Archive for Daily Graphings

The Information You Require: Colby Lewis, 2012 vs. 2014

While it’s true that, not unlike snowflakes, all baseball players are unique, it’s also the case that most of them (i.e. most of those baseball players) follow somewhat predictable career paths. First, they are young and merely promising. Then, they are less young but something more than just promising — at which point they’re perhaps capable of playing in the major leagues. Then they are progressively worse until they retire, take work as a scout or manager or broadcaster, and then die.

It’s entirely possible that Texas right-hander Colby Lewis will take work as a scout someday — and is a certainty that, barring considerable advancements in medical technology, that he’ll also die — however, his career path to date has been unusual in most other regards.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ivan Nova’s Injury a Big Blow To Limited Yankee Depth

You most likely heard over the weekend that Yankees righty Ivan Nova walked off the mound in the fifth inning of Saturday’s start in Tampa shaking his right arm, and now we know that he’s got a partially torn UCL in his elbow. While he’s yet to decide whether he’ll rehab or opt for surgery, this is the kind of thing that almost always, always ends in Tommy John surgery, and it seems more likely than not that we don’t see him again in pinstripes before mid-2015.

In and of itself, this is actually smaller news than it seems, if only because we all know by now that this is the year that elbows are popping at an alarming rate, with Nova — assuming he does choose surgery — becoming the 21st professional pitcher (including minor leaguers) to get a zipper this year alone. 14 of those are major leaguers. He is, depending on how you look at such things, only the fifth or sixth or seventh most accomplished of the afflicted. If you could make a starting rotation of 2014 Tommy John pitchers, he might not even be in it. (Why one would do such a thing is another question entirely. That rotation might still be better than Arizona’s, though.)

So this is really less about Nova than it is about what the Yankees will…  oh, hang on:

nova_vertical_release_2014

Read the rest of this entry »


FG on Fox: Zack Greinke’s Tinkering

Over the course of a career, every starting pitcher has to deal with change. As the velocity on their pitches wanes or the league figures out what they throw, they have to continually adapt; feature secondary pitches more often, develop new pitches, add wrinkles to old pitches, or mix up their pitch selections to keep hitters off balance. If you want to get 600 outs per year, every year, you can’t do the same thing every time out.

For Zack Greinke, much of that story of adaptation revolves around his slider.

There were the heady times, of course. The 2009 season with Kansas City brought a Cy Young Award. His slider? “It was amazing, the best pitch I ever had,” Greinke said before a game with the Giants last week. That pitch was a big part of how he posted a 2.16 ERA and struck out 242 batters.

Unfortunately, time comes for all pitchers. For Greinke, he saw it in the slider. The pitch “slowly got a little worse,” Greinke said — it was “coming out real good, but the hitters weren’t really reacting to it.” Why? Greinke shrugged. That 2009 slider “was just better, it just happens.” Watch the rates on the pitch drop.

Read the rest at FoxSports.com.


Scouting Dean Anna as a Pitcher

Saturday was not the best day for the Yankees. Ivan Nova was shaky throughout his first three starts. The Yankees really needed him to eat his share of innings in preparation for a Vidal Nuno-led bullpen day on Sunday. Instead, Nova got spanked. He lasted just four innings, allowed eight runs, four home runs, and partially tore his UCL. The latter item is the worst of an ugly list. Dellin Betances stretched out to 1.2 innings, burning him for Sunday. Matt Daley threw 1.1 innings and allowed six runs. Rather than burn another reliever, the Yankees turned to Dean Anna.

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Blue Jays, Orioles, Mets, SABR BioProject

Mitch Nay is one of the top prospects in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, the 20-year-old third baseman combines raw power and an advanced approach. His grandfather deserves a lot of the credit.

Nay grew up learning the game from Lou Klimchock. A journeyman infielder who spent parts of 12 seasons in the big leagues, Klimchock played for five teams and counts multiple Hall of Famers among his former teammates. He’s passed along much of what he knows to his grandson.

“He’s been a big influence on me,” said Nay, who is playing with the low-A Lansing Lugnuts. “He’s helped with instructional stuff, like hitting and throwing. He’s pretty much been my teacher since a young age.

“My grandpa is also the president of the Arizona Major League alumni, so I’ve been able to hang out with a lot of big names – historical figures in baseball – like Brooks Robinson and Bob Feller. I’ve been around the game my whole life, which makes being in pro ball almost second-nature.”

Nay is already older than his grandfather was when he debuted with the Kansas City Athletics at the end of the 1958 season.

“He played his first game at age 18,” explained Nay. “Last year when Jurickson Profar came up and hit a lead-off home run they were talking about the youngest guys ever to do that. My grandpa was on the list.”

Can he imagine what it would be like to play in the big leagues at such a young age?

