. When I knew it was going to hit off the Green Monster, I put my head down. But I was smiling. I always have a smile on my face when I’m playing this game. I’m living the dream. Even if I’m in Triple-A, I’m living the dream. I’m playing baseball for a living.”

I asked Cecchini what it was going be like to see his parents when he walked out of the clubhouse a few minutes later.

“It’s going to be awesome, man. What else can I say? It’s going to be awesome.”

——

A player’s teammates are his second family, which means the happy-go-lucky Cecchini has plenty of brothers-in-arms in the Red Sox system. One of them is highly-regarded first-base prospect Travis Shaw, who is hitting .303/.386/.504 this year between Portland and Pawtucket.

“I was thrilled for Cheech when he got called up,” said Shaw. “I’ve played with him since [short-season] Lowell and it kind of hit home for one of my best friends in baseball to live his dream. Him getting his first big league hit was awesome. He came back down to Pawtucket with the biggest smile on his face.”

Shaw should make his own debut someday. When it happens, no one will be more excited than his father, former All-Star reliever Jeff Shaw.

“When I get called up, I know my dad will be on the first flight to where I’m playing,” said Shaw. “He’ll be excited. As a matter of fact, I think he’ll be even more excited than me. He follows my career closely and is going to be absolutely thrilled.”

Travis had plenty of thrills growing up as the son of a big-league closer. He even made it onto SportsCenter once – much to his embarrassment. It happened while he was a bat boy for one of his father’s teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

“Apparently I was disgusted about how my dad was pitching that night,” explained Shaw. “I was in the dugout and I threw my hands in the air. Later, SportsCenter had a split screen of him walking a guy and me throwing my hands up like, ‘What are you doing?’”

——-

Fathers, sons and baseball go together like hand in glove. With that in mind, I asked six players, and one coach, about the relationship they share with their fathers and the game they love.

Dave Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays bench coach: “My dad was hard on me. If one day I was two-for-four, he wanted to know why I wasn’t four-for-four. He stayed on me pretty good. When you’re young, you want to say ‘Hey dad, give me a break,’ but looking back now, it was a life lesson.

“When I was playing in the big leagues he’d call me up and say, ‘I watched the game on TV and you’re dropping your hands; you did this, you did that.’ Even to this day he’ll call me every now and again to ask, ‘Why did you guys do this, why did you guys do that?’ But that’s just my dad loving the game, and loving me.”

Evan Gattis, Atlanta Braves catcher: “I have to admit I cried when I was signed up for tee ball. But after that it was just what we did. At the side of the house there were these two little worn out places where my dad and I would play catch. There’s just so much love I have for my dad and for baseball. He still plays catch, too. If I ever go to home run derby, he wants to throw to me.”

Brock Holt, Boston Red Sox infielder: “My dad wasn’t a baseball guy. He was a football and track guy who played pretty much every sport but baseball, but we did play catch and he’d hit me ground balls. After a while, I got a little too strong for us to play catch. One time in high school, in the back yard, he missed my throw and it hit him in the leg. It’s kind of crazy to think he never played baseball, because kids normally do what their dads do. He let me follow my own path.”

Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves pitcher: “My dad never played baseball but he’s really enjoying it now. He travels all over the country on his motorcycle to check out the ballparks and watch me play. He’s here in Boston now. He and a few of his buddies rode their motorcycles up from Alabama. He took the tour of Fenway and has also taken the tour at Wrigley.”

Wil Myers, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder: “My dad helped me along the way – he helped me with my swing and took me to practices – but the biggest thing he did for me was not sugar-coat anything. He told me the truth, whether I had a good game or a bad game. If I got two hits, he wanted to know what happened in the other at bats. He kind of backed off once I got into pro ball, but he still watches all of my games on TV.”

Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves infielder: “He wanted me to do well and succeed, but he mostly wanted me to have fun. I didn’t have to worry about him getting mad if I struck out or made an error. He was proud of me whether I did good or bad. My own son plays baseball – he’s eight – and I’m bringing him up the same way. I think he’s more competitive than I am. He gets really mad if he doesn’t win. He follows what I’m doing, but he’s more worried about getting his own hits.”

Michael Bourn, Cleveland Indians outfielder: “It was a marriage made in heaven pretty much. My daddy started me playing baseball when I was a little boy, just four or five. It’s a game he loves, and a game I love, so we had some good times growing up together.

“He was my coach for a few years and there was no slack cut. He was an old-school coach who was demanding and stern. He didn’t show me any favoritism. Now I’m a grown man and have my own son. He’s four, and I’ve already got him swinging a bat. I used to be the child and now I’m the father. It’s a completely different perspective. My daddy used to tell me, ‘You’ll see some day when you have kids.’ Now that I’m experiencing it first hand, I appreciate him even more. He pushed me, but he was also proud of me. I want to say ‘thank you’ to him for that.”