Dodgers Snag Betts in Three-Way Blockbuster
The long-awaited Mookie Betts trade came to pass Tuesday evening, with the 2018 American League MVP heading to Chavez Ravine in a three-way trade that folded the Minnesota Twins into the mix. A free agent at the end of the 2020 season, Betts adds even more heft to a Dodgers team that won 106 games in 2019.
Also heading to the Dodgers is David Price, who went 7-5 with a 4.28 ERA and a 3.62 FIP in 22 starts for the Red Sox in 2019, accumulating 2.3 WAR in 107.1 innings. It’s a bit unusual to see a player of Price’s reputation essentially become a salary dump in a larger trade, but his recent injury history made the $96 million owed to him over the next three years a daunting prospect for Boston to pick up. While the Dodgers no doubt expect to see real contributions from Price, they likely see the money owed to him as a significant chunk of what they’re “trading” for Betts.
The Dodgers were determined to not give up any of their elite prospects in a Betts trade and that’s exactly what they managed to do. Alex Verdugo took a giant step forward in 2019 and hit .294/.342/.475, good for 2.2 WAR for Los Angeles. With Betts and Cody Bellinger in the outfield, A.J. Pollock under contract, and the team still retaining Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernandez (Joc Pederson is leaving in a separate trade), a very good argument can be made that Verdugo was simply more expendable than Gavin Lux or Dustin May.
Since three teams in a trade is more fun than two, the Twins also got involved, picking up Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers and sending pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to Boston. Graterol’s a good prospect, but was likely to end up in releif for the Twins, and with the team in win-now mode, a dependable-if-unexciting starting pitcher who can be trusted to throw a few innings out of pen has greater short-term utility. Minnesota needed another starting pitcher and they got one.
Depending on how much of Price’s contract the Red Sox cover, subtracting Maeda and Pederson may allow the Dodgers to stay under the luxury tax threshold for 2020, even with Betts’ and Price’s salaries included; it seems unlikely that the team would have dealt Pederson only to end up slightly above the first CBT threshold, though it’s possible they sought relief from the second. This is an important consideration in 2020 baseball because whether we (or the MLBPA) like it or not, teams are treating the luxury tax system as a soft salary cap. With the effort to get under this threshold, one can understand why this trade needed to percolate for a week; the auxiliary Pederson-to-Angels trade, along with including the Twins, gave this trade a lot of moving parts.
The Red Sox will also make it under the luxury tax threshold for 2020, resetting their penalties. This was one of their primary goals this offseason. The loss on the field is real, however. As valuable as the years of Verdugo and Graterol are, Boston likely loses about four wins in their right field downgrade and even though Price was iffy, the team’s starting pitching has very little in the way of depth. Boston looks like an 86-89 win team on paper right now and while those types of teams make the playoffs all the time, they do need some luck.
All the below projections reflect the new teams. As Graterol’s role in Boston is unknown, I asked ZiPS to project him as a reliever in 2020 and then a starting pitcher from 2021 on.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | .294 | .376 | .540 | 605 | 125 | 178 | 39 | 4 | 34 | 96 | 79 | 96 | 21 | 141 | 11 | 6.7 |
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 9 | 6 | 3.74 | 23 | 23 | 130.0 | 118 | 19 | 33 | 135 | 111 | 2.2 |
| 2021 | 8 | 6 | 3.90 | 21 | 21 | 115.3 | 108 | 18 | 30 | 117 | 106 | 1.8 |
| 2022 | 7 | 6 | 3.97 | 21 | 20 | 113.3 | 108 | 18 | 30 | 113 | 105 | 1.6 |
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | .289 | .348 | .441 | 429 | 55 | 124 | 28 | 2 | 11 | 53 | 39 | 64 | 7 | 106 | 4 | 1.9 |
| 2021 | .289 | .354 | .457 | 418 | 56 | 121 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 42 | 66 | 7 | 112 | 4 | 2.2 |
| 2022 | .288 | .357 | .462 | 420 | 57 | 121 | 30 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 45 | 69 | 7 | 114 | 3 | 2.3 |