“There’s so much I need to learn before that time comes,” admitted Nay. “It would definitely be a challenge, but my grandpa has talked to me about what it’s like. He’s told me to visualize it, to think of myself in some of these guys’ shoes. He says stuff like, ‘Imagine yourself getting on a plane in the middle of the night, going to a new city and waking up there to play a game.’”

Surprisingly, Klimchock practiced visualization in the 1960s. Less surprising is that his grandson does so now.

“When he played, he used to be on deck visualizing himself hitting a line drive over the shortstop’s head,” said Nay. “He says your mind doesn’t know the difference from what your body does. I do that sometimes too. If I’m facing a sinkerballer, I’ll visualize him getting it up and me hitting it in the gap.”

Nay describes his hitting approach as looking for a pitch that’s middle to middle-away, focusing on the right-center field gap, and having a good two-strike approach. You can probably guess where that comes from.

“My grandfather’s approach was pretty simple,” said Nay. “It was basically to stay up the middle and have a good two-strike approach. Growing up, he’d always talk to me about the importance of not giving away at bats. Don’t strike out; put the ball in play. I’ve come to realize you can sometimes hit the ball farther with two strikes, because your approach is better. You can still have power with two strikes.”

Klimchock has taught his grandson more than approach. He’s taught him about the past.

“He’s talked about facing pitchers like Don Drysdale,” said Nay “He’s told me about guys he played with, like Roger Maris and Hank Aaron. I’ve learned a lot about baseball history from him. He even played for a few teams that don’t exist anymore.”

——

Here is a description of the home run Klimchock hit as an 18-year-old, excerpted with permission from the SABR BioProject. It was written by Chuck Johnson.

“When he stepped to the plate as the leadoff hitter for the Kansas City Athletics on the final day of the 1958 season, 18-year-old second baseman Lou Klimchock was looking for his first major-league hit, not to make modern major-league history. Playing in just his second major-league game, Klimchock achieved both. On the mound that day for the homestanding Chicago White Sox was 19-year-old Stover McIlwain. A tall, lanky right-hander, McIlwain was also making his second major-league appearance, and, as fate would have it, his last. Klimchock picked out a McIlwain offering he liked and drove the pitch into the Comiskey Park right-field stands for his first major-league hit and home run. It was the first time in modern major-league history that a teenager had homered off a teenager.”

For those of you unfamiliar with the Baseball Biography Project, it is an invaluable and rapidly-growing resource. The Society for American Baseball Research [SABR] champions the game’s rich history, and the BioProject committee, headed by Mark Armour, is an ambitious part of those efforts. A primary goal is to publish a full-life biography of every major league player in history. Klimchock’s is one of 2,770 that have been completed as of this date.

According to Armour, it took close to six years to reach 1,000 bios, and another 3.5 years to get to 2,000. At its current pace the third 1,000 will take just over two years. The committee is currently producing 400-450 biographies annually, which is roughly twice the rate that new major league players are debuting. If you’re interested in becoming involved, please contact  bioassign@sabr.org.

——

Harry Chiti is still awaiting his biography. It needs to be written. A catcher for four teams from 1950-1962, Chiti broke into the big leagues with the Cubs as a 17-year-old bonus baby. His biggest claim to fame is that he was the first player ever traded for himself.

His son, Dom Chiti, was a minor league pitcher for six seasons before becoming a coach, scout and special assistant. He now serves as the Orioles bullpen coach. I asked Dom about his late father.

“My father was a huge influence on my baseball life,” said Dom. “I was probably more advanced mentally because of him. I learned to change speeds at an earlier age than most guys. He would talk about the game inside the game, like the cat-and-mouse that happens between pitchers and hitters.

“He’d relate stories about players and how to pitch to them. Ted Williams was one. He said Ted Williams used to walk to home plate and say ‘If you can throw three balls on the outside corner you can have my strikeout, but don’t miss.’ He also told me how he’d be going to catch a ball – it was right there – and Ted would take it right out of his glove. His bat speed was that ridiculous.”

In April 1962, the fledgling New York Mets acquired Chiti from the Indians. Two months later he was sent back to Cleveland.

“When he got traded for himself it was actually a cash deal,” said Dom. “I don’t know how many people know this, but the money went to pay for the Chief Wahoo that went up in right field at the old ballpark. That’s what the money was used for. My dad wasn’t so much traded for himself as he was traded for a sign.”

——

Many players excelled in multiple sports before settling on baseball. Orioles outfielder David Lough played two in college and could have played a third. His primary youth sport is the one he gave up first.

“I loved soccer,” said Lough, who came of age in Akron, Ohio. “I played my whole life. It was my No. 1 go-to sport in high school, and I received a lot of D-I offers, but I kind of grew out of it. I never grew out of baseball. I’ve loved being on the diamond from the time I was a little kid playing tee ball. I knew in college it was what I wanted to keep playing.”

