In yesterday’s post on the early home run trend of 2013, I noted that strikeout rate was up again, as it has been for a while. At this point, the continuing rise of strikeout rate isn’t a new story, and I think most of you are probably aware of the fact that Major League Baseball is essentially setting a new record high for league average K% each season.

One of the main theories that is espoused for why strikeout rate is ever increasing is the simultaneous increase in pitcher velocity. It used to be that Randy Johnson was a freak because he could touch 100 mph with his fastball, but now it seems like every team in baseball has a guy who can hit that mark. While we don’t have historical velocity data, we do have PITCHf/x velocity data since 2007, and BIS velocity data going back to 2002. While there are some differences due to the classifications of pitch types, both support the idea of rising velocity.

The BIS data has the average fastball going from 89.9 in 2002 to a peak of 91.6 last year, a nearly 2 mph rise in the average fastball speed over the last 11 years. We know that velocity and strikeout rate are highly correlated, so a league wide rise in the speed of pitches would explain why strikeout rate keeps going up and up.

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The other day, Marty Foster got himself in the headlines when he made a controversial call to end a close game between the Rays and the Rangers. “Controversial” is a more charitable way of saying “bad”. On that night, Foster’s judgment helped the Rangers win. On Wednesday afternoon, Foster’s judgment helped the Rays win instead, but this hasn’t generated nearly the headlines, because it’s hardly controversial. Allow me to briefly set the scene, with Foster umpiring at second base.

The Rays were leading the Rangers 2-0 in the bottom of the sixth, but the Rangers had the bases loaded with only one out. Mitch Moreland subsequently grounded to Kelly Johnson, and Johnson threw to Yunel Escobar at second in an effort to start a double play. Escobar double-pumped while throwing to first, though, and Moreland beat the throw, allowing a run to score. Yet the run was immediately erased and a double play was awarded. The Rangers wound up losing by that same 2-0 score. Foster awarded the double play, and Foster was not wrong to do so.

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The party line is defensive coverage in the three-four hole, but it probably isn’t that simple. Knowing Buck Showalter, some gamesmanship is at play as well.

The Baltimore manager has his first baseman, Chris Davis, playing a few steps off the bag when holding runners. Not just the slow-of-foot — all runners, all the time. The situation doesn’t matter. According to Orioles broadcaster Gary Thorne, the practice began in spring training and has been in place for every game since the start of the season.

Here, see for yourself, as Davis shuffles back to the bag on a pick-off attempt.

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It’s April 10th. Most teams have played eight games out of 162, or about 5% of their season schedule. You know it’s early. I know it’s early. Data from a little over a week of baseball is highly suspect, which is why you’ll see things like Coco Crisp with an .829 slugging percentage or Vernon Wells with a 206 wRC+. Over these kinds of samples, any player can look great or horrible. Even at the team level, the numbers don’t tell you much of anything.

However, there is one set of numbers that stabilize very quickly – overall league averages. While the variance among players and teams is large, early season data at the league level is actually highly correlated with overall seasonal averages, for pretty much any major number you want to look at. For instance, here’s April 2012 data compared with 2012 overall data for many of the pitching metrics we look at regularly here on FanGraphs:

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Between August 14 and August 17 in 2011, Giancarlo Stanton hit home runs in four consecutive games. One of baseball’s premier true power hitters, Stanton has never put together a longer streak, although in fairness his career is still just beginning. Between September 23 and September 27 in 2011, Adrian Beltre hit home runs in four consecutive games. Beltre is undeniably strong, but he’s never put together a longer streak. Troy Tulowitzki has topped out at four games. Matt Holliday has topped out at four games. Jose Bautista has topped out at four games. Ryan Howard has topped out at four games. Coco Crisp has topped out at four games, but the difference is that his streak is still active.

Five days ago, Crisp went yard off Brad Peacock. Four days ago, he went yard off Bud Norris. Three days ago, he went yard off Lucas Harrell. Yesterday, he went yard off C.J. Wilson. Crisp also has five doubles to his name in the early going, and it all adds up to a .343 average, a .829 slugging percentage, and a .486 ISO. That ISO presently ranks fifth in the league, between Mark Reynolds and Colby Rasmus. Justin Upton and Chris Davis, for the sake of your own curiosity, lead the way.

