Archive for Effectively Wild

Effectively Wild Episode 1388: Rest Days

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s upcoming vacation and brief break from baseball, Chris Paddack’s demotion to High-A, the latest act of Clayton Kershaw’s career and the perils and possibilities of player aging, whether the home-run rate is too damn high, the state of the standings, what the trade market might look like under the unified trade deadline, and more.

Audio intro: Super Furry Animals, "Long Gone"
Audio outro: Bob Dylan, "Going, Going, Gone"

Link to Ben on Kershaw
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Effectively Wild Episode 1387: In Trout They Didn’t Trust

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about poor pronunciations, an oddity in Bash Brothers, a Byron Buxton hustle double, the running (but not running enough) Royals, whether to talk about and whether they did talk about the curiously contending Rangers, and a few takeaways from the Madison BumgarnerMax Muncy kerfuffle, then discuss several insights they gleaned from Keith Law’s oral history of how Mike Trout was (and wasn’t) drafted a decade ago.

Audio intro: Stephen Malkmus, "Ocean of Revenge"
Audio outro: The Dream Syndicate, "Recovery Mode"

Link to Buxton hustle double
Link to “Fire it through the internet” shirt
Link to Keith’s oral history
Link to Ben Reiter’s 2012 Trout draft story
Link to Ben’s 2019 scouting reports series
Part 1 of study on geographical bias in the draft
Part 2 of study on geographical bias in the draft
Link to Dollar Sign on the Muscle
Link to story of Sam spiriting away Baptista in The Only Rule
Link to Ben on the career of Trout’s father
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Effectively Wild Episode 1386: Amateur Hour

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Cubs signing Craig Kimbrel, ruminating about how he’ll help Chicago, why other teams may have held off, and why it took so long for his prolonged free agency to come to a close. Then (18:06) they bring on FanGraphs prospect experts Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen to analyze the amateur draft and modern development, touching on player picks and team approaches they liked or disliked, how their mock drafts held up, pitchers vs. position players, trends in the types of players selected, whether there’s more consensus among clubs about amateur prospects than there used to be, how data is changing the draft and development, whether technology is inclusive or exclusive, college pitch counts, 2018 draftees who’ve improved the most, whether prospects will be promoted more quickly than before, changing the time and location of the draft, the outlook for the 2020 amateur draft, the ETA for (and problems with) an international draft, and more (plus a Dallas Keuchel addendum).

Audio intro: Jim James, "Better Late Than Never"
Audio interstitial: Sparks, "Reinforcements"
Audio outro: Super Furry Animals, "The Gift That Keeps Giving"

Link to Rosenthal on the Cubs signing Kimbrel
Link to Rosenthal on other teams not signing Kimbrel
Link to Craig Edwards on the Kimbrel signing
Link to Craig’s draft-pick valuations
Link to Kiley and Eric’s first-round review
Link to Kiley and Eric’s draft odds and ends
Link to part one of Rany’s research on high-school hitters
Link to part two of Rany’s research on high-school hitters
Link to Kiley on hitter development in college
Link to Ben on pitcher development in college
Link to Gerald on 2019 college pitcher usage
Link to Eno on draft trends
Link to Kiley and Eric’s podcast on the international draft
Link to Trout and Ohtani as the new Bash Brothers
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Effectively Wild Episode 1385: Ask Not What WAR Can Do for You

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about the paucity of pitchers selected at the top of the draft, the Hall of Famers Mike Trout passed in career WAR in May, Trout’s quietly impressive season, whether WAR has helped Trout’s reputation more than Trout has helped WAR’s, the surprising names at the top of the 2019 WAR leaderboard for pitchers, and Andrew McCutchen’s season-ending ACL injury, then answer listener emails about baseball-inspired national holidays, what would happen if Max Scherzer insisted on batting cleanup, and the most inconsequential topics discussed on baseball broadcasts, plus an update on the pulling-pitchers-mid-plate-appearance approach and a Stat Blast on the lack of good hitters over 30 and whether old players are getting worse or young players are just getting better.

Audio intro: John Lennon, "Cleanup Time"
Audio outro: The Cardigans, "War"

Link to the amateur draft’s first-round results
Link to Ben on the decline of top-rated pro pitching prospects
Link to Sam on the Hall of Famers Trout passed in May
Link to Meg on Hamels
Link to Ben and Rob on old hitters and fastballs
Link to Rob on old hitters’ slow pace
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Effectively Wild Episode 1384: Welcome to The MVP Machine

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about whether it would make sense for one team to “blow up the draft” by ignoring the bonus slotting system for one year, paying a premium for the top amateur talent, and incurring the maximum financial penalty. Then they discuss Ben’s new book about baseball’s player-development revolution, The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players, which is out today. (Go get it now!)

Audio intro: The Tragically Hip, "Machine"
Audio outro: George Harrison, "Try Some, Buy Some"

Link to Passan on the MLB draft
Link to first excerpt from The MVP Machine
Link to Foley’s book-signing event
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Effectively Wild Episode 1383: Net Results

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Mariners’ recent run of ineptitude, why some teams talk to the media and whether there’s a moral obligation for teams to share information about preventing player injuries, a question from a fantasy player who’s aiming to compete in 2027, a Clayton Kershaw vs. Jacob deGrom matchup as non-must-see TV, and the aging of Kershaw compared to that of Felix Hernandez, then discuss the arguments against and for extending the protective netting in MLB ballparks to the foul lines (and mention a few FanGraphs upgrades).