Football replaced soccer as Lough’s second sport, despite him having played it only one year in high school.

“My senior year, I grew a real liking for football,” said the speedy 5-foot-10, 175-pound fly-chaser. “I ended up going to college to play both football and baseball. I went to Mercyhurst, a Division-II school in Erie PA, and was a receiver and kick returner. We were in the [Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference] when I played, with schools like Grand Valley State. It was good quality football.

“I started putting it together my junior year — I had a couple of touchdowns – but my first few years of college football were a real growing period. In high school, I’d go to the huddle and our quarterback would tell me what to run. I didn’t know the plays. I would go from football practice to soccer practice, and would have soccer games on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. On Friday I’d have a football game. I was a busy guy and missed a ton of practice time, mostly because of soccer.”

——

Tommy Hunter excelled in a less-traditional sport. The Indianapolis native was a two-time judo champion.

“I was young when I did judo, only 10-12 years old,” said Hunter “I didn’t have any special moves, or anything like that, but I was pretty good. I won the Junior Olympics in judo. It’s basically a national tournament, so while it’s not something you’d call prestigious, it was pretty big for me.”

The Orioles closer is 6-foot-3, 260 pounds. I asked how big he was as a preteen judo champion.

“I wasn’t big when I was 12,” said Hunter. “I wasn’t big until I was a sophomore in high school. I was a normal kid. I wasn’t abnormal.”

My response was, “Unlike now?”

“You think I’m abnormal?” answered the affable-but-large hurler. “Wow. That’s pretty [bleeped] up. But that’s alright. You’re entitled to your opinion. I think I’m pretty [bleeping] normal.”

His home state of Indiana is a hoops hotbed. What about basketball?

“I played in high school, but I wasn’t very good,” said Hunter, who wryly added “I was a white kid and played the token minutes. I kept the GPA up for the team.”

——

Matt Bowman will elevate the GPA on most teams he plays for. The New York Mets pitching prospect majored in economics at Princeton University. Pro ball hasn’t been a steep learning curve for the 2012 draft pick. Last year he went 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA between low-A Savannah and high-A St. Lucie. This season he’s allowed just one run in 12 innings at Double-A Binghamton.

Bowman has a future in a big league front office when his playing days are over. The 22-year-old right-hander’s senior thesis had general manager written all over it.

“It looked into how much a win is worth in free agency,” said Bowman. “I looked into projected wins and what a team thinks they’re paying for a win as opposed to what they end up paying for a win. Why is there a discrepancy between the two? I looked at players and evaluated them basically as stocks paying off dividends in the form of WAR. What is their variance season to season, and based on that, what value do they hold?”

I asked him if any other players in the Mets’ organization speak the same saber-economic language.

Jeff Reynolds, who is in St. Lucie right now, graduated from Harvard,” said Bowman. “I spoke to him a little bit about it. There are certainly players who like to play GM and will talk about who’d they’d want to acquire in free agency, but I think the numbers aspect might make me a little unique.”

Bowman’s approach to his own stats is more mainstream.

“When it comes to my personal experience, I’m the complete opposite,” admitted Bowman. “As a starter, I think the most important stat is innings pitched. It’s the old-school opinion that starting pitchers should be workhorses and eat up a lot of innings. I’m aware if certain other stats are good or bad, like my strikeouts-to-walks ratio, but I mostly try to avoid them. Getting caught up in stats can lead to complacency, or getting a little too involved if things are going poorly.”

Bowman had eye-popping numbers in this last start. Pitching against New Hampshire, he allowed four hits over seven scoreless innings with one walk and 11 strikeouts. Preparation played a big role in his overpowering outing.

“I got to scout them in the stands a few days before,” explained Bowman. “I talked to Kevin Plawecki, my catcher, and we came up with a game plan. I basically told him what I wanted to do with each hitter and asked him to remember it. Once I’m on the mound, I don’t like thinking about that. Whatever he put down, I threw. My fastball and slider were working and I sprinkled in my other pitches as well.”

The Princeton product keeps notes on batters he faces, but not on himself.

“I feel that breaking down your personal performance too much can be detrimental,” opined Bowman. “There’s a feel to pitching and the simplest numbers are the most important. How deep did you go into the game and did you put up a zero? If you’re trying to do more than that, I think you’re trying to be a pitcher you’re not.”


Making a Pitcher Out of Edinson Volquez

The Pirates signed Edinson Volquez as a reclamation project, and it was easy enough to explain. A season ago, Volquez posted a 5.71 ERA, which is terrible. But he also posted a 4.24 FIP and a 4.07 xFIP, and on that basis alone, one could’ve argued that Volquez still had a place in the league. His pitches had remained the same as ever. The results didn’t follow, but the Pirates were willing to take a chance, just as they’d taken chances on other seemingly damaged pitchers in the recent past. Some got no better, but some were repaired.