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In Chattanooga, Top-100 prospects Yasiel Puig and Zach Lee debuted against a Huntsville (Brewers) team with few prospects of note. On paper, both excelled with Puig reaching base in three of four plate appearances and Lee surrendering just one earned run across four innings of work. There’s a reason scouts don’t write reports from box scores though. While each impressed, both prospects still have work to do before the Dodgers come calling.

Videos after the jump. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m probably always going to remember Ryan Franklin for three on-field performances. One, as a starter in the minors, Franklin was involved in two consecutive no-hitters — the first one combined, the second one done by Franklin all on his own. Two, in April 2005, Franklin went head-to-head against Mark Buehrle in Chicago in a game between the Mariners and the White Sox, and it was all over in just 99 minutes. Three, I actually just have those two, because this is Ryan Franklin we’re talking about and I’m a little surprised I’ll remember him for anything. Anything, at least, having to do with his performance.

On that day in 2005, Franklin was a quick worker. Working in his favor is that he threw strikes and allowed plenty of contact. But he was opposing the very king of quick work, a guy who manages to spend so little time between pitches you’re reminded all over again of how much you can’t stand Jonathan Papelbon. I wouldn’t refer to Pace as an ability, per se, but in one statistical category, Buehrle is the undisputed leader.

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We’ve spent the past few weeks taking a look at combined rankings for each organization, going division-by-division. I wasn’t really sure what I was going to find, but my goal was to take a look at the two main overall aspects of a prospect – his talent/reasonable ceiling and his risk of getting there – and see how farm systems graded out. The traditional 1, 2, 3 ranking system is fine because we’re ultimately looking at an educated subjective process, but a simple list doesn’t show the audience where the real gaps lie and where there’s negligible difference. My hope was to begin to approach a way to see these differences, and while there is certainly room for improvement, I believe it has led to some interesting results.
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Wade Miley is one of those pitchers who just gets outs. The Arizona Diamondbacks lefthander doesn’t wow or dazzle, but that isn’t what matters. What does is results, and he got plenty of those last year in his rookie season. The 26-year-old left-hander won 16 games with a 3.33 ERA and 3.15 FIP.

How did he do it? Not with overpowering stuff. His primary pitch — which he threw over 70 percent of the time — was a fastball that averaged 91.1 mph. He struck out just 6.66 batters per nine innings. What he did is pound the strike zone and keep the ball in the yard. His walk rate was a sterling 1.71 and home run rate a Lilliputian 0.65.

Can he replicate those results this season? Only time will tell, but he’s off to a good start. In his first outing he allowed one run over six innings and got the win against the Brewers. He makes his second start this afternoon against the Pirates.

Miley talked about the secrets to his success, including his better-than-you-think-it-is stuff, during spring training.

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David Laurila: How do you get guys out?

Wade Miley: I trust my defense. There are seven guys behind me, and my catcher, so I go right after hitters. I challenge them with my best stuff and hope for the best.

I think that’s a pretty standard way to go about it. It’s what a lot of pitchers do — they attack hitters. They throw strikes and try not to give away free passes. When hitters put the ball in play, there are a bunch of guys out there to help you. You rely on your teammates.

DL: How good is your stuff?

WM: You tell me. I don’t really have an answer to that.

DL: Coming up through the system, you were overshadowed by pitchers who were said to have better stuff. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s nothing terribly surprising about the headline. The Marlins finished in last place in the National League East last season. They traded all of the marquee players over the winter, save for superstar Giancarlo Stanton, who is under team control until after the 2016 season. The team threatened to sue season-ticket holders who refused to pay their ticket invoice in a dispute over whether their view was obstructed. And a week before the season started, the Marlins had teamed with Groupon to offer two-for-the-price-of-one tickets for opening night against the Braves. Then the Marlins started the season on the road with a 1-5 record.

Still, when my colleague Jeff Sullivan snapped this photo just as the opening night was getting underway at Marlins Park, I was, well, surprised.

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