| 2023 | .285 | .355 | .457 | 418 | 57 | 119 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 46 | 71 | 6 | 112 | 3 | 2.1 |
| 2024 | .283 | .355 | .459 | 407 | 55 | 115 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 46 | 71 | 6 | 113 | 3 | 2.1 |
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 10 | 8 | 4.25 | 34 | 24 | 135.7 | 122 | 19 | 50 | 156 | 105 | 2.1 |
| 2021 | 9 | 7 | 4.29 | 31 | 22 | 121.7 | 110 | 18 | 45 | 140 | 104 | 1.8 |
| 2022 | 9 | 7 | 4.37 | 30 | 22 | 119.3 | 109 | 18 | 45 | 137 | 102 | 1.7 |
| 2023 | 8 | 7 | 4.38 | 28 | 20 | 111.0 | 101 | 17 | 42 | 127 | 102 | 1.6 |
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3 | 2 | 3.77 | 51 | 0 | 45.3 | 41 | 4 | 20 | 46 | 121 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 11 | 8 | 4.32 | 26 | 26 | 118.7 | 117 | 14 | 49 | 104 | 106 | 2.0 |
| 2022 | 10 | 8 | 4.28 | 26 | 26 | 115.7 | 113 | 13 | 47 | 103 | 107 | 2.0 |
| 2023 | 9 | 7 | 4.29 | 23 | 23 | 105.0 | 103 | 12 | 43 | 94 | 107 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 9 | 7 | 4.24 | 22 | 22 | 102.0 | 99 | 12 | 41 | 93 | 108 | 1.8 |
| 2025 | 9 | 7 | 4.21 | 22 | 22 | 98.3 | 94 | 12 | 40 | 91 | 108 | 1.8 |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
(2nd MVP candidate)
If the Dodgers are looking to move Betts, the Red Sox are probably a top destination. Big market to cover the cost, hole in the outfield, perfectly placed on the win curve – I can’t think of a better fit!
Thank you for making this Red Sox fan laugh this morning.
This does a great job of summing up how ludicrous this whole saga has been.
I’ve never seen more likes on a FG comment, and this is worthy of that
The Red Sox traded away (a projected) 6.5 wins in 2020 to save $12MM in luxury tax payments in 2020.
Plus any luxury tax payments they may have incurred post-2020 had they not gotten below the threshold with this deal.
That doesn’t account for the wins in 2021 and beyond they received in return or the money they saved on the portion of the Price contract they’re not paying.
You also have to count Betts’s actual salary (minus the part the Red Sox are still paying) in the figures.
Trade seems to heavily favor the Dodgers with reports of the Red Sox sending “significant” money over, though I suppose we’ll have to wait and see exactly how much they’re sending.
The quality of the return depends a lot on whether you share the skepticism of Verdugo that the projections do or believe 2019 was a real step forward. He put up the 2.2 war in 2019 in only 300 PA
If he’s that guy this deal looks a lot better.
For real though, if the dodgers are below the tax line the compensation pick for Betts himself will improve by 2 rounds.
Boston came out great if they really felt like cutting payroll. Verdugo is an FV50 per this site as is Graterol. Considering the Dodgers know Betts is a rental this seems like an excellent return.
It appears that Boston could have kept Maeda over Graterol if they preferred. I would have rather seen them go that route. The back end of the rotation is putrid. This would have given them a better chance to compete this year. Plus Maeda’s contract is amazing at $3.125M/year through 2023.
That’s Maeda’s base salary, but the deal also has up to $10M per year in incentives that are quite attainable and a $1M bonus if he’s traded.
The incentives are:
– $6.5M annually in performance bonuses based on games started: $1M each 15, 20 GS. $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 GS.
– $3.5M annually in performance bonuses based on innings pitched: $250,000 each for 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190 IP. $750,000 200 IP
Ah, good point. The incentives do skew things a little more in the other direction, although, I would still take Maeda as the Sox have a borderline playoff caliber team, and the upgrade from their #5 starter (not even sure who that is) to Maeda is vast. Graterol has some good upside but it’s very unlikely he’s a reliable starter this year and, for better or worse, he has a wide range of outcomes.
Well keep in mind, the Red Sox bullpen is spectacularly dreadful. Graterol reinforces a Workman/Barnes/Brasier backend of the bullpen.
Also the Red Sox picked up Perez for $6.5 M and a ’21 club option. Steamer has him at 1.8 wins so while Perez is a little costlier and has a bit less value, I am sure the Red Sox are happier with Graterol + Perez than two backend starters.