Stop now and take a look at things. Between 2008-2013, out of pitchers who threw at least 500 innings, Volquez put up the second-worst walk rate and the second-worst strike rate. Now, out of qualified pitchers in 2014, Volquez is putting up a top-20 walk rate and a top-20 strike rate. Used to be, Volquez would throw about six of every ten pitches for strikes. So far this month, he’s thrown about seven of every ten pitches for strikes. There’s tweaking Edinson Volquez, and there’s making him a whole new guy. What might be a reasonable explanation for this?

Read the rest of this entry »


The Diamondbacks Still Can Reload

When the Diamondbacks won the National League West division in 2011, they looked like they had a pretty decent future. This week, things don’t look quite as rosy. According to our Playoff Odds page, only four teams have less of a shot at reaching the postseason as of this writing — the Astros, Twins, Cubs or Marlins. None of those teams were expected to contend for a playoff berth this season. The Dbacks were. Unless things change fast, they will not actually contend for a playoff spot, and then the question becomes how can the organization right the ship?

Since Jonah Keri had a great look over at Grantland at how we got to this point, and since I try to follow the mantra of Chris Tucker/Smokey and not bring up old ‘ish, I won’t waste your time repeating it. Here though, if you don’t feel like clicking through, is the money quote:
Read the rest of this entry »


Great Months in Terrible Seasons

Earlier this week I looked at some notably terrible months by hitters in seasons that otherwise turned out to be very good. As I said there, while we might know that it is too early in the season to be worried about individual hitters who are slumping, it is difficult not to let extreme early season lines get to us. Some players are smoking the ball unexpectedly at this point as well, and although the point can be made either way, looking at some individual cases in which hitters had great single months during otherwise horrible seasons might also be interesting.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Rise of the Offensive Catcher

You probably are well aware that offensive levels in baseball have collapsed over the last few years. We’re well past the “Year of the Pitcher” and are now at a point where run scoring is as scarce as it was back in the 1970s. It seems like no one can hit anymore, or at least, no more than one or two guys per team anyway. For various reasons, the recent trends in baseball have almost all gone in favor of the pitchers.

But not quite all. There is one place in baseball where offense is actually trending upwards, and that trend is behind the plate.

Last March, Mark Smith wrote about the improved offensive levels of catchers in recent years, but with another year of data and our new by-position split leaderboards, I think it’s worth pointing this out again. Especially because, for the first few weeks of 2014 at least, the trend seems to only be accelerating.

Read the rest of this entry »


FG on Fox: Do Umps Favor Aces?

As long as there are humans in charge of the strike zone, there are going to be inconsistencies. And as long as there are inconsistencies, there are going to be suspicions of bias.

Sometimes these are specific and a little paranoid. There are fans who believe umpires are biased against their favorite teams. Other times these paranoia are general and accepted without actual hard proof. For example, there’s a common belief that pitchers considered aces get the benefit of a bigger strike zone, that they’re given the benefit of the doubt around the borders, and this is just a part of the game, and there’s nothing to be done about it, really.

But is this really a part of the game?

We can accept it, or we can investigate it, and we might as well investigate it before we decide whether or not to accept it. This wouldn’t have been an option in the ’90s, when people believed Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine were getting calls. But we’ve had PITCHf/x data for the past several years, and we can make use of it toward this end. What strikes zones do aces get, relative to the non-aces?

We’ll cover the window between 2008-13. First, we must define an ace. This is subjective, but I’m going with a definition of at least five Wins Above Replacement, based on runs allowed. In other words, an ace-level season is defined as a season worth at least five WAR as a starting pitcher within the six-year window. This gives me a sample of 99 pitcher-seasons, or about 17 a year, which sounds fine to me. These seasons will be compared against other, inferior starting pitcher-seasons, of at least 50 innings each.

The next step is the more complicated step, involving a little math. For every pitcher’s season, we have to figure out what the strike zone was like that they pitched to. It turns out this is actually pretty simple. Over on FanGraphs, we offer PITCHf/x-based plate-discipline data. You can see the rate of pitches thrown in the strike zone, and you can see the rate of swings at pitches out of the strike zone. FanGraphs also offers raw strike and pitch totals. From all this information, one can calculate an “expected strike” total.

This can then be compared to the actual strike total. If a pitcher got more actual strikes than expected strikes, it can be said he pitched to a more favorable zone. If a pitcher got fewer actual strikes than expected strikes, it can be said he pitched to a less favorable zone. The theory here is that ace-level pitchers end up with more actual strikes than expected strikes, because they get more calls off the edges.

For every pitcher-season, I calculated the difference between actual strikes and expected strikes, per 200 innings. So what do we find from the resulting data?

Read the rest on FoxSports.com.