Gabe Kapler wrote a fascinating piece for WEEI today, in which he discusses the problems that will arise from the different ways players evaluate themselves versus how they’re evaluated by front offices. An excerpt:
Early on, every team and every game in baseball is interesting. For the first few weeks of the season, things feel so fresh, and things are so unpredictable, that you’re thirsty for any kind of action. As things progress, teams fall off the radar of interest. Fans start to focus more on the teams that might make the playoffs, and teams in basements continue to play largely un-discussed, save for the event of trade rumors. Few, then, would’ve been paying attention to the Mariners and Astros over the weekend, given their respective identities, but what the teams managed to accomplish on Saturday was unprecedented. And for all the talk about trades and the playoffs, it’s important to recognize that any kind of baseball can be interesting, and we shouldn’t forget it. You never know which games you might find remarkable.
A big part of the appeal of perfect games, or, I don’t know, cycles, is rarity. People love seeing things in baseball they don’t see very often. But rarity isn’t enough alone to make something worth talking about. Never before, in the recorded history of baseball, has a starting pitcher gone 4.2 innings, with four walks, two hits, and a strikeout. Not once. So many thousands of games. But if that happened tomorrow, no one would care, just like no one cares about a weird leaf on the ground. That leaf is unique, but really, it’s just another leaf. There needs to be some blend of rarity + achievement, and I think the Mariners/Astros game qualifies.
How differently do pitchers and catchers think? They work hand-in-hand, but do they approach pitch selection the same way? Do they interpret the quality of a pitcher’s stuff the same way? Do they see the same things when reading hitters?
I’ve posed that question(s) to a number of pitchers, catchers and coaches over the course of the season. Selections from those conversations will be featured here in the coming weeks. First up is Tampa Bay Rays bullpen coach Stan Boroski.
Currently in his fourth season with the Rays, Boroski understands the pitcher-catcher dynamic as well as anyone. He played both positions in the minor leagues — “I couldn’t hit” is Boroski’s explanation for moving to the mound — before joining the scouting and coaching ranks. He was a pitching coach in the Astros system before coming to Tampa Bay. Read the rest of this entry »
Everyone remembers Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. The duo pitched 11 years together in Brooklyn and in Los Angeles. Together, the pair helped the Dodgers reach the Fall Classic five times, three of which their team won. But there’s a good chance they wouldn’t have won their third and World Series title without the help of their third wheel, Claude Osteen.
One of just 56 players to debut in the majors at or before the age of 17, Osteen pitched 18 seasons for the Reds, Senators, Astros, Cardinals and White Sox — in addition to the Dodgers. It was there, in Los Angeles, where his presence was felt most. The Dodgers acquired Osteen in a trade with the Senators that included Frank Howard, so they didn’t exactly get him cheap. But the Dodgers certainly got their money’s worth, especially since it took several years before Howard became a star. Osteen, meanwhile, was a Dodger from 25 to 33 years old and spent the bulk that time outworking his competitors.
It was last offseason that the Royals picked up James Shields from the Rays in a controversial blockbuster. The Royals wanted to improve their pitching staff and take big steps toward the playoffs. The Rays were looking to reload with young cost controlled talent, as always, and they saw an offer they couldn’t pass up. Sure enough, the Royals are on pace to be improved by a few games. The Rays, too, are on pace for the same, as they haven’t missed Shields that much. FanGraphs was opposed to the Royals’ side of things, arguing they weren’t good enough to go for broke, and that in order to get better they also subtracted. The Royals, today, are 43-49. This is going to work as our background and setting.
With the trade deadline approaching, teams are having to self-identify as buyers or sellers. At either end, it’s all pretty apparent, but it gets more blurry in the middle, especially what with the still-new extra wild-card slot. Some teams might neither buy nor sell. Some teams might attempt both. You look at the Royals and you’d think they should shed, but talk to Dayton Moore and he’ll tell you you’re wrong. Moore hasn’t thrown in the towel on 2013, and he seems to suggest he’s most interested in adding, adding pieces of immediate value. So, buying. Dayton Moore seems to identify the Royals as a potential buyer.
Today, Derek Lowe announced he’s leaving baseball behind.