The Red Sox bullpen was 5th in WAR and 1st in K/9 last season
Excellent point if they thought they could move Betts and still compete. But, I think they always knew that wasn’t really possible, particularly after Cole signed. So Graterol and getting below that cap at this instant makes a lot of sense. Heck, now that they’ve reset their tax maybe they jump into the bidding for Betts after the season.
If I were a Red Sox fan I would be so pissed right now, the fan base has done nothing but support the team. Red Sox fans are rabid, they sell out every game get great TV ratings and buy everything Red Sox related and as a thanks the team trades a top 5 player all in the sake of saving money. smh
I am a Red Sox fan and a very rabid one at that and I am not pissed at the Red Sox at all. They made very realistic, good faith, efforts to sign Mookie but he was having none of it. Faced with that situation the Red Sox made the proper choice and got a decent return for a one year rental. The 2021 Red Sox will look a lot better with Verdugo and Graterol than they would have with none of the three players involved on the team.
If you wanna drink the cool-aid thats your perspective.
Well, look at it this way. The emotional wrench is losing Mookie for a year. (A year in which, even with Mookie, we’re probably projected to come third in the ALE.) The returns on projected WAR? 6 + 7 out plays 11 + 10 in, basically.
And, if you follow Alex Speier’s argument (and I do), resetting Da Tax is worth around $90 million.
It’s hard to argue against the numbers.
And it’s exactly what I’d expect a smart guy like Bloom to do.
And I still hate it.
Again, if you wanna drink the cool-aid thats your perspective.
Sox have traded away an all-world right fielder for cash considerations once before, worked out fine
Nice sarcasm, although technically the Red Sox were using that particular player mostly as an ace pitcher.
I get that Maeda, with his minuscule contractual commitments, is a huge value, but as a Twins fan I can’t help but be bummed to switch out one of the more exciting pitching prospects to come through the system in a while. Maeda also presumably still has those weird medicals that got him the $3/yr contract in the first place.
Sooo, ZIPS seems to think that the Twins exchanged two extra years of control over Graterol for the extra .9 WAR they’ll get over the life of Maeda’s contract.
Well paint me enthusiastic.
Those extra wins this season matter a lot more to the Twins right now than projected future performance of a maybe bullpen piece.
ZiPS still thinks Graterol is a starter. The chances he ends up a starter long-term are very, very slim.
More than a wee bit premature to make that statement. I will wait to see what he shows on the bump, the hated eye test, rather than take the wild guess from a brain dead computer’s crunched numbers.
There is no comparing Graterol with a proven major league starter like Maeda. The Twins are looking at a shot at the title right now, not next year or the year after. Even then I would want Maeda who is signed through 2023. In 2019 he allowed only 114 hits in 153 innings while striking out 9.9/9. that is a very solid pitcher.
On a purely emotional level I’m still kinda turned off by how nakedly cynical this is— isn’t the point of all this to win games? Why’s the second-most valuable team in the league trading a MVP-level talent to get under the tax? That said, I guess dumping Price’s contract and getting Verdugo makes this about as good a deal as the Sox could’ve expected given the circumstances.
Well…….the Astros.
Ah yes, the team that was at the center of this massive, franchise-altering deal…
…this article is a retrospective about the Verlander trade, right?
Why no Pederson projection here ?
Treating that as a separate trade entry as there are still particulars to work out!
I think it’s Dave Dombrowski’s fault, in the main. I like all the teams involved and it’s a pretty fun trade. I don’t know what happened between the Red Sox and Betts, but you’re trading the contract not the player. Price was not a very good one so they decided to cut bait. A little more of the tarnish coming off that 2018 championship though.
Nah.
If you’re going that route you have to blame ownership. When you hire DD you know exactly what you’re getting.
Exactly true. Premier free agents, shrewd trades for win-now players, and utter razing of the farm system to make those trades.
Plus giant contract extensions a year before necessary also seem to be Dombroski standards moves.
When one of the largest markets trades away the 2nd best player in baseball and essentially throws their season away just to save some money…it’s just not a good look for baseball. The next CBA is going involve some major changes to the game.
As it should. The greed and cynicism of the owners needs to seriously be put in check
Not possible. The value of team increases far beyond the year in and year out team revenues vs. expenses. They squeeze pennies just out of habit. Heck, Frank McCourt borrowed the money from Fox to buy the Dodgers from Fox, then defrauded the fans by raising prices, gutting the farm system, and diverting team revenue to his family. After all of that his punishment was a one BILLION dollar payoff
Even the largest markets can find themselves overextending their finances if they’re not careful enough. Would you rather they be able to cover up all their recent past mistakes by just buying their way into the playoffs?
