The narrative concerning Josh Donaldson has been established for the moment. He was a piece in the deal that sent Rich Harden from Oakland to Chicago in July of 2008. He was converted to third base from catcher gradually between 2009 and -12, taking up the former position in a full-time capacity at some point in 2012. Generally speaking, he demonstrated some promising offensive and defensive skills, but was never considered a top prospect. Then, in 2013, he produced an MVP-type season.

That Donaldson outperformed expectations is a fact. How he did so, though — like, in what skills precisely he demonstrated improvement and to what degree he demonstrated it — this sort of thing merits further consideration, I’ll suggest.

To begin that further consideration, we start with following — namely, a collection of projections for Donaldson entering the 2013 season. While the methodology for calculating each of them is different, the principles informing all four are roughly the same, including some combination of past performance, allowance for the player’s current place along the aging curve, defensive ability, etc.

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Tonight, the Atlanta Braves will play the Dodgers with their season on the line. Down 2-1 in the NLDS, the Braves have to win tonight just to force a Game 5 — which would match them up against Clayton Kershaw again, so, yeah, this isn’t a great situation — and are turning to Freddy Garcia in this win-or-go-home game. Yes, the Freddy Garcia who turned 37 yesterday, and has had a season that could charitably be described as adventurous.

He went to spring training with the Padres on a minor league deal, but was cut loose after getting bombed on a regular basis in the Cactus League. The Orioles signed him to a minor league contract a few days later and gave him a month in Triple-A before calling him up at the beginning of May. He responded by throwing 50 disastrous innings, including a 5.77 ERA and 6.73 FIP, which got him sent back to Triple-A at the beginning of July. He hung out in the minors for a few months until the Braves picked him up at the end of August and brought him back to the big leagues when rosters expanded in September.

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What wasn’t surprising about Sunday’s game between the Dodgers and the Braves was that the Dodgers won. Not that the Braves are any sort of pushover, of course, but the Dodgers had to be considered the favorites. What was more surprising was the manner by which the Dodgers achieved their victory. Starter Hyun-Jin Ryu was removed after throwing just three innings, yielding a pair of two-run frames. But the Dodgers’ lineup chased opposing starter Julio Teheran before the end of the third, and it ultimately ended up a laugher. Not only did Teheran allow more than five runs for the first time all year; for the first time all year, he also lasted fewer than five innings.

Both Ryu and Teheran were making their first-ever starts in the playoffs, and each could’ve performed levels better. Ryu, at least, pitched in games of some import in Korea — Teheran hadn’t faced these stakes, and the TBS broadcast noted that he looked like he was pitching nervous. He was said to look timid and young, with the Dodgers taking considerable advantage. This is the time of year when authorities all over the place give a lot of importance to a player having played in the postseason in the past. It’s important, they say, for the player to have dealt with the intense, persistent pressure. I don’t think there’s any question that the playoffs have a bit of a different feel. At issue is whether that matters.

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On May 7th, Jarrod Parker woke up with a pain in his neck. He’d been dealing with it for a while, and it had a lot do with his 7.34 ERA and the fact that he was giving up more than two home runs per nine innings. Those dark days are long since gone, but it was the low point for Oakland’s Game Three starter.

On Saturday before Game Two, Oakland manager Bob Melvin addressed those struggles and identified how that injury most hindered Parker. Even if that injury is in his rear view mirror, learning more about it might provide viewers something to watch for in the early going in Game Three.

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Looking at it from a glass-is-half-full perspective, the Rays have the Red Sox right where they want them. Following last night’s 7-4 loss, Tampa Bay is one game away from elimination. Again.

Joe Maddon’s team has been thriving under pressure. In a string of win-or-go-home games leading up to the ALDS, the resilient Rays repeatedly won and went on.

Tomorrow, they do go home — to Tropicana Field — needing to do it again. It will be a tall task. Not only do they have to win three straight to stay alive, their gas tank is nearing empty. As much as Maddon denies his team is tired, they just crisscrossed the country to play 10 adrenaline-fueled games in five different cities. The Rays are gutsy, but they’re close to running on fumes.

Alex Cobb, who will take the mound in Game 3, admitted the travel and high-stakes environment are taking their toll. He also owned up to not knowing where he was when he woke up following his outstanding performance against Cleveland in Wednesday’s wildcard game. Read the rest of this entry »

“We know we’re going to strike out. That’s just a given with guys who have power. And we have a lot of guys who can hit the ball out of the park. And that kind of goes hand in hand. But you look at some of the studies — and our guys have looked at them — and there’s not a direct correlation with strikeouts and offense.”

— Atlanta general manager Frank Wren, interviewed by Jayson Stark on 2/18/13

This quote comes from Alex Remington’s piece on these very pages back in April. When the Braves finished constructing their roster — a roster similar to what we see now — there were questions as to whether the team would strike out too much to make a run at the postseason. Well, we’ve now reached the postseason, and the Braves are still here. And they’re still striking out too, averaging over 10 Ks a game so far. They also led the NL in home runs, an achievement they were expected to sniff given their lineup. This was kind of the plan from the beginning — strike out a fair amount, but counter that with a good deal of power.

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The game stories might end up being about Stephen Vogt and that’s fine. He got the big walk-off hit and he hasn’t been celebrated much so far in his baseball career. But, as with many big moments, the seeds that resulted in that wild finish were sown much earlier in the day.

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The postseason is off to a great start, with both National League Division Series tied at one game apiece. Later today, the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics will attempt to even their respective series. Barroom trivia aficionados may be interested to learn that the postseason has never started with all four series split at one game apiece. There is a roughly 25 percent chance of that happening today and if it does, TBS will have another fun fact to share in the next pregame show.

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Max Scherzer has a great changeup. His slider is sharp. He added a curve this year to keep lefties guessing. But early in games, he likes the fastball best. Friday night’s two-run, seven-inning start in the first game of the ALDS was just an extension of that affinity.

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Going into today’s Red Sox-Rays game, plate discipline and the strike zone figured to play prominent roles. They did, to a certain degree. Defense — or lack thereof — played a bigger one.

As FanGraphs readers know, Red Sox and Rays hitters are patient at the plate. No team in either league swung at a lower percentage of pitches out of the strike zone than Tampa Bay. Their 0-swing% was just 27.1. The Red Sox were third-lowest at 28.2.

The Rays were more aggressive in the strike zone. The Red Sox swung at 62.4 percent of strikes, the lowest in baseball. Tampa Bay’s 64.8 z-swing% placed them closer to the middle of the pack.

What would that mean for today’s ALDS Game One match-up? Red Sox starter Lester walked 2.83 batters per nine innings this year, but has been known to work long counts and build up high pitch counts. Tampa Bay starter Moore walked 4.59 and has been described as effectively wild.

Before the game, manager Joe Maddon said of Moore, “When he’s kind of like this controlled wildness, they don’t get hits. He may walk a couple of guys, but they don’t hit him. And sometimes he’ll get over the plate, which you’d perceive to be better command, and he gets hit. That’s the problem. He walks this different kind of tightrope.”

As it turned out, Moore — despite pitching better than his line score — walked the gangplank. Early on, it was Lester who was getting a sinking feeling. Not surprisingly, plate discipline and the strike zone came into play. Read the rest of this entry »