Audio intro: Graham Parker, "Protection"
Audio outro: Dr. Dog, "How Long Must I Wait?"

Link to Ben on college player development
Link to Ben on protecting team secrets
Link to Elton question
Link to study on injuries from foul balls
Link to Travis on the uptick in fouls
Link to Rosenthal on extending the netting
Link to FanGraphs’ mock draft 3.0
Link to Kiley on college player development
Link to Foley’s book-signing event
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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Effectively Wild Episode 1382: Pitchus Interruptus

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about a small way in which Willians Astudillo made the world better, baseball as a conversational icebreaker, Cody Bellinger’s incredible WAR pace, whether Bellinger is overshadowing the rest of the Dodgers (and Clay Bellinger), and a few of 2019’s other breakout batters, present a Stat Blast about Statcast no-hitters (and Statcast hitting streaks), then answer listener emails about whether playoff odds are fair to teams that appear out of the race and why we don’t see more pitchers pulled in the middle of plate appearances.

Audio intro: The Flying Burrito Brothers, "Cody, Cody"
Audio outro: Stephen Malkmus, "The Hook"

Link to Petriello on Bellinger’s possibly best-ever season
Link to Sam on Bellinger’s possibly best-ever season
Link to Sam on Statcast no-hitters
Link to MLB.com on Statcast hitting streaks
Link to Sam on alternate timelines
Link to Sam on season simulations
Link to Sam on season simulations again
Link to Sam on out-of-contention teams
Link to Nate on FiveThirtyEight forecast calibration
Link to FiveThirtyEight forecast calibration interactive tool
Link to Ben on matchup decisions
Link to article about Girardi pitching change
Link to 2015 podcast conversation about Girardi pitching change
Link to Foley’s book-signing event
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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Effectively Wild Episode 1381: Minnesota Surprise

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about the Rays’ four-man outfield against Cavan Biggio and the gradual ascendance of four-man outfields across the league, Sam’s belated thoughts on the Mets and baseball in Avengers: Endgame, a few underappreciated aspects of the late Bill Buckner’s career, and the record number of MLB debuts this decade by sons of former big leaguers (including the return of star-caliber sons), then discuss the origins and sustainability of the Minnesota Twins’ best-in-baseball start to the season, what makes the Twins an entertaining team, Cleveland’s comparatively disastrous first two months, and more.

Audio intro: Garcia Peoples, "Four Walls"
Audio outro: Weezer, "Trampoline"

Link to picture of four-man outfield against Biggio
Link to article about Biggio’s swing change
Link to four-man-outfield instances per season
Link to Ben on the history of four-man outfields
Link to Buckner on the Fielding Runs leaderboard
Link to Buckner on the Defensive WAR leaderboard
Link to examples of the Mets in post-apocalyptic movies
Link to Travis on MLB fathers and sons
Link to Stubbs interview episode
Link to Foley’s book-signing event
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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Effectively Wild Episode 1380: Baseball is Better, but Also Worse

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about snow in Colorado, the Rockies and the decline of Kyle Freeland, and the new-look Lucas Giolito and the White Sox rebuild, then discuss the state of the standings and the number of teams out of contention, touching on how the bad teams got that way, the impact of losing on attendance, the merits of rebuilding, the struggles of the Indians and Nationals (and the success of the Twins), the frequency of blowouts, Mike Trout leading the league in WAR, and consuming the season via players instead of via teams, and more.

Audio intro: Vampire Weekend, "Spring Snow"
Audio outro: The Proper Ornaments, "Who Thought"

Link to THT piece on Coors Field
Link to Freeland interview episode
Link to Devan on Giolito
Link to video of Giolito mechanics
Link to Eaton-Frazier feud explainer
Link to Rob Arthur on bad teams being out of the race
Link to Rob Arthur on losing and attendance
Link to Rob Mains on the decline of comebacks
Link to Jay on Cleveland’s offense
Link to Devan on the Memorial Day checkpoint
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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Effectively Wild Episode 1379: There Are Other Leagues Than These

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Robinson Cano hurting himself hustling, Chris Carter dominating the Mexican League, the incredible continuing career of Ruben Rivera, pop-up dekes, a possible fun fact involving Orioles homers, the return of Ryan Feierabend (and an uncommon complete game), multiple improvements for instant replay review, and the significance of Carter Stewart signing with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of the NPB, then answer listener emails about using Statcast for fair/foul calls, the most unique lineups in a single season (and league-wide unique-lineup creep, plus the most painful thing ever to happen in baseball history), and a shift in which the pitcher covers first, plus a Stat Blast about the gradual disappearance of games with more walks than strikeouts.

Audio intro: Run-DMC, "Hit it Run"
Audio outro: Jenny Lewis, "On the Line"

Link to Ben on the cost of Cano not hustling
Link to GIF of Cano’s injury
Link to video of Carter
Link to Mexican League leaderboard
Link to Rivera’s bottomless B-Ref page
Link to Passan on the Mexican League
Link to Jay on Feierabend’s knuckleball
Link to Kiley on Stewart and Boras
Link to Passan on Stewart
Link to KG on Boras loopholes
Link to lineups data
Link to info on teams maximizing minor-league options
Link to video of Colon vs. Gordon
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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