That’s an incredibly naive way of viewing this trade.
I truly don’t believe it would be possible for John Henry to overextend his finances unless he, like, purchased the entire state of Massachusetts.
If we lived in such a world where it could happen, his net worth is such that he could purchase 59% of the Yankees by himself, going by Forbes’ valuation.
Chaim Bloom won this trade. His bosses wanted less payroll and more prospects. Verdugo and Graterol both have real upside. After taxes, he shed at least $45 million in payroll this year. To Boston fans, if you’ve never seen Graterol pitch, you’re in for a treat.
The Dodgers and Twins weren’t duped. This could turn out to be a plus trade for all three teams. Every GM involved has shown some balls.
Depending on the Pederson trade, I think Dodgers also come out REALLY ahead.
Maeda isn’t irreplaceable especially given the Dodgers’ depth.
They get anoter legit MVP candidate.
But most of all, they kept the top 3-5 rated farm in the league mostly intact. Kept all of Lux, May, Ruiz, Gray, Downs and probably Gonsolin.
And one of Urias, May, Gonsolin, and lesser chance but one of Wood or Nelson could very well replace Maeda’s production in the Dodgers roster next year.
At which point Price can be moved for prospects because of the Boston cash subsidy.
At this point both the Dodgers and Yankees are being ridiculously well run.
We may be in for a run of NY-LA WS.
The deal looks fine on pure values with Price worth about negative $35M in surplus value, Betts +$30M so it’s basically a cash for prospect capital swap.
But it just makes no sense to me with the Red Sox competitive window. I don’t get why you don’t take a run at it this year. If Sale’s elbow holds up your probably a wild card favorite, and anything can happen in the playoffs.
These prospects aren’t going to make them much better in 2021. They’re out of Price’s dead money but still have negative surplus value in Eovaldi, Pedroia, and maybe Sale (health depending). The farm system is barren. The next 2-3 years looked like a rebuild anyway, they should have gone for broke this season.
maybe they arent so optimistic about sale’s health behind closed doors
That would be the best justification for the way they’ve behaved this offseason. But, if that’s the case they should get him under the knife for Tommy John.
Angels won the night, Pederson acquired for nothing in reality.
Rengifo is sneaky good.
love Pages too
You think the team that got Peterson is the winner of this trade and not the team that just traded for a top 5 player in baseball?
I think I like this trade for Minnesota the most. Their rotation needed an upgrade and maeda is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball
I looked at the 2019 Twins relief pitching to find a flaw in your rationale but they posted a league-best 3.92 FIP and #3 ranked 7.3 WAR. I certainly did not expect that! Rogers/May/Duffey with a full season of Stashak and Romero should be fun.
So Zips thinks Mookie will hit better in Dodger Stadium than he would’ve in Fenway?? And losing 18 games against the Orioles?
I also don’t get the nice increase in the scoring stats. Yeah he’s in another really nice lineup, but you can’t really do any better than hitting in front of Bogaerts/Devers/JMart. And he’ll now be batting right behind the pitcher’s spot. When was the last time an NL leadoff hitter drove in 96 runs? Man, will I take the under on Zips here.
Bellinger/Muncy/Turner can be every bit as good as that Red Sox trio if Turner can stave off decline for another year. Acuña had 78 RBI in 118 games as a leadoff hitter, so I don’t think the projection’s too outlandish— batting behind the pitcher hurts but the NL’s a weaker league and the Dodgers lineup is deep.
I don’t think the NL is the weaker league anymore. They outplayed the AL in interleague play last year and have only 4 teams (Marlins, Pirates, Giants, and Rockies) that aren’t considered legitimate contenders for 2020.
Fair, but Mookie’s gonna play 38 games against two of those four teams, and the Padres/DBacks are worse than the Yankees/Rays. All told, I don’t think it’s unreasonable for him to be projected to match his numbers with the Red Sox.
AFAICT, ZIPS is batting order agnostic.
I also sure don’t get the projected playing time for Verdugo. Not a soul blocking him in Boston for this season, and isn’t 500- PAs mighty low for a 1 WAR/230 ABs outfielder? (sincerely asking on that last part there, just seems low to me but is it historically so?)
ZiPS doesn’t know about his role change.