I’m officially no longer going to play the game… It’s still enjoyable, but the role I was having wasn’t fulfilling…
If you’re not playing, it’s completely self-explanatory. I’m not going to go to the Hall of Fame, so I don’t feel like I need to have a retirement speech. But I was able to play 17 years on some pretty cool teams and win a World Series. So, everyone’s got to stop playing at some point, and this is my time.
Allen Craig’s a really good player, mostly because he’s a really good hitter. He just ranked No. 40 in Dave’s Trade Value series. Allen Craig has a lot of good things going on, and here’s one of them: he’s been the league’s best hitter with runners in scoring position. According to Baseball-Reference, 334 active players have at least 250 career plate appearances with runners in scoring position. By batting average in the split, Joe Mauer is third, at .338. Joey Votto is second, at .347. Allen Craig is first, at .396. Not only is Craig in first; to drop into a tie with Votto, he’d have to go hitless in his next 43 such at-bats. I’m not claiming that Craig is unusually clutch, but so far, he’s hit at the right times, and his category lead is remarkable.
So we have to acknowledge that Craig is good. We have to do this, before discussing a way in which he’s been bad. A way in which he’s been worse than everyone else. Allen Craig is a league leader in multiple categories, and the one explored below isn’t something Craig is going to want to hear about.
Chris Davis, with 37 home runs so far this season, has been generating a lot of buzz lately — both on the field and more recently with some comments he made during the All-Star break. When he was asked about the all-time home run record, Davis said:
“In my opinion, 61 is the record, and I think most fans agree with me on that.”
I have no idea if most fans agree with him, but it probably shouldn’t be surprising that a guy within spitting distance of a 61 home run season would view that as the mark to beat — rather than 73 home runs, which is essentially out of range. So, just for fun, let’s figure out what Davis’ chances are of reaching Roger Maris.
At Tom Tango’s website, there was a discussion that tried to put a number on Davis’ chances of reaching that mark. Tango performed a “quick back-of-envelope calculation” to do so, but today, I’ll be providing you with an interactive tool that might make it easy for you to perform a more sophisticated calculation for situations like this (and many other types of situations).
Yes. We will do more of these. Because they are fun. On July 18th, we won’t have baseball to watch, and that will make this a support group meetup of sorts. Come talk to us about the first half of real baseball, or fantasy baseball, or about brewing, or about beer, or about life.
Thanks to all of these great writers that have agreed to come for this informal Q&A session. Ask for the FanGraphs event, as we’ll have our own space. Sorry youngsters, this is a 21 and over event.
July 18, 4pm — 8+pm, Fizz, Chicago
Eno Sarris (BeerGraphs, FanGraphs)
Michael Bates (NotGraphs, SBNation)
Carson Cistulli (FanGraphs)
Dayn Perry (FanGraphs, CBS Sports)
David Wiers (FanGraphs)
Bradley Woodrum (FanGraphs)
Cee Angi (SBNation)
T.K. Gore (CSNChicago/NBCSports)
Dan Hayes (CSNChicago)
Kevin Holden (CBS Milwaukee)
Harry Pavlidis (BrooksBaseball)
Sahadev Sharma (ESPNChicago)
Scott Skillings (STATS)
JJ Stankevitz (CSNChicago)
Matt Dennewitz (BeerGraphs, Pitchfork)
Greg Sasso (BeerGraphs)
J.R. Shirt (BeerGraphs)
Jeff Gross (Hardball Times, SaBEERmetrics)
If this were any other stat, it wouldn’t be worth a post. If this were instead “All-Star Break Home-Run Update,” it’d be a waste of your time, because you could simply just look up the stat on the FanGraphs leaderboards. They’re right up there! But, at the moment, FanGraphs doesn’t house and update any pitch-framing statistics, and while that could change in time, that’s the way things are today, meaning this post could have some substance. Most people can’t look this stuff up on their own, so I’m here to provide for you while crossing something off my weekly quota. Everybody wins.
FanGraphs is pretty selective for the intellectually curious. And, of course, baseball fans, and intellectually curious baseball fans have generally been interested in pitch-framing research. It’s just another thing that players can be good or bad at, so fans want to know where their catchers rank. Right now, we have a little break in regular-season action, so it seemed like a good time to post the latest numbers, through the middle of July. It was either this or a .gif post about Yasiel Puig and no there weren’t any other options. I’ll give a quick explanation, before the data.