Betts for Verdugo, I don’t recall this showing up in any of the “predicted” trade scenarios. Pederson & Maeda = salary wash for Price. Dodgers keep all its prospects. Pederson was also on his last yr. before FA. Love this FO.
I think Sox fans should be kinda pissy towards ownership at this point. People forget Price was terrific in the first half, after being a huge factor in the WS. He was one of the few things keeping the team in the race as long as it was. They dropped all those games in a row right around the trade deadline, and then we had a Fortnite injury…
He reads a lot to me like a pitcher with ace talent who has some sort of long term issue or half tank kinda thing going on, where he’s just not gonna spend bullets when the season’s already over. Pour it all on to get the title, because you play for titles, not 86 wins instead of 84, and now you’re out for most of next year.
In general, I don’t like trading contracted players when their value can’t go much lower. Also, if we’re going to rebuild/retool, I’d rather ride out the big contracts and trade the guys entering arb years. That’s peak TB mode. They have much higher market value than trying to staple a 30m+ AAV player to an elite rental. EdRo and Beni are the guys that come to mind.
This team was/is pretty screwed for the medium term – 2-4 years out – almost no matter what it does
He’s 34 with an injury history. It’s unlikely that the next three years are going to be kind.
But yeah, I agree that this team is not in the best position on the aging curve, which is pretty weird to say with a team that has Devers and Bogaerts. They made some weird decisions and their farm isn’t getting any better with possible penalties coming down. I think this trade made a lot of sense. Chaim should start collecting international money.
Projecting Betts to hit a career high 34 HR is very aggressive especially considering Fenway is better for righty home runs.
What the Wall giveth on short fly balls down the line, the Wall taketh away on medium launch angle “barrels” from left to left-center. IIRC, Dodger Stadium’s power alleys are actually hitter-friendly. I see the change in parks as a wash for Mookie’s HR totals.
MLB might really need a work stoppage to rework the CBT and seriously rethink player compensation. This is a poor package for a player as good as Betts. Boston potential contributors but that’s about it.
What does player compensation have to do with what the Red Sox got in return, unless you mean to say that they could have kept him if only his salary were lower?
Who was supposed to make a better offer? Boston got what Boston got because they had a singular goal, which was not to get better. They wanted to get cheaper and they accomplished exactly that, getting a replacement right fielder and an interesting pitcher to boot.
I’m not sure your point. Betts was only on a 1 year deal — this seems super fair, if not a lot of value for the BoSox. Trades aren’t for the player, they’re for the contract.
The Red Sox as presently constituted are in no way an 86-89 win team. Get that out of your heads. They have zero pitching beyond Chris Sale, IF he manages to avoid surgery, and that’s a huge if. The farm system is barren thanks to Dave Dombrowski. They lost one of the best young managers in the game. If this team equals last year’s 84 wins, I’ll be surprised. Let’s revisit the above at the end of the year. As Charles Barkley says, I may be wrong, but I doubt it. But please, feel free to roast me here at the end of the season if the Red Sox get to 86 wins. They’re in rebuild mode, but that’s something they’ll never admit to. Gotta keep those pink hats in the seats buying their $12 Fenway Franks. Maybe if everything goes right they can contend by 2025?
I can’t stress this enough: Mookie NEVER intended to stay in Boston. It was never about the money, he kept moving the goalposts. It was simply about the city. For whatever reason, he never liked it there. Period. End of story. I don’t care what anyone else has been saying. Chaim Bloom did what he had to do. Betts is a highly intelligent man. I’m sure he’s aware how Fenway was seemingly built for him. He’s a career .315 hitter at Fenway, .285 on the road. Plus, he got to face Baltimore almost 20 times a year. I’m also sure he’s aware that Dodger Stadium will hugely suppress his batting stats and will take .020 off his average and more like .050 off his ISO. His numbers will look something like this: .275 – 100R – 22HR – 80RBI – 25SB. Those are NOT the numbers you want when you’re going to ask for $420m over 10-12 years. For all these reasons, I also believe Mookie is one and done in LA. You heard it here first.
I’m glad I don’t have Chaim Bloom’s job. If he does what he knows is right for the long view, the fans will turn on him quickly, and this ownership group will be right behind them, but with pitchforks. My personal opinion is that now that Betts and Price are gone, Bloom should move Sale before the inevitable elbow or shoulder injury resurfaces. Look at it this way. Are the Red Sox going to contend for the World Series this year? Next? No and no. So with or without Sale, they’ll be on the outside looking in. At Sale’s $25m contract, a bargain if he somehow reverts to being the *old* Chris Sale,, there ought to be several teams who’d love to have him and be willing to part with the prospects the Red Sox need to start rebuilding their farm system. And rebuilding the farm system and (god awful) scouting department should be job one.
The 2025 part is hilarious, and maybe that alone is ludicrous enough to deserve minusing. (and maybe folks stopped reading at that point??) Otherwise, this is quite spot on.
So we disagree about when the Red Sox will next be able to seriously contend. That’s cool. Everyone thinks differently. May I ask why you think they will still be able to contend this year, or what year you viably consider them to rebuild and contend by? Basically, I’m asking you to convince me. Maybe you’re seeing something I ‘m not.
‘If everything goes right” they’ll contend this year, easily. It’s pretty much entirely your hyperbole that I think we all find offputting.
“If everything goes right” any team will contend within 5 years. As for the BoSox, they have very valuable trade chips in Bogaerts/Devers/ERod. They’ve got $$$ up the wazoo, particularly now that they’ve reset the luxury tax. They know quite well where and what they currently are, as shown by this trade. By 2025 they’ll be back to being the 3rd best franchise in MLB. They’re about to enter a fallow period? 90% of us agree there. You’re writing about them like they’re the Tigers/Royals..
> The Red Sox as presently constituted are in no way an 86-89 win team
What kind of odds would you require to put down a bet on this? Because I’d say there’s at least a 10-20% chance, even being pessimistic, that’s how good they are. Your use of “in no way” is either hyperbole that weakens your comment, or indicates that we differ enough in our estimates that a wager would be in my advantage.
> His numbers will look something like this: .275 – 100R – 22HR – 80RBI – 25SB. Those are NOT the numbers you want when you’re going to ask for $420m over 10-12 years.
Every team in baseball understands park factors these days.
>I can’t stress this enough: Mookie NEVER intended to stay in Boston. It was never about the money, he kept moving the goalposts. It was simply about the city. For whatever reason, he never liked it there. Period. End of story. I don’t care what anyone else has been saying
There is a lot of projection into the head of a man that I’m assuming you’ve never spoken with. And despite the fact the only possible evidence is what Betts or other people have said, you boldly dismiss the only available evidence.
It sounds like you’re pretty hyped up on your own opinions. I recommend reading a book like Annie Duke’s “Thinking in Bets” to learn ways to be more accurate and make better decisions.
In his defense, local media still don’t understand park factors -doesn’t help them at all sell ads – and monster contracts are still driven in part by local media pushing the envelope such that you push in those last 10s of millions rather than the other team. And owners pushing their GM to go that final mile so they can bask in the local media adulation. So for the absolute biggest contracts, raw numbers do still matter some.
And Mookie’s attitude on Boston clearly was such that he wasn’t re-signing there short of their having the highest bid come 2021. That’s the only available evidence as to whatever Mookie thinks of Boston as a city, and probably all you need to know from a decisionmaking standpoint.
Honestly, if you were in a position to where you knew there was going to be nationwide interest in your services, and had the ability to put your roots down practically wherever you want…why in hell would you settle for the only team you were allowed to play for previously without at least exploring other opportunities, unless you just absolutely love the city?
In the end, most cities are essentially the same – traffic, tons of big-box stores. Strip malls look pretty much the same wherever you go. So yeah, you go where the money is, or maybe for natural or cultural attractions, or weather, or where you’re not looking at your team thinking, “Damn, we’re at the luxury tax so I’m not getting paid and we’re not getting any help and we’re looking up at two teams just in our division and our minor league talent is nonexistent.”
If this turns out like the Bagwell deal, then yikes.
The Bagwell deal was made when he was a minor leaguer, and before he had ever shown signs of having power. At the time, no one in the Red Sox organization saw him becoming anything more than a fringe major leaguer. Of course, no one saw him bulking up via steroids starting in 1994 either. Regardless, with the Betts deal we’re talking about a guy with 5 years of proven MLB ability, to say the least, and a perennial MVP candidate to state the facts.
These deals are in no way comparable to each other.
The point was will it turn out extremely lopsided like the Bagwell deal
We’ll re-visit in 6 years then. We should know by then, but I wouldn’t put up my house as collateral that Mookie will be worth more than 18-20 WAR over his 34-39 year-old seasons. It ain’t the steroid era any more.
> Of course, no one saw him bulking up via steroids starting in 1994 either.
There are two ways to interpret this sentence. The more accurate read (which I think is the opposite of your intent) is that literally nobody saw him using steroids in 1994 because there is no evidence that he was using back then. Thus, nobody saw him do something (because there’s not much evidence he did the thing).
Bill James right at that time projected Bagwell to win the League batting title his rookie season. So Bill sure thought he was a special bat. Defensively, Bagwell also projected to be either an iffy defender at 3rd or an outstanding one at 1st.
Y’know…I don’t think I’ve seen it mentioned in the comments anywhere, but the pending fallout from their own sign-stealing investigation probably figured heavily in the calculus to pull the trigger.
If they thought they were going to get a similar hammer as the Astros, forfeiting picks for multiple years when their system is already near-barren…well, one has to figure that they probably saw their window closing prematurely. Price and Sale are both getting longish in the tooth, Martinez won’t be able to keep it up for too many more years, Pedroia is probably all but finished.
They have Devers and Bogaerts, sure, but it’s just not enough. Not in the loaded East.
Betts was gone after the year anyway, and reinforcements weren’t going to be arriving from the minors if they needed help, not this year nor quite possibly the next few. It feels reasonable to get what you can for him in that kind of doomsday rationale, and while I’m not impressed with the return by any means, they could have done a lot worse than a younger right fielder that they can immediately plug in and a pitcher who could potentially stick in the rotation.
I agree with this entire post other than the fact that I don’t think potential penalties from the Commish affected their decision to trade Mookie. I think they did an honest self-evaluation and concluded they can’t contend given the state of their payroll (prior to the trade) and farm system. I forget which GM said it back in the day, but he told a player during contract negotiations “We lost with you, we can lose without you just as well and save money in the process”.
People forget, Mookie has been very Fenway-centric. I would venture a guess 90% of his HRs so far were to LF. Dodger Stadium will hurt him both power and average-wise, so I don’t think he re-signs there. But the Yankees… now there’s an intriguing option. He could be better there than in Fenway with that short RF porch. See 2019 DJ LeMahieu. But as with most long-term deals, what happens in years 6-12? What is Mookie at 33+ years old? Andrew McCutcheon? I love Cutch, but he’s not worth $35m a year as he’s aged, and he’s a good comp for Mookie.
All I can say is, buyer beware.
As a Sox fan a part of me is sick at the prospect of losing what I think is a sure fire hall of famer, from a team that maybe has the means to pay that player whatever he wants. That said, I don’t know what the Sox were supposed to do.
On the one hand Mookie would have signed for Trout money, reportedly, but balked at 10 for 300. So you’re talking about a guy who essentially was dead set on hitting the FA market with no loyalty to resigning with the Sox (and I’m not arguing he SHOULD have had loyalty about it).
Ok, so you’re the Red Sox….what are the odds that some owner somewhere is willing to make Mookie the “Trout” offer? Id say, the odds are very good. And if that happens then you have to either go above our max for him, or let him go. Clearly, this is an ownership group that simply didn’t feel like Mookie was worth Trout money (I happen to agree). So, this reality looms large and what you know then is that you have Mookie for one more year.
Do you push all your chips in and try to win- particularly in a year where the Yankees are so damn good it is likely you’ll lose the division with, or without, Mookie? Or, do you reset the tax so you can take your next big swing after this Yankee/Dodger mini-window.
I mean, these are hard decisions, but I rather think the Sox probably made the right call. I guess you can quibble with the return. I guess you could argue they could have foreseen this last year and dealt Mookie when he would have had way more value. However, I think given the reality of where we are today, I really have a hard time being too critical.
I’ll still miss rooting for Mookie, hell my handle says it all, but while I don’t begrudge him asking for Trout money the simple fact is he is NOT as good as Mike Trout and will never be as good as Mike Trout and I think any team that gives him Trout money will be offering a major overpay.
Sometimes there are no bad guys in these situations, just really hard calls. My gut says the Sox made the right call.
I also have a hard time complaining about an ownership group that has given my daughter, and I, 4 titles to enjoy, in the last 15 years, following a history where my father lived and died without seeing one.
Great comment; really well-measured.
The nice thing for you is that you don’t have to miss rooting for him – it’d just be under different circumstances. Ain’t the same, but better some than none.